View Poll Results: Who will win? (This poll asks who will win, not who do you want to win)

Voters
11. You may not vote on this poll
  • Clinton (350+ EC votes)

    2 18.18%
  • Clinton (300-349 EC votes)

    5 45.45%
  • Clinton (270-299 EC votes)

    2 18.18%
  • Trump (270-299 EC votes)

    0 0%
  • Trump (300-349 EC votes) - CORRECT

    1 9.09%
  • Trump (350+ EC votes)

    1 9.09%
  • No electoral college majority

    0 0%
  • Someone else

    0 0%
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  1. #4906
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    From a conservative or libertarian viewpoint, what Trump has achieved is still better than what Hillary would have done. And most of his "governing by executive order" is undoing Obamov's executive orders. So the relevant comparison is not Trump vs perfection, or even Trump vs Cruz (say), but Trump vs Hillary.
    That's probably true, but you were arguing that Trump is winning. Using executive orders that can be undone by the next President rather than passing legislation is not really winning. Obamacare was an example of a real win by a President.

  2. #4907
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    It's amazing that those who loved Obamov for adding trillions to the national debt suddenly become deficit hawks when tax rate cuts are proposed, aka the government confiscates less of people's hard earned money.
    I'm not being a deficit hawk (or dove) but pointing out that the budget (particularly the projected GDP growth of 3%) is not based in reality.

    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    Because that and his protectionism are harmful economic policies, unlike his tax proposal which should masssively stimulate the economy (in the proper sense of the word).
    We'll see but most economists remain skeptical of it delivering a 3% groth. Part of the problem is his immigration policy will likely hamper GDP growth and even the parental care provision will likely have a small impact on labour participation which will also hamper growth (but probably not as significantly).
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  3. #4908
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    Some excitement in the Montana special election, which was already very close in what should be a safe Republican seat, when this happened:
    Republican House special election Greg Gianforte isn’t in a Montana jail for assaulting a reporter tonight because the sheriff is a donor to his campaign. Don Pogreba found the donor record, and guess what he found? Sheriff Brian Gootkin is a donor to the Republican’s campaign, “Sheriff Brian Gootkin, who, according to press accounts, has not interviewed Greg Gianforte following an alleged assault, was a donor to Gianforte’s campaign two months ago.” This does explain why Gianforte isn’t sitting in jail right now. If you or I assaulted someone for asking us a question we would be sitting behind bars, but when you are the Republican candidate in a House special election in Montana, you get to flee the scene while the assault that was witnessed by many others is “under investigation:”
    One would like to think that Republicans wouldn't support a candidate who violently assaults an innocent reporter. But given the continuing support for Trump, I'm not optimistic.

  4. #4909
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    One would like to think that Republicans wouldn't support a candidate who violently assaults an innocent reporter.
    I wouldn't.

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    But given the continuing support for Trump, I'm not optimistic.
    Support for Trump, or just realizing that he was the only way to keep Hillary from the White House? Also, most of the time it's the Leftists who are fomenting violence, beating up Trump supporters and stopping conservatives from speaking, including Ben Shapiro who didn't even vote for Trump. FLASHBACK: Democratic Congressman Attacked Student Journalist...And Democrats Defended It!
    Last edited by Capablanca-Fan; 26-05-2017 at 08:38 AM.
    “Liberals [leftists] seem to assume that, if you don't believe in their particular political solutions, then you don't really care about the people that they claim to want to help.”—Thomas Sowell
    “If gender is all in your head then so is gender discrimination.”—Mike Adams

  5. #4910
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    So the Republicans were colluding with Russia during the Presidential election:
    The hacking spree that upended the presidential election wasn’t limited to Democratic National Committee memos and Clinton-aide emails posted on websites. The hacker also privately sent Democratic voter-turnout analyses to a Republican political operative in Florida named Aaron Nevins. Learning that [Russian] hacker “Guccifer 2.0” had tapped into a Democratic committee that helps House candidates, Mr. Nevins wrote to the hacker to say: “Feel free to send any Florida-based information.” Ten days later, Mr. Nevins received 2.5 gigabytes of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee documents, some of which he posted on a blog called HelloFLA.com that he ran using a pseudonym.

  6. #4911
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    Support for Trump, or just realizing that he was the only way to keep Hillary from the White House? Also, most of the time it's the Leftists who are fomenting violence, beating up Trump supporters and stopping conservatives from speaking, including Ben Shapiro who didn't even vote for Trump. FLASHBACK: Democratic Congressman Attacked Student Journalist...And Democrats Defended It!
    Note my use of the present tense when I referred to support of Trump. And that incident (from seven years ago!) is minor compared to what happened in Montana - there was no body slamming or punching.

  7. #4912
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    And that incident (from seven years ago!) is minor compared to what happened in Montana - there was no body slamming or punching.
    Gianforte is charged over that but still seems to have won Montana at large by around 7%. Not a great result but perhaps not that terrible considering the punch up might have cost him some votes.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  8. #4913
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Montana has a very high rate of early voting so even if the incident hurt Gianforte's vote, the election was already in the can.

    As the polling for special elections is abysmal (average error on the margin 13 points according to Nate Silver) it is impossible to really say whether the incident hurt his vote or not. The claimed belief of both camps was that Gianforte was only slightly ahead before it but it's common for both the favourite and the underdog to say the favourite is narrowly ahead.

    I've often tried to retrieve smoke signals of incidents that happened in the campaign from voting results in Australia and it's usually extremely difficult to do. Incidents don't seem to make that much difference.

  9. #4914
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    Note my use of the present tense when I referred to support of Trump. And that incident (from seven years ago!) is minor compared to what happened in Montana - there was no body slamming or punching.
    Another leftist who doesn't seem to mind violence from Dems as long as it's "minor".

    I do mind violence from Republicans. If the accounts are right, Gianforte's conduct was reprehensible and inexcusable.
    “Liberals [leftists] seem to assume that, if you don't believe in their particular political solutions, then you don't really care about the people that they claim to want to help.”—Thomas Sowell
    “If gender is all in your head then so is gender discrimination.”—Mike Adams

  10. #4915
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    Another leftist who doesn't seem to mind violence from Dems as long as it's "minor". I do mind violence from Republicans. If the accounts are right, Gianforte's conduct was reprehensible and inexcusable.
    Where did I say that I didn't mind it? I just pointed out that what Gianforte did was much worse.

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