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Spiny Norman
24-05-2008, 02:44 PM
I predict a small gain, maybe 10-15 points.

Kevin Bonham
24-05-2008, 02:57 PM
Only tournament being rated this period is Tas Champs where I conceded five draws, four of them to lower rated players, one of those much lower.

Barry's site (the ratings there appear a period out of date) gives -24, I predict -28.

With a recent loss to another lower-rated player I could be slumming it in the very low 1900s later this year and deservedly so.

Garvinator
24-05-2008, 03:41 PM
Assuming all tournaments I played in this rating period make it to Bill, I going to say a small rise to no change.

Trent Parker
24-05-2008, 04:04 PM
hmmm downward of about 5 points after 26 games into Barry's calculator (I looked up their recent ratings however...)

Basil
24-05-2008, 04:09 PM
Is this thread meant to be some kind of sick joke?

Bill Gletsos
24-05-2008, 05:03 PM
Assuming all tournaments I played in this rating period make it to Bill, I going to say a small rise to no change.I have received the BCC Summer Swiss and Autumn Swiss but have not yet received the Brisbane Tal Memorial.

Garvinator
24-05-2008, 05:42 PM
I have received the BCC Summer Swiss and Autumn Swiss but have not yet received the Brisbane Tal Memorial.
BCC Tal Memorial just completed Thursday night.

There may also be The Gap Chess Club Flood Cup, which finished last night. Have sent email to the arbiter of that tournament to send files asap to Pat Byrom so it can be rated in this period.

Bill Gletsos
24-05-2008, 05:49 PM
BCC Tal Memorial just completed Thursday night.I know. I received the other BCC events I mentioned this morning

CameronD
24-05-2008, 06:36 PM
I'd say down 22 points. Mainly due to a weekender where after a few rounds, I got bored and prefered to be outside having fun. I should've withdrawn and done something else.

Kevin Bonham
24-05-2008, 08:09 PM
I'd say down 22 points. Mainly due to a weekender where after a few rounds, I got bored and prefered to be outside having fun. I should've withdrawn and done something else.

I assume you were joking but just in case anyone would try this, I'll point out that this is not a legitimate reason for withdrawing and would be viewed very harshly by many organisers. :D

If you find you're apt to get bored in weekenders, reconsider entering them.

CameronD
24-05-2008, 09:15 PM
I assume you were joking but just in case anyone would try this, I'll point out that this is not a legitimate reason for withdrawing and would be viewed very harshly by many organisers. :D

If you find you're apt to get bored in weekenders, reconsider entering them.


I have, wont be playing in them anymore

Ofcourse, if someone wanted to withdraw, the organizer cant do anything, the player can just claim illness.

I dont understand why withdrawls are looked down on harshly, as long as the arbiter is informed.

Southpaw Jim
24-05-2008, 09:56 PM
I predict a loss of as many as 100 points, following this period's disastrous performance :( :wall:

Phil Bourke
24-05-2008, 11:24 PM
Up, down, maybe the same. Chess is the game, not ratings!

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2008, 12:15 AM
I predict a loss of as many as 100 points, following this period's disastrous performance :( :wall:I do not believe you will have any games rated this period.

Basil
25-05-2008, 12:42 AM
I do not believe you will have any games rated this period.
Something for Jim to look forward to in the next period, then! ;)

Southpaw Jim
25-05-2008, 07:38 AM
Correct you are Bill, I was getting my Junes and Julys mixed up :eek: (our club champs finish at the end of June)

Gunner, I wait with 'bated breath :doh:

Spiny Norman
26-05-2008, 07:34 AM
Something for Jim to look forward to in the next period, then! ;)
Justice delayed is justice denied! :lol:

Tony Dowden
26-05-2008, 10:26 AM
I reckon I'll go up about 10 points :)

OK - considering a 20 point drop for losing to (under-rated) VIC junior Eugene Schon at the Doeberl Cup.

Rincewind
26-05-2008, 11:36 AM
I haven't had a lot of time for chess or rating calculators lately. But I guess I will be going down ~15 points. I lost one game to someone around 60 points lower than me. I won six others but they were all against players 100s of points lower rated.

Rincewind
26-05-2008, 11:39 AM
OK - considering a 20 point drop for losing to (under-rated) VIC junior Eugene Schon at the Doeberl Cup.

Inconsistent yes (so he can play much stronger than his rating) but I don't think you could call a kid who is regularly on the busiest players list patently underrated.

ER
26-05-2008, 04:55 PM
steady around the 1420 mark. Of course not reflecting the real abilities of this fine young man!!! :owned:
Cheers and good luck!!!

Bill Gletsos
26-05-2008, 07:03 PM
steady around the 1420 mark.Not so based on submitted results.
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Bill Gletsos
26-05-2008, 07:04 PM
I reckon I'll go up about 10 points :) :clap:

Bill Gletsos
26-05-2008, 07:05 PM
I haven't had a lot of time for chess or rating calculators lately. But I guess I will be going down ~15 points.Or there abouts.

Bill Gletsos
26-05-2008, 07:06 PM
I predict a small gain, maybe 10-15 points.:clap:

Bill Gletsos
26-05-2008, 07:07 PM
Only tournament being rated this period is Tas Champs where I conceded five draws, four of them to lower rated players, one of those much lower.

Barry's site (the ratings there appear a period out of date) gives -24, I predict -28.Or there abouts.

Bill Gletsos
26-05-2008, 07:08 PM
hmmm downward of about 5 points after 26 games into Barry's calculator (I looked up their recent ratings however...)Wrong direction.

ER
26-05-2008, 07:13 PM
Not so based on submitted results.
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oh nooooooo!!! :(

MichaelBaron
26-05-2008, 09:15 PM
Up, down, maybe the same. Chess is the game, not ratings!
:clap:

eclectic
26-05-2008, 09:34 PM
all that will happen to my rating is that the :!: will disappear unless of course across the board adjustments are forthcoming

Vlad
26-05-2008, 11:53 PM
It is measly 10-15 points for me.

Is Anton crossing the important 1400 mile stone yet?:) I guess either way is good. If he does not, he will collect more prize money.:)

In the last tournament Anton played in North Sydney, 2 people dropped out from the tournament just before they were due to play him. ;)

Bill Gletsos
27-05-2008, 12:03 AM
It is measly 10-15 points for me.Not quite.


Is Anton crossing the important 1400 mile stone yet?:)Not yet, but he is now also on the top U12 list.

Vlad
27-05-2008, 12:53 AM
Not quite.


I have reentered all the numbers again.:) Barry's calculator is giving 15 points after 27 games.

I may have to write a program implementing Glicko 2. Barry's calculator is not doing a good job.:)

Basil
27-05-2008, 01:43 AM
While waiting for Bill's reply, my estimate is a drop from 1562 to 1509, 40 of those points residing with John Scott and a certain Mr Gray :eek:

Ian Rout
27-05-2008, 10:54 AM
I played my last rated game of the quarter last night so I can enter this one now. My last few forecasts have been quite accurate but this time is harder as I played a higher number of games (31) against players with a wide range of ratings and RDs. My estimate is 1865 (up from 1846), but a bit wrong either side wouldn't be a surprise.

Watto
27-05-2008, 11:02 AM
Up 20 or so points I think. I'd prefer 200 but mine's a long, slow path to glory. ;)

Rincewind
27-05-2008, 01:38 PM
I may have to write a program implementing Glicko 2. Barry's calculator is not doing a good job.:)

It is doing a good job, just you are wanting it to do a different one. ;)

The problem with Glicko 2 is you need the volatility which is not published if it were I would probably write an online Glicko-2 calculator myself.

BTW I do have an stand alone Glicko-2 calculator implemented as an Excel Spreadsheet. If anyone is interested, send me an email or PM with your email address and I'll send it to you.

Bill Gletsos
27-05-2008, 02:21 PM
I have reentered all the numbers again.:) Barry's calculator is giving 15 points after 27 games.

I may have to write a program implementing Glicko 2. Barry's calculator is not doing a good job.:)That wont help.
The issue is two-fold.

Firstly for players rated over 2200 the rating change is reduced.


The opportunity/possibility for a player who loses rating points to regain those points is less for players at the top end as opposed to players at other positions in the rating list.

We noted that if a player rated say 1700 lost to a player rated 1400 (a 15% chance) he could get all his points back in one game by beating a player rated 2000 (also a 15% chance). However if you are rated 2400 and lose to a 2100 then to get the points back you would need to beat a 2700. There are no 2700 rated players in Australia. Testing showed that there was a slight disadvantage to the top players compared to the vast majority of other players. To try and alleviate this we implemented a sliding scale where the points lost or gained were scaled depending on the players rating at the start of the rating period. If your rating was equal to or less than 2200 then no scaling was applied. If your rating was 2300 and greater then a scale of 0.75 was applied. For ratings between 2200 and 2300 this was a straight line from 1.0 to 0.75.This was implemented back in July 2003.

Secondly the rating calculation does not use your oppoenents published rating but an intermediate rating which reflects how they played during the rating period. This was implemented back in September 2004 and explained in ACF Bulletin #276.

Bill Gletsos
27-05-2008, 09:02 PM
Up 20 or so points I think.There abouts.

Bill Gletsos
27-05-2008, 09:04 PM
I played my last rated game of the quarter last night so I can enter this one now. My last few forecasts have been quite accurate but this time is harder as I played a higher number of games (31) against players with a wide range of ratings and RDs. My estimate is 1865 (up from 1846), but a bit wrong either side wouldn't be a surprise.Not that high.

Bill Gletsos
27-05-2008, 09:06 PM
While waiting for Bill's reply, my estimate is a drop from 1562 to 1509, 40 of those points residing with John Scott and a certain Mr Gray :eek:So far I only have you down for 12 games and your loss of points isnt close to being as low as 1509.

Ian Rout
27-05-2008, 09:44 PM
Not that high.But no doubt high enough to keep me over 1850 for the NSW Open.

If I'd known I was that close I could have thrown a couple of games.

Basil
27-05-2008, 09:52 PM
But no doubt high enough to keep me over 1850 for the NSW Open.

If I'd known I was that close I could have thrown a couple of games.
:lol:


So far I only have you down for 12 games and your loss of points isnt close to being as low as 1509.
You big huggable bear, you :smooch:

Well yes, there are only those 12 from the Summer and Autumn Swisses and four from the Tal.

Of the Tal, two were against unrated players (1800 notional (loss)) and patzer (win) plus an 'orrible draw against Steve Kossaris 1230 and loss against Al Zaheer (1676).

Bill Gletsos
27-05-2008, 10:04 PM
Well yes, there are only those 12 from the Summer and Autumn Swisses and four from the Tal.

Of the Tal, two were against unrated players (1800 notional (loss)) and patzer (win) plus an 'orrible draw against Steve Kossaris 1230 and loss against Al Zaheer (1676).I dont have the BCC Tal event yet. The Tal event listed from QLD isnt the BCC one.

Bill Gletsos
27-05-2008, 10:04 PM
But no doubt high enough to keep me over 1850 for the NSW Open.No doubt.

Phil Bourke
27-05-2008, 10:12 PM
Up 20 or so points I think. I'd prefer 200 but mine's a long, slow path to glory. ;)
Keep trundling away like the rest of us :)

Vlad
27-05-2008, 11:21 PM
BTW I do have an stand alone Glicko-2 calculator implemented as an Excel Spreadsheet. If anyone is interested, send me an email or PM with your email address and I'll send it to you.

Thanks Barry! It is much more convinient than the calculator. The e-mail was quite clear as well. :clap: :clap: :clap:

Vlad
27-05-2008, 11:33 PM
Secondly the rating calculation does not use your oppoenents published rating but an intermediate rating which reflects how they played during the rating period. This was implemented back in September 2004 and explained in ACF Bulletin #276.

It is all getting too complicated to implement.:) I guess it will not affect the majourity, only if somebody plays many games against juniors he will be affected.

Anyway, I have got Glicko 2 from Barry and the program gives new rating for Anton around 1375-1380. Is it a better estimate?:) Thanks!

Bill Gletsos
27-05-2008, 11:43 PM
It is all getting too complicated to implement.:) I guess it will not affect the majourity, only if somebody plays many games against juniors he will be affected.

Anyway, I have got Glicko 2 from Barry and the program gives new rating for Anton around 1375-1380. Is it a better estimate?:) Thanks!Yes although fractionally high.

Watto
28-05-2008, 09:59 AM
Keep trundling away like the rest of us :)
Thanks Phil. I will! :)

Desmond
28-05-2008, 04:54 PM
Is Brodie McClymont heading far North?

Rincewind
28-05-2008, 05:38 PM
Is Brodie McClymont heading far North?

ƃuıʞlɐʇ ǝʍ ǝɹɐ ɥʇɹou ɹɐɟ ʍoɥ

Bill Gletsos
28-05-2008, 07:00 PM
Is Brodie McClymont heading far North?Yes.