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  1. #31
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Looks like WA has itself a hung parliament as it looks like the best Labor is really likely to do is 26 plus two friendly independents. (30 needed for majority). Libs will need National and Independent support to govern. Nationals said they wouldn't go into coalition so will be interesting to see what happens. Greens extremely close to winning Fremantle but on current figures will finish a close third (if they beat the Libs for second they win on preferences but that isn't happening at the moment.)

  2. #32
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Now looking like Labor might manage 27 seats plus the two pro-Labor independents but 28 is out of reach, making it possible for Barnett to form a majority government if supported by the Nationals and the other two Independents.

  3. #33
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Now looking like Labor might manage 27 seats plus the two pro-Labor independents but 28 is out of reach, making it possible for Barnett to form a majority government if supported by the Nationals and the other two Independents.
    How much will the Nats demand though?

    Rudd must be concerned though. No way he will try a double dissolution if the Senate blocks his bills now.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  4. #34
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    How much will the Nats demand though?
    Probably an obscenely large quantity of rural pork, which the Libs will then deliver. I also wonder what Janet Wollard will demand should it turn out that the Libs need her for their 30. They may not need her depending on results; if they can win another seat above what they currently look like getting then they can govern with the Nats and Constable.

    Rudd must be concerned though. No way he will try a double dissolution if the Senate blocks his bills now.
    I wouldn't read any federal implications into this. The Libs are still a joke federally and yesterday nearly lost Downer's old seat to the Greens and an independent. The Nationals lost yet another federal seat to a local independent and by a ridiculous margin. What this and the NT result do show is that now that there is a popular Labor federal government, voters will be much less forgiving of bad and corrupt Labor state administrations and will no longer keep propping them up just because the opposition is a rabble.

  5. #35
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    WA Nationals leader Brendon Grylls has been promoting the "Royalties for Regions Policy" for several years, under which 25% of mining royalties are used for expenditure in rural areas. Both major parties were never interested, and Liberal leader Colin Barnett refused to meet Grylls once the election was held. In hindsight this seems surprising but I suppose he thought that with new one vote one value redistributions applying to the lower house for the first time that it was not worth it.

    Last night Grylls maintained that the WA Nationals were a completely independent party and would be willing to discuss partnership (not coalition) options with either side - with Royalties for Regions being non-negotiable. Political journalists (plus Stephen Smith and Julie Bishop on ABC TV) were incredulous at the option of a Labor-National government. Carpenter said it was an option Labor would definitely discuss and mentioned the position in SA where there is a National minister in the Labor government. A partnership with the Nationals is probably the only option for Labor, but seems like a pretty unstable position to me.

    Carpenter confirmed today that he and Grylls were to meet this afternoon. Barnett and Grylls are apparently meeting tomorrow. Prior to the meeting today Carpenter and Grylls repeated their positions in the media, while Barnett said that Nationals voters would expect a change of government.

    A quote from a commentator in Friday's paper:

    Labor deserves to lose the election. The Liberals haven't done enough to win.

  6. #36
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Probably an obscenely large quantity of rural pork, which the Libs will then deliver.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    I also wonder what Janet Wollard will demand should it turn out that the Libs need her for their 30. They may not need her depending on results; if they can win another seat above what they currently look like getting then they can govern with the Nats and Constable.
    Aren't both Liz Constable and Janet Wollard closer to the Libs in policitical philosophy?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    I wouldn't read any federal implications into this.
    It might show that voters are likely to punish opportunistic snap elections.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    The Libs are still a joke federally and yesterday nearly lost Downer's old seat to the Greens and an independent.
    That's embarrassing for them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    The Nationals lost yet another federal seat to a local independent and by a ridiculous margin.
    The Nats seem on a downward slope to oblivion, but it will be slow and painful. But while they can, this tail will probably want to wag the dog for all it can.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    What this and the NT result do show is that now that there is a popular Labor federal government, voters will be much less forgiving of bad and corrupt Labor state administrations and will no longer keep propping them up just because the opposition is a rabble.
    Why are the two related?
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trizza
    A quote from a commentator in Friday's paper:
    The paper is part of the problem for Carpenter. The West Australian has had a grossly anti-Labor bias for some considerable time. It was interesting to hear former Liberal leader Matt Birnie's comments on the subject last night (he was very critical of the paper).

    Another big issue, I think was Carpenter's deeply cynical calling of the election the day after the Libs changed leader. I think that offended many people's sense of fair play, and they voted accordingly.

  8. #38
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    As for the pork, we've seen the price:

    Full article here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...section=justin

    I suspect both parties will try to cut deals. It's an especially tricky situation for Labor because if they refuse to cut a deal and the Libs also don't deal, they get left holding the parcel - the parcel being minority government without guaranteed stability, a particularly unpleasant fate.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    Aren't both Liz Constable and Janet Wollard closer to the Libs in policitical philosophy?
    Notionally so. But whereas Constable is an ex-Lib who left over a specific issue, Wollard was not originally elected as a Lib but rather as a member of the rather odd liberals for forests group.

    It might show that voters are likely to punish opportunistic snap elections.
    Possibly. But whether voters would regard a double dissolution that could be blamed on Senate obstructionism as the same thing is another question. I am also not convinced that the calling of an early election was in itself the problem. I think the main thing we have just seen in the West is a jaded government getting itself out-campaigned.

    Why are the two related?
    I mentioned at the time of the NT result that NT voters may not have been too happy with the popular Clare Martin who led the party to a record victory being needlessly rolled by opportunist power-grabbers. They therefore voted for the CLP in surprisingly large numbers although the CLP had become such a joke it couldn't even find anyone to run for it in two electorates.

    Now in WA we have seen a joke opposition that has had four leaders in about four years led to the edge of victory by a leader who was going to retire, just because the voters had had a gutful of the government.

  9. #39
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Sartor's axing a bad move!

    The fraction fight will continue. Kicking Sartor out, wasn't a good move in my opinion! Having said that, till March 2011 he will have time to fix a few things! Very much will depend on the general economic situation in Aus. People in NSW are fed up with high cost of living, hospitals state, traffic problems and, let me add, public transport!
    They have the best players in Aus though!
    Cheers and good luck!
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  10. #40
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Will still be several days before the WA result is known as there are still possibilities of Labor winning 28 if the ball bounces their way on non-booth votes (postals etc). There apparently won't be any official updating in that time either so it could be hard to tell what is going on until the end of next week.

  11. #41
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Some of the "independent" seats in WA are now looking more dubious than on counting night. In Alfred Cove the Liberal is closing on Janet Wollard and may defeat her. In Kwinnana Labor has improved its position against Carol Adams although establishing the exact situation is difficult because of incomplete figures.

    In any case counting 26 seats in the bag for Labor and/or Labor independents the ones to watch at present are considered by various commentators to be:

    Riverton, where the Liberals have a trivial lead but one that shows no sign of going away
    Wanneroo where the Libs are ahead and projected to win
    Albany where Labor is ahead but the Libs are closing and the outcome is unclear
    Forrestfield, ditto to above
    Collie-Preston where Labor is ahead and likely to stay there
    Morley which was regarded as a clear Lib gain but Labor is gaining on postals because the disendorsed sitting former ALP member preferenced the Libs on his how-to-vote-card but postal voters didn't know that.

    Assuming Labor wins Collie-Preston they need three more (of the above or one somehow from somewhere else) for 30.

  12. #42
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Former NSW frontbencher Reba Meagher resigned from politics today.

    NSW is now looking at four by-elections.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  13. #43
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind
    Former NSW frontbencher Reba Meagher resigned from politics today.

    NSW is now looking at four by-elections.
    Fortunately for Labor one of the seats up for grabs isn't theirs and two of the others are their safest seats on paper in the state (Iemma won Lakemba with an 84% 2PP!)

  14. #44
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Libs form govt in WA (with Nats). Confirmed.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  15. #45
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Yes and Carpenter resigns as Labor leader, not surprisingly.

    The numbers in the new parliament will apparently be 27-24-4-2 with two in doubt. One of the two will go to either the Libs or Wollard and the other to either Labor or Adams, so they don't do anything to the balance. The new Lib-Nat coalition will need the support of at least Constable and Wollard if she wins in order to govern. Constable will be given a position in Cabinet.

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