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Garvinator
10-09-2006, 12:39 AM
Have been thinking about this on and off, so I thought I would create a poll on and see what the rest of chesschat thinks.

Currently the Coalition has been in government federally since 1996 and probably will win the next fed election next year.

Labor is in government in all states and territories and has just romped home again in QLD with a huge majority that will probably see it win the next election as well, no matter what happens in the next term.

So the question I thought I would poll is, who do you think will be the next state/territory/federal opposition to get into government?

bergil
10-09-2006, 02:16 AM
Have been thinking about this on and off, so I thought I would create a poll on and see what the rest of chesschat thinks.

Currently the Coalition has been in government federally since 1996 and probably will win the next fed election next year.

Labor is in government in all states and territories and has just romped home again in QLD with a huge majority that will probably see it win the next election as well, no matter what happens in the next term.

So the question I thought I would poll is, who do you think will be the next state/territory/federal opposition to get into government?
The ALP federally will be the next opposition to win an election and if so then the Libs in NSW because the only thing able to keep the ALP in NSW in power is John Howard.

Ian Murray
10-09-2006, 09:43 AM
At present electors are comfortable with Howard managing the economy and defence/homeland security, and equally comfortable with Labor managing the states. Don't expect a reversal any time soon.

Garrett
10-09-2006, 06:50 PM
At present electors are comfortable with Howard managing the economy and defence/homeland security, and equally comfortable with Labor managing the states. Don't expect a reversal any time soon.

Ahh, I can see it now. John Howard gets over excited at recieving a telegram from the queen on his 100th birthday five days out from the 2039 election that he has a heart attack and dies. Peter Costello, after 42 years as treasurer gets to be prime minister for 5 days before being beaten by the slightly more charismatic shining star of the labour party, honourable member for Rockhampton, daisy the cow.

Igor_Goldenberg
10-09-2006, 09:47 PM
As NSW was the first one to go from Liberal to Labor, it has slight chances to be first when the trend reverces.

but I don't see the trend (in both states and federal level) reversing any soon. However, it might happen overnight.

Kevin Bonham
12-09-2006, 03:27 AM
I certainly don't think it will be in Tasmania (which Garvin voted for). Our government has not long ago been resoundingly returned in an election which most sources expected it not to win outright (a psephologist mate of mine won $900 for an outlay of $100 off Centrebet by betting on a Labor majority!) Seemingly endless proprietry scandals have no effect on its popularity whatsoever, the Libs gained no new seats at the last Tassie election, and there is a general fear of a hung parliament that causes voters to stick with the government of the day. I once predicted Jim Bacon could be premier of Tas for 20 years - he bucked that trend by dying of cancer, but his government is still there and looking likely to stay that way for a while after 8.

Still thinking about my answer. NSW is looking tatty but if they get through this one there could well be two Federal polls before the next NSW one after that.

Oepty
12-09-2006, 09:00 PM
It won't be SA unless there is a major change here. The opposition is a joke. The only National party member in the parliment is minister in the Labor government and the government is being supported by a couple of former liberals now independents, one who is a minister. Most people seem to view upper house independent Nick Xenaphon (sp??) as the real opposition having gained more than 2 quotas in the upper house in his own right at the last election.
Scott