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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Not a good sign for the SA Liberals if they can't even hold their own seat in a by-election.
    Is it that strange? I thought people would be a bit annoyed at Kerin for causing the by-election. Also the fact that the Liberal guy would be new to the voters.

  2. #62
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Interesting result in the SA state by-election for the seat of Frome. This was the seat that was held by former Liberal Premier Rob Kerin. The seat has gone on preferences to an Independent who is a town mayor, who finished third on primaries with about 21% of the vote, but then caught Labor on preferences of minor candidates (mainly the Nats), eliminating the Labor candidate by 20-30 votes, and then beating the Liberal on preferences.
    I wonder if this is an example of a theoretical flaw in preferential voting working out in practice.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Not a good sign for the SA Liberals if they can't even hold their own seat in a by-election.
    True. Not surprising though, since Talkbull is Labor-Lite and doesn't give people any reason to prefer him over the ruling lot.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  3. #63
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    I wonder if this is an example of a theoretical flaw in preferential voting working out in practice.
    Yes, it is; well spotted. Had 50 voters who voted 1 Liberal instead voted 1 Labor 2 Liberal, the independent candidate (Brock) would have been eliminated in third place and the Liberals would have won the seat.

    I've seen a comment to the effect that the scrutineering would have been hilarious because the Liberal scrutineers wanted to save as many Labor votes as possible (and even give their own votes to Labor) to increase the chances of Labor finishing second, which would have allowed the Liberals to win.

    The Labor scrutineers, however, their own candidate being unable to win the seat, wanted Brock to win the by-election and therefore had an interest in having a substantial number of their own candidate's votes invalidated.

    Quote Originally Posted by THE
    Is it that strange? I thought people would be a bit annoyed at Kerin for causing the by-election. Also the fact that the Liberal guy would be new to the voters.
    Commonly in by-elections these factors, while present, are swamped by the desire of voters to use the by-election to protest the incumbent government. It wasn't just the popular independent throwing a spanner in the works either; on a 2PP basis (ignoring Brock) there was a swing to the government of 2% and that in a seat where there had been a very large swing to the government at the previous state poll. Apparently it is the first time an Opposition has failed to hold its own seat in a by-election in SA history although I do not know how many serious opportunities there have been for one to lose one.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 26-01-2009 at 11:14 PM.

  4. #64
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    More obscure goodies from the Frome by-election: Antony Green has determined that but for a particular innovative way the South Australian system deals with certain votes that would be ruled informal in other systems, Brock would not have won.

  5. #65
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    I have not followed Frome by-election at all, but the Liberals claimed victory. Oops.
    Scott

  6. #66
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Looks like Qld will be off to the polls by the end of March. Any number of reasons could be chosen as the reason for the early poll.

  7. #67
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    Looks like Qld will be off to the polls by the end of March. Any number of reasons could be chosen as the reason for the early poll.
    No according to Bligh we won't.

    Bligh says no Qld election yet
    Premier Anna Bligh says she remains committed to a full-term September election in Queensland despite overt preparations for the poll continuing on Sunday.

    Ms Bligh launched a website funded by the Labor Party called Anna4Qld, announced that two long-serving senior parliamentarians would not stand at the next poll, and laughed off mounting rumours that she could call an election as early as Tuesday.

    "Other people can speculate about elections," Ms Bligh said.

    "I'm not going to speculate about it. I've made my position clear. Nothing's changed."

  8. #68
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Same kind of speculation here where the incumbent Premier, David Bartlett, is picking up in the polls (Tassie opinion polls are very unreliable; if they say Labor's +5 over the Libs it's probably a lot more than that) and is due to go to an election by March 2010. Same response to it as well.

  9. #69
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boris
    No according to Bligh we won't.

    Bligh says no Qld election yet
    Premier Anna Bligh says she remains committed to a full-term September election in Queensland despite overt preparations for the poll continuing on Sunday.

    Ms Bligh launched a website funded by the Labor Party called Anna4Qld, announced that two long-serving senior parliamentarians would not stand at the next poll, and laughed off mounting rumours that she could call an election as early as Tuesday.

    "Other people can speculate about elections," Ms Bligh said.

    "I'm not going to speculate about it. I've made my position clear. Nothing's changed."
    Now come on Boris, I expected more from you and better than this. Don't tell me you are this gullible and are now believing politicians when they tell you that they are not going to call an election

    We were set to go to the polls a few weeks ago, until Anna realised that by doing that that some of her Labor mates would miss out on their pensions for life under the eight year rule (if they did not serve eight years in parliament, they dont qualify for pensions for life), so she delayed the election till after they all qualified.

    Of course a premier would only do this if she/he thought they were going to lose those seats. Not much confidence in those Labor members hey

  10. #70
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Yeah much better to believe political commentators who speculate that she will call it early. They have to fill their columns with something.

  11. #71
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boris
    Yeah much better to believe political commentators who speculate that she will call it early. They have to fill their columns with something.
    I am not going on the say so of the political commentators per se, but on what I see from multiple sources and from non political commentators as well.

    Probably one of the biggest clues about an upcoming election is that the AEC called for people to apply for scrutineer positions in Qld last December. So with training provided etc that would lay the timetable for a March or so election. No point training up a heap of people if the election is going to be in September.

    I think the chances of the Qld Labor Government running to September are zero. Boris, if you believe Anna Bligh will run till September, care to put a small wager on it?

  12. #72
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    I am not going on the say so of the political commentators per se, but on what I see from multiple sources and from non political commentators as well.
    Sources such as ...?

    Probably one of the biggest clues about an upcoming election is that the AEC called for people to apply for scrutineer positions in Qld last December. So with training provided etc that would lay the timetable for a March or so election. No point training up a heap of people if the election is going to be in September.
    Cool, no doubt you can find some articles from December that state the election will be held in March for that reason.

    I think the chances of the Qld Labor Government running to September are zero. Boris, if you believe Anna Bligh will run till September, care to put a small wager on it?
    I don't recall saying that. Out of interest, what would be your terms?

  13. #73
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Having a look at the current wrap at Poll Bludger it's looking like this one's more than idle speculation and there may well be action within the next few weeks.

    Though for what it's worth:

    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    Probably one of the biggest clues about an upcoming election is that the AEC called for people to apply for scrutineer positions in Qld last December. So with training provided etc that would lay the timetable for a March or so election. No point training up a heap of people if the election is going to be in September.
    Queensland elections are run by this mob, not the AEC.

    But even if it was the ECQ who made that call, they may have just been learning from other state electoral commissions that have been caught off guard by early elections and performed incompetently as a result.

  14. #74
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    "Labor’s retiring Queensland MPs have made three seats available for new passengers on the Anna Bligh express ride to death or glory."


  15. #75
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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