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  1. #1
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Australian state politics and elections thread

    Thought I'd create a thread for discussion of Australian state politics (any state) as often that kind of discussion crops up on other threads ('The 3', 'Wall to Wall Labor' etc) where it is sometimes not entirely relevant.

    A brief synopsis of the current state of electoral battle in each state.

    Western Australia

    Election due next year but Labor widely tipped to go to the polls later this year. Alan Carpenter has high approval ratings and his party enjoys a 2PP lead between 53-47 and 56-44 depending on poll over an opposition that is a hopeless infighting rabble led by a supposedly reformed former chair-sniffing sleazebag.

    South Australia

    Election due 20 March 2010. Mike Rann, who is the only remaining Labor premier to have won an election from Opposition (!) enjoys similarly high approval ratings to Carpenter and his party is also in a strong position.

    Victoria

    Election due 2010. Labor have a recycled leader (John Brumby was replaced by Steve Bracks before Bracks became Premier) but the Libs' Ted Bailleu is widely seen as a toff and not popular. Brumby is currently travelling strongly with large 2PP leads.

    Tasmania

    Election due 2010. Unpopular former premier Paul Lennon, whose government had endured a series of probity scandals, recently left the building and was replaced by youngish, internet-savvy David Bartlett. With the state Liberals and Greens both also having young and modern leaders many people expect a hung parliament at the next state election. Most of them also expected it in 2006, and were wrong.

    New South Wales

    Election due 2011. New premier Morris Iemma was able to win unexpectedly strongly at the helm of a jaded government in 2007 but his government is currently polling badly (behind on 2PP) and some believe the sharks to be circling concerning his position. This is the one state where the Liberals are given really good chances of winning by betting markets, which assess the race as close to even.

    Queensland

    Election due 2010. Following the resignation of Peter Beattie, Anna Bligh has taken over and may now become the first woman re-elected as Premier of an Australian State (although women have been re-elected as leaders of both Territories). The Coalition is currently trying to work its way through a messy merger proposal.

    and just for completion

    Northern Territory

    Election due 2009. I struggle to remember the guy's name, but Paul Henderson became Chief Minister last November, after Clare Martin resigned (reputedly having lost the support of her party over her handling of Howard's NT interventions.) NT politics is characterised by extremely small electorate sizes making it more like local council voting than state politics.

    ACT

    Election due 18 Oct 2008. Like Tasmania, the ACT uses the Hare-Clark system. Chief Minister Jon Stanhope is defending the only majority government in the ACT's history of so-called self-government.

    Concerning NSW, I would be interested in any comments on the following from those living in that state:

    * Is Iemma doomed?
    * Who would replace him?
    * What would you think of a replacement's chances of leading Labor to another election win?

  2. #2
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Queensland

    Election due 2010. Following the resignation of Peter Beattie, Anna Bligh has taken over and may now become the first woman re-elected as Premier of an Australian State (although women have been re-elected as leaders of both Territories). The Coalition is currently trying to work its way through a messy merger proposal.
    Regarding the merger idea that is currently doing the rounds.

    Back a few years ago, the Qld Government passed a law not to increase the size of parliament. This means Qld can only have 89 electorates. With the rapidly increasing population in the south east, this has caused a boundary re-distribution which has favoured the Liberal Party over the Nats and a couple of Nat seats have been wiped from the map.

    One of the biggest problems for any merger proposal is that for the Libs/Nats to gain government, it is highly likely that the Libs will win more seats than the Nats, simply due to demographics (more seats in the south east, less seats in the country).

    But as it stands, the Nats hold quite a few more seats and so they have the majority votes.

    Just before campaigning started at the last election, the Libs decided to get rid of Bob Quinn (long time Lib party leader) and installed Bruce Flegg. On the first day of campaigning, Bruce Flegg was asked who would be leader of the Coalition if they gained government.

    He fumbled his answer so many times and this became a running issue for the whole campaign. I thought the simple answer was, who ever wins the most seats.

    Currently one of the main issues for the Coalition is who will be president of the merged party. I think it is an issue for some of the same reasons listed above. The libs know that to gain government, they will win more seats than the nats, but currently do not have the voting numbers to push it through.

    As for the Labor Gov, they continue to be a disgrace and Ms Bligh must go to bed each night thankful for such a hopeless opposition.

  3. #3
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Snap election called early in NT. Territorians get to have fun doing doodles on 9 August. Extremely brief campaign.

    Current parliament up there is 19 ALP, 4 CLP, two independents, although two ALP seats are notionally CLP following redistribution.

    It's generally expected (given their massive buffer) that Labor will lose seats but not government. Reading the comments from those who know better on Poll Bludger, it looks like the opposition could gain 3-5 seats.

    It is not known whether either party intends to attempt to affiliate with the ACF if elected.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 22-07-2008 at 10:54 PM.

  4. #4
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    Currently one of the main issues for the Coalition is who will be president of the merged party. I think it is an issue for some of the same reasons listed above. The libs know that to gain government, they will win more seats than the nats, but currently do not have the voting numbers to push it through.
    Papers are now reporting that the merger proposal is in tatters. Would someone like my lotto number predictions

    As for the Labor Gov, they continue to be a disgrace and Ms Bligh must go to bed each night thankful for such a hopeless opposition.
    I think Ms Bligh must have found a genie bottle somewhere and was given one wish and it is being granted.

  5. #5
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Snap election called early in NT. Territorians get to have fun doing doodles on 9 August. Extremely brief campaign.

    Current parliament up there is 19 ALP, 4 CLP, two independents, although two ALP seats are notionally CLP following redistribution.

    It's generally expected (given their massive buffer) that Labor will lose seats but not government. Reading the comments from those who know better on Poll Bludger, it looks like the opposition could gain 3-5 seats.

    It is not known whether either party intends to attempt to affiliate with the ACF if elected.
    Have read quite a bit that the matter of the NT intervention is not being mentioned by either side in the election.

    A shame, but not surprising as Labor does not want to talk about it as they would then have to defend their record over the years on aboriginal health and the CLP probably think there are no seats to be won on the issue.

    Apparently more attention is being devoted to sports stadiums in Darwin.

  6. #6
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    Papers are now reporting that the merger proposal is in tatters. Would someone like my lotto number predictions

    I think Ms Bligh must have found a genie bottle somewhere and was given one wish and it is being granted.
    But now the merger has been achieved. Finally the QLD Labor Government has an incentive to get its act together.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

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    CC Grandmaster Denis_Jessop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    ACT

    Election due 18 Oct 2008. Like Tasmania, the ACT uses the Hare-Clark system. Chief Minister Jon Stanhope is defending the only majority government in the ACT's history of so-called self-government.
    The ACT situation is that the Stanhope Government is incompetent but the Liberal opposition is even more incompetent. As well, there are virtually no useful independents likely to stand except the Mayor of Queanbeyan. To make things worse the ACT Public Service is barely competent where it matters and so essential services including water conservation have been neglected for the last 25 years or so. So it's a bleak outlook whoever wins.

    DJ
    ...I don't want to go among mad people Alice remarked, "Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: we're all mad here. I am mad. You're mad." "How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice. "You must be," said the Cat ,"or you wouldn't have come here."

  8. #8
    Account Permanently Banned Axiom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Denis_Jessop
    The ACT situation is that the Stanhope Government is incompetent but the Liberal opposition is even more incompetent. As well, there are virtually no useful independents likely to stand except the Mayor of Queanbeyan. To make things worse the ACT Public Service is barely competent where it matters and so essential services including water conservation have been neglected for the last 25 years or so. So it's a bleak outlook whoever wins.

    DJ
    what was that quote about being ruled by your inferiors ?

  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Denis_Jessop
    The ACT situation is that the Stanhope Government is incompetent but the Liberal opposition is even more incompetent.
    DJ
    I am afraid this problem is not unique to ACT. As i live in Victoria, it appears to be painfully familiar...
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  10. #10
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Denis_Jessop
    The ACT situation is that the Stanhope Government is incompetent but the Liberal opposition is even more incompetent.
    I'll take the generalisation even further:
    Replace "The ACT" with "modern politics" and remove "Stanhope" and "Liberal"
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  11. #11
    CC Grandmaster arosar's Avatar
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    ALP lambasted: http://tinyurl.com/5pw3qv

    AR

  12. #12
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Denis_Jessop
    So it's a bleak outlook whoever wins.
    This actually seems to be an increasing problem in Australian state politics today - elections where parties battle to be seen as the least mediocre/jaded/corrupt/infighting/harebrained etc and you don't actually need to be all that good to win.

  13. #13
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
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    In another thread, someone (KB?) mentioned that certain leaders would have a hard time being elected as leader for the first time, but if they are handed over the leadership they can be re-elected without too much trouble. I wonder if Anna Bligh fits into this category?
    meep meep

  14. #14
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    There was an amusing poll this week showing that the preferred premier in WA among Liberal and National voters is... Alan Carpenter. And not by a narrow margin.

    The same poll showed the Coalition with a slight lead in 2PP vote. When Colin Barnett is substituted for Troy Buswell, that turned into a Coalition landslide. I don't think the Liberal party room can continue to ignore Troy Buswell's unpopularity, especially with an early election looming.

  15. #15
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    There was an amusing poll this week showing that the preferred premier in WA among Liberal and National voters is... Alan Carpenter. And not by a narrow margin.
    Was that the Wespoll?

    The general view of my fellow psephologists is that Wespolls are exceedingly unreliable and verging on useless.

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