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CameronD
30-01-2008, 05:21 PM
Thread is for people to predict their March 08 rating.

Aaron Guthrie
30-01-2008, 05:23 PM
I predict a change in my rating of zero or more, and I predict a change of zero or less.

Basil
30-01-2008, 06:17 PM
I predict a change in my rating of zero or more, and I predict a change of zero or less.
Aren't you missing some ampersands or tildes or something? There are two 'ands', and they are mutually exclusive :eek: ;)

Aaron Guthrie
30-01-2008, 06:26 PM
Aren't you missing some ampersands or tildes or something? There are two 'ands', and they are mutually exclusive :eek: ;)Could you bold both "and"s, I really can't see two!

ER
30-01-2008, 06:28 PM
No bloody way I 'll lose more rating points!!!
Cheers and good luck!

Desmond
30-01-2008, 07:41 PM
I predict my rapid rating will pass my normal one.

Basil
30-01-2008, 07:41 PM
Could you bold both "and"s, I really can't see two!
Can't. Coz you didn't. I did the post on the fly. But aren't you stating two positives (predictions) that will both exist, yet are mutually exclusive?

CameronD
30-01-2008, 07:45 PM
I predict a change in my rating of zero or more, and I predict a change of zero or less.

Candicate for dribble of the month award

Desmond
30-01-2008, 07:48 PM
Candicate for dribble of the month award
Candidate for word of the day. :P

Aaron Guthrie
30-01-2008, 08:30 PM
Can't. Coz you didn't. I did the post on the fly. But aren't you stating two positives (predictions) that will both exist, yet are mutually exclusive?My rating could change by zero points.

Basil
30-01-2008, 09:07 PM
My rating could change by zero points.
Yup. I knew that. Hoped you wouldn't go that bolt-hole. Then again perhaps it was no bolt-hole and that's what's you meant. In fact knowing you, I reckon it was.

You win that one :P (on the technicality front as well - in that my original suggestion is busted)

Aaron Guthrie
30-01-2008, 09:21 PM
Yup. I knew that. Hoped you wouldn't go that bolt-hole. Then again perhaps it was no bolt-hole and that's what's you meant. In fact knowing you, I reckon it was.Correct. I expect to play no games this period. Of course my rating could change anyway if there is a correction or something.

Basil
30-01-2008, 09:28 PM
Of course my rating could change anyway if there is a correction or something.
Aha! I have a bolt-hole.

Adamski
30-01-2008, 10:39 PM
Not difficult this one - I predict that my standard rating will go down (even if there is some correction applied across the board).

Bereaved
31-01-2008, 12:05 AM
Barry's calculator says +8, who knows really....

The link to Barry's Calculator is:

http://www.bjcox.com/modules.php?name=Glicko_Calc

for those unaware. It in no way promises to tell you what your change will actually be, but is good as a rough guide

Take care and God Bless, Macavity

Trent Parker
31-01-2008, 12:29 AM
Too early to call

With Toukley and Newcastle and all......

Phil Bourke
31-01-2008, 12:47 AM
Too early to call

With Toukley and Newcastle and all......
A victory over TCN at Toukley could see mine soar, a loss leaves me in the turkey yard :)

Rincewind
31-01-2008, 09:08 AM
I predict a change in my rating of zero or more, and I predict a change of zero or less.

Ditto.

Ian Rout
31-01-2008, 09:26 AM
Assuming I have no more rated games, which is likely, almost exactly break-even (though not for the same reason as some others making a similar estimate).

Trent Parker
31-01-2008, 10:07 AM
Actually Barry's Calculator still has september 07 ratings on his calc

Any chances of changing this over baz?

Spiny Norman
31-01-2008, 12:51 PM
I predict that I will still have a rating ... or not ... and I'm feeling rather subjective today and cannot provide any objective evidence that I will or won't. Being a brain in a vat, lacking consciousness and having a simplistic, defunct, concept of objective morality, well, this really puts me behind the eight ball on this issue. But I had a dream that I was rated 2600+ so I think I will go with that. :uhoh:

MichaelBaron
31-01-2008, 02:19 PM
I will have about 2325....so My offer of rating points for sale is still valid :)

Kevin Bonham
31-01-2008, 09:10 PM
My normal rating should go up about eight points as I have one normal-rated tournament going in at which I have performed at about 2030.

My rapid may actually go down a little since of the two rapid tournaments I have played I performed slightly above my rating in one, but actually lost a game in the other and 13/14 (so far) is just not good enough! However its exact fate (which could be down a fair lot, a little or about level) depends on games still to be played.

Southpaw Jim
02-02-2008, 10:44 PM
I expect about +80-120. Both mine and Barry's estimations last time were too conservative.

Garrett
04-02-2008, 06:51 AM
I am thinking I will gain around 8 points from the Aust Day tourney.

But I am also playing the Tin Cup and I usually only have to drive past the Gold Coast to lose a few rating points.

Alexrules01
12-02-2008, 08:02 PM
Well after my poor performance at the Australian Open, it will plumet, but after Toukley and hopefully Newcastle, My rating will stay roughly the same-1516.

Trent Parker
14-02-2008, 04:57 PM
Hey RW

Any chance of getting onto my request above?

Vlad
18-02-2008, 11:44 AM
Bill, a quick question for you. You mentioned that juniors are rated differently from what Barry's calculator estimates. Would it be approximately equivalent to changing the RD one level down?

More specifically: Anton's RD is "!", the estimation of his new rating under "!" is 1108. If I decrease his RD one step down that is if I make it an "empty space", I get an estimation of 1143. So, the question is which one is a better estimation? Thanks in advance.

Trent Parker
18-02-2008, 11:58 AM
Ne'er mind

I'll manually input them in

Ok here goes!

First cab off the rank: Australian Champs 7/10 against rated opponents
My rating calc goes from 1504 to 1495

Then Australia Day Weekender 2.5/6 against rated opponents
My rating Calc goes from 1495 to 1504

Then Toukley: 4/7 against rated opponents
1504 to 1517

Newcastle Open: 4/7 against rated opponents
1517 to 1537

Oh I forgot i played a couple of games in the Country teams championships:
1 / 2 against rated opponents

Rating goes from 1537 to 1534

Therefore 1534 is my vague educated guess

Bill Gletsos
18-02-2008, 12:00 PM
Bill, a quick question for you. You mentioned that juniors are rated differently from what Barry's calculator estimates. Would it be approximately equivalent to changing the RD one level down?Not really. The symbol represents the same RD whether they are established or new players (adult and juniors). The main difference is that for new players their volatility is higher which means that if they perform significantly different from their rating then their new rating changes quicker.

More specifically: Anton's RD is "!", the estimation of his new rating under "!" is 1108. If I decrease his RD one step down that is if I make it an "empty space", I get an estimation of 1143. So, the question is which one is a better estimation? Thanks in advance.I would stick with the !.

Trent Parker
18-02-2008, 12:01 PM
Mission for End June Quarter

- Win Doeberl Cup Minor
- Become inelligible for future minors!

Kevin Bonham
01-03-2008, 12:09 AM
My prediction for my normal rating was correct, but my rapid actually went up slightly (three points.)

Rincewind
01-03-2008, 12:20 AM
Actually Barry's Calculator still has september 07 ratings on his calc

Any chances of changing this over baz?

Sorry I haven't been following this thread lately. I'll try to update with March ratings soon.

Southpaw Jim
01-03-2008, 07:55 AM
I expect about +80-120. Both mine and Barry's estimations last time were too conservative.
+115 (1293) is at the upper end of this prediction.

There were a couple of points left on the table in that period that would've seen me crack 1300 :(