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  1. #1
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Johnny's Going Down

    While not a certainty, it appears more likely than not that Labor will win the next federal election.

    This is not devastating news to me.
    - it is important to have change (perhaps not for the sake, but I digress)
    - no-one can govern forever
    - there is much to be said (peace of mind for me, for one) for letting Labor have a go (that's how the Libs got in last time!

    so I'm settling back and looking at the marketing that is winning and losing the hearts and minds of Australia

    1. Industrial Relations
    Despite what any of us say intellectually or factually, the deed is done. A massive whack of Australians absolutely believe that the governments IR laws are bad.

    2. Tuned Out
    I was listening to some commentary a couple of weeks ago where the talking head suggested that regardless of the merits or otherwise of what Keating was saying (prior to his dumping), the nation had tuned out to him. I feel that a significant chunk of voters (not particularly politically savvy, nor particularly ignorant) have tuned out to John Howard.

    3. Campaign 'Asleep on Climate Change'
    The current campaign with Johnny in bed for the last 11 years is winner IMO. Again, I give it no personal weight because among other things
    - I want to know what the Labor government was so actively doing 11 years and one day ago
    - There are genuine reasons (albeit disputed) and ones I support for the Libs' position on climate change

    4. There's also the 'Sneaky' imaging which Rudd and Gillard did so well a couple of months ago

    and others.

    Carry on!
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  2. #2
    CC FIDE Master Southpaw Jim's Avatar
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    I think it'll certainly go down to the wire. Labor's enjoying a massive lead in the polls, plus the betting agencies have the smart money on Labor (60% probability) - however, winning 16 seats is no mean feat.

    I'm actually surprised Labor hasn't made more of Howard's prediliction for nuclear power yet, although this may be one of the planks of their official campaign when it happens. IR is certainly a 3 legged dog, and their ad campaigns to 'address the union misinformation' isn't helping IMO (especially with today's news about the actor who has allegedly ripped off employees).

    Interesting factoid: the Government has apparently spent (since Budget) 3 times as much in pre-election promises as Labor. It seems that nothing is helping their polling, be it profligacy, propaganda, name-calling or dirty tricks. Poor Johnny can't even give Kevin a wedgie!

    Labor also seems to have a high level source/leak/mole, a number of leaks over the last few months, including yesterday's Textor dossier.

    The polling fallout from tomorrow's (almost certain) interest rate rise should be interesting to watch.
    Last edited by Southpaw Jim; 07-08-2007 at 01:57 PM.
    "the other lefty"

  3. #3
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Back to the bad old days of union control once the über-leftists like Gillard and Tanner demand their pound of flesh. Rudd is doing the usual mendacious leftist "campaign to the middle, govern to the left" dance.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  4. #4
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    There both bad, need something more near the middle. I guess thats why I'm defined a swinging voter, I'm not committed to either philosopy.

  5. #5
    CC International Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    While not a certainty, it appears more likely than not that Labor will win the next federal election.
    I predict there will be a great fight for the title of "underdog of the election".

  6. #6
    Account Permanently Banned Axiom's Avatar
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    Enjoy The Show !

    Enjoy the tag team,dog and pony ,punch and judy,tweedledum and tweedledumber*,puppet show !



    *TM (Rincewind)

  7. #7
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Axiom
    ...tweedledum and tweedledumber*,...

    *TM (Rincewind)
    Not me. Ani Difranco used it in the song 'Fuel' (which is where heard it). But not sure if that was original or had already been used to describe the American, two-party model.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  8. #8
    CC Grandmaster
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    Howard, you seem to have changed your tune since the Labor=doom and gloom attitude of a few months ago.

    Looking at recent developments, it is hard to see whether there will be any significant difference in a Labor government. At the moment, Rudd is trying to project himself as close to Howard as possible, and Howard is trying to look like a lefty on some issues.

    It's the old Hotelling's law problem: two ice-cream sellers on a beach will gravitate to the middle of the beach right next to each other by economic forces alone. So it is with two party politics (at least in an election year).

  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    Howard, you seem to have changed your tune since the Labor=doom and gloom attitude of a few months ago.
    Film at 11. Just getting my answers to HK.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  10. #10
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mangafranga
    I predict there will be a great fight for the title of "underdog of the election".
    That's a good one!
    For private coaching (IM, four times VIC champion) call or SMS 0417519733
    Computer tells you what to play. Good coach explains why.

  11. #11
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    I was listening to some commentary a couple of weeks ago where the talking head suggested that regardless of the merits or otherwise of what Keating was saying (prior to his dumping), the nation had tuned out to him. I feel that a significant chunk of voters (not particularly politically savvy, nor particularly ignorant) have tuned out to John Howard.
    Same sorts of opinion poll gaps but the dynamic is different. In 1996 voters thought Howard was mediocre but hated Keating. Now they still think Howard's mediocre but they reckon Rudd is great. It should be easier to get the voters to lose interest in Rudd than it would have been to get them to forgive Keating, but thus far almost everything the Libs have thrown at Rudd has flopped.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    Back to the bad old days of union control once the über-leftists like Gillard and Tanner demand their pound of flesh.
    Gillard appears to inspire some pretty strong emotions from her opponents. I can come here and see you calling her an uber-leftist and then I can go to Tasmanian Times where posters are calling her an avid anti-environmentalist. I reckon that compared to 30 or even 20 years ago there's barely a real hard-leftist left in the ALP frontbench.

  12. #12
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    In 1996 voters thought Howard was mediocre but hated Keating. Now they still think Howard's mediocre but they reckon Rudd is great.
    I'm not privy to your research. I assume you're talking about the swinging voters. I certainly don't hold the opinion you ascribe, and I'm fairly certain the lifer lefties don't believe Howard is mediocre - they loathe everything (they think) he stands for.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  13. #13
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    I'm not privy to your research.
    Actually not mine - Bryan Palmer's at Oz Politics

    [..] I'm fairly certain the lifer lefties don't believe Howard is mediocre - they loathe everything (they think) he stands for.
    This is true but the lifer lefties are few and quite irrelevant, and would hate any Liberal administration whatsoever.

  14. #14
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Actually not mine - Bryan Palmer's at Oz Politics[/url]
    I didn't mean to imply it was your personal research. I meant the research to which you were referring.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    This is true but the lifer lefties are few and quite irrelevant
    Please stop saying things like that. I've met 30 lifer lefties on this board. Another 30 work for me. And another 30 that I call friends.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  15. #15
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    Please stop saying things like that. I've met 30 lifer lefties on this board.
    Am I one of those?

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