Page 6 of 79 FirstFirst ... 456781656 ... LastLast
Results 76 to 90 of 1179
  1. #76
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Brisbane
    Posts
    13,073
    Do you still want that bet Boris

  2. #77
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    on the skin of the pale blue dot
    Posts
    12,324
    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    Do you still want that bet Boris
    You didn't when I asked.

  3. #78
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    37,488
    An issue worth watching in close seats is that the Greens are threatening to refuse to direct preferences, which may lead to high exhaust rates under the optional preferential system.

    However if Labor's lead on primaries across the state as a whole is large enough, it will not matter.

  4. #79
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    37,488
    I hesitate to mention any Crikey related site at this moment given that they have just incompetently and incorrectly cut my email subscription despite acknowledging receipt of my renewal (and despite two emails from me saying I was incorrectly getting impending-expiry emails).

    However, there is a blog called Pineapple Party Time with coverage and electoral analysis of the election by various psepho bloggers that some may find of interest.

    I am getting the impression that although the Labor Government is unimpressive and its campaigning superficial, it will very likely be returned because the Opposition is a rabble led by a dimwit. Are these perceptions reasonable?

  5. #80
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Subtropical Brisbane, Australia
    Posts
    11,232
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    I am getting the impression that although the Labor Government is unimpressive and its campaigning superficial, it will very likely be returned because the Opposition is a rabble led by a dimwit. Are these perceptions reasonable?
    I might be biased , or I might be entirely accurate, or both depending on one's orientation. Anyhoo...
    Wot U sed about Laba is accurate.
    Wot U sed about LNP is accuarate save for the dimwit part although he doesn't help himself with his act much.




    Not a great deal of talent between them.
    Springborg has always been a tad too negative for my liking.
    Did I mention that state politics makes very little difference to very much, anywhere, ever? Even in Bjelke's time. Yup. Carry on!
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  6. #81
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    on the skin of the pale blue dot
    Posts
    12,324
    Yeah the Labor gov't is pretty useless. But it was last time, and the time before that too, and still won due to even more useless opposition. Don't see that changing this year.

    Beattie was a stone around their neck. He had been there too long and was associated with too many cock-ups. He left in time for Bligh to get set as leader before the next election. If Howard had done the same maybe the Liberals would be in Federal gov't today.

  7. #82
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    37,488
    A Galaxy poll today returned a 50-50 2PP. Although it is early, the sample size is only 800 and this company is widely seen as returning results a little favourable to conservatives, this is worth paying attention to. The previous Galaxy was 52-48. A result around 50-50 may not be bad for Labor depending on the primary as the swing the LNP need (assuming even distribution) is a fair bit more than that.

  8. #83
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Brisbane
    Posts
    13,073
    As usual, I think these type of across the board percentages are not that meaningful and what is more telling is what information is coming out from the marginal seats, to which I have no information at this stage.

    Another factor which I think will be important is how the floods will affect voting, not from a who will vote for whom, as in a vote changer, but from a purely who can get to the polls point of view

    Remember the floods, I know they were not reported in the southern media, but they did cover half our state.

  9. #84
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    37,488
    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    Another factor which I think will be important is how the floods will affect voting, not from a who will vote for whom, as in a vote changer, but from a purely who can get to the polls point of view

    Remember the floods, I know they were not reported in the southern media, but they did cover half our state.
    I was listening to independents Liz Cunningham and Peter Wellington discussing this very issue today. The issue is not so much that people will be unable to vote - that is likely to be fixable, and voting can always be postponed in certain electorates if needs be. The issue one of them raised (I think it was Cunningham) was that large parts of the state are in such a mess that it will be very difficult to campaign effectively in them. This, of course, favours the government.

  10. #85
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Brisbane
    Posts
    13,073
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    I was listening to independents Liz Cunningham and Peter Wellington discussing this very issue today. The issue is not so much that people will be unable to vote - that is likely to be fixable, and voting can always be postponed in certain electorates if needs be. The issue one of them raised (I think it was Cunningham) was that large parts of the state are in such a mess that it will be very difficult to campaign effectively in them. This, of course, favours the government.
    It favours the government in this case because the government is Labor and we are talking about a country area which is likely to vote LNP/independant.

    If the seats are postponed till after March 21 and the rest of the state votes on March 21, it is highly likely that a result will be known before those delayed seats will go to the polls, making their seats irrelevant to the overall contest, to which I am sure the Labor strategist teams factored in before deciding when to call the election.

  11. #86
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Brisbane
    Posts
    13,073
    Latest reported polling out from Galaxy showing 51/49 lead for LNP. Would like to see polling from other polling groups to see if this is truly representative.

    Not sure who this result advantages though. The general sentiment seemed to be that Labor was going to be returned and so there was a good chance of a protest vote, so if this protest vote was high enough and there was already enough people wanting to vote LNP/minority parties, then Labor could have been rolled ie Goss in 95.

    Now with this poll and especially if there is another one like it, LNP could be seen as a real chance of winning and so the idea of just giving a protest vote for the sake of a protest vote goes away.

    Of course, for those that want to see Labor lose the election, these polls can give them real cause for inspiration to rally the cause and get more people to vote LNP primary as it is not just a wasted vote as they are voting for a genuine chance of becoming the next government.

  12. #87
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    37,488
    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    Latest reported polling out from Galaxy showing 51/49 lead for LNP. Would like to see polling from other polling groups to see if this is truly representative.
    Most recent Newspoll (released about a week ago) was the same.

    Now with this poll and especially if there is another one like it, LNP could be seen as a real chance of winning and so the idea of just giving a protest vote for the sake of a protest vote goes away.
    Yes, it brings the scare campaign factor into play; Labor can say that if people vote for the LNP it might actually win and see if that's enough to scare them into not doing so. But whether voters will care is another question. Both parties appear to be too boring to actually scare anyone.

    When I commented back in late Feb it was looking like the campaign would be a walk in the park for Labor but it looks a lot closer now and it's clear that some in Labor are seriously panicking.

    However we have still to see which way undecided voters break and in such a boring campaign they will usually break for the government.

  13. #88
    . eclectic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    .
    Posts
    2,840
    is the fate of bligh dependant on whether the electorate mutiny over the bounty?
    .

  14. #89
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    37,488
    Quote Originally Posted by eclectic
    is the fate of bligh dependant on whether the electorate mutiny over the bounty?
    Some of them might mutiny over the Pacific Adventurer.

  15. #90
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Brisbane
    Posts
    13,073
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    However we have still to see which way undecided voters break and in such a boring campaign they will usually break for the government.
    I think more of a factor is that most of the voters believe that neither side can fix the states many problems .

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •