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Thread: The '3'

  1. #256
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Labor voters are split between Rudd and Gillard as to better PM! And that's among the Labor voters who are keeping the faith.
    I heard some commentary positing that these high preferred leader results for Rudd and Turnbull were mischievous indications from pollees, viz Labor voters 'preferring' Turnbull and Liberal voters 'preferring' Rudd.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  2. #257
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Underpants
    I heard some commentary positing that these high preferred leader results for Rudd and Turnbull were mischievous indications from pollees, viz Labor voters 'preferring' Turnbull and Liberal voters 'preferring' Rudd.
    Well, deliberate silly stuff is probably some small part of it although it would also be expected that Labor voters would genuinely prefer Turnbull to Abbott and Lib voters (at least of the conservative variety) might genuinely prefer Rudd to Gillard.

    But the actual breakdown here: http://www.theage.com.au/national/la...417-1djte.html really shows that Labor supporters are split between Rudd and Gillard now.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 20-04-2011 at 10:55 AM.

  3. #258
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Andrew Bolt on Labor's troubles: they have long forgotten the workers:



    Before that we heard the Australian Workers Union boss, Paul Howes, warn Gillard, whom he’d helped to install, that he’d fight her carbon dioxide tax “if one job is gone” — an impossible test.

    More ominous for Labor was the reason he gave for this threat. He said he’d gone to six mass meetings of his members in 10 days and “I now appreciate just how upset workers are about the carbon tax”.

    Here is a union leader being told by his members that Labor is madly out of touch, pushing policies of the Left that he’d better damn well block.



    But it’s also clear that Labor is far too preoccupied with the moralising causes of the urban Left that have little relevance to many workers and the poor — other than as a threat.

    Take global warming, which involves Labor making the poor pay more in power bills to pamper the conscience of people much richer, or has it sacrificing blue-collar jobs on green shrines, just to make a purely symbolic gesture.

    Or consider multiculturalism and rampant immigration, which mean cramming more newcomers into poor suburbs where they’ll struggle to fit in, and then damning the ugly consequences as Australian “racism”.

    This fault line marks where the battle for Labor’s future will be fought, when electoral disaster has finally struck.

    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  4. #259
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Tracking shows it's been the minus four on average for the last month and a half.

    http://yfrog.com/h21jpsp

    Today there was a Morgan which came out to 42:58 but that was a small sample and will be dismissed as an outlier - unless it proves to be prophetic.

  5. #260
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    What is now? The 9 or something like that on 2PP? That's quite the ahem reversal (at least pro tem).

  6. #261
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Underpants
    What is now? The 9 or something like that on 2PP? That's quite the ahem reversal (at least pro tem).
    It's easy to get excited this far out of an election. With the Thomson affair hurting the govt at the moment it might get worse. But all that will could well be ancient history by the time the election rolls around.

    I think the government is no better than even-money at retaining power at the next election and may even be worse than that if they can't get themselves organised and start scoring runs off Abbott, Bishop and the rest of the clergy.

    E.G. when Tony is asked for a comment on the budget and all he has is some anti-Thomson boilerplate rhetoric he sounds like he's living in a policy free zone (and I thought the libs were supposed to the the fiscally responsible ones). However no one in govt seems able to get that message out.

    Let's see how the next 12 months pan out.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  7. #262
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Underpants
    What is now? The 9 or something like that on 2PP? That's quite the ahem reversal (at least pro tem).
    Finished the year as 'The 4', according to Newspoll, anyway.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  8. #263
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Underpants
    Finished the year as 'The 4', according to Newspoll, anyway.
    About 1 point of that was noise in my view, it should have been a 53 and the 51 last fortnight should have been a 52. Then again Newspoll has been about half a point too kind to Labor on average for a while so maybe it's the 3.5. 53-54 is about where the multi-poll aggregators have it, depending on their methods.

  9. #264
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Well, we found 'The 3'. Looks like we've found another 3 into the bargain!
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  10. #265
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    3 more years... 3 more years...
    3 x 3
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  11. #266
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    The '3' pulled their best stunt yet at this election - making themselves invisible to pollsters!

    The average error on polls on the 2PP looks likely to be about 3 points (48.6 vs currently 51.6, probably about 51.8 by the time all divisions are included.)

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