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Thread: The '3'

  1. #1
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    The '3'

    If a week is a long time in politics, then three years must be quite a long time indeed.

    A net three people in a hundred switched allegiances on Saturday. The minor parties didn't rate.

    ATM there is much talk of Rudd ruling for a life-time - and why not - he may well do so.

    However, if two of the three people who switched allegiances decide in that very long long three years that Kevin, Wayne, Julia and Peter actually do have no idea beyond computers and signing Kyoto, then they just might bite back.

    Remember, we're not talking about we 'rusted on' voters, we're talking about the true swingers. So we can shout at each other as much we want, but 'the three' will ultimately decide.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    A net three people in a hundred switched allegiances on Saturday.
    One in a hundred made the big switch from informal to formal (at least in all the electorates I checked up on).

    Just checked, it is nation wide (unless postal etc have some weird proportion of the informals or something) http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirs...-13745-NAT.htm
    Last edited by Aaron Guthrie; 26-11-2007 at 12:45 PM.

  3. #3
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    Remember, we're not talking about we 'rusted on' voters, we're talking about the true swingers. So we can shout at each other as much we want, but 'the three' will ultimately decide.
    The purpose in our shouting at each other is the hope that some of the three are listening in and will change their minds the correct way.
    “The history of the 20th century is full of examples of countries that set out to redistribute wealth and ended up redistributing poverty.”
    “There’s no point blaming the tragedies of socialism on the flaws or corruption of particular leaders. Any system which allows some people to exercise unbridled power over others is an open invitation to abuse, whether that system is called slavery or socialism or something else.”—Thomas Sowell

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    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    If a week is a long time in politics, then three years must be quite a long time indeed.

    A net three people in a hundred switched allegiances on Saturday. The minor parties didn't rate.

    ATM there is much talk of Rudd ruling for a life-time - and why not - he may
    Historically it is highly unlikely verging on impossible that a government will be turfed out after one term - the "give 'em a fair go" ethos prevails

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    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Murray
    Historically it is highly unlikely verging on impossible that a government will be turfed out after one term — the "give 'em a fair go" ethos prevails
    Depends on what they try to do. If they try to impose any bill of rights crap, Aussies might turf them out. And if there are strikes and much more unemployment, the fickle electorate might realise that they really never had it as good as under Howard/Costello.
    “The history of the 20th century is full of examples of countries that set out to redistribute wealth and ended up redistributing poverty.”
    “There’s no point blaming the tragedies of socialism on the flaws or corruption of particular leaders. Any system which allows some people to exercise unbridled power over others is an open invitation to abuse, whether that system is called slavery or socialism or something else.”—Thomas Sowell

  6. #6
    CC International Master ElevatorEscapee's Avatar
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    Talking Jono/Howard

    I would just like to say that it is fitting that the coalition of posters "Jono" & "Howard" are still supportive of the Liberal Party.
    "On my chess set, all the pawns are Hamburglers" ~ Homer Simpson.

  7. #7
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    Depends on what they try to do. If they try to impose any bill of rights crap, Aussies might turf them out. And if there are strikes and much more unemployment, the fickle electorate might realise that they really never had it as good as under Howard/Costello.
    Give it up, Jono - nobody listens to whingers. The majority of voters prefer the new leadership

  8. #8
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    A net three people in a hundred switched allegiances on Saturday. The minor parties didn't rate.
    Why three? The 2PP swing was double that, so shouldn't it be six?

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    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    100 people. 50 vote one way, 50 the other.
    3 people change their mind (assuming all the same way).
    Result = 47 v 53.
    6 point split.

    I will have to go and check that that is what was actually meant by the commentators when they say 'swing'. Nevertheless, if 3 people in 100 change their mind next election, we are back to parity.
    Last edited by Basil; 26-11-2007 at 10:15 PM.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  10. #10
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    I believe swing is measured from what the polls said last time, not deviation from 50%.
    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  11. #11
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boris
    I believe swing is measured from what the polls said last time, not deviation from 50%.
    Yes. Of course. Crystal now I see it written down. Thanks. Without wanting to confuse though, this thread still concerns 'the three'!
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  12. #12
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Yes, if 3/100 change their minds next time (and none go the other way) then it's back to 50-50. But despite that, 6/100 changed their minds on Saturday. It's as if 6% were swinging voters and that 6% all went one way last time and all went the other this time (though that's not actually what happened, of course.)

  13. #13
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ElevatorEscapee
    I would just like to say that it is fitting that the coalition of posters "Jono" & "Howard" are still supportive of the Liberal Party.
    What about the poster Abbott who hates Abbott?
    “The history of the 20th century is full of examples of countries that set out to redistribute wealth and ended up redistributing poverty.”
    “There’s no point blaming the tragedies of socialism on the flaws or corruption of particular leaders. Any system which allows some people to exercise unbridled power over others is an open invitation to abuse, whether that system is called slavery or socialism or something else.”—Thomas Sowell

  14. #14
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Murray
    Give it up, Jono — nobody listens to whingers.
    They did evidently: all the union whinging about work choices etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Murray
    The majority of voters prefer the new leadership
    Give the man a medal.
    “The history of the 20th century is full of examples of countries that set out to redistribute wealth and ended up redistributing poverty.”
    “There’s no point blaming the tragedies of socialism on the flaws or corruption of particular leaders. Any system which allows some people to exercise unbridled power over others is an open invitation to abuse, whether that system is called slavery or socialism or something else.”—Thomas Sowell

  15. #15
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    So - "the 3". I wonder if there are any ruminations as to their wanting a refund on their KRudd vote. There is no doubt that some of the 3 were motivated by:

    -- Give a new bloke a chance (11 years is simply unhealthy)
    -- A man to govern "for all Australians"
    -- John Howard's broken core-promises (belly-ached about here and in water-cooler land ad nauseam)

    and yet, less than 100 days into the Rudd-fest, we have

    1. An apology not representative and consultative of "all Australians"
    2. Today's announcement that the government plans to cut 2,000 Centrelink jobs. The policy slammed by unions in its entirety and specifically by Public Sector Union as a broken pre-election promise

    I forget who Jono quoted. "If you're not voting left by age 20, you haven't got a heart. If you're not voting right by 40, you haven't got a brain."
    Last edited by Basil; 23-02-2008 at 02:26 PM.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

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