PDA

View Full Version : March 2009 Ratings Predictions



Rincewind
18-01-2009, 04:41 PM
I've loaded the December ratings into the Ratings Estimation Calculator (http://www.bjcox.com/modules.php?name=Glicko_Calc). I also ran my Aust Open Performance through and it predicts that I'm shedding 47 points. :eek:

Not too bad for playing appalling chess for most of the tournament. My biggest disappointments were missing a few simple mates (against me) as in my games against Bolens and Javor. :wall:

Adamski
18-01-2009, 06:18 PM
Doing anything next Sat and Sun, RW? If not, make the drive up from the Gong again and play in NSWCA Aus day Weekender. maybe recoup some of those lost points.
In a number of games at Manly I thought you were unlucky to lose. Often I thought you were at least equal but arrived to your board later to see you in a losing position.

MichaelBaron
18-01-2009, 09:00 PM
Doing anything next Sat and Sun, RW? If not, make the drive up from the Gong again and play in NSWCA Aus day Weekender. maybe recoup some of those lost points.
In a number of games at Manly I thought you were unlucky to lose. Often I thought you were at least equal but arrived to your board later to see you in a losing position.

Adamski, pls focus on your own games ;) :owned:

Kevin Bonham
18-01-2009, 09:06 PM
Adamski, pls focus on your own games ;) :owned:

He didn't have any "own games" at Manly (except in the blitz); he was organising. ;)

Rincewind
19-01-2009, 07:41 AM
Doing anything next Sat and Sun, RW? If not, make the drive up from the Gong again and play in NSWCA Aus day Weekender. maybe recoup some of those lost points.
In a number of games at Manly I thought you were unlucky to lose. Often I thought you were at least equal but arrived to your board later to see you in a losing position.

Very busy this weekend unfortunately. But I did see the thread and get the fliers. IE The advertising is working. ;)

Ian Rout
19-01-2009, 08:59 AM
As I probably have played all the games that will be rated on the March list I can enter early this time.

First a quick excuse. In the equivalent game last quarter I predicted a rating "in the 1810s" and actually finished on 1799. Some people would say that I was wrong but the estimate didn't include Vikings (29-30 November) from which I lost some points and also didn't include a tournament which I expected would be submitted but wasn't. So allowing for this my estimate was probably in the right area.

This time I am picking up a swag of points from the Australian Open but losing a smaller swag from club tournaments. My back of envelope came up with 1836 and I just tried the Barry calculator which also gives 1836 so that looks like a good number to go for.

ER
20-01-2009, 04:14 AM
I will be sitting pretty on my 1361! he he he! :clap: If the NSW Aus Day (next weekend) will be included, I expect a dramatic fall! (:owned: I am only saying this to let them think I 'll be an easybeat! :P ) Cheers and many happy (rating points) returns to all!

Miranda
20-01-2009, 10:47 AM
I predict a (much-needed) rise in my rating... I won't give an estimate though!

Ian Murray
20-01-2009, 12:24 PM
I predict a (much-needed) rise in my rating... I won't give an estimate though!

+20 ELO from the Juniors vide attached. ACF/Glicko will vary some

that Caesar guy
22-01-2009, 02:40 PM
+20 ELO from the Juniors vide attached. ACF/Glicko will vary some
I predict that I better be getting more points soon, or I might be overtaken by everybody!:doh:

JM

MichaelBaron
22-01-2009, 10:51 PM
I will be sitting pretty on my 1361! he he he! :clap: If the NSW Aus Day (next weekend) will be included, I expect a dramatic fall! (:owned: I am only saying this to let them think I 'll be an easybeat! :P ) Cheers and many happy (rating points) returns to all!

You are much better than that...should be over 1500!!!

Kevin Bonham
22-01-2009, 10:53 PM
I haven't played any rated games yet and will play my only rated tournament this weekend.

If I was feeling really brave I could try to form a prediction based on the weather forecasts and my knowledge of the impact of different kinds of Northern Tasmanian weather on my playing strength!

AzureBlue
23-01-2009, 10:27 AM
I predict that my rating is screwed.
... no, more like dead and will get a '??????' after it lol. :lol:

chesstash
23-01-2009, 09:42 PM
I predict that my rating isnt gonna be good:evil: :evil: :evil:

Miranda
23-01-2009, 09:54 PM
+20 ELO from the Juniors vide attached. ACF/Glicko will vary some
Thanks Ian! :)

Ian Murray
24-01-2009, 11:34 AM
Thanks Ian! :)
My pleasure

Charged to your service account - you'll get the bill at the end of the month :)

C.Antolis
24-01-2009, 12:48 PM
According to the Barry's Glicko Calculator (http://www.bjcox.com/modules.php?name=Glicko_Calc) , it says my rating will be 2050 next period. :lol: :D Hopefully the calculator is accurate.

Kevin Bonham
25-01-2009, 11:10 PM
As I crashed towards an expected third loss for the weekend it occurred to me that my rating is like the stockmarket: has lost most of its value since the start of 2008, clearly wants to go down and nobody can really tell where the bottom will be.

Fortunately I somehow won that one (see swindle thread) but Barry's calculator says I am on for -7.

I often find my outcome to be slightly more dynamic (but not always) so I'll go for -9.

Basil
26-01-2009, 01:00 AM
it occurred to me that my rating is like the stockmarket: has lost most of its value since the start of 2008, clearly wants to go down and nobody can really tell where the bottom will be.
Paying $3 HCDs right there, folks!

MichaelBaron
26-01-2009, 07:55 PM
Going down to 2240-2250

that Caesar guy
27-01-2009, 09:20 AM
I think I'm going up to 2163! :D
But FIDE I'll only go up to 2120 something :(
Still, any increase is a good increase!

JM

MichaelBaron
27-01-2009, 09:45 AM
Going down to 2250 or something. On the other hand, the lower it gets, the easier it will be to pick up points from others :).

Adamski
27-01-2009, 11:33 AM
Hopefully I will go slightly up. My 3.5 out of 7 in NSWCA Aus Day weekender included one win against an over 1800 player and a draw against another one. Losses were to UNR Filipino (who proved strong - 6th =), 1793 and 2003 rated players. So hope to go up a little -say 1563?

Kevin Bonham
27-01-2009, 12:14 PM
Going down to 2250 or something. On the other hand, the lower it gets, the easier it will be to pick up points from others :).

It's always easy to adopt that philosophical approach; "hey, it's gone down so far now that people below me are now actually worth beating!"

Adamski
03-02-2009, 10:42 PM
Hopefully I will go slightly up. My 3.5 out of 7 in NSWCA Aus Day weekender included one win against an over 1800 player and a draw against another one. Losses were to UNR Filipino (who proved strong - 6th =), 1793 and 2003 rated players. So hope to go up a little -say 1563?I put the results I could into Barry's calculator on his web site at http://www.bjcox.com/modules.php?name=Glicko_Calc and was pleasantly surprised - 1576 predicted.

Kevin Bonham
03-02-2009, 10:44 PM
My ridiculously high rapid rating should go down a bit too; when you're outrating the field by 300+ points it's hard to get away with dropping anything and 1.5 points dropped from 14 games is just not on!

Shame that; I'd like to get it over 2100 someday.

Saragossa
03-02-2009, 10:45 PM
Need good results at the Tas champs to save any rating dignity.

Watto
05-02-2009, 03:07 PM
Hopefully I’ll go up 40 points or so. Some of my opponents weren’t ACF rated so depends a bit on what happens with them...