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  1. #1
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    ACF September 2007 Ratings - predictions

    People might like to calculate their rating adjustment using their favourite method and post it here and see how close we are.

    I used my rating calculator and come up with...

    1797 which is +22

    This is based on 15 games and assumes the final game in my local club's grading swiss is completed and submitted for rating in time. I'm not planning to play any more games which might make it into this rating period.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  2. #2
    CC Grandmaster Spiny Norman's Avatar
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    I have no real idea what's going to happen with mine. Main reason is that I had an unexpected loss to a new and unrated player during the period. I also lost a game against a higher-rated player where I missed a forced win. Other than that, my results were pretty good, so I expect (assuming a ?? for the new player) that I will probably lose 10-15 points and be around 1550
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  3. #3
    CC Grandmaster Garrett's Avatar
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    I think mine will go down, probably to about 1730, which will be a coincidence as that is my house number on Main Rd, Slumpsville.

  4. #4
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    I predict everyone's rating will be an accurate reflection of their performance!

    The beautiful game of football acknowledges that upsets and unfair results will happen - but the standings at the end of the season are a fair and accurate reflection of the strength of the play over the long haul.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  5. #5
    CC Grandmaster Spiny Norman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    I predict everyone's rating will be an accurate reflection of their performance!
    Pardon me gunner, but your slip is showing ...
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  6. #6
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frosty
    Pardon me gunner, but your slip is showing ...
    That's actually very good indeed for a Victorian!
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  7. #7
    CC International Master
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    Based on the NSW Open (not so good) and the ANU Open (better), which I think are my only tournaments this time, the Barry calculator says 1868 (= +9) and the back of the envelope says 1869, so it's probably in that area. My gut feeling is it's more likely to be slightly lower.

  8. #8
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    Current rating 1274!

    Played 12 games (W6 D3 L3)

    True performance ratings
    Flood Cup (5/7) 1537
    Qld Reserve (2.5/5) 1267

    Rating calculator 1342!! (+68)
    expected score system 1339 (+65)

    My rating always jumps up more than expected, so I'll guess at 1346 with 2 strong wins from 2 games owed for the December list against unrated and 1439 (WFM).
    Last edited by CameronD; 09-08-2007 at 01:04 PM.

  9. #9
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    I used Barry's rating calculator and entered guess ratings with ??s for the three unrated players I played. I also tweaked the ratings of a couple of players up or down on the basis of very strong or weak performances in a tournament going in this period - strong or weak enough that the interim rating will significantly differ from their published rating.

    For instance Kevin Hendrey (1295) has just scored 9.5/13 coming =2nd in the Burnie Club Champs despite being seeded 9th. Thus it's likely he will be treated as if rated quite a bit higher than 1295.

    Anyway on the basis of all this my projected result is a loss of 19 points from 1984 to 1965.

    The ratings calculator tends to be slightly less dynamic than the actual changes in my rating so I'll predict 1962. Think that drops me below firegoat again so I'll have some incentive to get my act together and stop playing so much rubbish.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 08-08-2007 at 08:17 PM.

  10. #10
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    -- Winning Liddums
    -- 2 x losses to Regina Edwards (1330) including 1 x whoppee cushion explosion

    Yada yada yada ...

    + 30 to about 1515

    Played 16: W:12 D:0 L:4

    The two losses against Regina cost 29 points! and the loss to the Bxf7 thingo at Liddums cost another 14.

    Look it's quite obvious my real strength is about 1900. Can you just slide that in please Bill? Thanks heaps.

    And thanks again for the facility, Baz.
    Last edited by Basil; 08-08-2007 at 08:15 PM.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  11. #11
    Account Permanently Banned Axiom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    -- Winning Liddums
    -- 2 x losses to Regina Edwards (1330) including 1 x whoppee cushion explosion

    Yada yada yada ...

    + 30 to about 1515

    Played 16: W:12 D:0 L:4

    The two losses against Regina cost 29 points! and the loss to the Bxf7 thingo at Liddums cost another 14.

    Look it's quite obvious my real strength is about 1900. Can you just slide that in please Bill? Thanks heaps.

    And thanks again for the facility, Baz.
    look ! i'll only say,to be fair - if youre not 1700 in real strength right now ! ,then i'll eat my hat!

  12. #12
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    slump

    my turn for the slump horror camp!
    I managed to get my rating to 1576, then went down to 1564! In this coming ratings I will be very happy to be included in the 1350 - 1400 bracket. No excuses whatsoever, but I think that, in my case, losing kgs has something to do with losing brain cells as well! Cheers, good luck and cagles!
    https://www.nswca.org.au/index.php
    ACF 3118316
    FIDE 3201457

    From this day (13-11-20) onwards, I will only be posting, shouting and reading none other than chess related posts.
    Fully vaccinated since October, 21, 2021

  13. #13
    CC FIDE Master Southpaw Jim's Avatar
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    Using Barry's calculator, I should probably go up about 100-150, depending on how unrated players are treated by the ACF. The lower end of this estimate range accords with my own Glicko approximation. Might even make the 'Most Improved' list!

    Can Bill or someone explain how results against unrated players are treated? In our club champs we had 3 unrated players. One I know had a USCF rating of 2041, so I've used that as a proxy in the calculator, another I'm guessing is about 1500. The third, whom I beat, is substantially lower - I'd estimate between 1000-1200.

    Is it like on FICS, where you get a provisional rating of 1500 and a really high RD? Or does ACF try and guess an individual initial rating?
    "the other lefty"

  14. #14
    CC International Master WhiteElephant's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by heavyknight
    I think that, in my case, losing kgs has something to do with losing brain cells as well! Cheers, good luck and cagles!
    Funny you should say that, hk, I find that when I put on weight I play better chess and when I lose some, I have more trouble concentrating. Weird....

  15. #15
    CC International Master Metro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WhiteElephant
    Funny you should say that, hk, I find that when I put on weight I play better chess and when I lose some, I have more trouble concentrating. Weird....
    More fuel in the tank?

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