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  1. #16
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Labor has won two seats in the NT election unopposed. These are believed to be the first seats won unopposed in an Australian state or territory lower house since the early 1980s, although it is quite common for members of the Tasmanian upper house to be returned unopposed.

  2. #17
    CC Grandmaster Denis_Jessop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Labor has won two seats in the NT election unopposed. These are believed to be the first seats won unopposed in an Australian state or territory lower house since the early 1980s, although it is quite common for members of the Tasmanian upper house to be returned unopposed.
    Many years ago it was quite common for candidates in "blue ribbon" electorates to be elected unopposed in federal elections. That has not happened as far as I can remember for a long time. I think that one reason was the introduction of PR for the Senate causing parties to field a candidate in every electorate to maximise their Senate vote.

    DJ
    ...I don't want to go among mad people Alice remarked, "Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: we're all mad here. I am mad. You're mad." "How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice. "You must be," said the Cat ,"or you wouldn't have come here."

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Was that the Wespoll?
    Yep.
    The general view of my fellow psephologists is that Wespolls are exceedingly unreliable and verging on useless.
    They are not very reliable, but the numbers are nevertheless interesting..
    http://www.pollbludger.com/900

  4. #19
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Denis_Jessop
    Many years ago it was quite common for candidates in "blue ribbon" electorates to be elected unopposed in federal elections. That has not happened as far as I can remember for a long time.
    You are correct; there were 10 unopposed seats won by the Coalition in 1955 and I don't believe there have been any since.

    I think that one reason was the introduction of PR for the Senate causing parties to field a candidate in every electorate to maximise their Senate vote.
    Electoral funding arrangements can also have a lot to do with it.

  5. #20
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Troy Buswell has finally done the inevitable and resigned as WA Opposition Leader. Actually he survived longer than I expected but it was always just a matter of time. I've seen claims that the Wespoll result showing Barnett would be competitive as Opposition Leader has also appeared in internal polling by both parties, but one always needs to treat "internal polling" claims with a grain of salt as they are often selectively released for political advantage. Could be an election in WA within the next 1-2 months.

    In Tassie, our government has had almost as many major dramas since the last election as WA has had Opposition Leaders, and now we've got another one with our Tourism Minister unsuccessfully attempting suicide (contrary to initial rumours, this had nothing to do with Sam Newman making dodgy remarks about her last week.) If she resigns (though it is not yet clear what will happen and all sides of politics are handling the matter sympathetically), there is only one Labor candidate left who can fill her position on a recount, and he got only 620 votes at the last state election (as you would expect from someone whose previous greatest claim to fame was running not even the Hobart student union but the Launceston one). Or if he declined it, Labor could request a by-election.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 06-08-2008 at 11:18 PM.

  6. #21
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    i note a snap election has been called in WA to take advantage of a new opposition leader and to hide behind the publicity smoke screen of the olympics
    .

  7. #22
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by eclectic
    i note a snap election has been called in WA to take advantage of a new opposition leader and to hide behind the publicity smoke screen of the olympics
    September six, sheesh, that is snappy.

    Some strident comments on the strategic aspects here.

    My own view is that many such analysts exist in a narrative of strategic assessment that does not really connect to how the voters view things, and that those calling the early election call a blunder aren't correct. There will be some backlash over the sheer cynicism of it all, but it is sensible risk management on Labor's part and while there is a message to be argued that Labor called it now because they are scared of Colin Barnett, the Liberals will struggle to get people's attention on that message - and the people wouldn't care that much anyway.

  8. #23
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    NT election is very close as the CLP has done very well (certainly better than predicted by Crikey's Charles Richardson who yesterday tipped them to only gain one seat). At the moment 13-11-1 (ALP majority) is the favourite but 12-12-1 (hung parliament) is very possible with Labor ahead by 40 votes in their 13th seat.

    CLP were at double-figure odds to win but they seem to have come pretty close.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 09-08-2008 at 08:42 PM.

  9. #24
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    13-11-1 is now the more or less certain outcome of the NT election. Labor leads by 94 with about 150 to count in the closest remaining seat and the opposition leader has conceded.

  10. #25
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    WA election coming up on Saturday. The Coalition has been closing in the betting and from a start price around $4.50 is now in to about $3.40. There hasn't been that much polling I have seen but what there is suggests the Libs are holding a competitive 2PP vote although nothing for the Government to be hugely alarmed by. I would be interested in any comments on the election from those on the ground over there.

    Also next weekend are federal by-elections for Mayo and Lyne. Lyne is very interesting as it may well elect NSW state independent Rob Oakeshott. Mayo is mildly interesting because a previous Liberal federal candidate for a different seat, Bob Day, quit the Libs and is running for Family First after missing preselection.

  11. #26
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    [QUOTE=Kevin Bonham]WA election coming up on Saturday. The Coalition has been closing in the betting and from a start price around $4.50 is now in to about $3.40. There hasn't been that much polling I have seen but what there is suggests the Libs are holding a competitive 2PP vote although nothing for the Government to be hugely alarmed by. I would be interested in any comments on the election from those on the ground over there.
    QUOTE]

    The Saturday edition of 'The West Australian' has the front page headline 'Labor landslide builds as poll shows Liberal wave has broken'.
    54-46% Westpoll confirms the nightly tracking The West Australian obtained this week. Other front page headlines are: 'Hospital ED risk worst in nation' and 'three teens die, two critical after high-speed smash' - there has been plenty of discussion recently over here re young inexperienced ppl driving powerfull cars.

  12. #27
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    If the new Liberal National Party in QLD can't win, they should be shot. The latest fiasco with state hospital bed shortage reminds me of P.J. O'Rourke's quip:

    "If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it's free."
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  13. #28
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    William Bowe (Pollbludger) has predicted this for WA: ALP 30, Lib 23, Nat 4, Ind 2 in the Lower House and 15 ALP, 14 Lib, 2 Nat, 3 Green, 2 FF for the Upper House.

  14. #29
    CC FIDE Master Southpaw Jim's Avatar
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    Morris Iemma has been rolled by his own caucus, the same day he sacked Costa! I must say, from what I've picked up in the media, this has been coming for a while...
    "the other lefty"

  15. #30
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Yeah, they had to do it as Iemma would certainly have lost the next election; he was looking very shaky as leader when I started this thread in July, and since then it became clearer to me that he was a dead duck. I know nothing about the new guy and in terms of Labor's chances at the next election (if there are any) all that matters is he isn't Iemma.

    The difficult thing for him is that it will be hard to run on a cleaning-up-the-mess kind of platform because Iemma did exactly that last time and voters must be very cynical about it by now.

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