View Poll Results: Who will win? (This poll asks who will win, not who do you want to win)

Voters
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  • Coalition by >30 seats

    0 0%
  • Coalition by 16-30 seats

    0 0%
  • Coalition by 15 or less seats

    5 21.74%
  • Neither party acheives majority

    2 8.70%
  • Labor by 15 or less seats

    8 34.78%
  • Labor by 16-30 seats

    7 30.43%
  • Labor by >30 seats

    1 4.35%
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  1. #1
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Federal Election 2007 (Labor Wins)

    Election has been called for Nov 24th.

    150 House of Reps seats up for grabs.

    This thread is for discussion of the likely result.

  2. #2
    CC resident nutcase Trent Parker's Avatar
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    flip flop flip flop

    Picton used to be a part of the seat of macarthur and then for a while Picton was the Northern section of Hume and as of this election Picton is back in Macarthur.

    I Just Hope Pat Farmer will do better for Picton than the one eyed politician - Alby Shultz.

    I'm normally a Libs voter but I'm currently a bit of a swing voter....

    Its interesting.... whoever wins Macarthur normally wins office. its been that way since the seats creation 50+? years ago.
    GO THE DRAGONS!
    GO Western Sydney Wanderers!
    Quote Originally Posted by Adamski's signature
    God exists. Short and to the point.
    This is the reason I do not wade into religion threads.

  3. #3
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    The votes on this forum (few as they are) on this poll are quite evenly spread. On my other forum Labor by <15 has a massive majority.

  4. #4
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
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    Did you make this a private poll for a certain reason?

  5. #5
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boris
    Did you make this a private poll for a certain reason?
    Yes. My own incompetence.

    Actually, on checking I found that the poll last time had also been a private poll so I decided to leave it as such so that the results would be truly comparable.

    Hmmm, I wonder what federal elections would be like if everybody's vote was public.

  6. #6
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Hmmm, I wonder what federal elections would be like if everybody's vote was public.
    I can't answer for the first public one, but give me the register, some time and some sedatives and I might be able to swing the coalition back for the next one
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  7. #7
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
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    for the record, i voted coalition by <16.

  8. #8
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    I have just voted for Labor by 16-30 although it could be more than that or less.

    I can identify 17 seats (including Bass and Braddon) in which the Liberals are currently clearly most likely to lose, a further seven in which they are in serious trouble and anything up to 20 more that are in some serious sense on the radar. I'm expecting them to lose virtually all of the first batch, most of the second batch and some of the third. Maybe they might win one or two back somewhere in WA but I doubt it.

    My last prediction was a Labor majority of 18. I think it will be more than that now; I'm raising it slightly to 24. (+/- 20 )

  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    I have just voted for Labor by 16-30 although it could be more than that or less.

    I can identify 17 seats (including Bass and Braddon) in which the Liberals are currently clearly most likely to lose, a further seven in which they are in serious trouble and anything up to 20 more that are in some serious sense on the radar. I'm expecting them to lose virtually all of the first batch, most of the second batch and some of the third. Maybe they might win one or two back somewhere in WA but I doubt it.

    My last prediction was a Labor majority of 18. I think it will be more than that now; I'm raising it slightly to 24. (+/- 20 )
    Do you think there will be a uniform swing to Labor? I am more interested in how the Senate will go for some reason. Any predictions there?

  10. #10
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Here are the candidates in my seat:

    Code:
    Candidate Name 		Party
    
    SAUNDERS, Ewan 		Socialist Alliance
    O'BRIEN, Ted 		Liberal
    BEVIS, Arch 		Australian Labor Party
    CONTARINO, Nick 	Citizens Electoral Council
    GUTHRIE, Elizabeth 	The Greens
    WHITE, Mark A 		Family First
    SINNAMON, Don 		Democrats
    Now apart from Arch Bevis, the sitting member from Labor, I know nothing of the rest except for seeing a few placards around the place.

    How am I supposed to vote for any of these? Oh well, doesnt really matter, Arch Bevis will get in with about 55% of the two party preferred anyways.

  11. #11
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    Do you think there will be a uniform swing to Labor?
    No. I think the swing will be biggest in Queensland and Tasmania and smallest in WA.

    I am more interested in how the Senate will go for some reason. Any predictions there?
    I expect the Coalition to lose its majority, but only narrowly. They will probably only win two in each of NSW, Tas and SA (although Tas should not be considered as much of a gimme as some reckon). They may also lose in Vic and ACT. Xenephon will probably get in in SA. Greens will probably win about four at this election, maybe five.

  12. #12
    CC International Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    How am I supposed to vote for any of these?
    One of them has a nice name.

    Sto pro veritate!

  13. #13
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    How am I supposed to vote for any of these? Oh well, doesnt really matter, Arch Bevis will get in with about 55% of the two party preferred anyways.
    I don't suppose asking about Butthead would be appropriate?
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  14. #14
    CC FIDE Master Southpaw Jim's Avatar
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    Kev - what odds on the 98 outcome? I know 98 was largely a result of Hansonism, but I still fret about the maj 2PP/min seats outcome

    Do you think Braddon is definitely a Lab win? For me, the psephy waters have been muddied

    Will be interesting to see the next poll, following today's Lab launch. I think the undercutting of Coward is a smart move, but you never know how people will react to being porked less than more...

  15. #15
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eurotrash
    Kev - what odds on the 98 outcome? I know 98 was largely a result of Hansonism, but I still fret about the maj 2PP/min seats outcome
    I don't think the Coalition will get close enough. That sort of thing only really happens if you have 2PPs closer than 52:48. Beyond that the idea that you can win with 47 or 46 by losing some seats big and winning a lot of close ones doesn't really work, because big swings that are not uniform will bring so many seats into play that you can't identify and porkbarrel all the "close" seats.

    Do you think Braddon is definitely a Lab win? For me, the psephy waters have been muddied
    Not a definite Labor win but highly likely, although a couple of polls have had it as close.

    Braddon was very much an unexpected Liberal gain last time with a single factor producing a massive swing that still only resulted in a very close victory. The single factor has been removed and I can't see how it won't swing back. I doubt the Mersey hospital thing will be enough to save it.

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