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  1. #1
    CC International Master Kerry Stead's Avatar
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    Olympiad Dresden 2008

    Why not start some speculating now ... possibles for the Olympiad in 2008.
    I wouldn't be surprised to see a team which is very young - heck, I think it would be good for chess in Australia.

    What about the following team:
    1. Rogers
    2. Smerdon
    3. Zhao
    4. Ly
    5. Xie
    6. Johansen

    Is it feasible? Would Ly & Xie make the ACF criteria of the strongest on current playing strength (imagining 2 years in the future), or could the ACF be a little flexible with its selection proceedure? Does the current criteria necessarily produce the side that will give the best result?

    Food for thought ...

  2. #2
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kerry Stead
    Why not start some speculating now ... possibles for the Olympiad in 2008.
    I wouldn't be surprised to see a team which is very young - heck, I think it would be good for chess in Australia.

    What about the following team:
    1. Rogers
    2. Smerdon
    3. Zhao
    4. Ly
    5. Xie
    6. Johansen

    Is it feasible? Would Ly & Xie make the ACF criteria of the strongest on current playing strength (imagining 2 years in the future), or could the ACF be a little flexible with its selection proceedure? Does the current criteria necessarily produce the side that will give the best result?

    Food for thought ...
    I doubt Ly will become stronger than Johansen by 2008.

  3. #3
    Account Permanently Banned firegoat7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron
    I doubt Ly will become stronger than Johansen by 2008.
    and I doubt even George Xie believes that he will be stronger then Johansen in 2008. In fact is it realistic to even suggest that Zhao is stronger then Johansen?

    Anyway,
    Heres my two cents worth

    1.Smerdon
    2. Rogers
    3. Johansen
    4. Zhao
    5. Wohl
    6. Ly
    7. Lane

    I think Solo and Goldenberg are also good outside chances. I actually get the feeling players like Daryl, Chapman and Speck might stop playing altogether.

    cheers fg7

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron
    I doubt Ly will become stronger than Johansen by 2008.
    I wouldn't rule it out. Moulthun has performed at around the 2500 mark recently, which is a massive improvement on 18 months ago. Who can predict where he might be in another 18 months time?

  5. #5
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kerry Stead
    ...
    2. Smerdon
    3. Zhao
    4. Ly
    ...
    It will be interesting to see which of these players need GM norms, and the juggling act to give them all a decent chance for it.
    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  6. #6
    CC Candidate Master
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    Wink Isnt this thread just a little early?

    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    I wouldn't rule it out. Moulthun has performed at around the 2500 mark recently, which is a massive improvement on 18 months ago. Who can predict where he might be in another 18 months time?
    Performing at 2500 rated and being 2500 rated are 2 very different things.

    I80 FIDE rated points wouldnt be implausible for him to gain in 2 years,but he would have to continue to play a bit of chess outside Australia to do it.

    Looks like that prize money from the World Open will be spent on airfares.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by zigzag
    Performing at 2500 rated and being 2500 rated are 2 very different things.
    Yes, of course. And actually being 2500 strength is a different thing again.

    Hypothetically speaking, Moulthun could be regarded as 2500 strength by the selectors even if his rating was somewhat short of that mark.

    Darryl's rating is currently 2458, after a steady decline over the past four years. Darryl's performances under Olympiad conditions are generally significantly higher than that, but nevertheless he probably has a bit of work to do to stay ahead of the likes of Zhao, Ly and Xie.

  8. #8
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    I think that outside those already mentioned John-Paul Wallace is a possibility although I don't know how much chess he is playing. As a long shot I wonder how stong Dusan Stojic might be in 12 months or so.
    Scott

  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    I think discussions over the women's Olympiad team is more interesting considering the general complete inactivity of most of the contenders.

  10. #10
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    This seems like a good time to remind readers that an Olympiad activity criterion exists for 2008: 20 rated games must be played in the 12 months prior to the closing of applications for a player to be eligible for selection. (Rated can mean ACF rated, FIDE rated, or, following a recent minor by-law amendment, rating by other approved federations eg BCF, subject to certain conditions.)

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  11. #11
    CC Grandmaster
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    How about Zigen Lin...he is on 4.5/5 in Elwood Weekender so far...including two wins over seasoned IMs Rujevic and West

  12. #12
    CC FIDE Master
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    it is a bit early to speculate or is it... i think that 4 players are definetly in rogers, smerdon, wohl and zhao... the other 2 spots are up for grabs... i don't think darryl will play since he didn't go to turin, i think it is unlikely he will go again... the way moulthan is playing, i don't see the reason why he wouldn't be able to go... last spot is interesting, gary lane seems the most logical choice...

  13. #13
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    You certainly couldn't count out Wallace, judging by his performance in this year's 4NCL:

    http://www.fide.com/ratings/tourarc....field1=3200957

    It's interesting to note that it would have been a GM norm (I think) had he beaten Ian Rogers in the final round!

  14. #14
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    You certainly couldn't count out Wallace, judging by his performance in this year's 4NCL:

    http://www.fide.com/ratings/tourarc....field1=3200957

    It's interesting to note that it would have been a GM norm (I think) had he beaten Ian Rogers in the final round!
    That is a very strong performance, if he plays like this in the lead up to the next olympiad then it would be hard to keep him out.

    I do note he also played the Surrey Open, a 6 round weekender which was included in the October list and he performed just under his rating.
    Scott

  15. #15
    CC International Master Bereaved's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    This seems like a good time to remind readers that an Olympiad activity criterion exists for 2008: 20 rated games must be played in the 12 months prior to the closing of applications for a player to be eligible for selection. (Rated can mean ACF rated, FIDE rated, or, following a recent minor by-law amendment, rating by other approved federations eg BCF, subject to certain conditions.)

    - Kevin Bonham
    ACF Selections Co-Ordinator (Senior Events)
    Hi Kevin,

    What provisions have been made by the ACF of there being insufficient applicants to fulfil this requirement; by this I mean given that 2 women who apply are eligible, and two other women apply who are ineligible owing to insufficient games, and most importantly, two girls aged 9 and 11, who are consistently on the most active list throughout the year also apply.

    The two junior girls are substantially lower in rating, than the two adult females who are ineligible owing to inactivity; I am interested how this would be resolved?

    Take care and God Bless, Macavity

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