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  1. #4186
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    This is actually consistent with what Kevin posted, as can be seen in the trend from 1980 onwards. The much earlier data which Lomborg includes may be unreliable (as he acknowledges), but even if it isn't, the declining trend it shows has obviously stopped, and the recent trend in burnt area is upwards.

  2. #4187
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    The difference being different time scales. Lomborg's own graph shows the same thing, ie increase over the last few decades. Indeed, increase over the last few decades compared to the few decades before them too.

    As I can't find any refutation of Lomborg's stats for the 1920s through 1960 I'll assume them correct. Lomborg states:

    As is evident, US burnt forest area has dramatically *declined* since the 1920s, 1930s and 1940, after which widespread fire suppression was introduced. As more burnable mass is piling up, fire is going up slightly.

    Now, it appears probable that global warming will lead to somewhat more forest fires.

    [my emphasis]

    Incidentally, can't speak for the US, but in south-east Australian wet forests, more burnable mass doesn't necessarily equal more fires. Rather, up to a point, more fires equals more fires - early successional forests burn well. I went to one talk by resident pyrodramatist Dave Bowman where he talked about the amount of control burning necessary to get around this problem and protect Hobart from the next "big one". It sounded such an extreme solution that I think a lot of people would rather just put up with the risk of the city going up in flames.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 09-08-2018 at 09:10 PM.

  3. #4188
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Gupta launches 1GW renewable plan at Cultana solar project
    Renew Economy
    15.8.18

    UK steel billionaire Sanjeev Gupta has officially launched his plans to build more than 1 gigawatt (1,000MW) of dispatchable renewable energy at a ground-breaking ceremony for the first of those projects – the 280MW Cultana solar project near Whyalla.

    Gupta was joined by South Australia Premier Steven Marshall and Whyalla mayor Lyn Breuer for the ceremony, where Gupta reinforced his goal to expand Australia’s manufacturing and heavy industry around a supply of cheap and reliable renewable energy.

    The contrast with the policy debate in Canberra, where the Coalition on Tuesday endorsed a National Energy Guarantee policy designed to ensure no new renewable energy is built over most of the next decade, could not have been more marked....

    Hydro, wind and solar output rises as gas generation slumps

    Australia experienced a significant jump in output from hydro power, and wind and solar farms in the second quarter of 2018, mostly at the expense of gas generation and some black coal output.

    The latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics report from the Australian Energy Market Operator shows that in the second quarter the average output of hydro increased by 663MW, wind by 546MW (thanks to new generation and better wind conditions), and solar by 157MW (new generation).

    This was offset by a big fall in the average output of gas generation (down 697MW) and from black coal generation (down 53MW). Both of these technologies reported major outages – planned and unplanned – and came despite an overall rise in demand mostly due to the record high temperatures in April....
    Last edited by Ian Murray; 15-08-2018 at 05:35 PM.

  4. #4189
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    It's still winter, and the bushfire season is well under way. Longer fire seasons are one of the outcomes we can expect as the climate changes

    http://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/index.html

    Authorities on alert as fire threat continues
    FIRES have ripped through farmland west of Brisbane, blackening hectares of land and ruining what little stock feed there was left....

    NSW bushfires: very high fire danger as damaging winds forecast
    South coast residents say being under threat from fires in winter is unheard of...

    Sydney's bushfire season starts in winter: 'We may have to rethink how we live'

    Bushfire season brought forward in NSW by two months after 'next to no rain'
    Rainfall has also been below average in the eastern and northern parts of Queensland...

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