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Kevin Bonham
12-07-2008, 10:21 PM
Thought I'd create a thread for discussion of Australian state politics (any state) as often that kind of discussion crops up on other threads ('The 3', 'Wall to Wall Labor' etc) where it is sometimes not entirely relevant.

A brief synopsis of the current state of electoral battle in each state.

Western Australia

Election due next year but Labor widely tipped to go to the polls later this year. Alan Carpenter has high approval ratings and his party enjoys a 2PP lead between 53-47 and 56-44 depending on poll over an opposition that is a hopeless infighting rabble led by a supposedly reformed former chair-sniffing sleazebag.

South Australia

Election due 20 March 2010. Mike Rann, who is the only remaining Labor premier to have won an election from Opposition (!) enjoys similarly high approval ratings to Carpenter and his party is also in a strong position.

Victoria

Election due 2010. Labor have a recycled leader (John Brumby was replaced by Steve Bracks before Bracks became Premier) but the Libs' Ted Bailleu is widely seen as a toff and not popular. Brumby is currently travelling strongly with large 2PP leads.

Tasmania

Election due 2010. Unpopular former premier Paul Lennon, whose government had endured a series of probity scandals, recently left the building and was replaced by youngish, internet-savvy David Bartlett. With the state Liberals and Greens both also having young and modern leaders many people expect a hung parliament at the next state election. Most of them also expected it in 2006, and were wrong.

New South Wales

Election due 2011. New premier Morris Iemma was able to win unexpectedly strongly at the helm of a jaded government in 2007 but his government is currently polling badly (behind on 2PP) and some believe the sharks to be circling concerning his position. This is the one state where the Liberals are given really good chances of winning by betting markets, which assess the race as close to even.

Queensland

Election due 2010. Following the resignation of Peter Beattie, Anna Bligh has taken over and may now become the first woman re-elected as Premier of an Australian State (although women have been re-elected as leaders of both Territories). The Coalition is currently trying to work its way through a messy merger proposal.

and just for completion

Northern Territory

Election due 2009. I struggle to remember the guy's name, but Paul Henderson became Chief Minister last November, after Clare Martin resigned (reputedly having lost the support of her party over her handling of Howard's NT interventions.) NT politics is characterised by extremely small electorate sizes making it more like local council voting than state politics.

ACT

Election due 18 Oct 2008. Like Tasmania, the ACT uses the Hare-Clark system. Chief Minister Jon Stanhope is defending the only majority government in the ACT's history of so-called self-government.

Concerning NSW, I would be interested in any comments on the following from those living in that state:

* Is Iemma doomed?
* Who would replace him?
* What would you think of a replacement's chances of leading Labor to another election win?

Garvinator
12-07-2008, 11:08 PM
Queensland

Election due 2010. Following the resignation of Peter Beattie, Anna Bligh has taken over and may now become the first woman re-elected as Premier of an Australian State (although women have been re-elected as leaders of both Territories). The Coalition is currently trying to work its way through a messy merger proposal.
Regarding the merger idea that is currently doing the rounds.

Back a few years ago, the Qld Government passed a law not to increase the size of parliament. This means Qld can only have 89 electorates. With the rapidly increasing population in the south east, this has caused a boundary re-distribution which has favoured the Liberal Party over the Nats and a couple of Nat seats have been wiped from the map.

One of the biggest problems for any merger proposal is that for the Libs/Nats to gain government, it is highly likely that the Libs will win more seats than the Nats, simply due to demographics (more seats in the south east, less seats in the country).

But as it stands, the Nats hold quite a few more seats and so they have the majority votes.

Just before campaigning started at the last election, the Libs decided to get rid of Bob Quinn (long time Lib party leader) and installed Bruce Flegg. On the first day of campaigning, Bruce Flegg was asked who would be leader of the Coalition if they gained government.

He fumbled his answer so many times and this became a running issue for the whole campaign. I thought the simple answer was, who ever wins the most seats.

Currently one of the main issues for the Coalition is who will be president of the merged party. I think it is an issue for some of the same reasons listed above. The libs know that to gain government, they will win more seats than the nats, but currently do not have the voting numbers to push it through.

As for the Labor Gov, they continue to be a disgrace and Ms Bligh must go to bed each night thankful for such a hopeless opposition.

Kevin Bonham
22-07-2008, 10:50 PM
Snap election called early in NT. Territorians get to have fun doing doodles on 9 August. Extremely brief campaign.

Current parliament up there is 19 ALP, 4 CLP, two independents, although two ALP seats are notionally CLP following redistribution.

It's generally expected (given their massive buffer) that Labor will lose seats but not government. Reading the comments from those who know better on Poll Bludger, it looks like the opposition could gain 3-5 seats.

It is not known whether either party intends to attempt to affiliate with the ACF if elected. :P

Garvinator
25-07-2008, 09:27 PM
Currently one of the main issues for the Coalition is who will be president of the merged party. I think it is an issue for some of the same reasons listed above. The libs know that to gain government, they will win more seats than the nats, but currently do not have the voting numbers to push it through.Papers are now reporting that the merger proposal is in tatters. Would someone like my lotto number predictions ;)


As for the Labor Gov, they continue to be a disgrace and Ms Bligh must go to bed each night thankful for such a hopeless opposition.I think Ms Bligh must have found a genie bottle somewhere and was given one wish :whistle: and it is being granted.

Garvinator
25-07-2008, 09:29 PM
Snap election called early in NT. Territorians get to have fun doing doodles on 9 August. Extremely brief campaign.

Current parliament up there is 19 ALP, 4 CLP, two independents, although two ALP seats are notionally CLP following redistribution.

It's generally expected (given their massive buffer) that Labor will lose seats but not government. Reading the comments from those who know better on Poll Bludger, it looks like the opposition could gain 3-5 seats.

It is not known whether either party intends to attempt to affiliate with the ACF if elected. :P
Have read quite a bit that the matter of the NT intervention is not being mentioned by either side in the election.

A shame, but not surprising as Labor does not want to talk about it as they would then have to defend their record over the years on aboriginal health and the CLP probably think there are no seats to be won on the issue.

Apparently more attention is being devoted to sports stadiums in Darwin.

Capablanca-Fan
28-07-2008, 01:53 PM
Papers are now reporting that the merger proposal is in tatters. Would someone like my lotto number predictions ;)

I think Ms Bligh must have found a genie bottle somewhere and was given one wish :whistle: and it is being granted.
But now the merger has been achieved. Finally the QLD Labor Government has an incentive to get its act together.

Denis_Jessop
28-07-2008, 04:52 PM
ACT

Election due 18 Oct 2008. Like Tasmania, the ACT uses the Hare-Clark system. Chief Minister Jon Stanhope is defending the only majority government in the ACT's history of so-called self-government.

The ACT situation is that the Stanhope Government is incompetent but the Liberal opposition is even more incompetent. As well, there are virtually no useful independents likely to stand except the Mayor of Queanbeyan. To make things worse the ACT Public Service is barely competent where it matters and so essential services including water conservation have been neglected for the last 25 years or so. So it's a bleak outlook whoever wins. :evil:

DJ

Axiom
28-07-2008, 06:01 PM
The ACT situation is that the Stanhope Government is incompetent but the Liberal opposition is even more incompetent. As well, there are virtually no useful independents likely to stand except the Mayor of Queanbeyan. To make things worse the ACT Public Service is barely competent where it matters and so essential services including water conservation have been neglected for the last 25 years or so. So it's a bleak outlook whoever wins. :evil:

DJ
what was that quote about being ruled by your inferiors ? :cool:

MichaelBaron
28-07-2008, 07:52 PM
The ACT situation is that the Stanhope Government is incompetent but the Liberal opposition is even more incompetent.
DJ

:) I am afraid this problem is not unique to ACT. As i live in Victoria, it appears to be painfully familiar...

Igor_Goldenberg
29-07-2008, 11:15 AM
The ACT situation is that the Stanhope Government is incompetent but the Liberal opposition is even more incompetent.

I'll take the generalisation even further:
Replace "The ACT" with "modern politics" and remove "Stanhope" and "Liberal"

arosar
29-07-2008, 06:45 PM
ALP lambasted: http://tinyurl.com/5pw3qv

AR

Kevin Bonham
29-07-2008, 10:14 PM
So it's a bleak outlook whoever wins. :evil:

This actually seems to be an increasing problem in Australian state politics today - elections where parties battle to be seen as the least mediocre/jaded/corrupt/infighting/harebrained etc and you don't actually need to be all that good to win.

Desmond
30-07-2008, 11:25 AM
In another thread, someone (KB?) mentioned that certain leaders would have a hard time being elected as leader for the first time, but if they are handed over the leadership they can be re-elected without too much trouble. I wonder if Anna Bligh fits into this category?

pax
30-07-2008, 12:16 PM
There was an amusing poll this week showing that the preferred premier in WA among Liberal and National voters is... Alan Carpenter. And not by a narrow margin.

The same poll showed the Coalition with a slight lead in 2PP vote. When Colin Barnett is substituted for Troy Buswell, that turned into a Coalition landslide. I don't think the Liberal party room can continue to ignore Troy Buswell's unpopularity, especially with an early election looming.

Kevin Bonham
30-07-2008, 09:42 PM
There was an amusing poll this week showing that the preferred premier in WA among Liberal and National voters is... Alan Carpenter. And not by a narrow margin.

Was that the Wespoll?

The general view of my fellow psephologists is that Wespolls are exceedingly unreliable and verging on useless.

Kevin Bonham
31-07-2008, 10:59 PM
Labor has won two seats in the NT election unopposed. These are believed to be the first seats won unopposed in an Australian state or territory lower house since the early 1980s, although it is quite common for members of the Tasmanian upper house to be returned unopposed.

Denis_Jessop
01-08-2008, 04:14 PM
Labor has won two seats in the NT election unopposed. These are believed to be the first seats won unopposed in an Australian state or territory lower house since the early 1980s, although it is quite common for members of the Tasmanian upper house to be returned unopposed.

Many years ago it was quite common for candidates in "blue ribbon" electorates to be elected unopposed in federal elections. That has not happened as far as I can remember for a long time. I think that one reason was the introduction of PR for the Senate causing parties to field a candidate in every electorate to maximise their Senate vote.

DJ

pax
01-08-2008, 04:47 PM
Was that the Wespoll?
Yep.


The general view of my fellow psephologists is that Wespolls are exceedingly unreliable and verging on useless.
They are not very reliable, but the numbers are nevertheless interesting..
http://www.pollbludger.com/900

Kevin Bonham
01-08-2008, 07:40 PM
Many years ago it was quite common for candidates in "blue ribbon" electorates to be elected unopposed in federal elections. That has not happened as far as I can remember for a long time.

You are correct; there were 10 unopposed seats won by the Coalition in 1955 and I don't believe there have been any since.


I think that one reason was the introduction of PR for the Senate causing parties to field a candidate in every electorate to maximise their Senate vote.

Electoral funding arrangements can also have a lot to do with it.

Kevin Bonham
06-08-2008, 08:01 PM
Troy Buswell has finally done the inevitable and resigned as WA Opposition Leader. Actually he survived longer than I expected but it was always just a matter of time. I've seen claims that the Wespoll result showing Barnett would be competitive as Opposition Leader has also appeared in internal polling by both parties, but one always needs to treat "internal polling" claims with a grain of salt as they are often selectively released for political advantage. Could be an election in WA within the next 1-2 months.

In Tassie, our government has had almost as many major dramas since the last election as WA has had Opposition Leaders, and now we've got another one with our Tourism Minister unsuccessfully attempting suicide (contrary to initial rumours, this had nothing to do with Sam Newman making dodgy remarks about her last week.) If she resigns (though it is not yet clear what will happen and all sides of politics are handling the matter sympathetically), there is only one Labor candidate left who can fill her position on a recount, and he got only 620 votes at the last state election (as you would expect from someone whose previous greatest claim to fame was running not even the Hobart student union but the Launceston one). Or if he declined it, Labor could request a by-election.

eclectic
07-08-2008, 10:46 PM
i note a snap election has been called in WA to take advantage of a new opposition leader and to hide behind the publicity smoke screen :rolleyes: of the olympics

Kevin Bonham
07-08-2008, 11:16 PM
i note a snap election has been called in WA to take advantage of a new opposition leader and to hide behind the publicity smoke screen :rolleyes: of the olympics

September six, sheesh, that is snappy.

Some strident comments on the strategic aspects here (http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/early-election-call-a-strategic-blunder-analysts-20080807-3rjs.html).

My own view is that many such analysts exist in a narrative of strategic assessment that does not really connect to how the voters view things, and that those calling the early election call a blunder aren't correct. There will be some backlash over the sheer cynicism of it all, but it is sensible risk management on Labor's part and while there is a message to be argued that Labor called it now because they are scared of Colin Barnett, the Liberals will struggle to get people's attention on that message - and the people wouldn't care that much anyway.

Kevin Bonham
09-08-2008, 08:31 PM
NT election is very close as the CLP has done very well (certainly better than predicted by Crikey's Charles Richardson who yesterday tipped them to only gain one seat). At the moment 13-11-1 (ALP majority) is the favourite but 12-12-1 (hung parliament) is very possible with Labor ahead by 40 votes in their 13th seat.

CLP were at double-figure odds to win but they seem to have come pretty close.

Kevin Bonham
12-08-2008, 06:39 PM
13-11-1 is now the more or less certain outcome of the NT election. Labor leads by 94 with about 150 to count in the closest remaining seat and the opposition leader has conceded.

Kevin Bonham
31-08-2008, 10:47 PM
WA election coming up on Saturday. The Coalition has been closing in the betting and from a start price around $4.50 is now in to about $3.40. There hasn't been that much polling I have seen but what there is suggests the Libs are holding a competitive 2PP vote although nothing for the Government to be hugely alarmed by. I would be interested in any comments on the election from those on the ground over there.

Also next weekend are federal by-elections for Mayo and Lyne. Lyne is very interesting as it may well elect NSW state independent Rob Oakeshott. Mayo is mildly interesting because a previous Liberal federal candidate for a different seat, Bob Day, quit the Libs and is running for Family First after missing preselection.

rob
31-08-2008, 11:24 PM
[QUOTE=Kevin Bonham]WA election coming up on Saturday. The Coalition has been closing in the betting and from a start price around $4.50 is now in to about $3.40. There hasn't been that much polling I have seen but what there is suggests the Libs are holding a competitive 2PP vote although nothing for the Government to be hugely alarmed by. I would be interested in any comments on the election from those on the ground over there.
QUOTE]

The Saturday edition of 'The West Australian' has the front page headline 'Labor landslide builds as poll shows Liberal wave has broken'.
54-46% Westpoll confirms the nightly tracking The West Australian obtained this week. Other front page headlines are: 'Hospital ED risk worst in nation' and 'three teens die, two critical after high-speed smash' - there has been plenty of discussion recently over here re young inexperienced ppl driving powerfull cars.

Capablanca-Fan
01-09-2008, 10:16 AM
If the new Liberal National Party in QLD can't win, they should be shot. The latest fiasco with state hospital bed shortage reminds me of P.J. O'Rourke's quip:


"If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it's free."

Kevin Bonham
03-09-2008, 01:00 AM
William Bowe (Pollbludger) has predicted this for WA: ALP 30, Lib 23, Nat 4, Ind 2 in the Lower House and 15 ALP, 14 Lib, 2 Nat, 3 Green, 2 FF for the Upper House.

Southpaw Jim
05-09-2008, 12:46 PM
Morris Iemma has been rolled by his own caucus, the same day he sacked Costa! I must say, from what I've picked up in the media, this has been coming for a while...

Kevin Bonham
05-09-2008, 03:21 PM
Yeah, they had to do it as Iemma would certainly have lost the next election; he was looking very shaky as leader when I started this thread in July, and since then it became clearer to me that he was a dead duck. I know nothing about the new guy and in terms of Labor's chances at the next election (if there are any) all that matters is he isn't Iemma.

The difficult thing for him is that it will be hard to run on a cleaning-up-the-mess kind of platform because Iemma did exactly that last time and voters must be very cynical about it by now.

Kevin Bonham
06-09-2008, 11:46 PM
Looks like WA has itself a hung parliament as it looks like the best Labor is really likely to do is 26 plus two friendly independents. (30 needed for majority). Libs will need National and Independent support to govern. Nationals said they wouldn't go into coalition so will be interesting to see what happens. Greens extremely close to winning Fremantle but on current figures will finish a close third (if they beat the Libs for second they win on preferences but that isn't happening at the moment.)

Kevin Bonham
07-09-2008, 12:36 PM
Now looking like Labor might manage 27 seats plus the two pro-Labor independents but 28 is out of reach, making it possible for Barnett to form a majority government if supported by the Nationals and the other two Independents.

Capablanca-Fan
07-09-2008, 12:45 PM
Now looking like Labor might manage 27 seats plus the two pro-Labor independents but 28 is out of reach, making it possible for Barnett to form a majority government if supported by the Nationals and the other two Independents.
How much will the Nats demand though?

Rudd must be concerned though. No way he will try a double dissolution if the Senate blocks his bills now.

Kevin Bonham
07-09-2008, 01:24 PM
How much will the Nats demand though?

Probably an obscenely large quantity of rural pork, which the Libs will then deliver. I also wonder what Janet Wollard will demand should it turn out that the Libs need her for their 30. They may not need her depending on results; if they can win another seat above what they currently look like getting then they can govern with the Nats and Constable.


Rudd must be concerned though. No way he will try a double dissolution if the Senate blocks his bills now.

I wouldn't read any federal implications into this. The Libs are still a joke federally and yesterday nearly lost Downer's old seat to the Greens and an independent. The Nationals lost yet another federal seat to a local independent and by a ridiculous margin. What this and the NT result do show is that now that there is a popular Labor federal government, voters will be much less forgiving of bad and corrupt Labor state administrations and will no longer keep propping them up just because the opposition is a rabble.

Trizza
07-09-2008, 07:31 PM
WA Nationals leader Brendon Grylls has been promoting the "Royalties for Regions Policy" for several years, under which 25% of mining royalties are used for expenditure in rural areas. Both major parties were never interested, and Liberal leader Colin Barnett refused to meet Grylls once the election was held. In hindsight this seems surprising but I suppose he thought that with new one vote one value redistributions applying to the lower house for the first time that it was not worth it.

Last night Grylls maintained that the WA Nationals were a completely independent party and would be willing to discuss partnership (not coalition) options with either side - with Royalties for Regions being non-negotiable. Political journalists (plus Stephen Smith and Julie Bishop on ABC TV) were incredulous at the option of a Labor-National government. Carpenter said it was an option Labor would definitely discuss and mentioned the position in SA where there is a National minister in the Labor government. A partnership with the Nationals is probably the only option for Labor, but seems like a pretty unstable position to me.

Carpenter confirmed today that he and Grylls were to meet this afternoon. Barnett and Grylls are apparently meeting tomorrow. Prior to the meeting today Carpenter and Grylls repeated their positions in the media, while Barnett said that Nationals voters would expect a change of government.

A quote from a commentator in Friday's paper:

Labor deserves to lose the election. The Liberals haven't done enough to win. :D

Capablanca-Fan
07-09-2008, 07:49 PM
Probably an obscenely large quantity of rural pork, which the Libs will then deliver.
:wall: :wall: :wall:


I also wonder what Janet Wollard will demand should it turn out that the Libs need her for their 30. They may not need her depending on results; if they can win another seat above what they currently look like getting then they can govern with the Nats and Constable.
Aren't both Liz Constable and Janet Wollard closer to the Libs in policitical philosophy?


I wouldn't read any federal implications into this.
It might show that voters are likely to punish opportunistic snap elections.


The Libs are still a joke federally and yesterday nearly lost Downer's old seat to the Greens and an independent.
That's embarrassing for them.


The Nationals lost yet another federal seat to a local independent and by a ridiculous margin.
The Nats seem on a downward slope to oblivion, but it will be slow and painful. But while they can, this tail will probably want to wag the dog for all it can.


What this and the NT result do show is that now that there is a popular Labor federal government, voters will be much less forgiving of bad and corrupt Labor state administrations and will no longer keep propping them up just because the opposition is a rabble.
Why are the two related?

pax
07-09-2008, 08:44 PM
A quote from a commentator in Friday's paper:

The paper is part of the problem for Carpenter. The West Australian has had a grossly anti-Labor bias for some considerable time. It was interesting to hear former Liberal leader Matt Birnie's comments on the subject last night (he was very critical of the paper).

Another big issue, I think was Carpenter's deeply cynical calling of the election the day after the Libs changed leader. I think that offended many people's sense of fair play, and they voted accordingly.

Kevin Bonham
07-09-2008, 08:58 PM
As for the pork, we've seen the price:

Full article here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/07/2357669.htm?section=justin

I suspect both parties will try to cut deals. It's an especially tricky situation for Labor because if they refuse to cut a deal and the Libs also don't deal, they get left holding the parcel - the parcel being minority government without guaranteed stability, a particularly unpleasant fate.


Aren't both Liz Constable and Janet Wollard closer to the Libs in policitical philosophy?

Notionally so. But whereas Constable is an ex-Lib who left over a specific issue, Wollard was not originally elected as a Lib but rather as a member of the rather odd liberals for forests group.


It might show that voters are likely to punish opportunistic snap elections.

Possibly. But whether voters would regard a double dissolution that could be blamed on Senate obstructionism as the same thing is another question. I am also not convinced that the calling of an early election was in itself the problem. I think the main thing we have just seen in the West is a jaded government getting itself out-campaigned.


Why are the two related?

I mentioned at the time of the NT result that NT voters may not have been too happy with the popular Clare Martin who led the party to a record victory being needlessly rolled by opportunist power-grabbers. They therefore voted for the CLP in surprisingly large numbers although the CLP had become such a joke it couldn't even find anyone to run for it in two electorates.

Now in WA we have seen a joke opposition that has had four leaders in about four years led to the edge of victory by a leader who was going to retire, just because the voters had had a gutful of the government.

ER
07-09-2008, 09:17 PM
The fraction fight will continue. Kicking Sartor out, wasn't a good move in my opinion! Having said that, till March 2011 he will have time to fix a few things! Very much will depend on the general economic situation in Aus. People in NSW are fed up with high cost of living, hospitals state, traffic problems and, let me add, public transport!
They have the best players in Aus though! :P
Cheers and good luck!

Kevin Bonham
08-09-2008, 05:51 PM
Will still be several days before the WA result is known as there are still possibilities of Labor winning 28 if the ball bounces their way on non-booth votes (postals etc). There apparently won't be any official updating in that time either so it could be hard to tell what is going on until the end of next week.

Kevin Bonham
10-09-2008, 08:48 PM
Some of the "independent" seats in WA are now looking more dubious than on counting night. In Alfred Cove the Liberal is closing on Janet Wollard and may defeat her. In Kwinnana Labor has improved its position against Carol Adams although establishing the exact situation is difficult because of incomplete figures.

In any case counting 26 seats in the bag for Labor and/or Labor independents the ones to watch at present are considered by various commentators to be:

Riverton, where the Liberals have a trivial lead but one that shows no sign of going away
Wanneroo where the Libs are ahead and projected to win
Albany where Labor is ahead but the Libs are closing and the outcome is unclear
Forrestfield, ditto to above
Collie-Preston where Labor is ahead and likely to stay there
Morley which was regarded as a clear Lib gain but Labor is gaining on postals because the disendorsed sitting former ALP member preferenced the Libs on his how-to-vote-card but postal voters didn't know that.

Assuming Labor wins Collie-Preston they need three more (of the above or one somehow from somewhere else) for 30.

Rincewind
13-09-2008, 06:21 PM
Former NSW frontbencher Reba Meagher resigned from politics today.

NSW is now looking at four by-elections.

Kevin Bonham
13-09-2008, 06:42 PM
Former NSW frontbencher Reba Meagher resigned from politics today.

NSW is now looking at four by-elections.

Fortunately for Labor one of the seats up for grabs isn't theirs and two of the others are their safest seats on paper in the state (Iemma won Lakemba with an 84% 2PP!)

Basil
14-09-2008, 01:50 PM
Libs form govt in WA (with Nats). Confirmed.

Kevin Bonham
14-09-2008, 06:58 PM
Yes and Carpenter resigns as Labor leader, not surprisingly.

The numbers in the new parliament will apparently be 27-24-4-2 with two in doubt. One of the two will go to either the Libs or Wollard and the other to either Labor or Adams, so they don't do anything to the balance. The new Lib-Nat coalition will need the support of at least Constable and Wollard if she wins in order to govern. Constable will be given a position in Cabinet.

Kevin Bonham
15-09-2008, 06:27 PM
WA lower house done and dusted. 28 ALP, 24 Lib, 4 Nat, three independents.

The three independents are Bowler (ex-ALP), Constable (ex-Lib), Wollard (Lib-aligned). Adams lost. All are working with the Lib-Nat coalition in various ways so the non-ALP forces technically should have a majority of three.

Bill Gletsos
23-09-2008, 12:46 AM
Michael Costa has resigned from the NSW parliament.

Kevin Bonham
30-09-2008, 05:38 PM
The ACT has an election on October 18. The ACT has a 17-member assembly elected using the same system (Hare-Clark with Robson Rotation) used in the Tasmanian lower house, but with one seven-member electorate and two five-member ones.

Current state of the parliament: Labor 9 Lib 6 Green 1 Ind (ex-Lib) 1.

It is quite similar to the WA election with the Government on the nose and the Opposition a rabble. If the Greens can get enough lift in their vote to win a seat in one of the five-member electorates then that (among other ways it could happen) will be the end of Stanhope's majority.

Garvinator
30-09-2008, 10:54 PM
It is quite similar to the WA election with the Government on the nose and the Opposition a rabble.
Don't you really mean, it is quite similar to all other states and territory in Australia ;)

Kevin Bonham
30-09-2008, 11:09 PM
Don't you really mean, it is quite similar to all other states and territory in Australia ;)

I was reluctant to generalise. There are states where Labor is more on the nose than others although no state Labor government is in especially wonderful shape. Also whatever else might be and should be said about the Tassie Liberals they at least have had a stable leadership situation since their previous leader resigned after losing the last election; some other state Oppositions are probably not too ruined by infighting.

Capablanca-Fan
19-10-2008, 09:03 AM
Labor punished in NSW by-elections (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/18/2394895.htm?section=justin)
ABC News, 18 October 2008


Labor has suffered dramatic swings in today's four New South Wales by-elections, losing its first state Sydney seat to the Liberals in 20 years.

The Liberals only needed a swing of 10.1 per cent to snatch the metropolitan Sydney seat of Ryde but at 9:40pm (AEDT), the swing was a massive 22.9 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

The winning candidate, Victor Dominello, won 53.7 per cent of the primary votes to Labor candidate Nicole Campbell's 30.1 per cent.

Kevin Bonham
20-10-2008, 04:40 PM
Labor has also lost its majority in the ACT, though that is not a huge surprise. What is interesting is the large swing to the Greens there which if replicated at NSW and Victorian state elections next time around will see the Greens finally win lower house seats there (as has often been prematurely predicted before.)

Kevin Bonham
29-10-2008, 12:30 AM
ACT election finished up with 7 Labor, 6 Liberal, 4 Green. The 4th Green seat has been considered a surprise in some mainstream reports but serious psephelogical observers had been taking the chances of it seriously since quite early in the count and most thought the Greens were more likely than not to win that seat.

Desmond
17-12-2008, 12:44 PM
Qld to miss out on Anzac Day long weekend (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/16/2447665.htm?section=justin)

The Queensland Government has defended its decision not to grant workers an extra day off for Anzac Day next year.

For the first time since 1998, Anzac Day will fall on a Saturday, so the public holiday will be observed on the day itself with the usual trading restrictions.

Queensland Council of Unions general secretary Ron Monaghan has been pushing for an Anzac Day long weekend.

...

The Returned Services League (RSL) has also shrugged off calls for an Anzac Day long weekend next year.

RSL Queensland chief executive Chris McHugh says it could mean bigger numbers at next year's commemorations.

...

Queenslanders are not the only Australians to miss out on the extra day; only workers in WA and ACT will get Monday April 27 off next year.

Methinks those unions types need to get a life.

Southpaw Jim
17-12-2008, 01:08 PM
Considering the public holiday was only ever intended such that people could attend memorial services etc, I can't see any justification for a long weekend in those circumstances.

Kevin Bonham
19-12-2008, 10:26 PM
The latest state Newspolls show Labor ahead on a 2PP basis 57-43 on both Victoria and Queensland but losing 59-41 in NSW.

That Labor will be exterminated in NSW at the next state election is not really any surprise to anyone but the idea that Labor is on the nose at state level generally appears to now be stalling. There is probably a wariness of throwing out incumbents in these uncertain financial times except in NSW where the incumbent party is genuinely awful.

eclectic
19-12-2008, 10:36 PM
Qld to miss out on Anzac Day long weekend (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/16/2447665.htm?section=justin)

Methinks those unions types need to get a life.

given that is a NATIONAL commemorative event ought it not be the FEDERAL government who decides how ANZAC day should be observed?

Capablanca-Fan
20-12-2008, 02:07 AM
The latest state Newspolls show Labor ahead on a 2PP basis 57-43 on both Victoria and Queensland but losing 59-41 in NSW.
That's a huge margin, esp. when the governments are grossly incompetent in looking after their states. QLD has health and water scandals, while Vic Labor is enslaved to the Green-stapo and refuses to build dams for water and flood prevention. But until recently, the QLD opposition has been too divided, while Vic's is Labor-Lite, a sure strategy for remaining in Opposition.


That Labor will be exterminated in NSW at the next state election is not really any surprise to anyone but the idea that Labor is on the nose at state level generally appears to now be stalling. There is probably a wariness of throwing out incumbents in these uncertain financial times except in NSW where the incumbent party is genuinely awful.
but has the Opposition finally got its act together?

Capablanca-Fan
22-01-2009, 04:05 PM
Raiding powers for human rights body (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,24910221-643,00.html)
Rick Wallace, Victorian political reporter | January 14, 2009
The Australian 14 Jan 2009

VICTORIA'S human rights commission would be empowered to conduct wide-ranging discrimination investigations, compel witnesses to testify and conduct searches and seizures under proposals to dramatically boost the organisation's powers.

The state Government is considering plans to overhaul the Victorian Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission, taking it from a complaint-driven conciliation body to a proactive discrimination-busting agency.

A current review into equal opportunity laws is expected to consider scrapping exemptions that allow exclusive private clubs such as the Athenaeum or Lyceum to bar male or female members. The recommendations for a major upgrade to the commission's powers came in a review conducted by veteran social justice campaigner and former public advocate Julian Gardner on behalf of Attorney-General Rob Hulls.

"The power to conduct an inquiry could include the power to compel the attendance of a person to provide information and/or produce documents," Mr Gardner's report recommends.

"These powers could be supported by the power of entry, search and seizure to obtain necessary evidence and documentation."

...

Melbourne QC Peter Faris likened the proposed powers to those of a crime commission, and described the changes as a blow to free speech. "They would have to prosecute Prince Harry," he said, referring to the prince's recent "Paki" jibe to an army colleague.

"It's a big step. They are going to need lawyers and what would amount to police to conduct raids. It's difficult to see why it is necessary -- there hasn't been any great outbreak of criticism."

...

The Australian Industry Group's Victorian director, Tim Piper, said the changes ran counter to the Government's goal of reducing new legislation and red tape. He said the prospect of businesses being subjected to searches and seizures would force national employers to develop new procedures just for their Victorian operations.

Kevin Bonham
26-01-2009, 10:23 PM
Interesting result in the SA state by-election for the seat of Frome. This was the seat that was held by former Liberal Premier Rob Kerin. The seat has gone on preferences to an Independent who is a town mayor, who finished third on primaries with about 21% of the vote, but then caught Labor on preferences of minor candidates (mainly the Nats), eliminating the Labor candidate by 30 votes, and then beating the Liberal on preferences.

Not a good sign for the SA Liberals if they can't even hold their own seat in a by-election. :eek:

Capablanca-Fan
26-01-2009, 10:50 PM
Interesting result in the SA state by-election for the seat of Frome. This was the seat that was held by former Liberal Premier Rob Kerin. The seat has gone on preferences to an Independent who is a town mayor, who finished third on primaries with about 21% of the vote, but then caught Labor on preferences of minor candidates (mainly the Nats), eliminating the Labor candidate by 20-30 votes, and then beating the Liberal on preferences.
I wonder if this is an example of a theoretical flaw in preferential voting (http://rangevoting.org/Monotone.html) working out in practice.


Not a good sign for the SA Liberals if they can't even hold their own seat in a by-election. :eek:
True. Not surprising though, since Talkbull is Labor-Lite and doesn't give people any reason to prefer him over the ruling lot.

Aaron Guthrie
26-01-2009, 10:50 PM
Not a good sign for the SA Liberals if they can't even hold their own seat in a by-election. :eek:Is it that strange? I thought people would be a bit annoyed at Kerin for causing the by-election. Also the fact that the Liberal guy would be new to the voters.

Kevin Bonham
26-01-2009, 11:11 PM
I wonder if this is an example of a theoretical flaw in preferential voting (http://rangevoting.org/Monotone.html) working out in practice.

Yes, it is; well spotted. Had 50 voters who voted 1 Liberal instead voted 1 Labor 2 Liberal, the independent candidate (Brock) would have been eliminated in third place and the Liberals would have won the seat.

I've seen a comment to the effect that the scrutineering would have been hilarious because the Liberal scrutineers wanted to save as many Labor votes as possible (and even give their own votes to Labor) to increase the chances of Labor finishing second, which would have allowed the Liberals to win.

The Labor scrutineers, however, their own candidate being unable to win the seat, wanted Brock to win the by-election and therefore had an interest in having a substantial number of their own candidate's votes invalidated.


Is it that strange? I thought people would be a bit annoyed at Kerin for causing the by-election. Also the fact that the Liberal guy would be new to the voters.

Commonly in by-elections these factors, while present, are swamped by the desire of voters to use the by-election to protest the incumbent government. It wasn't just the popular independent throwing a spanner in the works either; on a 2PP basis (ignoring Brock) there was a swing to the government of 2% and that in a seat where there had been a very large swing to the government at the previous state poll. Apparently it is the first time an Opposition has failed to hold its own seat in a by-election in SA history although I do not know how many serious opportunities there have been for one to lose one.

Kevin Bonham
03-02-2009, 12:48 AM
More obscure goodies from the Frome by-election: Antony Green (http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/02/frome-by-electi.html#more) has determined that but for a particular innovative way the South Australian system deals with certain votes that would be ruled informal in other systems, Brock would not have won.

Oepty
04-02-2009, 07:31 PM
I have not followed Frome by-election at all, but the Liberals claimed victory. Oops.
Scott

Garvinator
16-02-2009, 12:54 PM
Looks like Qld will be off to the polls by the end of March. Any number of reasons could be chosen as the reason for the early poll.

Desmond
16-02-2009, 01:53 PM
Looks like Qld will be off to the polls by the end of March. Any number of reasons could be chosen as the reason for the early poll.No according to Bligh we won't.

Bligh says no Qld election yet (http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/bligh-says-no-qld-election-yet-20090215-880s.html)
Premier Anna Bligh says she remains committed to a full-term September election in Queensland despite overt preparations for the poll continuing on Sunday.

Ms Bligh launched a website funded by the Labor Party called Anna4Qld, announced that two long-serving senior parliamentarians would not stand at the next poll, and laughed off mounting rumours that she could call an election as early as Tuesday.

"Other people can speculate about elections," Ms Bligh said.

"I'm not going to speculate about it. I've made my position clear. Nothing's changed."

Kevin Bonham
16-02-2009, 05:12 PM
Same kind of speculation here where the incumbent Premier, David Bartlett, is picking up in the polls (Tassie opinion polls are very unreliable; if they say Labor's +5 over the Libs it's probably a lot more than that) and is due to go to an election by March 2010. Same response to it as well.

Garvinator
16-02-2009, 09:28 PM
No according to Bligh we won't.

Bligh says no Qld election yet (http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/bligh-says-no-qld-election-yet-20090215-880s.html)
Premier Anna Bligh says she remains committed to a full-term September election in Queensland despite overt preparations for the poll continuing on Sunday.

Ms Bligh launched a website funded by the Labor Party called Anna4Qld, announced that two long-serving senior parliamentarians would not stand at the next poll, and laughed off mounting rumours that she could call an election as early as Tuesday.

"Other people can speculate about elections," Ms Bligh said.

"I'm not going to speculate about it. I've made my position clear. Nothing's changed."
Now come on Boris, I expected more from you and better than this. Don't tell me you are this gullible and are now believing politicians when they tell you that they are not going to call an election ;)

We were set to go to the polls a few weeks ago, until Anna realised that by doing that that some of her Labor mates would miss out on their pensions for life under the eight year rule (if they did not serve eight years in parliament, they dont qualify for pensions for life), so she delayed the election till after they all qualified.

Of course a premier would only do this if she/he thought they were going to lose those seats. Not much confidence in those Labor members hey :whistle:

Desmond
18-02-2009, 10:31 AM
Yeah much better to believe political commentators who speculate that she will call it early. They have to fill their columns with something. :rolleyes:

Garvinator
18-02-2009, 05:25 PM
Yeah much better to believe political commentators who speculate that she will call it early. They have to fill their columns with something. :rolleyes:
I am not going on the say so of the political commentators per se, but on what I see from multiple sources and from non political commentators as well.

Probably one of the biggest clues about an upcoming election is that the AEC called for people to apply for scrutineer positions in Qld last December. So with training provided etc that would lay the timetable for a March or so election. No point training up a heap of people if the election is going to be in September.

I think the chances of the Qld Labor Government running to September are zero. Boris, if you believe Anna Bligh will run till September, care to put a small wager on it?

Desmond
18-02-2009, 09:03 PM
I am not going on the say so of the political commentators per se, but on what I see from multiple sources and from non political commentators as well.Sources such as ...?


Probably one of the biggest clues about an upcoming election is that the AEC called for people to apply for scrutineer positions in Qld last December. So with training provided etc that would lay the timetable for a March or so election. No point training up a heap of people if the election is going to be in September.Cool, no doubt you can find some articles from December that state the election will be held in March for that reason.


I think the chances of the Qld Labor Government running to September are zero. Boris, if you believe Anna Bligh will run till September, care to put a small wager on it?I don't recall saying that. Out of interest, what would be your terms?

Kevin Bonham
19-02-2009, 10:38 PM
Having a look at the current wrap at Poll Bludger (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/02/19/perfect-the-next/) it's looking like this one's more than idle speculation and there may well be action within the next few weeks.

Though for what it's worth:


Probably one of the biggest clues about an upcoming election is that the AEC called for people to apply for scrutineer positions in Qld last December. So with training provided etc that would lay the timetable for a March or so election. No point training up a heap of people if the election is going to be in September.

Queensland elections are run by this mob (http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/asp/index.asp), not the AEC.

But even if it was the ECQ who made that call, they may have just been learning from other state electoral commissions that have been caught off guard by early elections and performed incompetently as a result.

Desmond
20-02-2009, 08:12 AM
"Labor’s retiring Queensland MPs have made three seats available for new passengers on the Anna Bligh express ride to death or glory."

:lol:

Desmond
23-02-2009, 11:22 AM
Bligh to call Qld election for March 21 (http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/755804/bligh-to-call-qld-election-for-march-21)

Garvinator
23-02-2009, 11:52 AM
Do you still want that bet Boris ;)

Desmond
23-02-2009, 11:59 AM
Do you still want that bet Boris ;)You didn't when I asked. :hand:

Kevin Bonham
24-02-2009, 02:03 AM
An issue worth watching in close seats is that the Greens are threatening to refuse to direct preferences, which may lead to high exhaust rates under the optional preferential system.

However if Labor's lead on primaries across the state as a whole is large enough, it will not matter.

Kevin Bonham
26-02-2009, 12:38 AM
I hesitate to mention any Crikey related site at this moment given that they have just incompetently and incorrectly cut my email subscription despite acknowledging receipt of my renewal (and despite two emails from me saying I was incorrectly getting impending-expiry emails).

However, there is a blog called Pineapple Party Time (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncentral/) with coverage and electoral analysis of the election by various psepho bloggers that some may find of interest.

I am getting the impression that although the Labor Government is unimpressive and its campaigning superficial, it will very likely be returned because the Opposition is a rabble led by a dimwit. Are these perceptions reasonable? :D

Basil
26-02-2009, 04:36 AM
I am getting the impression that although the Labor Government is unimpressive and its campaigning superficial, it will very likely be returned because the Opposition is a rabble led by a dimwit. Are these perceptions reasonable? :D
I might be biased :eek:, or I might be entirely accurate, or both depending on one's orientation. Anyhoo...
Wot U sed about Laba is accurate.
Wot U sed about LNP is accuarate save for the dimwit part although he doesn't help himself with his act much.

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y105/scene66/smilies/smiley-score008.gif


Not a great deal of talent between them.
Springborg has always been a tad too negative for my liking.
Did I mention that state politics makes very little difference to very much, anywhere, ever? Even in Bjelke's time. Yup. Carry on!

Desmond
26-02-2009, 08:33 AM
Yeah the Labor gov't is pretty useless. But it was last time, and the time before that too, and still won due to even more useless opposition. Don't see that changing this year.

Beattie was a stone around their neck. He had been there too long and was associated with too many cock-ups. He left in time for Bligh to get set as leader before the next election. If Howard had done the same maybe the Liberals would be in Federal gov't today.

Kevin Bonham
27-02-2009, 01:32 AM
A Galaxy poll today returned a 50-50 2PP. Although it is early, the sample size is only 800 and this company is widely seen as returning results a little favourable to conservatives, this is worth paying attention to. The previous Galaxy was 52-48. A result around 50-50 may not be bad for Labor depending on the primary as the swing the LNP need (assuming even distribution) is a fair bit more than that.

Garvinator
27-02-2009, 02:08 AM
As usual, I think these type of across the board percentages are not that meaningful and what is more telling is what information is coming out from the marginal seats, to which I have no information at this stage.

Another factor which I think will be important is how the floods will affect voting, not from a who will vote for whom, as in a vote changer, but from a purely who can get to the polls point of view :whistle:

Remember the floods, I know they were not reported in the southern media, but they did cover half our state.

Kevin Bonham
27-02-2009, 09:12 PM
Another factor which I think will be important is how the floods will affect voting, not from a who will vote for whom, as in a vote changer, but from a purely who can get to the polls point of view :whistle:

Remember the floods, I know they were not reported in the southern media, but they did cover half our state.

I was listening to independents Liz Cunningham and Peter Wellington discussing this very issue today. The issue is not so much that people will be unable to vote - that is likely to be fixable, and voting can always be postponed in certain electorates if needs be. The issue one of them raised (I think it was Cunningham) was that large parts of the state are in such a mess that it will be very difficult to campaign effectively in them. This, of course, favours the government.

Garvinator
28-02-2009, 02:55 PM
I was listening to independents Liz Cunningham and Peter Wellington discussing this very issue today. The issue is not so much that people will be unable to vote - that is likely to be fixable, and voting can always be postponed in certain electorates if needs be. The issue one of them raised (I think it was Cunningham) was that large parts of the state are in such a mess that it will be very difficult to campaign effectively in them. This, of course, favours the government.
It favours the government in this case because the government is Labor and we are talking about a country area which is likely to vote LNP/independant.

If the seats are postponed till after March 21 and the rest of the state votes on March 21, it is highly likely that a result will be known before those delayed seats will go to the polls, making their seats irrelevant to the overall contest, to which I am sure the Labor strategist teams factored in before deciding when to call the election.

Garvinator
06-03-2009, 10:39 PM
Latest reported polling out from Galaxy showing 51/49 lead for LNP. Would like to see polling from other polling groups to see if this is truly representative.

Not sure who this result advantages though. The general sentiment seemed to be that Labor was going to be returned and so there was a good chance of a protest vote, so if this protest vote was high enough and there was already enough people wanting to vote LNP/minority parties, then Labor could have been rolled ie Goss in 95.

Now with this poll and especially if there is another one like it, LNP could be seen as a real chance of winning and so the idea of just giving a protest vote for the sake of a protest vote goes away.

Of course, for those that want to see Labor lose the election, these polls can give them real cause for inspiration to rally the cause and get more people to vote LNP primary as it is not just a wasted vote as they are voting for a genuine chance of becoming the next government.

Kevin Bonham
13-03-2009, 07:58 PM
Latest reported polling out from Galaxy showing 51/49 lead for LNP. Would like to see polling from other polling groups to see if this is truly representative.

Most recent Newspoll (released about a week ago) was the same.


Now with this poll and especially if there is another one like it, LNP could be seen as a real chance of winning and so the idea of just giving a protest vote for the sake of a protest vote goes away.

Yes, it brings the scare campaign factor into play; Labor can say that if people vote for the LNP it might actually win and see if that's enough to scare them into not doing so. But whether voters will care is another question. Both parties appear to be too boring to actually scare anyone.

When I commented back in late Feb it was looking like the campaign would be a walk in the park for Labor but it looks a lot closer now and it's clear that some in Labor are seriously panicking.

However we have still to see which way undecided voters break and in such a boring campaign they will usually break for the government.

eclectic
13-03-2009, 08:23 PM
is the fate of bligh dependant on whether the electorate mutiny over the bounty? :uhoh:

Kevin Bonham
13-03-2009, 08:25 PM
is the fate of bligh dependant on whether the electorate mutiny over the bounty? :uhoh:

:lol: Some of them might mutiny over the Pacific Adventurer.

Garvinator
13-03-2009, 10:20 PM
However we have still to see which way undecided voters break and in such a boring campaign they will usually break for the government.I think more of a factor is that most of the voters believe that neither side can fix the states many problems :lol:.

Garvinator
14-03-2009, 05:06 PM
For the Qlders on here, was anyone else aware that there was a leaders debate last night or so. Completely missed, was not even aware it was held until reading about it in the paper today. So clearly it was well advertised as this is stuff that I usually do not miss at least hearing about, even if I do not watch it.

Garvinator
14-03-2009, 05:06 PM
:lol: Some of them might mutiny over the Pacific Adventurer.
Nah, they will all be drowned ;)

Desmond
14-03-2009, 05:26 PM
For the Qlders on here, was anyone else aware that there was a leaders debate last night or so. Completely missed, was not even aware it was held until reading about it in the paper today. So clearly it was well advertised as this is stuff that I usually do not miss at least hearing about, even if I do not watch it.I was aware of it it but didn't bother watching. Highlight package on the news was uninspiring.

Kevin Bonham
14-03-2009, 05:35 PM
Springborg attracted some criticism for interrupting his opponent. Various reviews of the debate I saw on average rated it an inconclusive win to Bligh and generally regarded it as boring. I can't be bothered listening to it all.

Capablanca-Fan
16-03-2009, 10:44 AM
The Labor Party say to us in Queensland, ‘where is the money coming from’ — we simply say to them, where has all the money gone? — Lawrence Springborg

Kevin Bonham
18-03-2009, 09:50 PM
Some predictions from psephologists re the result of the Qld election that I have seen:

William Bowe (The Poll Bludger) 45 ALP, 40 LNP, 4 IND
Ben Raue (The Tally Room) 42 ALP, 42 LNP, 5 IND
Peter Brent (Mumble) LNP narrow win, no seat breakdown yet.

Basil
18-03-2009, 10:18 PM
One of our clients used his full page advertisement for a political message this week (against the government). He then proceeded to buy the same ad on two other pages!

The ad(s) may be viewed at:
http://www.scenemagazine.com.au/read/index.html

It appears on pages 16, 32 & 44.

Kevin Bonham
18-03-2009, 10:23 PM
Interesting. Do you know in what connection Bligh is seen as a threat to "nightlife"?

By the way, re all the Bligh puns, apparently she is a direct descendent of the deposed NSW Governor!

Basil
18-03-2009, 10:59 PM
Interesting. Do you know in what connection Bligh is seen as a threat to "nightlife"?
Her government is presently under fire because:
1) The 3am lock-out
I'm in favour incidentally, but the industry and the punters aren't.

2) Massive (truly staggering and eye-popping) liquor licence hikes.
Seen as straight revenue raising. Hundreds of venues across Queensland cannot afford and failed to meet the second deadline (last week I believe) at which point the venues were deemed to have been trading illegally. The government has not enforced its own threat of closing venues which failed to pay. A knock-on effect of anger is now from the venues who paid under duress wanting to know why they bothered.

3) Two other fees
- one of $1,200 for security personnel to be registered (and trained)
- one (of approx $100 and requiring three hours) for bar staff to be retrained every three years, primarily on RSA (responsible serving alcohol). Seen as overkill.

Garvinator
18-03-2009, 11:11 PM
Her government is presently under fire because:
1) The 3am lock-out
I'm in favour incidentally, but the industry and the punters aren't.
There is a second connected issue here. It is not just the 3am lock out, but the lack of transport options for people who want to go home. So you have a lot of people who are trying to get home and not a lot of options in how to do so, which leads to angry people, fights etc.

There are one set of buses every hour to the major transport hubs, one set of trains every hour only on half the train lines and a major shortage of cabs in the city. That is it.

Basically the public transport for the 3am lock out is a disgrace and in my opinion is just another symptom of our state Labor Government.

Desmond
19-03-2009, 08:38 AM
I'm going to vote LNP. Main 2 reasons are that Springborg has impressed during the campaign, and Labor's campaign has been too negative and grubby.

pappubahry
19-03-2009, 10:01 AM
I hate the Nationals too much to vote for Springborg's party. Though if the LNP win a bunch of SEQ seats and evolves into a Liberal-dominated party then I won't mind.

Kevin Bonham
19-03-2009, 10:00 PM
A point about incumbency made by Charles Richardson was this: there seems to have been a decline over time in the willingness of state and federal voters to give a government a fifth term. Only one of five state or federal governments going for a fifth term since 1975 has been successful (Federal, 1993) but pre-1975, ten out of twelve such governments going for fifth terms succeeded.

Might be small sample size. Might not.

Garvinator
20-03-2009, 07:07 PM
Apparently the money has been coming thick and fast for the LNP, which is usually what I use as a better guide for who is going to win, rather than opinion polls.

Labor still leads in the betting markets from what I was seeing in the papers, but all the late money is for LNP. The betting can be influence of course by people believing it is a 50/50 race, but are getting $2.50 for the LNP, so are taking those odds, where if they were only being offered even money, they would not be betting.

Pauline Hanson is considered a 'good' chance of winning Beaudesert. I have been having more than a few chuckles at the prospect of a hung parliament with Peter Wellington, Liz Cunningham and Pauline Hanson as the Independants :whistle: :P

Kevin Bonham
20-03-2009, 07:33 PM
Apparently the money has been coming thick and fast for the LNP, which is usually what I use as a better guide for who is going to win, rather than opinion polls.

Yes, it's come down to about $2.10-$2.30 for the LNP now with Labor blowing out to $1.60-$1.72. Not sure if there's enough of it for the LNP to start favourite.

Betting markets are an excellent guide where the market is well informed. In WA they were wrong because there was insufficient polling to inform the market.


Pauline Hanson is considered a 'good' chance of winning Beaudesert.

I'd be interested to know by who, apart from mug punters. Heard one qualified analyst on Radio National this afternoon (and I think it was Paul Williams) say she didn't have a snowflake's chance. Even with the sympathy vote from the nude photos thing, it's hard to see how a candidate who can only poll about 4% for the Senate these days is supposed to win an electorate with no-one preferencing her.

[EDIT: But on the other side, there's this: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/hanson-may-hold-key-to-power/2009/03/20/1237055049490.html]


I have been having more than a few chuckles at the prospect of a hung parliament with Peter Wellington, Liz Cunningham and Pauline Hanson as the Independants :whistle: :P

A hung parliament with Hanson in it would be utterly hilarious.

A concern for Labor is that if it cannot win a majority in its own right, it could well be that all of the crossbenchers side with the LNP and throw it out.

Kevin Bonham
21-03-2009, 07:06 PM
Swing's falling short of expectations at the moment. Looks like undecideds sticking with the government at the last minute as they often do.

Kevin Bonham
21-03-2009, 07:26 PM
Gee, I was hoping for a long and interesting night watching this one but it's quite a fizzer. ABC computer predicting 53-33-3.

eclectic
21-03-2009, 07:37 PM
well let's give credit where credit is due:

anna bligh the first woman leader to win an election in her own right

Desmond
21-03-2009, 07:50 PM
Yes, they were predicting an all-nighter but it turned out to be a comprehensive win by Bligh.

Kevin Bonham
21-03-2009, 08:08 PM
well let's give credit where credit is due:

anna bligh the first woman leader to win an election in her own right

First to do so in an Australian State. A significant piece of herstory, although the idea that it was hard for women to do this had been given bad press by the appointment of Kirner and Lawrence as lame-duck premiers of doomed governments.

At Territory level Clare Martin (NT) won from Opposition and was then re-elected very easily. Rosemary Follett and Kate Carnell both served as Chief Minister of the ACT but neither ever won a majority.

Garvinator
21-03-2009, 08:11 PM
Swing's falling short of expectations at the moment. Looks like undecideds sticking with the government at the last minute as they often do.
The most inaccurate result so far as been the polling from galaxy polling. Are they sure they were polling from this galaxy? :whistle: certainly was not from the state of Qld. :lol:

Kevin Bonham
21-03-2009, 08:26 PM
Yeah, it will be a big kick in the pants for them after their good results so far despite constant suspicion of pro-Coalition bias. Once again (as per Nielsen's shocker at the federal poll) it showed that if you want to get it right you need to poll right up til the final days.

Newspoll with primaries of 41.7/42.1 (currently running 43/40.9) weren't too bad.

Kevin Bonham
23-03-2009, 05:30 PM
Comment from Jono on another thread re Labor being tossed out:


Yet it didn't happen on Saturday despite the polls.

It's worth noting that the polls never actually showed the LNP winning. They did show it ahead on 2PP (49-51) at various stages but because of the non-uniform distribution of seat swings, even that would probably not have been enough.

The result was within the margin of error of every individual poll conducted, but I don't think it was within the MOE if you combine all the polls. But all that proves is that some people make up their minds very late - and these will usually vote for the government.

Basil
23-03-2009, 08:12 PM
Comment from Jono on another thread re Labor being tossed out:


Yet it didn't happen on Saturday despite the polls.
A swing of approx 3% to the LNP while required a swing of approx 6%. It was on to be sure (IMO), but as you say it didn't happen. About an extra 1.3 people in a 100 needed to change their vote.

There is normally some big partying and some small gloating that goes on when either side wins at any level of politics. Not this time.

What I sense from the LNP's side...
sheer bewilderment that Laba, having bludgeoned its way through incompetence and wastefulness for a decade has been reinstated on the back of a huge swing against it.

What I sense from Laba's side... (the polis and the supporters) ...
I detect nothing but also bewilderment ... and a nasty, nasty knowledge that apart from escaping by the skin of their teeth, the difference at the end of the day was that dirty little negative smear and fear campaign while the good guy resisted the same tactic.

Comparing the two speeches on the night was interesting. I'm sure I could hear the swingers around the state (who succumbed to the neg advertising) thinking to themsleves ... WTF have I done? ;)

Kevin Bonham
23-03-2009, 11:38 PM
About an extra 1.3 people in a 100 needed to change their vote.

No, it would have to be a lot more than that because of the way the swings are distributed by seat. Nearly all the seats Labor won were won comfortably. On the current figures a further 3.5% swing (not 1.3%) would have been needed to remove Labor from majority. They got about halfway there.


What I sense from the LNP's side...
sheer bewilderment that Laba, having bludgeoned its way through incompetence and wastefulness for a decade has been reinstated on the back of a huge swing against it.

A 3-4% swing is substantial but it's not exactly baseball-bat territory, especially not when the last one was extremely one-sided (as were the two before that).

As for smears and negativity, I thought it was all pretty standard. The Opposition asserts that the Government is hopeless and the Government asserts that the Opposition can't be trusted.

Garvinator
24-03-2009, 12:02 AM
As for smears and negativity, I thought it was all pretty standard. The Opposition asserts that the Government is hopeless and the Government asserts that the Opposition can't be trusted.
And the main issue for the opposition was that both sides were right :lol:

Basil
24-03-2009, 10:47 AM
Here we go again!

You statement makes the same mistakes I did in the last election - easily done. Re: swings and people. A swing is double the people shift. That is a 5% swing means 2.5 people switched.

I actually made the same mistake in this thread and corrected it some hours before you came on.


On the current figures a further 3.5% swing (not 1.3%) would have been needed to remove Labor from majority.
I said 1.3 people switching, not 1.3%. Those missing 1.3 people represent a further swing of 2.6%


A 3-4% swing is substantial but it's not exactly baseball-bat territory, especially not when the last one was extremely one-sided (as were the two before that).
It's big. We all talked about the one-sided whopping last time. This time I'm talking about the coming home.


As for smears and negativity, I thought it was all pretty standard.
Nope.

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2009, 01:54 PM
Here we go again!

You statement makes the same mistakes I did in the last election - easily done. Re: swings and people. A swing is double the people shift. That is a 5% swing means 2.5 people switched.

Incorrect. At least as used by Australian psephologists, a 5% swing means 5 people switched out of every 100 total voters (not just out of every 100 who voted for that party). eg 53/47 to 48/52 two-party preferred is a 5% swing, or a change in primary vote from 45 to 40 is a 5% swing.

The change in margin is double the swing, so a 5-point swing produces a 10-point change in margin.

For instance here are the results for the seat of Aston (http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-197.htm) in the last Fed election. Aston went from 63/37 to 55/45 meaning that out of every 100 electors, roughly 8 switched from Liberal to Labor. The swing is shown as 8.1%.

I am a published psephologist. It's reasonably safe to assume that I know what a swing is. :D

Basil
24-03-2009, 05:00 PM
Incorrect. I am a published psephologist. It's reasonably safe to assume that I know what a swing is. :D
Right. I'm not going to argue with that and I stand corrected on my understanding of the term. Thank you for the clarification on the terminology.

Now, back to my original and that I still hold that 1.5* people in a hundred needed to switch their vote, and that 1.5 people had their heads seriously screwed with by the negative campaign.

*originally posted as 1.3

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2009, 07:34 PM
Now, back to my original and that I still hold that 1.5* people in a hundred needed to switch their vote, and that 1.5 people had their heads seriously screwed with by the negative campaign.

The ABC is currently showing Labor leading in 50 seats. Labor needed 45 to win majority government so it would have had to lose another 6 to lose its majority (which would probably have meant loss of office). These are its current 2PP readings in the 6 closest seats:

Everton 50.6
Cook 52.1
Broadwater 52.2
Barron River 52.3
Whitsunday 52.9
Toowoomba North 53.5

That is why I said it was 3.5 people (it moves about a bit) not 1.whatever. It might look like 1.whatever on a statewide basis but the seat-by-seat picture made it much much harder for the LNP to win.

Of course, that is assuming the swing is distributed the same in every seat. If you assume otherwise you can swing most elections by changing the votes of a fraction of one percent of the voters.

Basil
24-03-2009, 07:56 PM
The ABC is currently showing Labor leading in 50 seats. Labor needed 45 to win majority government so it would have had to lose another 6 to lose its majority (which would probably have meant loss of office). These are its current 2PP readings in the 6 closest seats:

Everton 50.6
Cook 52.1
Broadwater 52.2
Barron River 52.3
Whitsunday 52.9
Toowoomba North 53.5

That is why I said it was 3.5 people (it moves about a bit) not 1.whatever. It might look like 1.whatever on a statewide basis but the seat-by-seat picture made it much much harder for the LNP to win.

Of course, that is assuming the swing is distributed the same in every seat. If you assume otherwise you can swing most elections by changing the votes of a fraction of one percent of the voters.
Thanks. Good post and I agree with your thrust.

Fine-tuning (entirely for for my bias :lol:), and lose the sixth seat (let's say hung parliament to wipe the smile off Rudd and Bligh ;)) and then we don't need Toowoomba Nth.

That's gets me to 2.9 people maximum (better than 3.something!) and then only looking for 2.9 in one seat before we hit the low twos.

However, I'll finish where I started and refer you back to my first line. Thanks.

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2009, 08:21 PM
Thanks. Good post and I agree with your thrust.

Fine-tuning (entirely for for my bias :lol:), and lose the sixth seat (let's say hung parliament to wipe the smile off Rudd and Bligh ;)) and then we don't need Toowoomba Nth.

That's gets me to 2.9 people maximum (better than 3.something!) and then only looking for 2.9 in one seat before we hit the low twos.

If you exclude Toowoomba North, Labor only loses 5 and has 50-5=45 which is still a majority of one in the 89-seat house. T Nth needs to go as well before you get a hung parliament.

This is well worth looking at because it is what the LNP will need to win next time. It won't be that much - just moderate swings in half a dozen or so seats and Labor is at least out of majority. They certainly can do it, if they resist the urge to disintegrate.

(Labor might yet hold one or two more seats as well as those listed, so it might be the LNP has to win, say, eight.)

Basil
24-03-2009, 08:24 PM
Good o. Thanks again for your commentary and analysis.

Kevin Bonham
03-04-2009, 01:07 AM
On top of the 50 Labor were leading in when I made the post above, they have provisionally won Chatsworth by 93 votes subject to recount. They were also provisionally the winners in Redlands by 19 votes but apparently recounting has found a few little piles of misplaced votes and the LNP are back in front in that one by 34. Cleveland (LNP by 147) is also being recounted. So it's leaning towards 51 ALP, 34 LNP, 4 IND.

Gold Coast ex-Lib John Paul Langbroek is the new LNP leader with Springborg as deputy. Any comments from Queensland posters on Langbroek?

Garvinator
03-04-2009, 01:59 AM
On top of the 50 Labor were leading in when I made the post above, they have provisionally won Chatsworth by 93 votes subject to recount. They were also provisionally the winners in Redlands by 19 votes but apparently recounting has found a few little piles of misplaced votes and the LNP are back in front in that one by 34. Cleveland (LNP by 147) is also being recounted. So it's leaning towards 51 ALP, 34 LNP, 4 IND. I am more interested in how many dead people managed to vote in these seats ;) After the election, that was supposed to be an issue that the LNP was going to be going to the courts if they lost the seats :lol:

Desmond
03-04-2009, 07:49 AM
Gold Coast ex-Lib John Paul Langbroek is the new LNP leader with Springborg as deputy. Any comments from Queensland posters on Langbroek?Never heard of him.

Basil
03-04-2009, 10:42 AM
Meh. The same affliction that all state pollies have in opposition.

Kevin Bonham
02-05-2009, 05:43 PM
Three of the 15 seats in the Tasmanian dinosaur house went to the polls today. Unlike most states where the Lower House has single-member seats and the Upper House has multi-member seats, Tassie is the other way round.
The upshot of this is that it is quite difficult to win a majority in the Lower House here, but more or less impossible in the Upper House. Because it is seen as a house of review, voters are more reluctant to vote for parties, and the seats tend to be won by "independents" (who tend to be conservative; some are closet Liberals).

Anyway prior to today the Upper House had 4 Labor and 11 Independent members, one of whom is ex-Labor (he is still a member of the rank and file ALP but was expelled from the PLP).

Facing the people today are one Labor MLC and one independent one, with another seat formerly held by an independent being vacated.

I will be posting waffle in the comments section at http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ as results start coming in from about 6:30 onwards.

Kevin Bonham
11-05-2009, 05:18 PM
Facing the people today are one Labor MLC and one independent one, with another seat formerly held by an independent being vacated.

Labor MLC won comfortably, but not quite as comfortably as he should have.
Conservative independent won comfortably with the supposedly unpopular pulp mill (which he is gung-ho in favour of and which would be built in his electorate) a virtual non-factor. Green vote fairly high in that seat, but not astronomically so.
Vacant seat won by ex-Labor independent with surprising ease.
Results spun as good state election portent by parties of all stripes, all of them unconvincingly.

Next state politics action is next weekend's by-election for Fremantle (WA). This one is interesting because the Greens polled 27.6% at the 2008 state election and only just missed running second (on Green prefs Labor won 62-38). Since Labor are vacating it the Liberals have wisely decided to avoid the ignominy of running third and increase the chance of embarrassing Labor by not contesting.

Kevin Bonham
16-05-2009, 09:56 PM
Greens leading in Fremantle - currently projected at around 53:47 over Labor, although it isn't over yet. [EDIT: Ten minutes later it is; clearly a Green win.]

This is one they might have a chance of holding at the next state election too, since the Libs can't win the seat and could well run dead again if there's a Green incumbent; even if the Libs did run they'd probably finish third.

pappubahry
16-05-2009, 10:07 PM
This is one they might have a chance of holding at the next state election too, since the Libs can't win the seat and could well run dead again if there's a Green incumbent; even if the Libs did run they'd probably finish third.
No chance of them directing preferences to Labor? That's happened occasionally at state level, though I can only think of two cases in upper houses (one in Vic and one in SA from memory).

Kevin Bonham
16-05-2009, 11:57 PM
No chance of them directing preferences to Labor? That's happened occasionally at state level, though I can only think of two cases in upper houses (one in Vic and one in SA from memory).

In this case with Labor recently damaged by an unexpected state election loss the Libs were very happy to rub it in by giving the seat to the Greens, rather than running themselves, losing and taking the gloss of their state result.

Sometimes in upper houses (where the Greens more often have a real chance) the Libs will preference Labor, either for strategic reasons or because keeping the Greens out is what the Lib supporters want.

There was a Liberal-style independent running in this one annoyed that the Libs were just giving away the seat to the Greens, but he only got a few percent.

Garvinator
17-05-2009, 12:16 AM
On a slightly different issue, the NO vote got up in the daylight saving vote in WA referendum.

Kevin Bonham
17-05-2009, 12:21 AM
On a slightly different issue, the NO vote got up in the daylight saving vote in WA referendum.

Yes, and it wasn't even close (44.5:55.5). Fourth time it has been rejected by the voters there.

Garvinator
17-05-2009, 12:28 AM
Yes, and it wasn't even close (44.5:55.5). Fourth time it has been rejected by the voters there.
I do wonder if those states that currently have daylight saving actually had a referendum on whether to keep it or not whether it would be passed or not.

What do the others think? I ask being from a non daylight saving state and being someone who wants daylight saving!

Kevin Bonham
17-05-2009, 12:50 AM
I do wonder if those states that currently have daylight saving actually had a referendum on whether to keep it or not whether it would be passed or not.

Outside of wartime, daylight savings was introduced in Tas in 1968 with NSW, Vic and SA following a few years later. (Qld had a trial in 1971 but abandoned it).
NSW approved one to retain daylight savings in 1976.
SA did the same in 1982.
Tasmania has never had a referendum, and I'm pretty sure Victoria hasn't either.
Qld reintroduced DS in 1989 but canned it when a referendum voted against it in 1992.

Desmond
17-05-2009, 08:29 AM
I wish there were a consistent decision country-wide. There must be a tangible cost attached for national companies who need to cover that extra hour.

Basil
17-05-2009, 10:52 AM
I wish there were a consistent decision country-wide. There must be a tangible cost attached for national companies who need to cover that extra hour.
Yeah baby!

Davidflude
17-05-2009, 11:18 AM
The closer you are to the north or south poles the more effective daylight savings is. So it works well in Victoria but less well in New South Wales and even less well in Queensland.

CameronD
17-05-2009, 02:15 PM
I wish there were a consistent decision country-wide. There must be a tangible cost attached for national companies who need to cover that extra hour.

The Commonwealth only have limited powers (s52 of the Constitution by memory) as originally the colonies werent totally behind the commonwealth and forfeited limited powers.

Its not reasonable for daylight saving in brisbane as it'll still be light at 8pm which is to late.

pappubahry
17-05-2009, 02:53 PM
Its not reasonable for daylight saving in brisbane as it'll still be light at 8pm which is to late.
The DST brigade actually like the sun being out really late. :huh: :confused: :eh:

Kevin Bonham
17-05-2009, 04:04 PM
Its not reasonable for daylight saving in brisbane as it'll still be light at 8pm which is to late.

Still light at 9:15 pm in summer down here!

CameronD
17-05-2009, 06:07 PM
Qld Premier Anna Bligh has just stated that she can not keep her election promises from 2 months ago due to the financial crises and that they are now scraped.

Igor_Goldenberg
17-05-2009, 09:21 PM
Qld Premier Anna Bligh has just stated that she can not keep her election promises from 2 months ago due to the financial crises and that they are now scraped.
She was, of course, not aware of financial crisis two months ago.

CameronD
17-05-2009, 09:59 PM
She was, of course, not aware of financial crisis two months ago.

They should make them register their promises with a time frame. Failure triggers fresh elections. Then they would be more realistic with what they say.

Capablanca-Fan
19-05-2009, 11:09 AM
Gerald Henderson: why on earth do the Liberals help the loony left Greens to win (http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/greens-profit-from-liberal-largesse-20090518-bcn5.html?page=-1), since they are even worse than Labor?

Kevin Bonham
19-05-2009, 02:26 PM
Henderson's probably wrong about this:


The evidence suggests nearly all traditional Liberal voters supported Carles over Tagliaferri.

No, what happened is that Labor preselected a deliberately very mainstream candidate with strong business links. He succeeded in attracting many votes from the non-contesting Liberals but his selection lost Labor votes to the Greens in similar numbers. So the flow of votes from Lib to Green was not that overwhelming and was probably less than it would have been on preferences at a state election. It just looks like a straight Lib-Green swing if you look at primary figures but booth by booth analysis shows no corellation between Liberal vote from last state election and size of gain to the Greens.

Also the idea that the Greens only won because the Libs did not contest is a furphy. The Libs only marginally stayed ahead of the Greens in the main election in this seat and probably would have run third had they contested the by-election.

The strategic advantage for the Libs in trying to give Labor seats to the Greens are clear. Firstly if the Libs are going to lose an election they would probably rather see a hung parliament than an outright Labor majority. Secondly there is very little resource effort required to preference the Greens in a seat you're not fighting in anyway, but it then forces Labor to defend that seat against the Greens, spreading Labor's resources thinner.

Finally even if the Greens preference-swap with the Liberals, Green supporters will still preference Labor anyway. This always happens, except in the Senate.

Basil
19-05-2009, 02:46 PM
No, what happened is that Labor preselected a deliberately very mainstream candidate with strong business links.
:hmm: Was he mugged and sedated? :lol: I've never met such a beast unless you're talking about a fat and fatuous bloated big biz mingler (who has in fact very little to do with business).

Igor_Goldenberg
19-05-2009, 04:15 PM
It is telling that Greens highest primary vote comes from seats of Melbourne and Sydney, e.g. inner-city professionals who probably see trees only in the pictures and never in a real life. Their only knowledge of the environment comes from reading opinion column in newspaper.

kjenhager
19-05-2009, 04:27 PM
It is telling that Greens highest primary vote comes from seats of Melbourne and Sydney, e.g. inner-city professionals who probably see trees only in the pictures and never in a real life. Their only knowledge of the environment comes from reading opinion column in newspaper.
:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

Capablanca-Fan
19-05-2009, 04:34 PM
We sputter against The Polluted Environment—as if it was invented in the age of the automobile. We compare our smoggy air not with the odor of horsedung and the plague of flies and the smells of garbage and human excrement which filled cities in the past, but with the honey-suckle perfumes of some nonexistent City Beautiful. We forget that even if the water in many cities today is not as spring-pure nor as palatable as we would like, for most of history the water of the cities (and of the countryside) was undrinkable. We reproach ourselves for the ills of disease and malnourishment, and forget that until recently enteritis and measles and whooping cough, diphtheria and typhoid, were killing diseases of childhood, puerperal fever plagued mothers in childbirth, polio was a summer monster.—Daniel Boorstin, “A Case of Hypochondria”, Newsweek , 6 July 1970, p. 28.

“You must know that the world has grown old, and does not remain in its former vigor. It bears witness to its own decline. The rainfall and the sun’s warmth are both diminishing; the metals are nearly exhausted…”—Cyprian, Ad Demetrium, 3rd century.

Capablanca-Fan
02-07-2009, 10:03 PM
NSW Liberals bottom of the class
Janet Albrechtsen
The Australian, 1 July 2009


THERE is nothing more disheartening or dishonourable than a party without principles. In that vein, it is time for the NSW Liberal Party to change its name to something more fitting. The Other Mob will do. Last week, under leader Barry O’Farrell, the party showed it has no commitment to core Liberal Party values.

Not only did it oppose the privatisation of lotteries in NSW, just as it voted against the privatisation of electricity last year. Now it has decided to vote against the publication of school rankings, which has long been part of the Liberal Party platform. It was a weird time to side with the far-left agenda of the Greens and the teachers unions when the Labor Party has finally seen the sense of education reforms long pursued by the federal Liberal Party to empower parents and help students.

To understand just how craven the NSW Liberal Party has become, one needs to understand the seismic shift that has taken place on an issue as fundamental as requiring schools to provide information to parents about the performance of a school. Under John Howard, the Liberal Party promoted the importance of parents having the basic right to know whether schools funded by tax dollars were serving their children well.

In 2004, then education minister Brendan Nelson introduced legislation that required the states to make available information about student performance as a critical new measure of accountability.

Revealing their disregard for students, powerful teachers unions baulked at such reforms. Instead, their aim was — and remains — to protect their vested interests and influence in a system that has long covered up school failure and teacher incompetence.

....

Against that background of an emerging consensus about commonsense principles of education reform, the blundering NSW Liberal Party reveals itself as a party devoid of both common sense and principles. By siding with the Greens in the Upper House, O’Farrell’s Other Mob amended the state education act to punish newspapers with fines of up to $55,000 if they use new information to publish league tables of schools.

Not only did O’Farrell sell out Liberal Party principles, he did so knowing that he cannot stop the production of tables on the internet. Nelson was right to be disappointed. He told The Australian that he was “not an advocate of government-constructed league tables but if someone wants to construct a league table on the basis of publicly available information, they should be able to do so. The last time I looked, this was a free society.”

O’Farrell has shown that under his leadership, the party’s commitment to Liberal Party values is a sham. As Andrew Clennell reported in The Sydney Morning Herald last week, when Howard was in opposition he supported the sale of the Commonwealth Bank and Qantas because it was part of the Liberal Party’s unwavering economic agenda. But O’Farrell is an altogether different creature, choosing to block the sale of the state’s electricity assets — despite the overwhelming economics — because, as he told new Liberal member Mike Baird, “It’s politics, mate.”

...

Gillard is spot on (http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25719094-5005941,00.html):


Calling the ban “ridiculous, pointless and opportunistic”, Ms Gillard added: “(Opposition Leader)Barry O’Farrell has put his personal political opportunism in front of the needs of NSW school children. He has engaged in political vandalism…

Kevin Bonham
27-07-2009, 10:20 PM
A rather odd electoral event coming up down here next weekend - a Legislative Council by-election.

The Labor incumbent, who had been one of four Labor members in the otherwise supposedly independent upper house, was pushed to resign following a nepotism scandal in which it was revealed she had several members of her own family on staff and had blown her staffing budget. Yes, she had been in parliament for eight years and this had only just come up as a problem.

Anyway the Liberals endorsed a candidate for the by-election although they have not endorsed anyone for a Leg Council seat for about nine years. Labor has responded by not endorsing anyone, although there is one ALP member running as "Independent Labor" and also the widow of former Labor premier Jim Bacon, yes her name really is Honey Bacon, is running as an independent.

Kevin Bonham
01-08-2009, 07:48 PM
^^^
Above was a complete fizzer of a contest. The Liberal candidate polled a healthy 38% and the Labor-aligned independents flopped so awfully that the Greens have come second on about 13% and a local councillor has come third.

The once-mighty NT Labor government is eating itself in all sorts of incredibly messy ways and it is highly likely it will either collapse or roll its leader (again) before the year is out.

Kevin Bonham
14-08-2009, 01:53 PM
The NT Labor government has survived a no-confidence motion for the time being after one of the two Independents, Gerry Wood, agreed to prop it up in exchange for a number of reforms.

Oepty
02-10-2009, 07:05 AM
South Australian Premier Mike Rann was last night attacked at a Labour Party function at the National Wine Centre. It is alleged a man attending another function in the building approached the premier from behind and hit him around the face a number of times with a rolled up newspaper before picking up a knife. He was tackled by witnesses and held until police arrived.
More details
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/stor/0,22606,26153457-5006301,00.html

Scott

Garvinator
04-10-2009, 09:00 AM
Peter Dutton's future on the line

Doubt has been cast over the future of leading Liberal frontbencher Peter Dutton after he failed to win pre-selection for a safer seat.

Mr Dutton tried to win yesterday's Liberal National Party pre-selection ballot for the Gold Coast seat of McPherson after his seat of Dickson in Brisbane's north became notionally Labor after a recent electoral redistribution.

But party members selected local mechanical engineer Karen Andrews to replace Margaret May at the next federal election.

Liberal heavyweights parachuted Mr Dutton in to the pre-selection because he's seen as a rising star in the party.
Peter Dutton's future in Dickson is certainly almost over now that he tried to bail on that seat for a safer one and will now have to try and win Dickson. I think we will be hearing about his trying to bail from the seat quite a bit between now and the election ;)

Oepty
23-11-2009, 06:42 AM
South Australian Premier Mike Rann was last night attacked at a Labour Party function at the National Wine Centre. It is alleged a man attending another function in the building approached the premier from behind and hit him around the face a number of times with a rolled up newspaper before picking up a knife. He was tackled by witnesses and held until police arrived.
More details
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/stor/0,22606,26153457-5006301,00.html

Scott

Premier Mike Rann is under siege after allegations made on TV night by the former wife of the alleged attacker that she had a sexual relationship with him. Rann has totally denied the allegations, and will go into more details later today. However with the next state election only 4 months away it will be interesting to see how much impact these allegations will have.
Scott

Desmond
23-11-2009, 11:55 AM
Kiss and tell (for money). What a tramp.

Garvinator
23-11-2009, 05:44 PM
Premier Mike Rann is under siege after allegations made on TV night by the former wife of the alleged attacker that she had a sexual relationship with him. Rann has totally denied the allegations, and will go into more details later today. However with the next state election only 4 months away it will be interesting to see how much impact these allegations will have.
Scott
I think Mike Rann has put it all on the line with adamant denials. Either he is telling the truth or is lying. If he is found that his denials are a lie, he is finished and I think so he should be.

Oepty
23-11-2009, 06:40 PM
I think Mike Rann has put it all on the line with adamant denials. Either he is telling the truth or is lying. If he is found that his denials are a lie, he is finished and I think so he should be.

He has done that and said he will take legal action against Channel 7 and New Idea.
Scott

Oepty
23-11-2009, 06:43 PM
Kiss and tell (for money). What a tramp.

If it is kiss and tell that is one thing, but it might be no kiss and make it all up which is far far worse.
Scott

Garvinator
23-11-2009, 06:45 PM
He has done that and said he will take legal action against Channel 7 and New Idea.
ScottWe see 'famous' people who feel aggrieved claiming they are going to take legal action every day to the point where when I hear someone saying they are going to take legal action, I believe they usually will not and are just threatening it.

Oepty
23-11-2009, 06:50 PM
We see 'famous' people who feel aggrieved claiming they are going to take legal action every day to the point where when I hear someone saying they are going to take legal action, I believe they usually will not and are just threatening it.

I know it might be only a threat but I think a couple of members of the SA government have taken legal action. I will try and find details.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
24-11-2009, 02:42 AM
Assuming he's suing them for defo then the payout is capped at $290K anyway unless he goes for aggravated damages. But if he doesn't sue (and sound suitably outraged), people will say he isn't suing because it's true (whether that is actually the case or not).


Kiss and tell (for money). What a tramp.

I find her comments odd. For instance (and there are many instances) she says she has accepted responsibility for her "bad behaviour" and now he should do the same. But is doing paid interviews for No Idea when you have an 11 year old son who could be harmed by the glare of publicity in goodness knows what way really how one goes about accepting responsibility for one's "bad behaviour"? I don't think so.

There seem to be two possibilities - (i) the whole thing is tacky (ii) she is tacky and the whole thing is crap. I don't know which it is but one person's word against another is definitely not enough; the question is whether there is evidence.

Of course, if she does have evidence the more he denies it the worse the damage. But even if he has been lying he is popular enough that he might still ride it out. Clinton lied all over the place about Lewinsky but would probably have won a third term had he been permitted to run for one.

Desmond
24-11-2009, 07:59 AM
I haven't been following it closely but the husband of the alleged girlie on the desk assaulting the Premier would seem to lend support to her story.

Basil
24-11-2009, 08:16 AM
But even if he has been lying he is popular enough that he might still ride it out. Clinton lied all over the place about Lewinsky but would probably have won a third term had he been permitted to run for one.
The lefty's final card - popularity. Hawke, Clinton, Rudd - no matter the disgrace or the inability - a flocking of grotesque proportions until 'The Collective' finally collectively tells each other that the man's a dud.

a61fPIgJfgs

Kevin Bonham
24-11-2009, 01:12 PM
I haven't been following it closely but the husband of the alleged girlie on the desk assaulting the Premier would seem to lend support to her story.

Maybe - or he could just be a paranoid thug.

Kevin Bonham
24-11-2009, 01:26 PM
The lefty's final card - popularity. Hawke, Clinton, Rudd - no matter the disgrace or the inability

Works for right-wingers too, eg Sarkozy.

Yes I know he's French and that is different, but still ...

Igor_Goldenberg
24-11-2009, 03:25 PM
I haven't been following it closely but the husband of the alleged girlie on the desk assaulting the Premier would seem to lend support to her story.
Indeed, wife would never lie to a husband for any reason, wouldn't she?
Even to be paid undisclosed amount from the TV network.

Desmond
24-11-2009, 03:41 PM
Indeed, wife would never lie to a husband for any reason, wouldn't she?
Even to be paid undisclosed amount from the TV network.huh?

Oepty
24-11-2009, 07:12 PM
There seem to be two possibilities - (i) the whole thing is tacky (ii) she is tacky and the whole thing is crap. I don't know which it is but one person's word against another is definitely not enough; the question is whether there is evidence.


I believe there is a statement, or at least Channel 7 have claimed there is a statement, from a girlfriend of Michelle Chantelois that Michelle Chantelois told her at the time of the alleged affair that she was having sex with the Premier.

I doubt Mike Rann will survive as leader of the Labour Party if he has lied. Apparently the Right faction will remove their support of him and he will be removed as leader, or forced to resign. Given the mess the Liberal Party is in in SA think the Labor Party could elect almost anybody as leader and still have a great chance of winning.

The latest new is Ms Chantelois has been released from a 14 day exculsivity deal with Channel 7 so will be free speak. Whether anyone will put her to air seeing it will be inviting legal action is another matter.

What a mess!!!

Scott

Kevin Bonham
27-11-2009, 01:46 AM
The Federal Liberal leadership strife will have provided some welcome breathing space for Rann. Not that I'm sure he needs it since there is still no reliable evidence of the Chantelois affair ever happening. Supposedly Channel 7 is now trying to retrieve deleted SMSs from her SIM card. Seriously, what kind of idiot would have a sexual affair with an extremely powerful politician in which she felt used and fail to retain some sort of evidence?

With so much discussion about Turnbull's stylistic failings as a politician it's worth noting that the Tasmanian Premier, David Bartlett, has many of the same failings (specifically the same bull-at-a-gate approach to change management) and is also now struggling badly. Labor won the last Tasmanian state election in 2006 outright with a very large margin but is now trailing the Liberals in the polls here and almost certain to lose its majority (there is even a slim risk the swing could be large enough to put the Liberals in office outright). An election is due on the same day in March 2010 as SA's election.

Ian Murray
01-12-2009, 04:17 PM
With so much discussion about Turnbull's stylistic failings as a politician it's worth noting that the Tasmanian Premier, David Bartlett, has many of the same failings (specifically the same bull-at-a-gate approach to change management) and is also now struggling badly. Labor won the last Tasmanian state election in 2006 outright with a very large margin but is now trailing the Liberals in the polls here and almost certain to lose its majority (there is even a slim risk the swing could be large enough to put the Liberals in office outright). An election is due on the same day in March 2010 as SA's election.
Another Labor Premier Dies By The Gunn (http://newmatilda.com/2009/11/30/another-labor-premier-dies-gunn)
by Rick Pilkington
newmatilda.com
30.11.09


...According to Tasmanian psephologist Kevin Bonham, "Labor can forget about climbing the mountain ... their challenge now is to avoid falling off the cliff ... Labor now has no realistic chance of retaining its majority (with the usual proviso that extraordinary events sometimes change things). The question is whether it can contain the swing to the loss of a few seats, or whether things will just keep getting worse"....

That's our boy!

Kevin Bonham
01-12-2009, 04:47 PM
Quite amusing to be quoted approvingly by Rick Pilkington in an article posted on New Matilda since Pilkington is a sometimes hot-headed anti-pulp-mill poster on Tasmanian Times who has frequently taken vehement issue with my comprehensive demonstrations that his pet issue (the proposed Bell Bay pulp mill) has far less impact on voter behaviour than he would like it to. He is one of my more frequent flamewar opponents on that site although I have more regard for him than some of the others in that category and he is sometimes capable of displaying perspective.

His New Matilda article is alas more of the same. The reality is that Bartlett was trending upwards in the polls despite his confused stance on the mill issue until about six months ago (this is six months after the "line in the sand" expired) and then the wheels fell off. It hasn't been one specific thing but an epic series of them: misunderstood public service reforms, public service cutbacks, mishandled and confused education reforms, bungled introductions of water rates and land tax changes, police appointment corruption allegations, loss of one Legislative Councillor to a nepotism scandal, and perhaps above all a bungled effort in the resultant by-election (in which Labor didn't contest and didn't even quasi-endorse a credible independent and as a result a safe Labor seat became safe Liberal).

The pulp mill is probably in the mix to some degree (perhaps as the seed that first sowed doubts through which Labor's performance was later viewed) but generally it's one of the least of Bartlett's worries. Indeed, the damage is much worse in the south of the state, not the north where it would be expected to be if the crucial issue was the mill.

The article of mine Pilko links to is here (http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/article/labor-fails-to-stop-the-rot/) and the words "pulp", "mill" and "Gunns" do not occur in it.

arosar
03-12-2009, 09:36 PM
Well, I just can't bloody believe it. NSW now has a new premiere. It's a sheila and a bloody yank!

AR

Kevin Bonham
03-12-2009, 09:41 PM
Well, I just can't bloody believe it. NSW now has a new premiere. It's a sheila and a bloody yank!

You left out "Catholic". :lol:

Well Rees has certainly been unceremoniously dumped; I don't think I can remember a leadership spill against an incumbent leader that has been as lopsided as 45-21.

arosar
04-12-2009, 06:26 AM
NSW Labour is absolutely rotten. They are corrupt. And at the core of it all are a couple blokes with ethnic names! Obeid, whateverthef**k that name is, and Tripodi.

It's hopeless. Absobloodyhopeless.

AR

Mephistopheles
04-12-2009, 09:16 AM
NSW Labour is absolutely rotten. They are corrupt.
Yeah, but what is one to do in NSW? The infrastructure in the major population centre has been more or less ignored for the best part of a decade and things are (IMHO) now beyond the point of no return.

I still shake my head at how delusional our pollies must be if they think that (for example) Sydney's transport problems can somehow be solved by building a metro rail link to suburbs that are almost within walking distance of the city. Even stage 2 links to a suburb with an extant railway station so WTF??? These people are on serious drugs or they are just plain stupid.

arosar
04-12-2009, 09:47 AM
Yep...yep...that they're apparently going ahead with the CBD metro is a c**t of an idea.

Actually, you only have to look at the CBD rail map to quickly see what's missing. Look at that vast emptiness in the north west! So: build the fkn NW line already! But, of course, the problem is $$ and to get that they'd need to privatise a coupla state assets. And herein lies another problem. They can't bloody privatise because the goddamn unionist c**ts won't let 'em!

This state is a fkn joke! Put it this way right. There are 3rd world countries building metro lines across their cities and we, we the fkn first world people, can't manage to do it. I mean, I'm like WTF is going on?

AR

Mephistopheles
04-12-2009, 10:11 AM
Yep...yep...that they're apparently going ahead with the CBD metro is a c**t of an idea.

Actually, you only have to look at the CBD rail map to quickly see what's missing. Look at that vast emptiness in the north west! So: build the fkn NW line already!
There was once an easy-to-find image of what Bradfield envisaged for Sydney all those years ago and, indeed, it included a North Western Line and a Northern Beaches Line. The Eastern Suburbs Line was going to go back down the coast at least as far as Bronte and probably further.

Kevin Bonham
11-12-2009, 11:10 PM
Premier Mike Rann is under siege after allegations made on TV night by the former wife of the alleged attacker that she had a sexual relationship with him. Rann has totally denied the allegations, and will go into more details later today. However with the next state election only 4 months away it will be interesting to see how much impact these allegations will have.


At the present moment the impact looks like being about zero.

The rather comprehensive Advertiser Poll (PDF LINK) (http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/pdfimages/tiserpoll-q1to4-091209.pdf) finds no significant impact on Labor's 2PP vote (in fact it is up two points, though that isn't significant in itself.)

It finds voter assessments of Rann's performance more polarised but no less positive on balance.

It finds most voters saying the scandal would not affect their voting intention. More (18%) said it would make them less likely to vote for Rann but the party breakdown here is revealing. Among those intending to vote Labor, only 10% said they would be less likely to vote Labor while 6% said they would be more likely.

Given that only a small proportion of those who say an issue could affect their vote actually change their vote over it (something I have demonstrated by using similar polls to correctly predict election outcomes) that means that at the moment the net loss in existing support that he is facing is trivial.

Among supporters of other parties, sentiment about the scandal is more negative, with virtually no-one saying they are more likely to vote for Rann over it and over a quarter of Lib, Green and FF supporters saying they are less likely to do so. But these people would most likely not have voted Labor anyway and their claim to be less likely to vote Labor because of the matter may not even be well-considered and honest in some cases.

It looks like unless reliable evidence of the affair comes to light it will have very little impact. Even if it does, it's still possible it could blow over with less than disastrous impact, if everyone is simply sick of it by then.

I think it would have been more damaging had proof been made available to contradict Rann's claims as soon as he made them, but it wasn't.

Oepty
12-12-2009, 03:13 PM
At the present moment the impact looks like being about zero.

The rather comprehensive Advertiser Poll (PDF LINK) (http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/pdfimages/tiserpoll-q1to4-091209.pdf) finds no significant impact on Labor's 2PP vote (in fact it is up two points, though that isn't significant in itself.)

It finds voter assessments of Rann's performance more polarised but no less positive on balance.

It finds most voters saying the scandal would not affect their voting intention. More (18%) said it would make them less likely to vote for Rann but the party breakdown here is revealing. Among those intending to vote Labor, only 10% said they would be less likely to vote Labor while 6% said they would be more likely.

Given that only a small proportion of those who say an issue could affect their vote actually change their vote over it (something I have demonstrated by using similar polls to correctly predict election outcomes) that means that at the moment the net loss in existing support that he is facing is trivial.

Among supporters of other parties, sentiment about the scandal is more negative, with virtually no-one saying they are more likely to vote for Rann over it and over a quarter of Lib, Green and FF supporters saying they are less likely to do so. But these people would most likely not have voted Labor anyway and their claim to be less likely to vote Labor because of the matter may not even be well-considered and honest in some cases.

It looks like unless reliable evidence of the affair comes to light it will have very little impact. Even if it does, it's still possible it could blow over with less than disastrous impact, if everyone is simply sick of it by then.

I think it would have been more damaging had proof been made available to contradict Rann's claims as soon as he made them, but it wasn't.

This analysis seems to be very good. Mike Rann has now pulled a bit of a rabbit out the hat by seeming to secure agreement from relevant bodies to redevelop Adelaide Oval and make the home of AFL football in SA. This will not be finaslised unitl July 1st next year - after the election - and could easily fall apart after the election. The Adelaide Crows appear not to gain much by the move and have put a long list of demands forward that must be met. If the deal falls through in the lead up to the election it might hurt Labour a bit, but I doubt it will be major problem as the opposition isn't really in a position the capalise on it.
Scott

Oepty
15-12-2009, 09:09 PM
The latest polling gives approval for LAbors plan to redevelop Adelaide Oval at 44% while the Liberal's plan to build a new stadium at only 31%. Not good news for the opposition.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
17-12-2009, 03:01 PM
There is a current Newspoll showing Labor down four points (57 to 53 2PP) but Rann's popularity ratings unaffected. Four points is barely significant enough to say there has been any actual change, but of course the difference at an election between 57 and 53 would be enormous.

Oepty
22-12-2009, 08:15 PM
Premier Mike Rann has started legal proceedings against Channel 7 claiming he was defamed by their allegations he had an affair.
Scott

Garvinator
05-01-2010, 07:18 AM
Was reading the Sydney Daily Tele yesterday and for a few minutes I thought I was back in Brisbane reading the courier mail. The topics were certainly the same.

Bad governments
CEO's with snouts in trough
And a few other topics that were similar too.

Igor_Goldenberg
22-01-2010, 10:56 AM
Rumours are that Malcolm Turnbull might run for a NSW premier position.
Didn't listen or read very carefully, so not sure whether he wants to lead Labor or Liberal NSW.:D

Oepty
01-03-2010, 05:49 PM
I had written off the SA election as being an easy win to Labor but it appears I was wrong. I have been following much, but there is talk that we might have a hung parliment. That could be fun. I will have to try and follow things a bit more.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
01-03-2010, 07:21 PM
I had written off the SA election as being an easy win to Labor but it appears I was wrong. I have been following much, but there is talk that we might have a hung parliment. That could be fun.

It's fairly unlikely to actually occur in a single-seat system although it does happen sometimes. Often governments will spread exaggerated fear of it occurring to try to bump up their vote. With relatively few crossbenchers in a parliament, the chance of the swing against the government landing in exactly the point where a hung parliament results is fairly low.

Also a government with a narrow lead in opinion polls at this stage tends to win the election pretty comfortably. But since the new Liberal leader is polling very well it may be close.

In Tasmania's multi-member electorate system it is now very likely there will be a hung parliament after our election on the same day. That said, some of the polls that have been released here (including one this week showing the Greens on 22% raw vote and 27% excluding undecided) are not reliable. We have the misfortune to only have one polling company in Tas and the way they do things is not as good as Newspoll, Morgan, Nielsen etc.

Oepty
01-03-2010, 08:49 PM
It's fairly unlikely to actually occur in a single-seat system although it does happen sometimes. Often governments will spread exaggerated fear of it occurring to try to bump up their vote. With relatively few crossbenchers in a parliament, the chance of the swing against the government landing in exactly the point where a hung parliament results is fairly low.

Agree and probably even less likely since Rann has already had a minority government, but still it would be very interesting to see which way Bob Such goes if he has the final say. He is a former Liberal Minister, but was very much disaffected and left. He supported the Rann Labor Government and was deputy speaker when Rann had a minority government. Last time there was minority government Labor where put into office by the spport of ex-Liberal Peter Lewis who became a very strange speaker. Labor now have the only National in the parliment as a minister.
Talk of a hung parliment has not been coming from the government that I have heard but rather commentators who may not have been claiming it to be a high possibility.



Also a government with a narrow lead in opinion polls at this stage tends to win the election pretty comfortably. But since the new Liberal leader is polling very well it may be close.


It is looking to be a quite close, Rann is suddenly on the nose a bit, whereas he has managed to keep himself away from any contreversy quite well in the past. Pat Conlon and Kevin Foley have ussaully faced up to the bad news.

Scott

Kevin Bonham
15-03-2010, 08:18 PM
SA election sounds interesting but I have not been able to follow it from where I am.

Have done my best with following Tassie from the remote places I have been - have articles up on tasmaniantimes and New Matilda @ present for anyone interested. Polls here are bizarre with Greens apparently set for a very high vote indeed, though don't be surprised if it softens by election day.

Trent Parker
16-03-2010, 03:13 PM
Was reading the Sydney Daily Tele yesterday and for a few minutes I thought I was back in Brisbane reading the courier mail. The topics were certainly the same.

Bad governments
CEO's with snouts in trough
And a few other topics that were similar too.

What NSW needs is a good Liberal Government..... I mean good! :D

Oepty
16-03-2010, 07:09 PM
SA election sounds interesting but I have not been able to follow it from where I am.

Have done my best with following Tassie from the remote places I have been - have articles up on tasmaniantimes and New Matilda @ present for anyone interested. Polls here are bizarre with Greens apparently set for a very high vote indeed, though don't be surprised if it softens by election day.

Yes it is interesting although I think the Liberal charge maybe petering out a bit and I think Labor will just hang on, perhaps only with the 24 seats it requires for a majority, although maybe with 1 or 2 more.

The current situation sees, Labor with 28 seats, Liberal 14, Nationals 1 (She is a member of the Labor government cabinet) and 4 independents.
One of the independents, Rory McKewen in Mt Gambier is stepping down and this seat should return to the Liberals.
Another independent, Kris Hanna is going to have a very tough time holding his seat as swing to the Liberals will almost certainly lead to him being the 3rd highest polling candidate, giving Labor the seat on preferences. Hanna is also does not have the same boost the support from Nick Xenophon would have given him at the last state poll. I think Labour will win this seat.
National MP Karlene Maywald and Independent Geoff Brock will probably have tough fights to hold off the Liberals in their seats and it will be very very close in both seats. A poll in February showed Maywald retaining her seat by the tiniest of margins and if there has been a move to the Liberals, as some polls suggest, since then she could be in real trouble.
The last independent Bob Such will retain his seat quite easily.

The Liberals need to get too 24 seats to gain a majority and I think this is next too impossible. There is only 7 Labor seats they have a realistic chance chance of winning. Those 7 need a swing of 6.9% or less, whereas the swing needed to take the eigth seat is 10.2%, quite a jump. If Labor does not take Kris Hanna's seat they need to win 5 of these to put Labor out of Majority government, but if Hanna loses his seat 6 of the seven might be a pretty tough ask. Two polls during the campaign, one in the seat of Newland (where former federal MP Trish Draper is running for the Liberals), and one in the seat of Bright showed the Liberals not quite having a big enough swing to gain the seats, although a poll in Morialta showed the Liberals winning that seat.. These polls were Advertiser polls and are not considered as being as reliable as the Galaxy poll from the weekend which showed the Liberals in front of a state wide 2 party basis.

I have based some of my information on Antony Green's summaries of the seats available at http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2010/

Scott

arosar
16-03-2010, 07:46 PM
Shit! Our mate Kevo is now an 'electoral analyst'. Any chance we'll see you Kevo on the ABC during those big election nights?

I have to say, that's quite a leap from studying snails to studying polls!

AR

Kevin Bonham
16-03-2010, 08:09 PM
Shit! Our mate Kevo is now an 'electoral analyst'. Any chance we'll see you Kevo on the ABC during those big election nights?

Only if Antony Green one day decides SA is more interesting after all! :D


I have to say, that's quite a leap from studying snails to studying polls!


And chess is a big leap from either. I do lots of things and have qualifications in both science and political science.

As for snails, I found new species on consecutive days yesterday and the day before.

Igor_Goldenberg
19-03-2010, 08:52 AM
Greens polling in Tasmania (about 25%) reminds me of One Nation in Queensland election 1998.

Capablanca-Fan
19-03-2010, 03:34 PM
Greens polling in Tasmania (about 25%) reminds me of One Nation in Queensland election 1998.
So if the Greenstapo kill jobs in timber and other industries, should the rest of the country be forced to bail out the Tassies for their own stupidity in voting for them?

Kevin Bonham
19-03-2010, 04:19 PM
Greens polling in Tasmania (about 25%) reminds me of One Nation in Queensland election 1998.

One Nation was a flash in the pan; their vote crashed to single digits after that. The Greens have been part of Tasmanian politics in some form or other for almost three decades now, and have secured 16-18% of the vote in three previous elections. They are polling this well because Labor is a tired, incompetent and dodgy government running an especially bad campaign but there remains a deep resistance to voting Liberal.
Plus they have run a particularly good (and lucky) campaign themselves - might help that their new leader (who is the best they have had thus far by far) is a former advertising man.

Whether the 25 holds up tomorrow we will see (both pollsters have been getting this sort of result for the Greens) but I will be very surprised if they do not smash their previous record of 18.

By the way I'm expecting something like 10 Labor, 10 Liberal, 5 Green, give or take a seat.


So if the Greenstapo kill jobs in timber and other industries, should the rest of the country be forced to bail out the Tassies for their own stupidity in voting for them?

The "Greenstapo" can't do that unless a major party also endorses whatever "job-killing" policies they want to promote.

Oepty
20-03-2010, 12:05 PM
For the SA election I predict
24 seats Labor, 21 seats Liberal, plus independents Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Labour will gain Mitchell from Kris Hanna, and lose 5 seats to Liberal.
Liberal will gain Mt Gambier from retiring independent Rory Mckewen, Chaffey from Karlene Maywald plus 5 Labor seats.

First time I have tried to do this so I don't have high expectations of being right. It is going to fun to see what happens tonight, both in SA and Tasmania, although in both cases the fun might go on for a while if they end up as hung parliments.
Scott

Igor_Goldenberg
20-03-2010, 08:32 PM
For the SA election I predict
24 seats Labor, 21 seats Liberal, plus independents Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Labour will gain Mitchell from Kris Hanna, and lose 5 seats to Liberal.
Liberal will gain Mt Gambier from retiring independent Rory Mckewen, Chaffey from Karlene Maywald plus 5 Labor seats.

First time I have tried to do this so I don't have high expectations of being right. It is going to fun to see what happens tonight, both in SA and Tasmania, although in both cases the fun might go on for a while if they end up as hung parliments.
Scott
Looks like you predicted Labor seats correctly.

Kevin Bonham
20-03-2010, 09:35 PM
Tassie has a very thoroughly hung parliament. My pre-election call of 10-10-5 will be a bullseye if the two seats in doubt pan out as they are currently trending (or even if they both don't, curiously enough!)

The Libs got more votes than Labor so if Bartlett is true to his word and it is 10-10-5 then Bartlett will resign and let the Liberals govern. But if the Libs only win 9 then Bartlett will probably try to continue.

Capablanca-Fan
20-03-2010, 09:54 PM
Labor accused of ‘sneaky’ how-to-vote cards (http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/labor-accused-of-sneaky-how-to-vote-cards/story-fn2sdwup-1225843162573):

LABOR stands accused of using dirty tactics by handing out "sneaky" how-to-vote cards in a last minute bid to hold key marginal seats.

The Liberals and Family First are crying foul over the "fake" ALP-authorised cards that urge Family First voters to preference Labor, instead of Liberal as Family First intended.

...

Oepty
20-03-2010, 10:59 PM
Looks like you predicted Labor seats correctly.

Not really. Although 24 is a highly likely result it certainly contains some different seats than I thought. I expected Labor to lose both Light and Mawson (the seat where the dodgy but apparently legal how to vote cards Jono mentions were distributed) and I did not expect Labor to lose Adelaide, but no one did.

In a more general summary Labor is almost certainly going to have a majority government. Perhaps it will be 25 seats, but the Liberals a very good chance to win in Bright. The have a long shot of winning Hartley, and even if they do it is still possible, perhaps more likely, that Labor will win Mitchell from independent Kris Hanna. The only reason they have shot at Hartley is that it is regarded Labor picked up a bit in the last few days of the campaign. If the this indeed happened the very high number of prepoll/postal votes might favour the Liberals. If this happens in Mitchell though Kris Hanna might be relegated to 3rd and the seat goes to Labor. The other seat that might go to the Liberals is Mt Gambier were postal voted might make up the small margin the Liberals are behind independent Don Peglar.

The interesting point of the election is that SA has laws, brought in place after the 1989 election, that make the Electoral Commission adjust electrote boundaries to try and make certain that the party wins the most votes statewide on a two party preferred basis, wins the most seats. In this election it seams the 2 party preferred will be something like 52-48 in favour of the Liberals but Labor will win government. It appears the Electoral Commission has failed, but perhaps not as badly as it appears on the surface. There a 3 independents in what would otherwise be Liberal seats, so this means the Liberals vote is boosted, without it getting any return in seats. It is also true that Kris Hanna holds what would be otherwise be a Labor seat, but that is one seat against three.
Also I think the Liberals made a huge mistake in running former federal MP Trish Draper in Newland, and perhaps also in running former Hartley MP Joe Scalzi in Hartley again although that is not quite so clear cut.

In the end the Liberal's needed to win Light and Mawson the two most
marginal Labor seats and for whatever reason they couldn't do it.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
21-03-2010, 12:59 AM
Labor accused of ‘sneaky’ how-to-vote cards (http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/labor-accused-of-sneaky-how-to-vote-cards/story-fn2sdwup-1225843162573):

LABOR stands accused of using dirty tactics by handing out "sneaky" how-to-vote cards in a last minute bid to hold key marginal seats.

A common issue; fake or sneaky HTVs have been seen from various parties in many elections. Those who lose out can go to Disputed Returns but shouldn't expect satisfaction. The obligation is on a party to make sure its preferences are so well known that the voters will know a fake when they see one.


Not really. Although 24 is a highly likely result it certainly contains some different seats than I thought.

That usually happens. If you're only a seat or two out on the total I'd take that as a very good prediction outcome. In particular, it looks like Labor have hung on when some experts were predicting a hung parliament.


The interesting point of the election is that SA has laws, brought in place after the 1989 election, that make the Electoral Commission adjust electrote boundaries to try and make certain that the party wins the most votes statewide on a two party preferred basis, wins the most seats. In this election it seams the 2 party preferred will be something like 52-48 in favour of the Liberals but Labor will win government. It appears the Electoral Commission has failed, but perhaps not as badly as it appears on the surface.

It is virtually impossible to stop incumbent governments with substantial majorities from porkbarrelling and running marginal-seat strategies and thus winning without a 2PP majority. Of course if 2PP was the be-all-and-end-all, governments would adjust their strategies to that.

Goughfather
22-03-2010, 06:03 PM
A common issue; fake or sneaky HTVs have been seen from various parties in many elections. Those who lose out can go to Disputed Returns but shouldn't expect satisfaction. The obligation is on a party to make sure its preferences are so well known that the voters will know a fake when they see one.

It seems to me that this obligation vastly overestimates the capacity of most Family First voters.

Capablanca-Fan
22-03-2010, 09:01 PM
It seems to me that this obligation vastly overestimates the capacity of most Family First voters.
After the pathetic way Fielding handled the Dawk on the ABC, I think you might be right.

How to Vote cards are a weird peculiarity of Australia; we were never bothered with them in NZ. Not just because of the lack of preferential voting either—all electioneering is banned on voting day.

Garvinator
22-03-2010, 09:41 PM
How to Vote cards are a weird peculiarity of Australia; we were never bothered with them in NZ. Not just because of the lack of preferential voting either—all electioneering is banned on voting day.I think how to vote cards are a perfect example of the apathy of Australian voters as a whole. In my opinion, if a person needs a how to vote card at the polling booth to tell them which way to vote and how to vote, then they should not be voting at all.

Capablanca-Fan
22-03-2010, 10:10 PM
I think how to vote cards are a perfect example of the apathy of Australian voters as a whole. In my opinion, if a person needs a how to vote card at the polling booth to tell them which way to vote and how to vote, then they should not be voting at all.
I agree. Furthermore, this is another good argument for voluntary voting instead of what is commonly called compulsory voting.

Adamski
22-03-2010, 10:33 PM
How to Vote cards are a weird peculiarity of Australia; we were never bothered with them in NZ. Not just because of the lack of preferential voting either—all electioneering is banned on voting day.That is correct. I recall my last election in NZ where I was roped in to help the then Christian Heritage Party at the general election. We could have a presence with posters etc. but we could not talk to people about how they were going to vote. (Sadly, after I left the country I heard the CHP leader was jailed for offences committed many years beforehand. CHP is no longer any sort of force in NZ politics.)

Kevin Bonham
22-03-2010, 11:11 PM
In Tassie state and local elections there is a law against mentioning the name of an opposing candidate in various forms of electoral material without their consent. That pretty much snuffs out HTVs unless you want to just tell people to vote for your own party and then stop.

We have an interesting situation in the Tassie electorate of Denison where Andrew Wilkie, former Iraq WMD whistleblower, Howard opponent and Green, now rebranded as a No Pokies independent, has polled enough votes that it appears he will just outlast the second Green in the cutup and go head to head with a Liberal for the final seat. He will need a heavy flow of Green preferences but the cut-up (which will occur from Tuesday to Thursday next week) should be a cracker.

Oepty
23-03-2010, 12:47 AM
In Tassie state and local elections there is a law against mentioning the name of an opposing candidate in various forms of electoral material without their consent. That pretty much snuffs out HTVs unless you want to just tell people to vote for your own party and then stop.

We have an interesting situation in the Tassie electorate of Denison where Andrew Wilkie, former Iraq WMD whistleblower, Howard opponent and Green, now rebranded as a No Pokies independent, has polled enough votes that it appears he will just outlast the second Green in the cutup and go head to head with a Liberal for the final seat. He will need a heavy flow of Green preferences but the cut-up (which will occur from Tuesday to Thursday next week) should be a cracker.

No Pokies with the support of Nick Xenephon??? I would think he couldn't without it, but?
Scott

Desmond
23-03-2010, 09:00 AM
I think how to vote cards are a perfect example of the apathy of Australian voters as a whole. In my opinion, if a person needs a how to vote card at the polling booth to tell them which way to vote and how to vote, then they should not be voting at all.I don't see it as apathy at all. Having a preferred party and wanting them to win or to have their policies followed by the next closest party seems reasonable.

Apathy would be informal voting, donkey voting, or not bothering to show up at all.

Igor_Goldenberg
23-03-2010, 11:29 AM
In any case Labor's trick with forging Family First how-to-vote card is beneath contempt.

Basil
23-03-2010, 12:09 PM
Given the stupidity of some, the naivety of others, the depths of the deceit of others again, there exists sufficient reason to enact that all material clearly identify its origins and be tied to a party in a standardised format at the top of each piece.

Carry on!

Capablanca-Fan
23-03-2010, 12:59 PM
In any case Labor's trick with forging Family First how-to-vote card is beneath contempt.
Exactly. It was just rampant dishonesty, no matter how "legal" it might have been.

Kevin Bonham
23-03-2010, 05:11 PM
No Pokies with the support of Nick Xenephon??? I would think he couldn't without it, but?

No Pokies is not a registered party here so anyone who wants to run in a state election and use No Pokies style campaigning can do so. I don't think Nick X actually had anything much to do with the Wilkie campaign.

Oepty
23-03-2010, 05:47 PM
No Pokies is not a registered party here so anyone who wants to run in a state election and use No Pokies style campaigning can do so. I don't think Nick X actually had anything much to do with the Wilkie campaign.

Okay, thanks
Scott

Oepty
24-03-2010, 05:12 PM
Isobel Reymond has conceded defeat with the Liberals having no prospect of winning Hartley (or the even more unlikely Newland) on a swing due to declaration votes. However the Liberals are looking more likely to win Bright and Kris Hanna is still a slight favorite to very closely remain in second spot and win Mitchell. This leaves Labor with 24 seats. Mount Gambier is also still in doubt but indepentdent Don Pegler looks like just holding on despite the declaration votes favouring the LIberals.
Mike Rann has claimed victory and named his ministers, with three newcomers and former Attorney-General Michael Atkinson being the most high profile person to no longer be a minster after he chose to be a backbencher.

That leaves SA decided, still seems to be quite a way to go in Tasmania though.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2010, 05:40 PM
That leaves SA decided, still seems to be quite a way to go in Tasmania though.

Well no matter what happens we have a hung parliament here with either major party able to govern if willing and supported by the Greens. That much is clear; we're just waiting for the seat breakdown and to see whether the pre-election promises concerning response to that breakdown are adhered to.

Final outcomes should be known next Thursday, maybe Wednesday for Denison.

Oepty
24-03-2010, 06:22 PM
Well no matter what happens we have a hung parliament here with either major party able to govern if willing and supported by the Greens. That much is clear; we're just waiting for the seat breakdown and to see whether the pre-election promises concerning response to that breakdown are adhered to.

Final outcomes should be known next Thursday, maybe Wednesday for Denison.

Kevin, yes that should be fun. I believe Bartlett said he would not remain in government if there was equal seats and he did not win the most votes statewide, so if it ends up 10-10 - 5 or something like that the Liberals should have first shot at government, but there seems to have been some talk of Bartlett being replaced and the Labor making a go of it with another leader. Great fun indeed.
Scott

And the real twist in the tale of the SA election would be if there was another Kris Hanna in the Labor Party, but I am just being cheeky.

Oepty
25-03-2010, 05:57 PM
I am not sure that discussion of Rudd - Abbott nonevent belongs in this thread which is about STATE politics. [agreed and moved - mod]

In the SA elections and the seat of Bright, Labor's Chloe Fox has fought back from trailing by 6 votes to be in front by 2 votes after yesterdays counting. I did hear an update during the day that said Maria Kourtesis was leading by 57 votes. I have not seen an update on todays counting. I have no real opinion on who should win, but it would be nice to see Chloe Fox win seeing she decided against using the dodgey HTV cards in her electorate.
Scott

Oepty
26-03-2010, 05:40 PM
The SA Electoral Commission has just released more figures in the in doubt seats of the SA election. It appears Chloe Fox has won Bright for Labor after declaration votes have strongly favoured her over the last two days to give her what must be an uncatchable lead of 158 votes.
Independent Don Pegler is going to win Mt Gambier with Liberal Steve Perryman not closing the gap and a quick enough rate.
In Mitchell Independent Kris Hanna must be only just ahead of Liberal Peta McCance, if he is ahead of Peta McCance in second place. This must be very very tight. If the Liberals end up in second place Labor will win the seat.
Scott

Oepty
28-03-2010, 06:07 PM
The results are all in and Labor has won both Bright and Mitchell, results that looked unlikely midway through last week. This means the final seat tally's are
Labour 26 (-2)
Liberal 18 (+4)
Independents 3 (-1) Bob Such, Don Pegler and Geoff Brock
Nationals 0 (-1)

Scott

Kevin Bonham
28-03-2010, 09:10 PM
That is really a pretty good result for Labor all things considered. The real test now will be whether they can keep in shape for the next one or whether incumbency will do them in at that point. One of my colleagues (Peter Brent) has predicted that in four years Labor in SA will be as bad as Labor in NSW is now!

Oepty
28-03-2010, 10:40 PM
That is really a pretty good result for Labor all things considered. The real test now will be whether they can keep in shape for the next one or whether incumbency will do them in at that point. One of my colleagues (Peter Brent) has predicted that in four years Labor in SA will be as bad as Labor in NSW is now!

Kevin, a distinct possiblilty, but I think there is a very good chance that the Liberals tear themselves apart again sometime in the next 4 years. Whether they can pull it together again just in time like they did this time might be interesting. Maybe it won't matter if Labor makes a total mess of things.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
31-03-2010, 12:29 AM
Dramatic stuff here with Andrew Wilkie losing to Liberal Elise Archer for the last seat in Denison by a few hundred votes. Wilkie was catching Archer on Green preferences but 35% of the Green preferences exhausted (this is what happens when silly people vote for just some of the candidates then stop and their vote runs out of candidates to flow to). Of the rest Wilkie needed to beat Archer 71% to 29% or better but got 67:33 and lost.

Earlier in the count Archer had survived elimination by only 61 votes. Had she been eliminated at that point another Liberal would have gone to the wire against Wilkie instead, and may not have beaten him.

Archer has been quite successful in local council politics but blotted her copybook during the campaign when she was involved in a public altercation with a former Liberal candidate who had withdrawn from the election.

Archer's election ends any hope of Labor winning more seats than the Liberals here and if Premier Bartlett is true to his word he should now resign as Labor leader.

The last seat in Braddon is still unclear but the Greens are in a good position to take that one.

Oepty
31-03-2010, 07:51 PM
In SA the internal Liberal divisons were exsposed yesterday during the election of the deputy leader. Former leader Martin Hamilton-Smith was elected as deputy over another former leader Iain Evans. Leader Isobel Redmond was angred by the decision as she want Evans as her deputy but was rolled by the party room. It has been suggested that Vicky Chapman and federal MP Christopher Pyne were behind the anti-Evans move.
Hamilton-Smith was Redmond's predecessor as Liberal leader and was doing a reasonable job until he took some fake documents at face value and made some serious accusations against Labor Party people. If Redmond and Hamilton-Smith work together well they could be a very strong leadership team for the Liberals and cause the Labor government quite a lot of problems. If they don't the Liberals could be in total disarray again quite quickly.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
31-03-2010, 10:44 PM
My pre-election call of 10-10-5 will be a bullseye if the two seats in doubt pan out as they are currently trending (or even if they both don't, curiously enough!)

10-10-5 it is, not entirely sure how I pulled that one off given the awfulness of the available polling data and spending most of the leadup out of the loop in Stanley and Gowrie Park. Then again, with only 25 seats there are usually only a handful of really plausible breakdowns to choose between.

Oepty
01-04-2010, 10:40 AM
10-10-5 it is, not entirely sure how I pulled that one off given the awfulness of the available polling data and spending most of the leadup out of the loop in Stanley and Gowrie Park. Then again, with only 25 seats there are usually only a handful of really plausible breakdowns to choose between.

Kevin, I have been reading your comments on Poll Bludger and thank you for those comments. I did not realise how much of an expert you are in Tasmanian politics, but you have showed yourself to be excellent at commenting on the election process, well done. And well done on the prediction, much better than my SA one turned out.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
01-04-2010, 01:45 PM
Kevin, I have been reading your comments on Poll Bludger and thank you for those comments. I did not realise how much of an expert you are in Tasmanian politics, but you have showed yourself to be excellent at commenting on the election process, well done. And well done on the prediction, much better than my SA one turned out.

I think you did a lot better than most even though a couple of seats went the other way. There were plenty of experts predicting a hung parliament.

Labor had a caucus meeting today and Bartlett's leadership was confirmed. Bartlett gave a press conference announcing that he will advise the Governor to ask Will Hodgman to form government.

There is a lot of hot air about the constitutional path that this will take and some are suggesting Bartlett's advice may be unconstitutional and that the Governor may recommission Bartlett anyway (at least until the House casts a vote of no confidence and gets rid of him).

I believe the Governor will ask Will Hodgman to advise whether he can form a stable government.

Oepty
01-04-2010, 02:10 PM
I think you did a lot better than most even though a couple of seats went the other way. There were plenty of experts predicting a hung parliament.

Labor had a caucus meeting today and Bartlett's leadership was confirmed. Bartlett gave a press conference announcing that he will advise the Governor to ask Will Hodgman to form government.

There is a lot of hot air about the constitutional path that this will take and some are suggesting Bartlett's advice may be unconstitutional and that the Governor may recommission Bartlett anyway (at least until the House casts a vote of no confidence and gets rid of him).

I believe the Governor will ask Will Hodgman to advise whether he can form a stable government.

If the Governor decides that Bartlett cannot resign government and tells him to take to a vote is there any real likelihood the Greens will support a minority Labor government even if Bartlett doesn't want it?
Scott

Kevin Bonham
01-04-2010, 02:14 PM
If the Governor decides that Bartlett cannot resign government and tells him to take to a vote is there any real likelihood the Greens will support a minority Labor government even if Bartlett doesn't want it?


Perhaps temporarily. Of course as soon as Bartlett tries to enter the house as Premier, Will Hodgman will immediately move no-confidence and that will place great pressure on the Greens to choose one way or the other.

(Indeed I think the first order of business would be for Bartlett to try a confidence motion in his government, but he could always refuse to do so.)

I cannot see the Governor forcing Bartlett to govern if he does not want to.

Oepty
01-04-2010, 02:37 PM
Perhaps temporarily. Of course as soon as Bartlett tries to enter the house as Premier, Will Hodgman will immediately move no-confidence and that will place great pressure on the Greens to choose one way or the other.

(Indeed I think the first order of business would be for Bartlett to try a confidence motion in his government, but he could always refuse to do so.)

I cannot see the Governor forcing Bartlett to govern if he does not want to.

If the Greens support Labor on the floor of parliment could Labor really throw away government? Surely Labor would have to vote for themselves in a no confidence motion. A vote on the floor of 19 (Labor + Liberal) - 5 (Greens), (assuming a Labor speaker), in favour of a no confidence motion would look pretty bad for Labor.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
01-04-2010, 02:40 PM
If the Greens support Labor on the floor of parliment could Labor really throw away government? Surely Labor would have to vote for themselves in a no confidence motion.

Indeed; if the Governor directed Labor to govern I don't think they would vote themselves out. But I cannot see the Governor issuing such a directive unless it is clear that the Libs cannot form a government that will last. The Governor should probably even consider a Green government (which would probably last about five minutes) before that.

We won't really know what's going on until after Easter - Governor won't do anything before the declaration of the polls on April 7.

Oepty
06-04-2010, 10:31 AM
The SA Liberals have another deputy leader after Martin Hamilton-Smith resigned from the position. Mitch Williams is the new leader after he was unopposed and there was not a vote required.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
06-04-2010, 11:40 PM
The SA Liberals have another deputy leader after Martin Hamilton-Smith resigned from the position. Mitch Williams is the new leader after he was unopposed and there was not a vote required.

Pretty hilarious stuff - the spill being forced by Redmond because she didn't like the party's decision on who to elect as her deputy, so Hamilton-Smith gives up in disgust and refuses to recontest. What a sham.

It's always worth bearing in mind though what a total joke the WA Liberal Opposition were from 2005-2008, going through three leaders before picking a fourth who had failed once before and had said he would retire from politics. And they won.

We are still not sure what will happen here in Tassie tomorrow when David Bartlett goes to see the Governor following the declaration of the poll.

Desmond
07-04-2010, 09:09 AM
Is it true that a dead guy was elected?

Garvinator
07-04-2010, 11:41 AM
Is it true that a dead guy was elected?Are you talking here or overseas? It has happened in America, of course.

Republican senator loses to dead rival in Missouri
Jean Carnahan
November 8, 2000
Web posted at: 2:49 a.m. EST (0749 GMT)


(CNN) -- The late Gov. Mel Carnahan collected enough votes to beat out incumbent Republican Sen. John Ashcroft for the U.S. Senate seat from Missouri.

The incumbent Ashcroft was left running against a dead man after his opponent, the popular sitting governor, died in a plane crash on October 16. By that time, it was too late to remove Carnahan's name from the ballot.

No one had ever posthumously won election to the Senate, though voters on at least three occasions chose deceased candidates for the House.

Lt. Gov. Roger Wilson moved up to succeed Carnahan. Wilson said he would appoint Carnahan's widow, Jean, to the Senate seat should the deceased husband get more votes than Ashcroft.

Jean Carnahan said Tuesday night: "Abraham Lincoln never saw his nation made whole again. Susan B. Anthony never cast a vote. Martin Luther King Jr. never finished his mountaintop journey. My husband's journey has stopped short too, and for reasons we do not know or understand, the mantle has now fallen upon us. We remain heirs of a legacy."

"On this night I pledge to you -- rather let us pledge to each other -- we will never let the flame go out," she told supporters by speaker phone.

Ashcroft held the lead in polls until Carnahan's death threw the race into turmoil.

On election day, no one could predict how the sympathy factor would play at the polls. Jean Carnahan used ads to make emotional appeals for "the values and beliefs that Mel Carnahan wanted to take to the United States Senate."

Ashcroft was supported by two thirds of the voters who in exit polls said the federal budget surplus should be used to cut taxes. A majority of the voters who supported Carnahan said the surplus should go toward the national debt.

Republicans have vowed to fight Jean Carnahan's appointment on the grounds that a candidate must be an "inhabitant" of the state, a requirement a dead person can't fullfill. Her appointment must be approved by the Senate.

Both candidates were twice elected governor and had nine statewide victories among them.

The freshman Senator Ashcroft has a very conservative voting record. He favored term limits, was one of the first in the Senate to have his own web page, and was one of the first to say charges against Clinton might warrant impeachment.

Desmond
07-04-2010, 11:47 AM
Are you talking here or overseas? It has happened in America, of course.

Republican senator loses to dead rival in Missouri
Jean Carnahan
November 8, 2000
Web posted at: 2:49 a.m. EST (0749 GMT)
In the SA election. The rumour went that the candidate died during the run up to the election, and it was too late to change to ballot papers. Dunno, I suspect it's probably not true.

Kevin Bonham
07-04-2010, 12:29 PM
In the SA election. The rumour went that the candidate died during the run up to the election, and it was too late to change to ballot papers. Dunno, I suspect it's probably not true.

Dr Paul Collier, lead candidate for the Dignity 4 Disabled party, died after the ballot papers were printed but before polling day. Under SA law the death of one Upper House candidate does not invalidate the election (the death of two does) and the election went ahead with Collier's name still on the paper.

However it is not true that Collier was elected. When a candidate dies in such circumstances that candidate is excluded from the preference distribution and their votes are transferred to other candidates - in this case mostly Collier's running mate, Kelly Vincent.

The SA Legislative Council election process is very complex involving a lot of manual data entry and it remains to be seen whether Vincent will be elected or not.

Kevin Bonham
08-04-2010, 03:00 PM
Kelly Vincent has now been elected in SA. The final Upper House results there were 4 Labor, 4 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 FFP, 1 D4D.

Totals in the SA Upper House are now apparently ALP 8, Lib 7, Grn 2, FFP 2, No Pokies 2, D4D 1.

Oepty
08-04-2010, 06:11 PM
David Bartlett has been asked by the governor to form a minority government. Seeing the Greens have decided to support Labor as the best option for a stable government it looks like Tasmania is going to have the Premier who didn't want to govern. I guess the big question is did David Bartlett go back on his commitment to allow the Liberals to govern?
Scott

Kevin Bonham
08-04-2010, 07:43 PM
David Bartlett has been asked by the governor to form a minority government. Seeing the Greens have decided to support Labor as the best option for a stable government it looks like Tasmania is going to have the Premier who didn't want to govern. I guess the big question is did David Bartlett go back on his commitment to allow the Liberals to govern?

His primary commitment was to give the Liberals the first opportunity to form government, not to hand over completely, although he did make some noises in that direction too.

I think he always did want to govern provided he didn't have to formally deal with the Greens. What's happened is that he's managed to find a clever way around his pre-election commitments to give up government by shifting blame to the Governor.

Capablanca-Fan
09-04-2010, 12:53 AM
Conservative Andrew Bolt thinks it was a fair decision (http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/attention_bryce_heres_how_your_job_is_best_done/), given that voters gave leftards more seats.

Kevin Bonham
09-04-2010, 11:29 AM
Conservative Andrew Bolt thinks it was a fair decision (http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/attention_bryce_heres_how_your_job_is_best_done/), given that voters gave leftards more seats.

Labor here aren't really lefties though. The two major parties in Tasmania are much closer to each other than either is to the Greens, and Labor is much more antagonistic towards the Greens here than elsewhere in Australia. It's actually not that clear-cut at the moment which of Labor or the Liberals is the more "right-wing" party here and the Libs went to the election with a significantly greener focus than Labor. For instance the Tasmanian Conservation (or as I call them, Confrontation) Trust scored the Greens' environmental policies 8/10, the Liberals' 3.75 and Labor's only 2. A new Liberal elected with a very large personal vote was Matthew Groom. This guy is a son of a former premier but is also a renewable energy executive who works on wind farms and other climate change issues. I did some sampling of divisions on the floor of the house during the last term of government and found that the most common division was actually Liberals and Greens voting together against the Labor then-majority government.

In his comments about the impartiality of the Governor being important in this scenario he is dead right. But the whole thing raises another question which is whether the Governor should have a role in choosing the Premier at all, or whether it should just be left to the floor of the Parliament. While he would have stayed in office anyway, in my view Bartlett has been able to play games with the office of the Governor to reduce the damage that some pre-election commitments caused him, and to humiliate Hodgman who is really not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

Igor_Goldenberg
09-04-2010, 11:34 AM
...and Labor is much more antagonistic towards the Greens here than elsewhere in Australia. ...
Is it a smokescreen or a real ideological differences?

Kevin Bonham
09-04-2010, 11:47 AM
Is it a smokescreen or a real ideological differences?

It is more a difference of emphasis because forestry issues are far more important in Tasmanian politics than in the rest of the country. Both major parties strongly support the forestry industry while the Greens do not. A similar position occurs on many other environmental issues.

There is also a lot of history in Labor vs Green conflicts. Labor ruled in minority from 1989-1992 with Greens support and they had a formal Accord which broke down (basically because the Greens asked for too much and Labor gave it to them, then when Labor got into office it discovered the previous Liberal government had almost bankrupted the state and it couldn't pay for all of what it had agreed to.) Each side blames the other for what happened and Labor does not want to repeat the experience.

Kevin Bonham
20-04-2010, 06:44 PM
After protracted and messy negotiations two Greens will join the nine-member Labor cabinet in Tasmania. Greens leader Nick McKim will be given a ministry (not as yet clear which) and Cassy O'Connor will become Cabinet Secretary (a Cabinet position but not a ministerial one). One Green, Kim Booth, voted against the deal in the Greens party room saying that the Labor government contained too many figures who were too corrupt to work with. There was also a lot of tension on the Labor side as well with one career backbencher, Brenton Best, publicly saying only Labor should get ministries (not that he should worry since he lacks the talent or reliability to get one).

Oepty
20-04-2010, 07:19 PM
After protracted and messy negotiations two Greens will join the nine-member Labor cabinet in Tasmania. Greens leader Nick McKim will be given a ministry (not as yet clear which) and Cassy O'Connor will become Cabinet Secretary (a Cabinet position but not a ministerial one). One Green, Kim Booth, voted against the deal in the Greens party room saying that the Labor government contained too many figures who were too corrupt to work with. There was also a lot of tension on the Labor side as well with one career backbencher, Brenton Best, publicly saying only Labor should get ministries (not that he should worry since he lacks the talent or reliability to get one).

Kevin, has Nick McKim got a good deal for the Greens? Seems to be okay from a distance.
Scott