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Alan Shore
15-02-2004, 12:41 AM
At this stage, who will you most likely vote for in this year's Federal election?

Kevin Bonham
15-02-2004, 01:21 AM
I reckon you should change "Democrats" to "Greens" in the poll, the Greens will outpoll the Dems nationwide by a hefty margin this time.

Rincewind
15-02-2004, 06:37 AM
I reckon you should change "Democrats" to "Greens" in the poll, the Greens will outpoll the Dems nationwide by a hefty margin this time.

Yes, but will the Democrats outpoll One Nation?

Garvinator
15-02-2004, 11:21 AM
Yes, but will the Democrats outpoll One Nation?
and some independants will win seats too ;) :clap:

antichrist
15-02-2004, 12:04 PM
How come I was able to vote twice for other parties? I tried thrice, wanting to pump up One Nation but the so and so cease and desisted me

chesslover
16-02-2004, 10:28 PM
I reckon you should change "Democrats" to "Greens" in the poll, the Greens will outpoll the Dems nationwide by a hefty margin this time.
you are correct

the greens will be the biggest party outside the ALP and the coalition, and may even hold the balance of power in the Senate

The greens already have one MP in the House - something that the Dems could never ever do.

I would expect the Dems to be almost wiped out - as the entry of latham has energised the ALP and will lead to people who deserted the ALP flocking back.

Me I will not vote till closer to the date. I like latham a lot, and as Howard's spectacular "flip flop" on superannuation shows he has landed a big powerful blow on Howard. However Howard is promising tax cuts, and as well he has supported President Bush on the war on terror. But on the other hands Howard has behaved disgracefully in locking up refugees, pandering to ethonol producers, and in not supporting medicare.But then again Howard has made ASIO and other security agencies more power so that we can be safer from terrorists...I will wait till I decide

When I first voted in 1987 I voted for Hawke, then in 1990 Peacock, then in 1993 Keating, then in 1996 Keating, then 1998 Howard and 2001 Howard - so I have swung between both parties (3-3).

In fact was it not for the security issue, I would not have voted for Howard in 2001 and would not be seriously considering voting for him again this year. I suspect most people are like me, in that Howard is a "safe" option in these troubled times. Also before latham I would have voted for Dr Bob Brown for I admired the way he stood up to President Bush and the Chinese leader (even though I hate Brown's policies and how he insulted my President Bush). But with latham, I think the ALP has got someone with a passion and intellect to be one of the greatest leaders in our history

Similarly for the state elections I voted for the Libs in 1988 and 1991, and ALP in 1995, 1999 and 2003

and in local councils, I have always voted for independents as they are more likely to vote in the best interests of the community, than party hacks who follow orders from the state headquarters

eclectic
16-02-2004, 10:43 PM
You would think that after the recent cooperation the USA got from Australia with respect to the war for Iraqi "liberation" there'd be moves to have Australia annexed thus making Howard or Latham a governor of the 51st or 52nd or whatever US state.

We'd then be able to merge any Australian Politics threads with the US Presidential Election thread.

:hmm:

eclectic

chesslover
16-02-2004, 10:47 PM
You would think that after the recent cooperation the USA got from Australia with respect to the war for Iraqi "liberation" there'd be moves to have Australia annexed thus making Howard or Latham a governor of the 51st or 52nd or whatever US state.

We'd then be able to merge any Australian Politics threads with the US Presidential Election thread.

:hmm:

eclectic

what about the UK? they provided more help for President Bush in the waron terror than us?

Also so did Poland- it seems that they are the most pro-US country in Europe (after Blair's UK of course)

So we would probably have to line up behind these 2 countries :p

eclectic
16-02-2004, 11:06 PM
what about the UK? they provided more help for President Bush in the waron terror than us?

Also so did Poland- it seems that they are the most pro-US country in Europe (after Blair's UK of course)

So we would probably have to line up behind these 2 countries :p
We might be able to jump the queue if ...

1) the UK becomes preoccupied with waiting for the queen* to die

* or if she lasts as long as her mother the waiting is then for charlie to die

2) Poland is more concerned with watching an ailing Pope in Rome with a view to seeing if in the event of his death he might be succeeded by another Pole

pure cyberpolitical speculation of course

:p

eclectic

Kevin Bonham
17-02-2004, 12:05 AM
Yes, but will the Democrats outpoll One Nation?

This will depend on how big a campaign the Democrats run and whether they field candidates in most electorates or not. If they field in most seats I think they will do so, at least in the Senate, because the Dems still have a solid one or two percent in most places, whereas One Nation are only on the radar in a few little pockets and basically flatlining everywhere else.

It is a given that both parties will perform abysmally.

CL - if it is a half-senate election and not a double dissolution the Dems will remain a force as four of their senators will not face re-election.

paulb
17-02-2004, 01:11 AM
Looks like you're all a bunch of lofty lefties, ChessLover aside. Maybe poll should have Greens as an option, since they'll probably beat Dems and one nation.

Garvinator
17-02-2004, 01:20 AM
Looks like you're all a bunch of lofty lefties, ChessLover aside. Maybe poll should have Greens as an option, since they'll probably beat Dems and one nation.
i thought that was a given after the political compass results :lol: :eek:

Garvinator
17-02-2004, 01:22 AM
CL - if it is a half-senate election and not a double dissolution the Dems will remain a force as four of their senators will not face re-election.
which four arent up for re-election?

There is no chance of a double dissolution election, now that the coalition is on the run over mps superannuation. Call me a cynic :p , but when crean was alp leader, howard couldnt threaten dd quick enough, now that latham has become alp leader, I havent heard the words, dd, at all. Did all those mystery triggers suddenly disappear :doh:

Kevin Bonham
17-02-2004, 01:46 AM
which four arent up for re-election?

Don't remember which four it is offhand but I do know that they won Senate seats in WA, SA, VIC and QLD last election. They lost to the Greens in NSW and sank without a trace down here.


Call me a cynic :p , but when crean was alp leader, howard couldnt threaten dd quick enough, now that latham has become alp leader, I havent heard the words, dd, at all. Did all those mystery triggers suddenly disappear :doh:

There is a lot to be said for being a cynic.

Alan Shore
18-02-2004, 03:33 AM
The results of the QLD State Election have been finalised - a crushing victory to the ALP.

Party %vote seats won

ALP 47.2% 63
NAT 16.6% 15
LIB 18.5% 5
GRN 6.6% 0
ONP 4.9% 1
OTH 6.2% 5

Garvinator
18-02-2004, 10:42 AM
The results of the QLD State Election have been finalised - a crushing victory to the ALP.

Party %vote seats won

ALP 47.2% 63
NAT 16.6% 15
LIB 18.5% 5
GRN 6.6% 0
ONP 4.9% 1
OTH 6.2% 5
is there going to be some personal analysis of this result Bruce?

Alan Shore
18-02-2004, 11:37 PM
is there going to be some personal analysis of this result Bruce?

Well I don't know how far you want me to go with it.. I'm sure you'd be as aware of the stats as I am Garvin being from QLD..

As you can see, ALP won 63 of the possible 89 seats, with the Liberals winning just 5 (the liberals and nationals have not yet agreed upon a coalition since the disaster of the previous election). While this is still such a huge win, there was in fact a swing of 1.8% away from the ALP since the last election - such was the devestation of the previous election.

The Greens didn't win any seats but still achieved 6.6% of the primary vote, a large increase for them. One Nation retained 1 seat, with about a 4% swing against them.

As for the federal election, Mark Latham is looking a winner for Labour with a vast improvement in popularity from Simon Crean. I believe if the choice comes down to Latham or Peter Costello, then 'Mr Smug' will find himself in the Opposition come the end of the year.

firegoat7
19-02-2004, 04:57 PM
Not that I vote or really care about it but it always amazes me when people criticise Costello. On social justice issues he is streets ahead of Little Johnny and that boob Abbott.

Hopefully the greens will gain more ground, pretty enevitable really since environmental problems are only going to get worse. Just for the record, Does anyone know how many people died from air pollution worldwide lat year?

Regards FG7

P.S Bruce were you ever a frontman for Iron Maiden?

Alan Shore
19-02-2004, 05:16 PM
P.S Bruce were you ever a frontman for Iron Maiden?

Well spotted fg7 :) I'm really hoping IM will include Australia in their current 'Dance of Death' tour!

arosar
19-02-2004, 05:19 PM
These greenies are bloody useless! They're more stunt than substance. Being from Keating country meself - I say, 'ALP Rulezzz'!!!

AR

Kevin Bonham
19-02-2004, 07:42 PM
Not that I vote or really care about it but it always amazes me when people criticise Costello. On social justice issues he is streets ahead of Little Johnny and that boob Abbott.

Agreed. Whether he would stay that way if he was a PM with a healthy majority and an election years away - given his religious background - is anyone's guess. A credit to him if he would. Doubt we'll be finding out any time soon.


Hopefully the greens will gain more ground, pretty enevitable really since environmental problems are only going to get worse.

Some are, some aren't.


Just for the record, Does anyone know how many people died from air pollution worldwide lat year?

Not exactly, but I'd guess a few million, including exacerbation of existing conditions.

chesslover
04-03-2004, 10:51 PM
the latest poll that was released a couple of days ago, show that latham has a 62% approval record as the opposistion leader. This is only the 3rd time in history that an opposistion leader has reached this dizzy heights. The last time this happened was when Hawke got 62% in 1982 and Fraser got 64% in 1975 - and both went on to win govenment in very convincing manner with a huge majority

It seems that ALP now has a big lead over the Lib/Nats, and that if an election was held now they would return to power with a whopping 28 seat majority. No wonder Howard is getting worried!!

Indeed the extent of John Howard (who just celebrated 8 years as PM - only behind menzies and Hawke in the all time lists now) problems can be seen in the silly speculation that Costello will challenge Howard for the leadership before the elections. As if the Liberals would do that this close to the election, and swapping such an experienced canny leader like Howard with Costello is far fetched. However the airplay this sceanrio has received shows how panicky the Libs are, and that the media is sensing blood

The greens have a big 9% of the votes - more than double the democrats. If they keep this up they may well get the balance of power in the Senate, irrespective of who wins. Bob Brown the king maker!!

Goughfather
05-03-2004, 01:02 AM
the latest poll that was released a couple of days ago, show that latham has a 62% approval record as the opposistion leader. This is only the 3rd time in history that an opposistion leader has reached this dizzy heights. The last time this happened was when Hawke got 62% in 1982 and Fraser got 64% in 1975 - and both went on to win govenment in very convincing manner with a huge majority

Of course, a week is a long time in politics. Needless to say, the race is far from run. Six months out from the last poll, the ALP seemed to be in a similarly insurmountable position.

The ALP has the initiative and given the disunity of Liberal Party at the moment a slight material advantage, but it wouldn't surprise me if this initiative dies out, the "rats" in the Liberal Party close ranks and Howard finds a way to construct "Tampa-style" dynamic compensation.


Indeed the extent of John Howard (who just celebrated 8 years as PM - only behind menzies and Hawke in the all time lists now) problems can be seen in the silly speculation that Costello will challenge Howard for the leadership before the elections.

Who's been speculating this lately? From everything I have seen, consensus is that ideological differences between Howard and Costello mean that Costello has "done his dash". Who knows, perhaps Costello may because the new "Lazarus with a triple-bypass".


As if the Liberals would do that this close to the election, and swapping such an experienced canny leader like Howard with Costello is far fetched.

Well, they wouldn't do it primarily because Costello is in the doghouse, whereas Abbott and Nelson (and now even Turnbull) have ascended to the lofty heights of the top-storey penthouse.


The greens have a big 9% of the votes - more than double the democrats. If they keep this up they may well get the balance of power in the Senate, irrespective of who wins. Bob Brown the king maker!!

It appears more and more likely that this will be the case. At present, I forget how many Democrats are up for re-election (and conversely how many have a half-term still to run), but at current support, the Democrats look for near political oblivion. If they can stave off what seems at the moment to be the inevitable, they will still have a role to play within the newly formed Senate, and a chance to reinvent themselves. A close two-party preferred vote in the Senate will ensure that it is the Democrats, along with the Greens who will be able to influence the political landscape in Australia, whichever major party is ultimately successful later in this year's election.

Kevin Bonham
05-03-2004, 01:17 AM
It appears more and more likely that this will be the case. At present, I forget how many Democrats are up for re-election (and conversely how many have a half-term still to run), but at current support, the Democrats look for near political oblivion.

If it's a half-senate election three will face the people, and four will survive to fight another day. Last election they won in QLD, WA, Vic and SA. The election before they won WA, SA, NSW and QLD but their SA winner Meg Lees defected from the party. So their worst result is loss of three seats to leave four. The Greens best realistic result is six seats which would give them eight. I doubt they'll do quite that well. If they deal well on preferences the Dems may be able to save some of their seats even with quite low votes (say 3-4%). At present they're not even polling that.

Garvinator
31-03-2004, 12:17 AM
couldnt find the pauline hanson thread, so this will do. If i remember back to hansons maiden speech in the house of reps, one of her main points was that everyone should be treated in regards to government as exactly equal and that race should play no role in how government funding should be distributed.

With this ideal in mind, Pauline hanson proposed that atsic should be disbanded. Hmm didnt i just hear Mark Latham proposing the same idea just recently and John Howard muse over similar ideas about lack of confidence in atsic. So that would make another PHON party platform policy that will now be used by a major party.

Garvinator
31-03-2004, 12:20 AM
while im at it, remember back last year when the 51% sell off of telstra was blocked by the senate, john howard said something similar to- if the senate keeps blocking the governments legislation, ill send everyone back to the polls for a double dissolution.

Well well johnny, the telstra sell off was blocked again by the senate, so where is about dd talk now ;) :owned:

chesslover
31-03-2004, 12:28 AM
Well well johnny, the telstra sell off was blocked again by the senate, so where is about dd talk now ;) :owned:

Latham happened ;)