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  1. #811
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    In the last sixty years seven (22%) out of 32 state governments seeking their first re-election have lost. The most recent examples were the Borbidge government in Queensland in 1998 (it hadn't even served a full first term) and the Field Labor minority government in Tasmania in 1992.

    First-term governments have had higher defeat rates if any of the following are true:

    1. They are the same party as the federal government of the time.
    2. They did not have a majority when they sought re-election.
    3. They had a mid-term change of Premier.

    I think based on historical evidence it will be a minor miracle if the Napthine government retains, though I don't completely rule it out as the polling is still reasonably close.
    Obviously then Victoria must hold the record for continuous two term state governments since the '50s (?)
    Excellent historical information as well as very interesting statistical data!
    Thanks for providing!
    Last edited by ER; 20-11-2014 at 07:09 PM.
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  2. #812
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elliott Renzies View Post
    Obviously then Victoria must hold the record for continuous two term state governments since the '50s (?)
    It shares it with NSW. In that time WA has had one one-term government, Queensland has had one (not even a full term actually), Tasmania has had two and SA has had three. I used sixty years ago as the cutoff because before then things get messy in Vic especially with all the Country/Liberal three-cornered instability.

  3. #813
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Posts moved

    Posts concerning proposed Victorian Labor anti-discrimination laws, the response of the Rev Dr Mark Durie to them, and the usual generic discussion that such posts lead to, have been moved here:

    http://www.chesschat.org/showthread....imination-laws

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  5. #815
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    I'm doing live comments on the Vic election at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2...ction-day.html
    Excellent discussion, I follow closely! not so much out of interest in party politics but definitely for strength and clarity of ideas expressed!

    PS I would also suggest to Dr Bonham blog's readers to keep on refreshing / reloading the page since it (at least in my case) does not refresh / reload itself
    Last edited by ER; 29-11-2014 at 07:26 PM.
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  6. #816
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elliott Renzies View Post
    Excellent discussion, I follow closely! not so much out of interest in party politics but definitely for strength and clarity of ideas expressed!
    PS I would also suggest to Dr Bonham blog's readers to keep on refreshing / reloading the page since it (at least in my case) does not refresh / reload itself
    Kevin's blog is indeed excellent, but the Victorian election is effectively over: one first term LNP government down, three (well, probably only one) to go!

  7. #817
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Yes healthy swing to Labor resulted in the Lib/Nats getting tossed out after only one term. Labor should be able to control the lower house in their own right but will have to manage a multifaceted coalition to get bills through the upper house.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  8. #818
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    Yes healthy swing to Labor resulted in the Lib/Nats getting tossed out after only one term. Labor should be able to control the lower house in their own right but will have to manage a multifaceted coalition to get bills through the upper house.
    The good news is it looks like they only need the support of the Greens and the Shooters and Fishers to pass legislation.

    That is if they can find anything those two agree on!

  9. #819
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    Well done Crapthine. You spent your premiership appeasing the abortionists, the homosexuals, and the Islamists, bleating about the Federal Government repealing 18C as they promised, and in general being Labor-Lite, and look where it got you! Vic Coalition needs a lot of house-cleaning, so next time they can provide an alternative to Labor instead of a poor imitation.
    Last edited by Capablanca-Fan; 30-11-2014 at 02:07 AM.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  10. #820
    CC International Master Goughfather's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    Well done Crapthine.
    If we needed any more evidence that Jono has the maturity of an eight year-old, here it is.
    "People with guns don't understand. That's why they get guns. Too many misunderstandings." - Jerry Seinfeld, The Little Kicks

  11. #821
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    Well done Crapthine. You spent your premiership appeasing the abortionists, the homosexuals, and the Islamists, bleating about the Federal Government repealing 18C as they promised, and in general being Labor-Lite, and look where it got you!
    It got him exactly where my federal-state drag model said it would. Five months ago I showed and published that a combination of age of government and the party in power in Canberra predicted a c. 75% chance of seat losses for the Liberals at this election. As they had no margin to lose this meant probable defeat irrespective of polls or their record in government. It looks like their losses have landed either exactly or almost exactly on the model's median prediction of six seats.

    When you add in the unpopularity of the federal government, which is also a drag factor, I think it's impressive that the Liberals were only narrowly beaten and not belted. I do however think that (i) the mostly strong Victorian economy (ii) Labor's risky tactics on the East-West link, contributed to that.

    Of course it is especially amusing that the right will now try to blame the moderates for the result when a major contributing factor was the turbulence (resulting in the loss of the government's majority, Speaker and arguably first Premier) caused by an anti-abortionist nutcase.

  12. #822
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    It seems odd that anyone would claim (from either side) that centrist policy lost an election. In a two party system the capture of the centrist vote is significant if not critical and if anything alienating the centrist voter will lose an election more often than not.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  13. #823
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    It seems odd that anyone would claim (from either side) that centrist policy lost an election. In a two party system the capture of the centrist vote is significant if not critical and if anything alienating the centrist voter will lose an election more often than not.
    Typically so, with the caveat that it is a compulsory vote election, and especially so under compulsory preferences. In an optional voting election like in the US, a candidate seen as too centrist can lose votes because the base is not enthused to go out and vote for them.

    There can sometimes be cases where a major party needs to position towards a flank to appease or deflate a fringe party but this isn't one of them. Howard's treatment of One Nation was an example of this.

    Of course right-wingers often argue that the most right-wing candidates for their own party are the most electable but that left-wing candidates for the other party are not, which all makes very little sense.

  14. #824
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    The other thing that might happen in some seats is bleeding votes to a less centrist alternative. Like Lib -> Country or Family First or ALP bleeding to Green. With the way preferences work this may lead to more minor party candidates getting up but in general they will work with the major party of the same persuasion and so while one or two members might find themselves out of a job, it won't change who can form government.

    Yes non-compulsory voting might change the dynamic and perhaps that was a problem the Democrats suffered from at the last mid-terms.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  15. #825
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goughfather View Post
    If we needed any more evidence that Jono has the maturity of an eight year-old, here it is.
    I think you are being very unfair to 8 year-olds....
    Still searching for Bobby Fischer....
    and fighting against those humourless bureaucrats who are forever lost in the minutiae.

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