View Poll Results: When will the Liberals replace Nelson?

Voters
13. You may not vote on this poll
  • By mid this year

    0 0%
  • By end of year

    6 46.15%
  • By end of next year

    6 46.15%
  • Just before next election

    1 7.69%
  • After losing next election

    0 0%
  • Sometime well after that

    0 0%
  • They won't, he'll be the next Prime Minister

    0 0%
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  1. #1
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Dr 12%: how long will Nelson last?

    Nelson has recorded a 9% preferred PM rating in not just one but two opinion polls in recent weeks - Newspoll (which had Rudd at 70) and Morgan (which had Rudd at 77).

    His approval ratings actually aren't all that bad, as leader of the opposition. But clearly almost nobody believes he's make a good PM.

    Is he doomed or can he somehow turn it around?

    NB The poll contains a joke option.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 23-02-2008 at 01:06 AM.

  2. #2
    Account Permanently Banned Axiom's Avatar
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    Isnt It ?

    I Want The Option "Who should Really Care, Its Just Part Of The Rambling Cascading Punch And Judy Tag Team Circus Puppet Show Fake Democracy False Paradigm "

  3. #3
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Axiom
    I Want The Option "who should Really Care, Its Just Part Of The Rambling Cascading Punch And Judy Tag Team Circus Puppet Show Fake Democracy False Paradigm "
    I don't, and it's my poll, so run along now and stop threadjacking.

  4. #4
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    I dont think anyone wants the position for at least the next 18 months

  5. #5
    Account Permanently Banned Axiom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    I don't, and it's my poll, so run along now and stop threadjacking.
    oh go on , couldnt you just add it to the poll to bridge the full spectrum.
    you do want a more scientifically credible poll dont you ?

  6. #6
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    I think it's very early. I want to wait until gloss 'from the night before' has started to fade and the morning light has a greater effect (in respect to Rudd). Rudd's fortunes have everything to do with Nelson's.

    I'm still not convinced the love affair with the Labor party (that hasn't actually promised or done anything) will last for the three life-times that some have suggested. Regular readers may recall that the Labor party won't be turfed on grounds of dislike (as is the case with conservatives) - they will be turfed when the electorate ("the 3") determines they are incompetent. I'm starting to see the seeds of that already, but I might be biased.

    There must be a metric somewhere relating to the meteoric rise being proportional to the meteoric downfall (both speed and depth).

    I think the second biggest factor concerning the length of Nelson's tenure has a lot to do with challenges based more on others' ego and aspiration than party benefit.

    So. The poll. Harder to pick than a broken nose. I know that's not the point, so I pick end of next year.
    Last edited by Basil; 23-02-2008 at 10:23 AM.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  7. #7
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Nelson has recorded a 9% preferred PM rating in not just one but two opinion polls in recent weeks - Newspoll (which had Rudd at 70) and Morgan (which had Rudd at 77).

    His approval ratings actually aren't all that bad, as leader of the opposition. But clearly almost nobody believes he's make a good PM.

    Is he doomed or can he somehow turn it around?

    NB The poll contains a joke option.
    The Coalition in defeat seem to think that being Labor-Lite will impress the voters. This never works; they are just held in contempt by everyone; leftists voters will still prefer the real thing to the Lite model, conservatives will just be disgusted and withdraw support.
    “The history of the 20th century is full of examples of countries that set out to redistribute wealth and ended up redistributing poverty.”
    “There’s no point blaming the tragedies of socialism on the flaws or corruption of particular leaders. Any system which allows some people to exercise unbridled power over others is an open invitation to abuse, whether that system is called slavery or socialism or something else.”—Thomas Sowell

  8. #8
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    conservatives will just be disgusted and withdraw support.
    But in Australia we have compulsory voting. You don't really think the conservatives are going to start voting Labor do you?

  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    The Coalition in defeat seem to think that being Labor-Lite will impress the voters. This never works; they are just held in contempt by everyone; leftists voters will still prefer the real thing to the Lite model, conservatives will just be disgusted and withdraw support.
    Understood and broadly agree with the concept. Not sure it applies here. The Labor-liteness is only applying (as far as I can see (at this early stage)) to a few known litmus issues that were tested at the election. I'd be dropping those, too {the planks have spoken - and you know what they say about arguing with fools!}

    As indicated earlier, I'm really not so sure that all the smart money analysis, all the foreboding as to the future of the Liberal party, and all the oh-so-clear reasons for electoral defeat are at play and certainly not to the degree that is widely touted - even within the party. Remember, if the (any) party is oblivious enough to self-destruct, it is possible to be oblivious enough after-the-fact. After all, these people are only politicians and commentators

    Let's give it a little while yet before we decide the Libs are Labor-lite. I suspect not.
    Last edited by Basil; 23-02-2008 at 02:12 PM.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  10. #10
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Axiom
    you do want a more scientifically credible poll dont you ?
    I want a poll on the issue of how long he will last, not the issue of whether or not Axiom is disappointed by not having had an irrelevant option that appeases his pet rants included in the poll.

  11. #11
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    But in Australia we have compulsory voting. You don't really think the conservatives are going to start voting Labor do you?
    As was pointed out, the phrase "compulsory voting" is shorthand description of the sytem of making people registering on polling day.

    I think the Labor-Lite tendency explained the Coalition's poor showing in Vic and NSW. In countries without compulsory voting, the "echo not a choice" mentality has been even more disastrous. The British Conservatives failed to stand for anything different from Blair's Labor, the Rockefeller Republicans were a minority in Congress for decades, and their current tendency to be as big-spending as the Dems was a major factor of their loss of the Senate and House.
    “The history of the 20th century is full of examples of countries that set out to redistribute wealth and ended up redistributing poverty.”
    “There’s no point blaming the tragedies of socialism on the flaws or corruption of particular leaders. Any system which allows some people to exercise unbridled power over others is an open invitation to abuse, whether that system is called slavery or socialism or something else.”—Thomas Sowell

  12. #12
    Account Permanently Banned Axiom's Avatar
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    widen the lens

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    I want a poll on the issue of how long he will last, not the issue of whether or not Axiom is disappointed by not having had an irrelevant option that appeases his pet rants included in the poll.
    excuse the interruption to your small picture poll
    Last edited by Axiom; 23-02-2008 at 09:44 PM.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    I think the Labor-Lite tendency explained the Coalition's poor showing in Vic and NSW.
    So were conservatives voting Labor?

  14. #14
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    So were conservatives voting Labor?
    Or maybe a third party ... But more importantly conservative volunteers for all the grass roots campaigning to garner Liberal votes may have been inn short supply because of the betrayal by the Lib leaders.
    “The history of the 20th century is full of examples of countries that set out to redistribute wealth and ended up redistributing poverty.”
    “There’s no point blaming the tragedies of socialism on the flaws or corruption of particular leaders. Any system which allows some people to exercise unbridled power over others is an open invitation to abuse, whether that system is called slavery or socialism or something else.”—Thomas Sowell

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    Or maybe a third party ... But more importantly conservative volunteers for all the grass roots campaigning to garner Liberal votes may have been inn short supply because of the betrayal by the Lib leaders.
    I think the truth is that the electoral are not liberal/labor like 50 years ago, but rather a swinging voter. I doubt the number of electoral voters would total 20% total, I'd say more likely under 10%.

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