PDA

View Full Version : ACF December ratings 07 - Predictions



CameronD
01-11-2007, 03:20 PM
Please add your ACF predictions for the December 2007

Rincewind
01-11-2007, 05:21 PM
I think around +20 -> 1827

eclectic
01-11-2007, 05:27 PM
i predict one of three outcomes will occur:

rating(eclectic) < rating(eurotrash)
rating(eclectic) = rating(eurotrash)
rating(eclectic) > rating(eurotrash)

:rolleyes:

;)

Basil
01-11-2007, 06:01 PM
I predict old rating (1523) + a poofteenth = 1540

Desmond
01-11-2007, 06:49 PM
+10 ish

Aaron Guthrie
01-11-2007, 07:13 PM
Is there still that weird, if win a tournament, can't lose points for that tournament rule?

Rincewind
01-11-2007, 07:21 PM
Is there still that weird, if win a tournament, can't lose points for that tournament rule?

Sounds a bit archaic so I don't think so. Bill will know for sure.

Bill Gletsos
01-11-2007, 07:24 PM
Is there still that weird, if win a tournament, can't lose points for that tournament rule?That was in the FIDE rating system ages ago but has not applied for many years.

Aaron Guthrie
01-11-2007, 07:30 PM
2087 to 2141

Axiom
01-11-2007, 07:36 PM
2087 to 2141
-EDIT-

Axiom
01-11-2007, 07:40 PM
i predict one of three outcomes will occur:

rating(eclectic) < rating(eurotrash)
rating(eclectic) = rating(eurotrash)
rating(eclectic) > rating(eurotrash)

:rolleyes:

;)
you're seemingly , very confident there ec . :uhoh: :hmm: :eh: :whistle: :D

Aaron Guthrie
01-11-2007, 07:42 PM
:clap:If you like that (which is just a prediction!), have a close look at this list. ;)

http://chesschat.org/showpost.php?p=47621&postcount=11

Axiom
01-11-2007, 08:07 PM
If you like that (which is just a prediction!), have a close look at this list. ;)

http://chesschat.org/showpost.php?p=47621&postcount=11
oh dear ! ..........you should be ashamed of yourself ! :eek:

im sorry, but thats it ! ........... im going to have to delete that above emoticon...........im sure you will understand,.......i mean, ...under the circumstances, it just doesnt feel right, you know what i mean,...........i feel dirty, i have a sudden compulsion to have a shower !

Vlad
01-11-2007, 09:28 PM
Anton should be at least 300 points higher. Hopefully his rating can become a 4 figured number. Actually, that was pretty much what the North Sydney club’s arbiter said when we were leaving: "Next time when you come please come 4-figure-rated.":)

In comparison to Anton, my improvements are very modest, just around 30 rating points; main reasons were I did not play any weekenders and avoided George and Igor (main hunters for my rating points).:)

Axiom
01-11-2007, 11:46 PM
hunters for my rating points).:)
"hunters" :lol: :lol: :lol:

CameronD
02-11-2007, 12:10 AM
6W 0D 2L

True Performance Rating 1679

Old Rating 1347!
Barry calculator estimation 1440!
My Prediction 1426!

bergil
02-11-2007, 06:24 AM
I predict I will lose 70 -100 points ;)

DanielBell
02-11-2007, 07:01 PM
I predict I will lose 70 -100 points ;)

So you'll get to play in my division again next year!!!! :)

Kevin Bonham
02-11-2007, 08:07 PM
Think I'll lose about another ten points, well deserved punishment for an extremely scrappy equal first which was the only tournament I played in that will make next rating list. However when the next HICC event goes in I may get some of those back provided I do not drop any more half-points.

I could well even drop to #5 in the state (yikes), although two of those above me would have blank or ? beside their names.

My form this year has really been pretty ordinary. Working more of the time hasn't helped it. Have not played a rated tournament this year where I've been happy with my standard.

Southpaw Jim
03-11-2007, 11:19 PM
i predict one of three outcomes will occur:

rating(eclectic) < rating(eurotrash)
rating(eclectic) = rating(eurotrash)
rating(eclectic) > rating(eurotrash)


I suspect our current one hour tournament won't be finalised before December (Kevin?), so there'll be no change for me. So, if you go up, you'll almost certainly be ">eurotrash" :)

However, I'm currently 2.5/7 against stronger opponents (W:1397!!, W:1331!!, D:1499!, make of that what you will), with chances in my remaining 5 games. Presumably I should benefit from a rise once this tournament is over, either in the December or March ratings :hmm:

Spiny Norman
04-11-2007, 08:08 AM
I expect to lose ~20 points.

Kevin Bonham
04-11-2007, 12:41 PM
I suspect our current one hour tournament won't be finalised before December (Kevin?), so there'll be no change for me. So, if you go up, you'll almost certainly be ">eurotrash" :)

The One Hour won't be finalised in time for the December list. Too many players have too many games to go. It will be capped either at the end of year or if necessary sometime in January, and go in for the March list.

Trent Parker
14-11-2007, 11:32 PM
what did i do in September October and November?

I started off with the State Champs: 5w 0d 2L
Rating after state champs: 1520

Then I played up at the Gold Coast: 4w 0d 3L
Rating after Gold Coast:1499

Ooh Back to Ryde Eastwood Open: 2w 5l yikes!
Rating after RE 1473

Then I played up Coffs Harbour 4w 0d 3L
Rating after Coffs: 1463

Ok so only got 4 spots on Barry's Glicko calc yet and my computer decides to annoy me so i'll use the above rating for the following calcs

Then Parra club champs: 6 rated games: 5w 1L
Rating after Parra club ch 1511

Finally Fisher's Ghost Open which i'll only get 4 games out of:1w 1L 1D and one round to be played
1505 with one game in hand

MichaelBaron
15-11-2007, 10:20 PM
I expect to lose ~20 points.

If you ever need more rating points - message me and i can sell you mine.

Discounts given to Age Pensioners, Juniors and Ladies. :hmm:

Spiny Norman
16-11-2007, 07:08 AM
If you ever need more rating points - message me and i can sell you mine.
Deeply appreciate the offer Michael ... :D ... do you think we could get an independent valuation? ;)

Rincewind
16-11-2007, 12:39 PM
If you ever need more rating points - message me and i can sell you mine.

Discounts given to Age Pensioners, Juniors and Ladies. :hmm:

Michael, am I picking up a trend here?

http://www.chesschat.org/showpost.php?p=164860&postcount=25
http://www.chesschat.org/showpost.php?p=136669&postcount=16
http://www.chesschat.org/showpost.php?p=123414&postcount=197
http://www.chesschat.org/showpost.php?p=100398&postcount=55

MichaelBaron
17-11-2007, 12:39 AM
Michael, am I picking up a trend here?

http://www.chesschat.org/showpost.php?p=164860&postcount=25
http://www.chesschat.org/showpost.php?p=136669&postcount=16
http://www.chesschat.org/showpost.php?p=123414&postcount=197
http://www.chesschat.org/showpost.php?p=100398&postcount=55

Thats right - I am constantly on look out for customers :)

Rincewind
17-11-2007, 12:57 AM
Thats right - I am constantly on look out for customers :)

I respect a man who develops a business model and sticks to it, even in the face of adversity. Like a baseball diamond in a cornfield. If you build it, they will come. :)

Ian Rout
27-11-2007, 09:29 AM
Having now completed all my games for the quarter I will predict about 1846.

Bill Gletsos
27-11-2007, 08:43 PM
Having now completed all my games for the quarter I will predict about 1846.:clap: :clap:

Bill Gletsos
27-11-2007, 08:44 PM
I expect to lose ~20 points.:hmm: :hmm: :doh:

Bill Gletsos
27-11-2007, 08:46 PM
6W 0D 2L

True Performance Rating 1679

Old Rating 1347!
Barry calculator estimation 1440!:clap: :clap:

My Prediction 1426!:doh: :doh: :wall: :wall:

Bill Gletsos
27-11-2007, 08:46 PM
I think around +20 -> 1827:clap: :hmm:

Bill Gletsos
27-11-2007, 08:47 PM
I predict old rating (1523) + a poofteenth = 1540:doh: :hmm:

Bill Gletsos
27-11-2007, 08:49 PM
+10 ish:doh: :doh:

Bill Gletsos
27-11-2007, 08:50 PM
Anton should be at least 300 points higher. Hopefully his rating can become a 4 figured number. Actually, that was pretty much what the North Sydney club’s arbiter said when we were leaving: "Next time when you come please come 4-figure-rated.":):clap: :clap:


In comparison to Anton, my improvements are very modest, just around 30 rating points; main reasons were I did not play any weekenders and avoided George and Igor (main hunters for my rating points).:):clap: :clap:

Basil
27-11-2007, 08:50 PM
:doh: :hmm:
Oh dear :eek: That was a finger in the wind job. I'd better visit Barry's calc. Perhaps I have conveniently forgotten some embarrassments.

Desmond
27-11-2007, 08:51 PM
:doh: :doh:
:hmm: Redcliffe Club Champs would have cost me a few, but I thought I would have gained more than that in Surfers.

Bill Gletsos
27-11-2007, 08:52 PM
I predict I will lose 70 -100 points ;):clap: :hmm: :hmm:

Bill Gletsos
27-11-2007, 09:04 PM
:hmm: Redcliffe Club Champs would have cost me a few, but I thought I would have gained more than that in Surfers.Your estimate was too low, Gunner's too high.

Basil
27-11-2007, 09:22 PM
Your estimate was too low, Gunner's too high.
Lock in 1530 thanks, Eddie.

CameronD
27-11-2007, 09:50 PM
Lock in 1530 thanks, Eddie.

Maybe the ACF has made a manual adjusment to your score, gunner. :P

Basil
27-11-2007, 09:55 PM
Maybe the ACF has made a manual adjusment to your score, gunner. :P
No. I fear I have been guilty of over-estimating my own worth - much as Jono's cited paper from yesterday illustrates. The closer to ineptitude one is, the greater the propensity is for one to be unaware of it ;)

Spiny Norman
28-11-2007, 05:30 AM
I'm hoping this is a good sign. I didn't play many games, but I had one loss to an unrated player who is about to get his first rating and I didn't have any idea how that would affect me ...

Kevin Bonham
30-11-2007, 11:32 PM
I could well even drop to #5 in the state (yikes),

Just escaped this ignominious fate. Have a decent result going in in the next list.

Aaron Guthrie
01-12-2007, 06:15 AM
2087 to 2141I was 19 points off (in the wrong direction). I am guessing this is because my RD was probably already close to !, and some of my opponents probably also had bad runs.

Spiny Norman
01-12-2007, 06:18 AM
I'm hoping this is a good sign. I didn't play many games, but I had one loss to an unrated player who is about to get his first rating and I didn't have any idea how that would affect me ...
Doh! down more than 30 ... I suppose that's bound to happen on such small samples ...