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ER
19-05-2009, 04:53 PM
According to my performances during the current ratings period, I would be very happy if my new rating will be 1250+

Miranda
19-05-2009, 05:01 PM
Hopefully my rating has climbed to over 1000... I was +153 last ratings, so will hopefully be +111 this time :)

ER
19-05-2009, 05:09 PM
Hopefully my rating has climbed to over 1000... I was +153 last ratings, so will hopefully be +111 this time :)
Miranda, of what I (and much stronger players) have observed, the positions you get in your games, indicate an understanding of a much higher rated player. If you try a bit harder and win won positions, your rating will increase drastically! Remember what I told you in Canberra: Winning national Championships regardless the age group or type of Chess is not an easy thing and you have done it! I am sure you will do it again!

Ninja
19-05-2009, 05:13 PM
Miranda, of what I (and much stronger players) have observed, the positions you get in your games, indicate an understanding of a much higher rated player. If you try a bit harder and win won positions, your rating will increase drastically! Remember what I told you in Canberra: Winning national Championships regardless the age group or type of Chess is not an easy thing and you have done it! I am sure you will do it again!But JAK , if ALL the promising juniors followed your advice your 1250+ would be looking very shaky!!

ER
19-05-2009, 05:20 PM
But JAK , if ALL the promising juniors followed your advice your 1250+ would be looking very shaky!!

lol :lol: :lol: :lol: they don't need my advice to make target practice out of the old bloke! Just come and have a look at my games vs all those BHCC and CJCC micro juniors! Not that I fall without a fight though, they have to earn their full or half points! Ask Victor Xie! :owned:

Miranda
19-05-2009, 05:29 PM
Winning won games is harder than it looks!

Actually for my birthday in 2007, I got a chess book called "Winning the won game"... I wasn't paticularly interested in chess at the time and lost it. Regret that now!

Desmond
19-05-2009, 08:09 PM
I think I will lose 2 points.

pappubahry
19-05-2009, 08:24 PM
I predict a rating of 3g. I'm assuming it's nine games required for a rating. :hmm:

Ian Rout
19-05-2009, 09:01 PM
Not too sure as it depends on how the Indians I played in the Doeberl are handled (I used to know that but I've forgotten), but in rough numbers I think I may go up 20-something to somewhere in the 1860s.

Alana
20-05-2009, 05:23 PM
According to Ian's calculatins for the Doeberl Minor (http://www.ianandjan.com/ian/results/weekenders/2009doeberl-cup.htm), I'm going up 29.5 points but I'm going down 10 from the last BCC tournament and probably about 5 for this one. So I'm sitting on 1350 or so? Yay! Only 50 points of the major for Doeberl next year XD

EDIT: Oh! And the Autumn Junior Weekender will send me down another 5 or so... :S So I'm going up like 10! :(

Vlad
20-05-2009, 06:57 PM
You are going up about 50 rating points from the Minor.

Alana
20-05-2009, 08:09 PM
really? that sounds too high. Only beat 2 people higher. Sure you've got the right person?

Alana
21-05-2009, 08:46 AM
Miranda, of what I (and much stronger players) have observed, the positions you get in your games, indicate an understanding of a much higher rated player. If you try a bit harder and win won positions, your rating will increase drastically! Remember what I told you in Canberra: Winning national Championships regardless the age group or type of Chess is not an easy thing and you have done it! I am sure you will do it again!

agree :D :clap: :clap: :clap:

Vlad
21-05-2009, 11:52 AM
really? that sounds too high. Only beat 2 people higher. Sure you've got the right person?

If you want to get a good estimate of your new rating you should use Barry's calculator.

http://www.bjcox.com/modules.php?name=Glicko_Calc

It uses Glicko 1 and gives you +33 for the Minor. I am using excel file with Glicko 2 (thanks to Barry) and Glicko 2 gives you +50 for the minor. It is still not 100% correct estimate because Bill uses endogeneous ratings, but it is the best one can get without putting too much effort in it.

I do not have your other results, but my guess is that you will end up with 1360+.

Kevin Bonham
21-05-2009, 02:10 PM
I think I'm about -3 from the Tas Champs. I drew with an FM but I also drew with a player rated slightly below me and a 1300s player.

My excessive rapid rating will take a big hit from my two losses in the first Rapid Series. I'm guessing that playing less rapids means my rapid rating changes much faster and hence the damage will be higher than it would be normally, maybe something like -70 but that is just a wild uneducated guess.

Vlad
21-05-2009, 03:41 PM
The FM is expected to gain 18 points (even though finished the Tasmanian champs in the negative due to one draw :lol:).

The under 12 Tasmanian champion is expected to gain 138 points (unless he will get accidentally taxed by GD :lol: ).

William AS
21-05-2009, 04:35 PM
May gain 40 points, more if lucky [depends on amount of system deflation] ;)

Alana
23-05-2009, 09:30 AM
If you want to get a good estimate of your new rating you should use Barry's calculator.

http://www.bjcox.com/modules.php?name=Glicko_Calc

It uses Glicko 1 and gives you +33 for the Minor. I am using excel file with Glicko 2 (thanks to Barry) and Glicko 2 gives you +50 for the minor. It is still not 100% correct estimate because Bill uses endogeneous ratings, but it is the best one can get without putting too much effort in it.

I do not have your other results, but my guess is that you will end up with 1360+.

Will do. :)

Let me see, I'm going down about 20 from Autumn Juniors, 7ish from Community Centre Cup, and if this current Belco tournament gets submitted on time there goes another 40ish points (lost to an 888 and a 1051).

Saragossa
23-05-2009, 09:34 AM
I think I'm going up but I don't really know how much by I'll guess 50ish or maybe around forty. but I know that I gained :D

Oepty
23-05-2009, 03:45 PM
Down a little bit.
Scott

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:14 PM
According to my performances during the current ratings period, I would be very happy if my new rating will be 1250+I think it will be much higher than that.

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:17 PM
Hopefully my rating has climbed to over 1000... I was +153 last ratings, so will hopefully be +111 this time :)Think more than +111.

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:22 PM
I predict a rating of 3g. I'm assuming it's nine games required for a rating. :hmm:3g is correct.

Rincewind
25-05-2009, 10:22 PM
I just hope the one tournament I played in gets rated. :lol:

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:23 PM
Not too sure as it depends on how the Indians I played in the Doeberl are handled (I used to know that but I've forgotten), but in rough numbers I think I may go up 20-something to somewhere in the 1860s.Good guess.

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:24 PM
According to Ian's calculatins for the Doeberl Minor (http://www.ianandjan.com/ian/results/weekenders/2009doeberl-cup.htm), I'm going up 29.5 points but I'm going down 10 from the last BCC tournament and probably about 5 for this one. So I'm sitting on 1350 or so? Yay! Only 50 points of the major for Doeberl next year XD

EDIT: Oh! And the Autumn Junior Weekender will send me down another 5 or so... :S So I'm going up like 10! :(Or maybe even 30+.

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:27 PM
I think I'm about -3 from the Tas Champs. I drew with an FM but I also drew with a player rated slightly below me and a 1300s player.-3 is close.

My excessive rapid rating will take a big hit from my two losses in the first Rapid Series. I'm guessing that playing less rapids means my rapid rating changes much faster and hence the damage will be higher than it would be normally, maybe something like -70 but that is just a wild uneducated guess.Nowhere near -70.

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:30 PM
The FM is expected to gain 18 points (even though finished the Tasmanian champs in the negative due to one draw :lol:).Around half that.

The under 12 Tasmanian champion is expected to gain 138 points (unless he will get accidentally taxed by GD :lol: ).That is very close.

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:31 PM
May gain 40 points, more if lucky [depends on amount of system deflation] ;)Closer to 30+.

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:36 PM
I think I'm going up but I don't really know how much by I'll guess 50ish or maybe around forty. but I know that I gained :DTry 80+.

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:37 PM
Down a little bit.
ScottWrong direction.

Basil
25-05-2009, 10:39 PM
When looking up 'trashed' or 'hammered' or 'died in the Arsenal' on Wiki, one will read 'Gunner Duggan's June rating drop'.

Why did I lose to these idiots??? (Because I am an idiot). I still haven't been able to enter into my collection a game against a 1000 player who was pinned 10 different ways to Hades, restricted to his own back three ranks and left with 'only' moves with two minutes on his clock. He didn't know what day it was, let alone his own name.

I lost (looking for 'the truth') instead of simply prosecuting the 'easy win'.

He's still laughing.

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:48 PM
I just hope the one tournament I played in gets rated. :lol:If you dont want to lose points pray that it doesnt. ;)

Malfegor01
25-05-2009, 10:53 PM
I am hoping to make up what I lost last time and (if I am lucky) add another few points on top!

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 10:55 PM
I am hoping to make up what I lost last time and (if I am lucky) add another few points on top!Sounds reasonable to me.

sleepless
25-05-2009, 11:34 PM
I'll probably lose about 60 points and put in some effort to pick them all up again next time round.

Bill Gletsos
25-05-2009, 11:40 PM
I'll probably lose about 60 points and put in some effort to pick them all up again next time round.More like half that.

ER
26-05-2009, 01:20 AM
(...) and left with 'only' moves (...)
According to FM Bill Jordan, they are the best moves!:whistle:

Kevin Bonham
26-05-2009, 02:00 AM
Nowhere near -70.

Yes, I should have remembered that the individuals who defeated me are both far from !!s and therefore losing to them won't hurt me as much. Plus even though I don't play that many rapids I played a large number on a recent list so my rapid RD won't be high. Maybe more like -30 then.

Bereaved
26-05-2009, 04:21 AM
I expect to go down or level,

Have played several strong juniors on the rise, not an excuse, an acknowledgement of how quickly they get to be strong themselves, with quite a few losses more than I am used to in a rating period.

Probably will be down, maybe even a lot down

Take care and God Bless, Macavity

Spiny Norman
26-05-2009, 05:24 AM
I only played one rated game this period, which I won ... so I predict I will increase maybe 5 points.

Ian Rout
26-05-2009, 09:30 AM
... and if this current Belco tournament gets submitted on time there goes another 40ish points (lost to an 888 and a 1051).
The good news is that BCCC09 hasn't come in yet so unless it does so pretty sharply you'll avoid that. The bad news is that it will be hanging over your head for another three months instead.

Rincewind
26-05-2009, 11:48 AM
If you dont want to lose points pray that it doesnt. ;)

Yes, Iljazi had a very strong result including a win over me (the first time for a few years). I'm sure he would want it rated. :)

Adamski
26-05-2009, 12:56 PM
Played 3 rated games in the period - two wins, one loss to higher rated Harry Ruan, an improving junior who went to the World Junior last year. So should rise slightly. Maybe 1590?
Intended to play more but my wife broke her foot in 4 places which, due to her immobility but nevertheless unreduced (indeed, increased) need for housework, curtailed my Feb - April chess activity.

Basil
26-05-2009, 01:01 PM
...but my wife broke her foot in 4 places...
The laundry, the bedroom, the garden and the shopping centre?

Adamski
26-05-2009, 01:03 PM
LOL - 4 metatarsal bones actually. The dangers of the Sydney Opera House steps (outside where she tripped as well as inside) were drastically shown.

Bill Gletsos
26-05-2009, 02:24 PM
I expect to go down or level,

Have played several strong juniors on the rise, not an excuse, an acknowledgement of how quickly they get to be strong themselves, with quite a few losses more than I am used to in a rating period.

Probably will be down, maybe even a lot downI dont think so.

Bill Gletsos
26-05-2009, 02:25 PM
I only played one rated game this period, which I won ... so I predict I will increase maybe 5 points.Or maybe even more.

Alana
26-05-2009, 04:29 PM
The good news is that BCCC09 hasn't come in yet so unless it does so pretty sharply you'll avoid that. The bad news is that it will be hanging over your head for another three months instead.

Excellent I hope Mos forgets to submit it in time. :)

Alana
26-05-2009, 04:30 PM
Think more than +111.

YAY! GO MIRANDA! Join us at the 1000+ level!

Tony Dowden
26-05-2009, 06:32 PM
Miranda, of what I (and much stronger players) have observed, the positions you get in your games, indicate an understanding of a much higher rated player.
I agree Miranda. I noticed you had some fantastic positions in Canberra.

Keep 'listening' to your pieces like England's top player GM Mickey Adams does. In my opinion the two main areas players of your age and strength can qickly improve are (1) improving your tactical vision, and (2) thinking more deliberately about the positioning of your minor pieces.

Let's look at these two issues in more detail. Practicing tactics and solving problems (without moving the pieces!) really does improve your tactics over the board. When I was a boy (a long time ago!) I used to read Purdy or Reinfeld but now there's a much better way that Sarah A. put me on to at the 2007 SIO. She told me I should try a piece of software called 'CT Art 3.0'. Well, I've got it and it works - wonderfully well. You can set it to an easy level and gradually move to higher levels (it goes up to about Level 12). My son who is about 300 rating points below you can do the first two levels, so you will be fine. (I find the top level virtually impossible but I've just about given up trying to get better!).

The other point is obvious to a strong player - say over 1800 - but probably won't become clear to you until you think about it for a bit and maybe look at some games played by strong players. When I look at a game played between people around 1200 or lower I nearly always notice that some of their pieces are doing nothing - especially their minor pieces. Bishops are blocked and knights don't have any good squares to go to. So this what I mean about 'listening' to your pieces. Where do they 'want' to go to? How can they work together? If you can start to answer these two questions you will make better plans and get better results. And get better positions for pulling off big tactics.

Plans? Well that is another story! But here's two quick points: three moves might be enough for a little plan to improve a minor piece or to grab a key square, and plans should be flexible and therefore adaptable according to your opponent's responses.

Yes, chess is a tough (but fun) game :lol:

Oepty
26-05-2009, 10:20 PM
Wrong direction.

Okay, good.
Scott

Trent Parker
27-05-2009, 02:47 AM
Using barry's glicko Calc I get: 1474

This does not take into account:
1/Parramatta Chess Club championships where I'm guestimating I'll gain maybe 15 points as a guesstimate
2/ The four unrateds I played at SIO

To the following ACT Players these rating points i'm giving you is a loan! I expect to be paid back with interest later on :lol: :lol:

Joshua Bishop: 39.2 ratings points losing to him at Dubbo and Doeberl
Jake McCook: 25.9 ratings points after drawing with him in Doeberl and losing to him in SIO

SO! I predict i'll lose about 60 ratings points this period from 1553 to about 1490-1495

Alana
27-05-2009, 09:19 AM
To the following ACT Players these rating points i'm giving you is a loan! I expect to be paid back with interest later on :lol: :lol:

Joshua Bishop: 39.2 ratings points losing to him at Dubbo and Doeberl
Jake McCook: 25.9 ratings points after drawing with him in Doeberl and losing to him in SIO



:clap: :clap: :clap: No offense Trent but GO ACT!!!

Bill Gletsos
27-05-2009, 11:43 AM
Using barry's glicko Calc I get: 1474

This does not take into account:
1/Parramatta Chess Club championships where I'm guestimating I'll gain maybe 15 points as a guesstimate
2/ The four unrateds I played at SIO

To the following ACT Players these rating points i'm giving you is a loan! I expect to be paid back with interest later on :lol: :lol:

Joshua Bishop: 39.2 ratings points losing to him at Dubbo and Doeberl
Jake McCook: 25.9 ratings points after drawing with him in Doeberl and losing to him in SIO

SO! I predict i'll lose about 60 ratings points this period from 1553 to about 1490-1495About half that loss.

bergil
27-05-2009, 12:24 PM
To the following ACT Players these rating points i'm giving you is a loan! I expect to be paid back with interest later on :lol: :lol:

Joshua Bishop: 39.2 ratings points losing to him at Dubbo and Doeberl
Jake McCook: 25.9 ratings points after drawing with him in Doeberl and losing to him in SIO

SO! I predict i'll lose about 60 ratings points this period from 1553 to about 1490-1495Joshua is coming up to Parramatta to get some more sugar from you Trent in the VSW Open Under 1600 :lol:

Adamski
27-05-2009, 09:25 PM
Joshua is coming up to Parramatta to get some more sugar from you Trent in the VSW Open Under 1600 :lol:Is this the supporting Victorian South Wales event, bergil? JaK should play in that! I am sure you and he will agree with this though: Go Man U in the early hours!

Miranda
27-05-2009, 09:51 PM
Thanks for all the advice Tony, I will definatly take it on board! :)

Trent Parker
28-05-2009, 12:52 PM
:clap: :clap: :clap: No offense Trent but GO ACT!!!

Righto lass! you're gunna be in our territory this time...... We're gunna kick ur butts back to the act!!

Alana
28-05-2009, 03:09 PM
Good luck with that! :P

Hey guys do you know if anyone submitted the current Belconnen Chess Club tournament (BCC Championship)? I'd be glad if they haven't - going down 30-ish from it.

Ian Rout
28-05-2009, 03:30 PM
Hey guys do you know if anyone submitted the current Belconnen Chess Club tournament (BCC Championship)?
Not as yet. I sent an e-mail to a couple of people at the beginning of the week but had no response. Belconnen used to be much more efficient.

Fenguin
28-05-2009, 07:12 PM
I'm thinking(and hoping) that my rating will be from 1520's to 1550's.... With an easy draw(even though everyone I faced were at least 100+ points above me) at Doeberl Major scoring 3.5/7, and a good win against Tony Weller, and a draw to Paul Glissan in the Sydney International Challengers, I'm sure my prediction could be correct!

Alana
29-05-2009, 03:55 PM
Not as yet. I sent an e-mail to a couple of people at the beginning of the week but had no response. Belconnen used to be much more efficient.

Yeah sure were. I think Mos has the files but just hasn't sent them off yet. I could get them tonight but wont have time to submit them in time for ratings because of Women and Girls this weekend.

Bill Gletsos
29-05-2009, 04:05 PM
I could get them tonight but wont have time to submit them in time for ratings because of Women and Girls this weekend.If you get the files then a simple email of them to Ian is all that is required. ;)

Alana
30-05-2009, 08:57 PM
Just realised that the ratings lookup on Barry's website is from December ratings. Is that fixable?

Alana
30-05-2009, 09:00 PM
hmmmm wonder what my rapid is doing. Got about 60 games this quarter

Rincewind
30-05-2009, 10:43 PM
Just realised that the ratings lookup on Barry's website is from December ratings. Is that fixable?

Yes. Fixed now.

Vlad
30-05-2009, 11:07 PM
For another day...;)

Rincewind
30-05-2009, 11:13 PM
For another day...;)
I deliberately don't update the ratings immediately at the start of a rating period. My thought is people might prefer to have the last periods ratings there so they can look at the latest ratings adjustment.

Sometime later I update it. Either when I think of it or when someone reminds me about it.

Vlad
03-06-2009, 01:08 PM
I deliberately don't update the ratings immediately at the start of a rating period. My thought is people might prefer to have the last periods ratings there so they can look at the latest ratings adjustment.


Given that Bill uses endogeneous ratings, do not you think that using updated ratings gives a better estimate?

Rincewind
03-06-2009, 04:53 PM
Given that Bill uses endogeneous ratings, do not you think that using updated ratings gives a better estimate?

Quite possibly but in depends on your purpose. In terms of analysing the calculator's utility as a predictive tool then you should work with the old ratings. In terms of analysing the source of your present rating adjustment it may be best if the calculator used the subject's prior rating the the present ratings of their opponents.