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Southpaw Jim
21-08-2008, 12:18 PM
May as well kick this one off.

I had a crap Club Championships this year, and going by Barry's calculator I'm set to lose in the order of 100 points :( I predict Barry's calculator will be pretty close, +/- 20 :doh:

Spiny Norman
21-08-2008, 12:23 PM
I only played 3 games (scored 2/3), but I will predict an increase of 5pts to 1538.

Vlad
21-08-2008, 01:58 PM
I am probably gonna get about 5-6 measly rating points.

Anton will probably get something like 1397.

Bill Gletsos
21-08-2008, 02:24 PM
I am probably gonna get about 5-6 measly rating points.:clap: ;)

Anton will probably get something like 1397.:clap: ;)

Phil Bourke
21-08-2008, 03:12 PM
After a lucky run at ANU, I should go up around 200 pts!!!!!!
OK, perhaps 20 :)

Bill Gletsos
21-08-2008, 06:19 PM
After a lucky run at ANU, I should go up around 200 pts!!!!!!
OK, perhaps 20 :)More like 30+.

eclectic
21-08-2008, 07:13 PM
i'm going to guess an increase of 20 to 25 points due to my lone statistical outlier win in adelaide :P

(barry's calculator (http://www.bjcox.com/modules.php?name=Glicko_Calc) is predicting a 42 point increase however it is glicko 1 not glicko 2)

ER
21-08-2008, 07:18 PM
ok give me a quarterly break then I shall be back and regain the lost ground fast and sweet, defying the odds! In this period I expect a well deserved increase of about 25 rating points! :owned:

CAGLES

Bill Gletsos
21-08-2008, 08:17 PM
i'm going to guess an increase of 20 to 25 points due to my lone statistical outlier win in adelaide :P

(barry's calculator (http://www.bjcox.com/modules.php?name=Glicko_Calc) is predicting a 42 point increase however it is glicko 1 not glicko 2)50+

Bill Gletsos
21-08-2008, 08:19 PM
ok give me a quarterly break then I shall be back and regain the lost ground fast and sweet, defying the odds! In this period I expect a well deserved increase of about 25 rating points! :owned::clap:

Kevin Bonham
21-08-2008, 09:08 PM
I have three tournaments going in and I performed at a shade over my (currently shabby) rating in two and a bit under in the third (which was longer).

There are a lot of uncertainties because in the last three months I have played many opponents with unreliable and probably also volatile ratings and who might be treated differently by G2 compared to G1. Barry's calculator says about +3. I'm not expecting more than 10 points difference either way, and more likely up than down although not necessarily up.

Adamski
21-08-2008, 11:47 PM
I only played 3 games (scored 2/3), but I will predict an increase of 5pts to 1538. I'll stay much the same around 1579. Also played 3 but only won one, though against a player who is going up in rating, Joshua Christensen.

Trent Parker
22-08-2008, 08:13 AM
I suspect my rating will drop about 20 points to the 15teens

I had a go with barry's calclator a while ago but cant remember the result...

Ian Rout
22-08-2008, 09:20 AM
Mine is tricky as I had a diversity of results and also a draw with an unrated (a tourist, not a beginner, he made 50% in the NSW Open). Looking from all the angles most likely a rise of 20-25 points, to around 1880 but most likely on the lower side of that number.

Rincewind
23-08-2008, 11:30 AM
My online calculator (http://www.bjcox.com/modules.php?name=Glicko_Calc) has me going up around 12 point to 1825. That is probably in the ball park. I did around par for my rating playing 15 games losing 2 and drawing 3 but again playing at a relatively weak club with no higher rated opponents makes it difficult to judge (and difficult to make a killing with a run of good form). The only thing I'm reasonably confident of is that my RD indicator will change back to a "!!". It had slipped to a "!" due to me missing a few tournaments earlier in the year.

Igor_Goldenberg
23-08-2008, 03:31 PM
Unlike FIDE rating, it is impossible to either predict or verify changes in ACF rating. As a result I don't pay much attention to my ACF rating anymore.

Alana
31-08-2008, 05:41 PM
I think I'm going up about 20 or so points - went well at ANU Minor, but HORRIBLY at ERGAS and the Belconnen Premier. I think my rapid will rise a lot though :)

eclectic
31-08-2008, 05:48 PM
we all only have to wait another seven or so hours unless Bill gets swamped by a deluge of late ratings submissions :uhoh:

Garvinator
31-08-2008, 06:16 PM
I am tipping an increase of about 15-20 pts.

Bill Gletsos
31-08-2008, 07:44 PM
we all only have to wait another seven or so hours unless Bill gets swamped by a deluge of late ratings submissions :uhoh:Have received 2 Dark Horse Junior events from the CV Ratings Officer at 10am today which were sent to him around 5am this morning.
Considering one of the events concluded last May, it just isnt fair on the CV Ratings Officer and just isnt good enough to submit me the day before the ratings are due.
In fact that particular event may end up not being rated as there are issues results within the SP files.
I have raised them with the CV Ratings Officer but I doubt he will be able to get back in time tonight.

Spiny Norman
01-09-2008, 07:17 AM
I only played 3 games (scored 2/3), but I will predict an increase of 5pts to 1538.
:clap: Spot on Spiny, you da man! :clap:

Trent Parker
01-09-2008, 08:56 AM
well, I didnt go down as far as I thought I would :D

Ian Rout
01-09-2008, 11:09 AM
Canberra players' ratings can now be viewed at the ACT ratings page (http://www.ianandjan.com/ian/ratings/), or click the link below to go directly to the list.

Davidflude
01-09-2008, 12:28 PM
My over the board rating will drop. Until I get my weight down another 5-7 kilos and get fit I will suffer from tiredness and fatigue over the board and make horrible blunders.

Fortunately my ICCF correspondence rating has stabilized at about 2150.

But then I have always been a correspondence specialist.

However once I get fit and lose weight I intend creating chaos over the board.

Must be time to walk to the gym.

Rincewind
01-09-2008, 02:04 PM
:clap: Spot on Spiny, you da man! :clap:

I was off by only 2 points which isn't bad considering the inexact nature of some of the initial conditions and the fact I was using Glicko-1 to predict a Glicko-2 calculation. :)

Spiny Norman
01-09-2008, 02:36 PM
... and I must confess to using your calculator to generate my estimate ...

eclectic
01-09-2008, 02:50 PM
58 point jump (probably 60 points from the 1 win less 2 points from the 5 losses ...a rough estimate ;) )

Spiny Norman
01-09-2008, 03:18 PM
Congrats E ... nice increase!

MichaelBaron
01-09-2008, 06:41 PM
My rating is still the same..as i have not participated in any tournaments. Therefore, my offer of 'rating points for sale" is still available :)

Kevin Bonham
01-09-2008, 09:29 PM
I'm not expecting more than 10 points difference either way, and more likely up than down although not necessarily up.

Down another five as it turns out (but nothing compared to what most likely awaits me in December unless I can score about 8/6 up in Burnie).

Including David Small (our unofficial #1 as he has not yet been transferred from Vic to Tas) Tassie now has only five active-listed players above 1800. Of these Dowden and Knight suffered large losses this period (too many draws and mediocre result while inactive respectively). A number of other experienced players have taken substantial hits but the leading juniors don't seem to have gone up all that much in most cases as they have themselves performed erratically. Points lost interstate or to interstate players may be a big factor here.

Good to see Lawrence Bretag get an excellent start rating of 1370.

Rincewind
02-09-2008, 09:02 AM
My rating is still the same..as i have not participated in any tournaments. Therefore, my offer of 'rating points for sale" is still available :)

Michael, that joke gets funnier every time you tell it.

bobby1972
02-09-2008, 10:31 AM
the rating list is it posted anywhere? please.

Spiny Norman
02-09-2008, 10:41 AM
the rating list is it posted anywhere? please.
Bill has posted some details here:
http://www.chesschat.org/showthread.php?t=8560

The ACF website hasn't been updated yet though.

Trent Parker
02-09-2008, 12:38 PM
Down another five as it turns out (but nothing compared to what most likely awaits me in December unless I can score about 8/6 up in Burnie).

Interesting concept - Double points rounds!!! :D

Spiny Norman
02-09-2008, 01:33 PM
I was reading 8/6 as a score of 1.3333 ;)

MichaelBaron
03-09-2008, 12:08 AM
Michael, that joke gets funnier every time you tell it.


Nothing can be compared to the fun i am having whenever i read about someone being exited about rating going up from 1532 to 1539 or sad about going down from 1324 to 1302 :whistle:

Basil
03-09-2008, 02:26 AM
Nothing can be compared to the fun i am having whenever i read about someone being exited about rating going up from 1532 to 1539 or sad about going down from 1324 to 1302 :whistle:
You actually win that exchange from a glib rejoinder POV, Mike. But on a deeper level your position is hauntingly cold.

The chatter re ratings points is clearly something that gives people (including me) pleasure, on occasion. Your situation which has connotations of 'sitting on life's best' as well as cynicism for the 'system that put you there, ratings-wise' isn't becoming at all.

Spiny Norman
03-09-2008, 06:50 AM
... rating going up from 1532 to 1539 ...
You know I'm catching you ... that shadow in the deepest recesses of your mind is me ... stalking you ... seeking your rating points ... don't walk down any dark alleys ... :uhoh:

Trent Parker
03-09-2008, 08:19 AM
Nothing can be compared to the fun i am having whenever i read about someone being exited about rating going up from 1532 to 1539 or sad about going down from 1324 to 1302 :whistle:

Exit stage forward?

Your ratings points are worthless Michael! Rating is just a sign of improvement IMHO but small increases/ decreases dont really matter.

Regards

Dilly Boy

MichaelBaron
03-09-2008, 03:18 PM
Your situation which has connotations of 'sitting on life's best' as well as cynicism for the 'system that put you there, ratings-wise' isn't becoming at all.

That is the point i am trying to make...It is not a '"rating system" that makes players stronger. I have no clue what Johansen's or Zhao's current ratings are ...I just know they are super-strong players.

MichaelBaron
03-09-2008, 03:19 PM
Exit stage forward?

Your ratings points are worthless Michael! Rating is just a sign of improvement IMHO but small increases/ decreases dont really matter.

Regards

Dilly Boy

Exactly!

Spiny Norman
03-09-2008, 03:56 PM
ACF website has now been updated with the September 2008 ratings.

ER
04-09-2008, 01:05 AM
In my opinion, our rating points service - an excellent and informative source - as it is prepared by tireless and enthusiastic yet productive and qualified volunteers, should cease be provided for free!
Clubs and individuals should pay a small fee to obtain it and whatever monies are made to be forwarded to worthy Chess related causes.
Cheers and good luck!

eclectic
04-09-2008, 01:46 AM
In my opinion, our rating points service - an excellent and informative source - as it is prepared by tireless and enthusiastic yet productive and qualified volunteers, should cease be provided for free!
Clubs and individuals should pay a small fee to obtain it and whatever monies are made to be forwarded to worthy Chess related causes.
Cheers and good luck!

we pay fees (indirectly) to have games rated

are you now suggesting we pay extra to see the results?

;)

MichaelBaron
04-09-2008, 01:52 AM
Clubs and individuals should pay a small fee to obtain it and whatever monies are made to be forwarded to worthy Chess related causes.
Cheers and good luck!

We do pay for having the games rated (not quite sure what the fee is but i am pretty sure there is one).

Not sure why we need to have ACF rating though if every single event can be now fide-rated rather easily..but its another story all together :hmm:

Vlad
04-09-2008, 02:28 AM
We do pay for having the games rated (not quite sure what the fee is but i am pretty sure there is one).

Not sure why we need to have ACF rating though if every single event can be now fide-rated rather easily..but its another story all together :hmm:

Michael, do you realize that it is a few times (is it about 10?) more expensive to rate events by FIDE? Certainly not every event can do that.

ER
04-09-2008, 05:06 AM
OK, Let me please explain what I mean. I know that certain percentage of my membership fee to my club goes for ACF dues, including preparation and publication of ratings.
However, taking myself as an example (full membership) I think that my membership fee and additionally the entry fees for tournaments I participate throughout the year, represent only a little fraction for the services provided by my club and by State and Federal Chess authorities.
I think producing the ratings lists quarterly in a nicely presented independent publication, would sell well and provide some extra income for our authorities.
In my general view we pay too little, expect too much, and take many things for granted as chess players in Australia!
Cheers and good luck!

Ian Rout
04-09-2008, 09:08 AM
Michael, do you realize that it is a few times (is it about 10?) more expensive to rate events by FIDE? Certainly not every event can do that.
In addition FIDE has a rating floor so, while it is dropping, a fair proportion of players could not get a rating.