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  1. #1
    Mr Bulldogs Paul S's Avatar
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    Underrated Juniors

    I experienced first-hand the problem (which I had tended to previously dismiss as whingeing by "sore loser" chess players) of underrated juniors at the Doeberl. Despite what has been previousy said (implied), this problem of underrated Juniors is NOT confined to just the ACT!

    I played in the Minor at the Doeberl, and was seeded #20, so theoretically I should have ended up with 4.5/7 (instead of my actual score of 3.5/7).

    My round 1 game was against Jessica Kinder (I think she is about 12 to 13 years old) from QLD, who was (supposedly!) only rated 933. As such, when I saw the rating difference between us (I'm 1432), I thought "OK, I just need to go through the motions here and I will win"! However, after "going through the motions (eg playing my moves too quickly)" until realising by about move 25 that Jessica was (by the way she played) in reality about 1300-1350, my game was lost, and Jessica had a well deserved win (well done, young Jessica!). BTW, Jessica ended up with 4/7.

    I won my round 2 game against an ACT Junior (Aidan Lloyd - a boy of about 10) who was supposedly only 992 (but in reality was more like 1250-1300). It took me a while to "finish him off" (the "decisicive moment" came after about 60 moves). BTW, Aidan ended up with 3/7.

    In my round 6 game, I played Eugene Schon from VIC who was supposedly rated 853. Well, for a player who is supposedly about 600 points weaker than me, I did well to get a draw!!! Here is my game with young Eugene (a boy of about 10) - tell me BB readers, is this the sort of game that one would expect a player with a (supposedly) 853 rating to play? White (Eugene Schon) vs Black (Myself) 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 d6 3. d4 Bg4 4. de BxN 5. Qx B de 6. Bc4 Qe7 7. Bd2 Nd7 8. Qb3 Nc5 9. Qf3 0-0-0 10. Nc3 c6 11. 0-0-0 f6 12. Be3 h5 13. BxN QxB 14. Qf5+ Kc7 15. RxR KxR 16 Rd1+ Bd6 17. Qe6 Kc7 18. Qf7+ Ne7 19. Q x g7 Rd8 20. Bf7 Qxf2 21. Bxh5 Rg8 22. Qf7 Rxg2 23 Be2 b5 24. a3 Rxh2 25. Qe6 Qe3+ 26 Kb1 Qc5 27 Bg4 f5 28. ef Nd5 29. NxN c6xN 30. Rc1 a5 31. f6 b4 32. c4 ba 33. Qd7+ Kb6 34. ba d4 35. Bf3 Qc7 36. Qb5+ Ka7 37. c5 Qb8 38. Qb6+ QxQ 39. c5x Q+ Kb8 40. a4 Rf2 41. Rc6 RxB 42. RxB Kb7 43. Re6 e4 44. Rxe4 Rxf6 45 Rxd4 Kxb6 46. Ka2 Rf3 47. Rd5 Rf2+ Draw agreed (1/2 - 1/2). BTW, Eugene ended up with 4/7 at the Doeberl. IMHO the game he played was what I would have expected from someone rated around 1500-1600 (not 853!!!).

    In round 7 I played David Jaksa of ACT (about 13-14 years old I think) who was supposedly rated 1051. After about 45 moves we agreed on a draw. From the way he played it seemed as though his true rating was around 1400-1450. Indeed when I said to David afterwards "you're a lot better than 1051", he told me that he had recently beaten a few players rated over 1500! BTW, David ended up with 3.5/7 at the Doeberl.

    Fortunately I don't care (too much!) about my rating these days! However, my experiences with playing underrated Juniors at the 2004 Doeberl (which BTW will not affect whether or not I play in the 2005 Doeberl) indicates to me that there is something wrong with the rating system w.r.t. Juniors Australia wide (ie not just the ACT!), despite the ratings being updated nowadays every 3 months.
    Last edited by Paul S; 18-04-2004 at 05:38 PM.

  2. #2
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul S
    I experienced first-hand the problem (which I had tended to previously dismiss as whingeing by "sore loser" chess players) of underrated juniors at the Doeberl. Despite what has been previousy said (implied), this problem of underrated Juniors is NOT confined to just the ACT!

    I played in the Minor at the Doeberl, and was seeded #20, so theoretically I should have ended up with 4.5/7 (instead of my actual score of 3.5/7).

    My round 1 game was against Jessica Kinder (I think she is about 12 to 13 years old) from QLD, who was (supposedly!) only rated 933. As such, when I saw the rating difference between us (I'm 1432), I thought "OK, I just need to go through the motions here and I will win"! However, after "going through the motions (eg playing my moves too quickly)" until realising by about move 25 that Jessica was (by the way she played) in reality about 1300-1350, my game was lost, and Jessica had a well deserved win (well done, young Jessica!). BTW, Jessica ended up with 4/7.

    I won my round 2 game against an ACT Junior (Aidan Lloyd - a boy of about 10) who was supposedly only 992 (but in reality was more like 1250-1300). It took me a while to "finish him off" (the "decisicive moment" came after about 60 moves). BTW, Aidan ended up with 3/7.

    In my round 6 game, I played Eugene Schon from VIC who was supposedly rated 853. Well, for a player who is supposedly about 600 points weaker than me, I did well to get a draw!!! Here is my game with young Eugene (a boy of about 10) - tell me BB readers, is this the sort of game that one would expect a player with a (supposedly) 853 rating to play? White (Eugene Schon) vs Black (Myself) 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 d6 3. d4 Bg4 4. de BxN 5. Qx B de 6. Bc4 Qe7 7. Bd2 Nd7 8. Qb3 Nc5 9. Qf3 0-0-0 10. Nc3 c6 11. 0-0-0 f6 12. Be3 h5 13. BxN QxB 14. Qf5+ Kc7 15. RxR KxR 16 Rd1+ Bd6 17. Qe6 Kc7 18. Qf7+ Ne7 19. Q x g7 Rd8 20. Bf7 Qxf2 21. Bxh5 Rg8 22. Qf7 Rxg2 23 Be2 b5 24. a3 Rxh2 25. Qe6 Qe3+ 26 Kb1 Qc5 27 Bg4 f5 28. ef Nd5 29. NxN c6xN 30. Rc1 a5 31. f6 b4 32. c4 ba 33. Qd7+ Kb6 34. ba d4 35. Bf3 Qc7 36. Qb5+ Ka7 37. c5 Qb8 38. Qb6+ QxQ 39. c5x Q+ Kb8 40. a4 Rf2 41. Rc6 RxB 42. RxB Kb7 43. Re6 e4 44. Rxe4 Rxf6 45 Rxd4 Kxb6 46. Ka2 Rf3 47. Rd5 Rf2+ Draw agreed (1/2 - 1/2). BTW, Eugene ended up with 4/7 at the Doeberl. IMHO the game he played was what I would have expected from someone rated around 1500-1600 (not 853!!!).

    In round 7 I played David Jaksa of ACT (about 13-14 years old I think) who was supposedly rated 1051. After about 45 moves we agreed on a draw. From the way he played it seemed as though his true rating was around 1400-1450. Indeed when I said to David afterwards "you're a lot better than 1051", he told me that he had recently beaten a few players rated over 1500! BTW, David ended up with 3.5/7 at the Doeberl.

    Fortunately I don't care (too much!) about my rating these days! However, my experiences with playing underrated Juniors at the 2004 Doeberl (which BTW will not affect whether or not I play in the 2005 Doeberl) indicates to me that there is something wrong with the rating system w.r.t. Juniors Australia wide (ie not just the ACT!), despite the ratings being updated nowadays every 3 months.
    If we look at the rating history of the players you mention there is no indication that they are significantly stronger than their ratings with the exception of Schon.

    Code:
    Results For Player Aidan Lloyd Id number = 1291833
    Current Rating = 992 Current Rapid Rating = Unr
    
    Players Historical Rating Performance Normal
     Period   Rating  Perf  Score  Games
    Aug 2001    Unr    208    2.5     7
    Dec 2001     77   -241    0.0     3
    Apr 2002    132    415    1.5     2
    Aug 2002    329    759    4.5     8
    Dec 2002    573    705   10.0    24
    Mar 2003    574    589    1.0     5
    Jun 2003    576    578   10.5    28
    Sep 2003    588    605    8.0    23
    Nov 2003    897      0    0.0     0
    Dec 2003    955   1006   14.5    30
    Mar 2004    992    652    2.0     6
    Based on previous results there is no indication Aidan is underrated.

    Code:
    Results For Player David Jaksa Id number = 1292894
    Current Rating = 1051 Current Rapid Rating = 559
    
    Players Historical Rating Performance Normal
     Period   Rating  Perf  Score  Games
    Dec 2002    Unr    604    1.0     1
    Jun 2003    757    757    5.5    11
    Sep 2003    745    740   11.0    24
    Nov 2003   1054      0    0.0     0
    Dec 2003    981    921    9.0    18
    
    Players Historical Rating Performance Rapid
     Period   Rating  Perf  Score  Games
    Mar 2003    Unr    391    2.5     8
    Mar 2004    559    635    5.0    12
    Again based on previous results there is no indication David is underrated.


    Code:
    Results For Player Jessica Kinder Id number = 4175671
    Current Rating = 933 Current Rapid Rating = 876
    
    Players Historical Rating Performance Normal
     Period   Rating  Perf  Score  Games
    Apr 2001    Unr    584    1.0     5
    Aug 2001    479    388    1.5    13
    Dec 2001    567    650    4.5    22
    Apr 2002    577    638    1.0     5
    Aug 2002    711    865    8.0    19
    Dec 2002    798    914    9.0    24
    Jun 2003    723     70    1.0     4
    Nov 2003    751      0    0.0     0
    Dec 2003    775    798   11.0    22
    Mar 2004    933   1094    7.5    16
    
    Players Historical Rating Performance Rapid
     Period   Rating  Perf  Score  Games
    Dec 2000    493    493    2.5    11
    Aug 2001    568    586   15.0    38
    Dec 2001    749    799   24.5    52
    Apr 2002    771    877    2.5    11
    Aug 2002    828    876   25.5    42
    Dec 2002    866    983   10.0    17
    Jun 2003    879    902   13.0    21
    Sep 2003    793    642    9.5    19
    Dec 2003    836    917   12.0    19
    Mar 2004    876    659    2.0     6
    There is no real evidence that Jessica is underrated. Prior to March 2004 she had never performed near the 1000 mark let alone the 1300. Even in the March period she only performed at the 1094 level over 16 games.
    Her rating of 933 is reasonable based on her results.

    Code:
    Results For Player Eugene Schon Id number = 3115450
    Current Rating = 853 Current Rapid Rating = 741
    
    Players Historical Rating Performance Normal
     Period   Rating  Perf  Score  Games
    Mar 2004    853   1169   11.0    20
    
    Players Historical Rating Performance Rapid
     Period   Rating  Perf  Score  Games
    Dec 2001    Unr    174    3.5     7
    Apr 2002    237    279    4.0     7
    Aug 2002    218    202    6.0    14
    Dec 2002    350    458   15.0    29
    Mar 2003    355    378    3.5     7
    Jun 2003    473    732    8.5    14
    Sep 2003    552    725   14.5    21
    Dec 2003    567    621   11.0    21
    Mar 2004    741   1143   11.0    21
    Anybody who is really observant will realise that Eugene is the player starter was referring to in the March 2004 ratings thread.
    Eugene may be underrated or he may not be. Prior to his March 2004 rating there was no indication he was near 1100. Its possible that result was an anomaly or that the Glicko just cannot correct him sufficently in just 1 rating period.

  3. #3
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    Have these juniors played in tournaments against adults, or are they mainly playing amongst themselves (i.e. against other presumably under-rated juniors)?

  4. #4
    Account Suspended jenni's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay_vee
    Have these juniors played in tournaments against adults, or are they mainly playing amongst themselves (i.e. against other presumably under-rated juniors)?
    Aidan Lloyd (who is turning 14 this year) and David Jaksa both play at Belconnen Chess Club. Thus they do play a number of adults, although a lot of other juniors as well (because of the number at BCC). Aidan plays all the JUnior weekenders as well.

    Aidan does seem to perform well against adults - he got quite good results last year in Queensland. He is a bit erratic and often loses to juniors, so his rating is probably a bit lower than it could be.

    I think the problem is the juniors are always going to seem under-rated, as they are improving and their rating lags their performance. At the moment I feel Glicko 2 is bringing improving juniors to their correct rating faster. However it is never going to be accurate, if a junior is rapidly improving. Both Jessica Kinder and Eugene Schon fit into the rapidly improving slot. I also think Juniors are more fiery and really want to win, so are alwasy harder to play - I would much rather play a 1200 adult than an 800 junior.

  5. #5
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay_vee
    Have these juniors played in tournaments against adults, or are they mainly playing amongst themselves (i.e. against other presumably under-rated juniors)?
    That issue was taken into consideration when the ACT juniors ratings and anyone interstate players they played were corrected back in November 2003.
    Anyone in the list with a rating showing as Nov 2003 was a correction.

  6. #6
    Mr Bulldogs Paul S's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jenni
    Aidan Lloyd (who is turning 14 this year) .......
    Sorry, Aidan (assuming you read this BB). It seems that you are a few years older than I thought you were!

    Quote Originally Posted by jenni
    I also think Juniors are more fiery and really want to win, so are alwasy harder to play - I would much rather play a 1200 adult than an 800 junior.
    Yes, I too would prefer to play a 1200 adult (reliable rating) than an 800 Junior (unreliable rating!). I like to know what I am up against!

  7. #7
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jenni
    I also think Juniors are more fiery and really want to win, so are alwasy harder to play - I would much rather play a 1200 adult than an 800 junior.
    Actually i think its easier to play a 1200 rated adult than a 1200 rated junior.

    Also the younger the juniors are the more erratic they are.

  8. #8
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    how about not looking at the rating of your opponent before you play your game?

  9. #9
    Mr Bulldogs Paul S's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos
    If we look at the rating history of the players you mention there is no indication that they are significantly stronger than their ratings with the exception of Schon.

    Based on previous results there is no indication Aidan is underrated.

    Again based on previous results there is no indication David is underrated.

    There is no real evidence that Jessica is underrated. Prior to March 2004 she had never performed near the 1000 mark let alone the 1300. Even in the March period she only performed at the 1094 level over 16 games.
    Her rating of 933 is reasonable based on her results.
    Perhaps.

    Nonetheless, that was not my experience in playing these players! Has anyone else played any of these Juniors (Jessica Kinder, Aidan Lloyd and David Jaksa) recently?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos
    Anybody who is really observant will realise that Eugene is the player starter was referring to in the March 2004 ratings thread.
    Eugene may be underrated or he may not be. Prior to his March 2004 rating there was no indication he was near 1100. Its possible that result was an anomaly or that the Glicko just cannot correct him sufficently in just 1 rating period.
    I guess I wasn't that observant! Mind you, I don't read every post on this BB!

    I have put up the game I played with Eugene (see my original post in this thread). Again I ask BB readers, is this the game one would expect a (supposedly) 853 rated player to play?

  10. #10
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    to help Paul S out :


    White (Eugene Schon) vs Black (Paul S)

    PGN Viewer
     
    Last edited by Garvinator; 18-04-2004 at 07:34 PM.

  11. #11
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul S
    Perhaps.

    Nonetheless, that was not my experience in playing these players! Has anyone else played any of these Juniors (Jessica Kinder, Aidan Lloyd and David Jaksa) recently?
    The point is you can only rate players based on their results and not the opinion of their vanquished opponents.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul S
    I guess I wasn't that observant! Mind you, I don't read every post on this BB!
    Shame on you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul S
    I have put up the game I played with Eugene (see my original post in this thread). Again I ask BB readers, is this the game one would expect a (supposedly) 853 rated player to play?
    At the very best he would only be rated 1169. You would still out rate him by 263 points. As jenni pointed out, some juniors just improve rapidly. There is not you can do to cater for them.

  12. #12
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    to help Paul S out
    Unfortunately most of it is not valid pgn hence it stops working.
    e.g things like RxR and BxN etc.

  13. #13
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    One thing to remember is that a rating measures average performance, combining good and bad days. Juniors will tend to play at their peak for a special event like the Doeberl and not so hard at ordinary club or junior events.

  14. #14
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos
    Unfortunately most of it is not valid pgn hence it stops working.
    e.g things like RxR and BxN etc.
    and i have been correcting the notation, but it wont allow me pass 16. Rd1 ??

  15. #15
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    to help Paul S out :


    White (Eugene Schon) vs Black (Paul S)

    PGN Viewer
     
    This should be correct.

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