Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 145

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    CC Grandmaster
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    5,667

    Oil price: temporary shock, or permanent shift?



    Note that this graph is translated into 2007 dollars, accounting for inflation. It also does not include the last several months of price increases - the world price is now in excess of $130 a barrel.

    So will we see a repeat of the '70s shock, with prices coming back down to the long term average? That seems pretty unlikely, but some are at least predicting prices to drop back to around the $100 level by the end of 2008. Others, however are predicting prices to move through $200 and keep going. Who is right?

  2. #2
    CC International Master
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Wynyard,Tas
    Posts
    2,175
    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    Note that this graph is translated into 2007 dollars, accounting for inflation. It also does not include the last several months of price increases - the world price is now in excess of $130 a barrel.

    So will we see a repeat of the '70s shock, with prices coming back down to the long term average? That seems pretty unlikely, but some are at least predicting prices to drop back to around the $100 level by the end of 2008. Others, however are predicting prices to move through $200 and keep going. Who is right?
    I wouldn't really know but instinctively I'd say keep going or at best not fall at least for a while. Considering that the reaction seems to be a lot of "The guvm'nt should do something for us" and not a lot of looking for ways to lower consumption, and assuming that this is at least as much the case elsewhere, there's no reason to think demand would fall. And with the Middle East likely to be at least as unsettled as it currently is for a while there's no reason to think supply would increase.

  3. #3
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    19,370
    There will be a crisis if the government does the same thing that resulted in the 1970s shortages: price controls.

    It could be relieved immediately if lefties in the US Congress would allow drilling of their own oil in the bleak Alaskan wilderness and offshore, and allow more refineries and nuclear power stations to be built.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  4. #4
    CC Grandmaster Spiny Norman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    4,437
    If I didn't know better, based on that graph, I would suggest its a deliberate Arab nation response to the USA's response to 9/11.
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  5. #5
    CC Grandmaster
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    5,667
    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    There will be a crisis if the government does the same thing that resulted in the 1970s shortages: price controls.
    Price controls did not cause the 1970's shortages but rather exacerbated them.

  6. #6
    CC Grandmaster
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    5,667
    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    It could be relieved immediately if lefties in the US Congress would allow drilling of their own oil in the bleak Alaskan wilderness and offshore, and allow more refineries and nuclear power stations to be built.
    Such relief would be pretty temporary. The 1998 USGS estimated total reserves in the Alaskan reserves at no more than 12 billion barrels (and probably closer to 8 billion). This equates to just 18 months of US consumption, or about 4 months of world consumption. It would undoubtedly be good for the US economy, but it is hardly likely to make any dent in the world price.

  7. #7
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    19,370
    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    Such relief would be pretty temporary. The 1998 USGS estimated total reserves in the Alaskan reserves at no more than 12 billion barrels (and probably closer to 8 billion). This equates to just 18 months of US consumption, or about 4 months of world consumption. It would undoubtedly be good for the US economy, but it is hardly likely to make any dent in the world price.
    It would be better than what they do now! And we have been pleasantly surprised in the past about availability of oil. This contrasts with doom mongers for the last century who have been predicting imminent running out by the next decade or two.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  8. #8
    CC Grandmaster
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    5,531
    One of the research houses upgraded their estimate of the oil price (expecting further price increase).
    For private coaching (IM, four times VIC champion) call or SMS 0417519733
    Computer tells you what to play. Good coach explains why.

  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    5,531
    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    Note that this graph is translated into 2007 dollars, accounting for inflation. It also does not include the last several months of price increases - the world price is now in excess of $130 a barrel.
    It would be interesting to see the graph against other currencies and/or gold. The 6-7 times rise against USD would only( ) be 3-4 times rise against AUS.
    For private coaching (IM, four times VIC champion) call or SMS 0417519733
    Computer tells you what to play. Good coach explains why.

  10. #10
    CC Grandmaster arosar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    5,046
    Price fell back to about $128 overnight.

    AR

  11. #11
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    on the skin of the pale blue dot
    Posts
    12,336
    Quote Originally Posted by Igor_Goldenberg
    It would be interesting to see the graph against other currencies and/or gold. The 6-7 times rise against USD would only( ) be 3-4 times rise against AUS.
    That is what I was wondering also. The plummeting USD makes that graph look worse than what it really is.
    meep meep

  12. #12
    CC Grandmaster
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    5,667
    Quote Originally Posted by Igor_Goldenberg
    It would be interesting to see the graph against other currencies and/or gold. The 6-7 times rise against USD would only( ) be 3-4 times rise against AUS.
    The AUS dollar hasn't doubled against the greenback in 6 years, but I take your broad point. It also drives home the fact that petrol prices will get a lot worse in Australia if the AUD falls back against the USD.

  13. #13
    CC International Master
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    Bristol
    Posts
    1,977
    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    The AUS dollar hasn't doubled against the greenback in 6 years, but I take your broad point. It also drives home the fact that petrol prices will get a lot worse in Australia if the AUD falls back against the USD.
    It has in the last 7 years though!

  14. #14
    Account Permanently Banned Axiom's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    4,383

    Axiom Predicts

    PETROL WILL BE $2/L within 18mths .
    mark these words.

    (and likely $4/L within 3yrs.)

    All part of The Green Shirt agenda of kicking us out of cars onto PT.


    Soon we could all have our carbon footprints stamped on our foreheads !
    Last edited by Axiom; 28-05-2008 at 07:39 PM.

  15. #15
    CC Grandmaster
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    5,667
    Quote Originally Posted by Axiom
    PETROL WILL BE $2/L within 18mths .
    mark these words.
    18 months? More like 6 months at the current rate..

    (and likely $4/L within 3yrs.)

    All part of The Green Shirt agenda of kicking us out of cars onto PT.
    Note that the current petrol price has nothing at all to do with Green agendas.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •