PDA

View Full Version : *December* 2008 ratings predictions



Kevin Bonham
26-08-2008, 12:49 AM
Vote early, vote often!

After tonight's loss and another in the same event I predict I will not be seeing the better side of the paltry figure 1900 for a while after Dec 1. :rolleyes:

Axiom
26-08-2008, 12:55 AM
Vote early, vote often!

After tonight's loss and another in the same event I predict I will not be seeing the better side of the paltry figure 1900 for a while after Dec 1. :rolleyes:
that means it must be time for our next game soon ! :)

Southpaw Jim
03-09-2008, 02:40 PM
Well, given that I've only 2 tournament games to go between now and December, I'm guessing I'll come back to around 1240-1250 depending on the last 2 results. With a bit of luck and a lot of hard work and practice, hopefully I'll crack 1400 in 2009! :hmm: :uhoh:

Spiny Norman
03-09-2008, 02:48 PM
Subject to my actually getting to play in our club championship (50:50 shot) I will predict a 40-point increase to just under 1600. (hey, what's wrong with having a positive attitude!)

Trent Parker
03-09-2008, 03:07 PM
I predict that I'll go closer to 1550 :D

Not aiming high...Haven't been studying.

kinderchocolate
03-09-2008, 03:12 PM
I haven't got my Sept rating yet. Waiting for it to be posted on the ACF web site.

Southpaw Jim
03-09-2008, 03:17 PM
The ratings on the ACF website have been updated today.

Garrett
03-09-2008, 04:38 PM
I haven't got my Sept rating yet. Waiting for it to be posted on the ACF web site.

If you are a Queenslander they are at the CAQ website (caq.org.au).

Rincewind
01-10-2008, 09:36 AM
I just finished my last rated club game for the year. Assuming I don't play in any weekenders between now and December 1, I can predict pretty confidently a increase of around 30 points. But still not on the better side of the paltry figure of 1900. ;)

BTW I seem to remember making a new years resolution to draw less games this year (without hurting my overall percentage). I can't seem to find it if I mentioned it in a post but I was able to do that this year so while my rating continues to oscillate around the same figure there is some progress. :)

bergil
01-10-2008, 11:56 AM
Probably go up 15-20 points after a soft run in the Parramatta Bag Pipe Open.

ER
22-11-2008, 07:09 AM
I think I did slightly better this quarter than the previous disastrous ones! I predict something close to 1340, a farcry from my highest 1570 a couple of years ago, but still something to cheer about! :P
Cheers and good luck!
PS Bill can I have a ^ or the one pointing down indication plz?

CameronD
22-11-2008, 07:21 AM
I'd guess 1475.

Kevin Bonham
22-11-2008, 11:58 AM
After tonight's loss and another in the same event I predict I will not be seeing the better side of the paltry figure 1900 for a while after Dec 1. :rolleyes:

There was a third loss in the same event so without even bothering to crunch the numbers I reckon I'll be down to about 1850. :rolleyes:

The paradoxical good news is that as my rating goes lower, some people become more worth beating and that makes me more motivated to do so.

Garvinator
22-11-2008, 12:37 PM
The paradoxical good news is that as my rating goes lower, some people become more worth beating and that makes me more motivated to do so.
Cue TonyD's name ;)

eclectic
22-11-2008, 12:49 PM
(barring any unexpected ratings recalibration) no play; no change

Kevin Bonham
22-11-2008, 12:55 PM
Cue TonyD's name ;)

Actually I was thinking of those rated somewhat below me. Even with my upcoming loss of points Tony will probably still be even more underrated than I will!

Miranda
22-11-2008, 01:37 PM
haha... I think my ACF is 680 or something like that...

Adamski
22-11-2008, 02:51 PM
I am hoping to go up a little from my current 1572. But I don't think I will hit my old 1636 this time. For one thing, I did not play enough.

MichaelBaron
23-11-2008, 01:31 PM
I predict mine will be down to 2310 or so

Phil Bourke
23-11-2008, 03:10 PM
With CPI, 'economic crisis', and falling exchange rates all factored in, I should go up from 1496 to 1469!!!! :D

Bill Gletsos
23-11-2008, 03:33 PM
There was a third loss in the same event so without even bothering to crunch the numbers I reckon I'll be down to about 1850. :rolleyes:

The paradoxical good news is that as my rating goes lower, some people become more worth beating and that makes me more motivated to do so.You can expect to stay in the 1900's as your only rated event is the Burnie Shines.

Bill Gletsos
23-11-2008, 03:40 PM
I am hoping to go up a little from my current 1572. Wrong direction.

Bill Gletsos
23-11-2008, 03:40 PM
With CPI, 'economic crisis', and falling exchange rates all factored in, I should go up from 1496 to 1469!!!! :DNo U1500 prizes for you.

Trent Parker
23-11-2008, 04:23 PM
I predict that dispite all the games i've played I'll stay about the same. (or couple points lower)

Kevin Bonham
23-11-2008, 08:47 PM
You can expect to stay in the 1900's as your only rated event is the Burnie Shines.

I will be submitting the HICC One Hour tomorrow night.

Spiny Norman
24-11-2008, 08:51 AM
Croydon Club Championship concludes this Thursday night and will be submitted. I've only played one game so will probably be +5 for this period.

Ian Rout
24-11-2008, 09:20 AM
I'm a bit handicapped on this one as we still have Vikings to come on the weekend (assuming we are able to get it in on time); there is also an ANU club tournament still to find though this will not make much difference to me.

From games to date I will be be dropping quite a bit due to a bad run at Elwood and to a lesser extent Burnie. I think the drop will be slightly less than it would be on paper as several of my opponents will be going up so my guess is, excluding Vikings, somewhere in the 1810s.

Trent Parker
24-11-2008, 01:18 PM
I'm pretty sure the Vikings is in december and thus will not be rated until March ;)

Miranda
24-11-2008, 01:29 PM
I played in the Vic country and won against a 700 and 1000... so hopefully I'll go up by a couple of points.

Igor_Goldenberg
24-11-2008, 01:32 PM
I played in the Vic country and won against a 700 and 1000... so hopefully I'll go up by a couple of points.
Miranda,
I am sorry, but I don't think you understand how Aus rating system works.

Ian Rout
24-11-2008, 01:46 PM
I'm pretty sure the Vikings is in december and thus will not be rated until March ;)
No, it's this weekend (29-30 Nov). Historically it's been the first weekend in December but has been moved to avoid a clash with the schools' final since this has more recently been the first weekend in December.

Adamski
24-11-2008, 10:05 PM
Wrong direction.
:( Well I suppose that's what happens when you lose to a girl grossly under-rated at 860 or so (I was 2 pawns up, relaxed and missed a tactic after which she was winning) and also an unrated player. Disappointing, though, as 5/9 seems a reasonable tournament result in the Ford - I just failed to beat anyone rated above me OTB.

Kevin Bonham
24-11-2008, 10:12 PM
Actually I suspect my 1850 will be an overestimate!

Adamski
24-11-2008, 10:45 PM
Actually I suspect my 1850 will be an overestimate!It doesn't look to me like you will drop below 1880, KB.

Kevin Bonham
24-11-2008, 10:57 PM
It doesn't look to me like you will drop below 1880, KB.

Actually I just put my results through Barry's calculator and also only got a loss of about 40 points (it tends to underestimate it so 50-60 lost seems more likely).

I'm recalling the damage from the 2004 Tasmanian Championships where losses to Ledger and Lewis and a draw with Martin cost me 78 points from six games (the other three being wins!) but then again they were lower rated than the players I have lost to this time, and also I was 2039 before that event and therefore had further to fall.

There are a few unknowns in this rating period for me. Marcus Bretag who I drew with is unrated and I haven't tried to work out what his rating will be. Julian Steward dropped a lot of points on return but has hugely outperformed his post-return rating in this period so the use of intermediate ratings will cushion the damage of "only" scoring 1/2 against him in this period.

Bill Gletsos
24-11-2008, 11:51 PM
:( Well I suppose that's what happens when you lose to a girl grossly under-rated at 860 or so (I was 2 pawns up, relaxed and missed a tactic after which she was winning) and also an unrated player.As has always been the case with ACF ratings, players ratings at the time the event is rated are used not ratings at the time the event was held. As such she was 1149 in the September list. In fact the system uses an intermeduate rating for your opponent and hers is in the mid 1200's so you are not really penalised. Also your so called unrated player had a September rating of 1728.

Your performance rating is under 1520 for the event so naturally your rating will drop from its current 1572.

Bill Gletsos
24-11-2008, 11:52 PM
It doesn't look to me like you will drop below 1880, KB.True.

Basil
25-11-2008, 12:28 AM
... cost me 78 points from six games
My God man, that's Duggan-esque! Stop it.

Adamski
25-11-2008, 05:39 AM
As has always been the case with ACF ratings, players ratings at the time the event is rated are used not ratings at the time the event was held. As such she was 1149 in the September list. In fact the system uses an intermediate rating for your opponent and hers is in the mid 1200's so you are not really penalised. Also your so called unrated player had a September rating of 1728.

Your performance rating is under 1520 for the event so naturally your rating will drop from its current 1572.Thanks for the explanation, Bill. I was going by the ratings (or non-ratings) cited at the start of the Ford. Of course they are updated by the September ratings for the Dec calculations.

Desmond
25-11-2008, 12:46 PM
My God man, that's Duggan-esque! Stop it.
That's nothing, ASX can drop more in a matter of minutes.

Igor_Goldenberg
25-11-2008, 12:47 PM
That's nothing, ASX can drop more in a matter of minutes.
But it's still higher then the highest rating achieved by the man :lol:

MichaelBaron
25-11-2008, 03:26 PM
But it's still higher then the highest rating achieved by the man :lol:
Lets hope it will also stay higher in future ;)

Igor_Goldenberg
25-11-2008, 03:27 PM
Lets hope it will also stay higher in future ;)
Three-fold would good for starters.:lol: :lol:

ER
26-11-2008, 07:06 PM
ok final prediction, my rating will increase by at least 13 points this quarter!
CAGLES

Kyle
30-11-2008, 04:38 PM
I am guessing a 193 point increase to just under 1200!

It always helps to have a low starting point:D

MichaelBaron
30-11-2008, 05:39 PM
ok final prediction, my rating will increase by at least 13 points this quarter!
CAGLES

amazing accuracy :)

ER
30-11-2008, 07:25 PM
Good on ya Kyle, that's the spirit, as long as you aim high in the long term!!! :)

Basil
30-11-2008, 11:04 PM
1485, down 8

ER
01-12-2008, 01:11 AM
Good on ya Kyle, that's the spirit, as long as you aim high in the long term!!! :)

1207 221 VIC Gibson, Kyle

Kyle if this is you CONGRATULATIONS!!!! you did great mate!:clap: :clap: :clap:
Cheers,
Elliott

ER
01-12-2008, 01:45 AM
Well i predicted 13 + and i got + 36 :clap: that's a warning for next rating period! :owned: Thanks Bill top job once again!
CAGLES

Basil
01-12-2008, 01:46 AM
Thanks as always, Bill.

Spiny Norman
01-12-2008, 06:28 AM
1207 221 VIC Gibson, Kyle
That's a top effort by Kyle! He (and his dad) have been regulars at a number of VIC clubs, including Croydon which is my club, and its fantastic to see him performing so well. He's worked really hard at his game and deserves the recognition!

Rincewind
01-12-2008, 08:49 AM
My estimate was with 5 points of the actual adjustment.

Vlad
01-12-2008, 09:34 AM
My estimate was with 5 points of the actual adjustment.

My estimate was 3 points away for myself and 1 point away for Anton.

Last weekend I played in the Vikings Weekender in Canberra. Given that there are so many strong underrated juniors in Canberra, I expected to drop some rating points. And so I did. :) I dropped about 10 rating points but got about $ 270 in prizes. In terms of Michael's proposal, did I end up selling rating points $27 per point? :)

MichaelBaron
01-12-2008, 10:27 AM
In terms of Michael's proposal, did I end up selling rating points $27 per point? :)

Well...Drug, you better make economy of scale work for you :). At $27/per point i would happily drop 500 points or so :hmm:

Rincewind
01-12-2008, 01:59 PM
Well...Drug, you better make economy of scale work for you :). At $27/per point i would happily drop 500 points or so :hmm:

I agree. Problems can arise when trying to scale up from academic pilot to industry start-up. :)