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  1. #1
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Rating Differentials

    Does anyone know of a site that states how much one person should score against another over a series of games- ie players with 300 point difference play a 10 game match, what should the overall score be based just on rating.

    I am sure there has to be a site somewhere and I admit I havent searched for one

  2. #2
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    Does anyone know of a site that states how much one person should score against another over a series of games- ie players with 300 point difference play a 10 game match, what should the overall score be based just on rating.

    I am sure there has to be a site somewhere and I admit I havent searched for one
    Check the FIDE site at http://www.fide.com/official/handbook.asp?level=B0210

    That shows the expected % based on the normal curve.

    You can however use the superior logistic curve formula which Elo recommended in his book and is used by the USCF, Glicko and others:

    P = 1/(1 + 10 ^ [D/400]) where D = the rating difference.
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  3. #3
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos
    Check the FIDE site at http://www.fide.com/official/handbook.asp?level=B0210

    That shows the expected % based on the normal curve.

    You can however use the superior logistic curve formula which Elo recommended in his book and is used by the USCF, Glicko and others:

    P = 1/(1 + 10 ^ [D/400]) where D = the rating difference.
    Thank you Bill, the reason I asked was that I wanted to see if AO was willing to state how many points start he could give an opponent. Since he thinks of himself as a GM, it should be plenty

    I just wanted to see if his thoughts would match reality

  4. #4
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    site?

    Won't that site give only the ELO results?

    Don't we use a funny glick thingy now?

  5. #5
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by qpawn
    Won't that site give only the ELO results?

    Don't we use a funny glick thingy now?
    The scaling of Glicko and ELO is the same so the same differentials should apply.
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  6. #6
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by qpawn
    Won't that site give only the ELO results?
    I pointed out the FIDE site uses the normal distribution.
    The USCF, Glicko amongst others use the logistic function.
    Quote Originally Posted by qpawn
    Don't we use a funny glick thingy now?
    Garvin was interested in expected percentage. The difference between normal and logistic is minimal up to around a difference of 350 points, however even at 600 points there is only a 1.4% difference in expected percentage.
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  7. #7
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    data mining

    It would be an intresting experiment to see how accurate ELO formula in estimating the result. E.g a regression of result on three variables (ELO prediction for the game, colour and smallest rating in the pair) will show whether:

    1. Whether ELO formula is a good estimator
    2. How is it affected by the colour.
    3. How is it affected by the level of players.

    I strongly suspect that results will be different for high and lower rated players.

    ACF rating officer must have a vast database of results.

    Bill, do you want to do this exercise? Or to send data to me so I can run some statistical analysis?

  8. #8
    CC Candidate Master Glenno's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Igor_Goldenberg
    It would be an intresting experiment to see how accurate ELO formula in estimating the result. E.g a regression of result on three variables (ELO prediction for the game, colour and smallest rating in the pair) will show whether:

    1. Whether ELO formula is a good estimator
    2. How is it affected by the colour.
    3. How is it affected by the level of players.

    I strongly suspect that results will be different for high and lower rated players.

    ACF rating officer must have a vast database of results.

    Bill, do you want to do this exercise? Or to send data to me so I can run some statistical analysis?
    The website http://www.chesscenter.com/twic/even.../sonasrat.html includes a graph that displays White's percentage score in relation to the difference in the ratings.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Igor_Goldenberg
    It would be an intresting experiment to see how accurate ELO formula in estimating the result. E.g a regression of result on three variables (ELO prediction for the game, colour and smallest rating in the pair) will show whether:

    1. Whether ELO formula is a good estimator
    2. How is it affected by the colour.
    3. How is it affected by the level of players.

    I strongly suspect that results will be different for high and lower rated players.

    ACF rating officer must have a vast database of results.

    Bill, do you want to do this exercise? Or to send data to me so I can run some statistical analysis?
    I believe Bill did exactly this sort of modelling when Glicko was originally introduced, and concluded that Glicko is a far better predictor than ELO.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    I believe Bill did exactly this sort of modelling when Glicko was originally introduced, and concluded that Glicko is a far better predictor than ELO.
    As far as I understand, Glicko uses the same formula for expected result P=1/(1+pow10((D1-D2)/400)). That the one I'd like to test.
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