ACF March 2004 Ratings

[Bill Gletsos]

The ACF March 2004 rating lists have been sent to the webmaster and State Rating Officers.

Last year the ACF Council passed the following motion :"That the ACF Rating Officers are authorised to adjust the ACF ratings as they see fit to try and bring the ACF ratings more in line with the FIDE ratings. This correction to take place where determined necessary prior to or at the same time as the publication of the first ACF rating list for each calendar year."

In line with this all players December ratings were increased by 70 points prior to the calculation of the ratings for the March 2004 period.

Now someone is surely going to suggest that players lost most of the the 150 points that were added to virtually all players Dec 1999 ratings just prior to the April 2000 list. That however is not the case.

There are currently 212 FIDE rated players who have played games in the ACF System since the Dec 1999 rating period. The average ACF rating of these 212 players back in Dec 1999 after the 150 points was added was 1976.038. The average rating for this same group of 212 players in December 2003 is 1975.775. A difference of only 0.283. Therefore this indicates that there is no loss of 150 points but simply a redistribution of the points amongst the players, a situation that is to be expected.

Given the influx of many more Australians to the FIDE list over this 4 year period this has lead to an effective inflation trend in the FIDE ratings of Australian players especially those players below FM strength. It is from here that the 70 points is coming.

For the March 2004 rating period there were 80 Tournaments rated and 7818 games of which 5678 were in the ACF Classic rating system and 2140 were in the ACF Rapid rating system.

Top Players
	 2668!!  23  NSW  Rogers, Ian [GM]
	 2509!!  11  VIC  Johansen, Darryl K [GM]
	 2505!    0  NSW  Wallace, John-Paul [IM]
	 2493!!  18  NSW  Lane, Gary W [IM]
	 2458!    0  VIC  Gluzman, Michael [IM]
	 2446!!  18  QLD  Solomon, Stephen J [IM]
	 2439!   11   SA  Tao, Trevor
	 2400!!   0  VIC  Froehlich, Peter [IM]
	 2383!    0  VIC  West, Guy [IM]
	 2381!!  11   SA  Chapman, Mark [IM]
	 2380!!  11  VIC  Smerdon, David C [IM]
	 2380!!  17  NSW  Zhao, Zong-Yuan [IM]
	 2378!!  25  VIC  Bjelobrk, Igor
	 2371!!  14  VIC  Sandler, Leonid [IM]
	 2366!    0  VIC  Teichmann, Erik [FM]
	 2359!!  25  VIC  Depasquale, Chris J [FM]
	 2301!    0  NSW  Tindall, Brett [FM]
	 2297!!  37  NSW  Xie, George
	 2295!!  11  VIC  Levi, Eddy L [FM]
	 2284!!  18  NSW  Canfell, Gregory J [FM]
	 2280!!  26  VIC  Baron, Michael [FM]
	 2276!!   7  VIC  Rujevic, Mirko [FM]
	 2274!!  13  VIC  Rashid, Abdulwahab [FM]
	 2272!    0  NSW  Feldman, Vladimir [IM]
	 2271!!  11  NSW  Reilly, Tim [FM]
	 2259!    0  QLD  Stephson, David J
	 2252!    0  NSW  Cook, Roger S
	 2252!    0  NSW  Smirnov, Vladimir
	 2245!!   8  NSW  Berezina - Feldman, Irina [IM]
	 2245!    7  NSW  Flatow, A (Fred) [FM]
	 2244!    6  NSW  Kabir, Ruhul
	 2243!!  26   WA  Boyd, Tristan
	 2241!!  10   SA  Zaric, Srboljub
	 2238!!   0  VIC  Hamilton, Douglas G [FM]
	 2236!!   6  NSW  Seberry, Ralph B
	 2234!!  30  NSW  Tan, Justin
	 2204!!   0  QLD  Sorokina, Anastasia [WIM]
	 2201!    0  NSW  Bouchaaya, Tony
	 2196!!   0  NSW  Goris, Robert
	 2186!    7  NSW  Scott, Ronald
	 2184!!  17  NSW  Rej, Tomek
	 2181!    0  NSW  Hirschhorn, Jeremy K
	 2180!!  11  VIC  Hacche, David J
	 2162!    0  NSW  Ayvazyan, Armen
	 2162!!  11  VIC  Chow, Samuel
	 2159!!  19   WA  Barber, Haydn J [FM]
	 2152!    7  VIC  Partsi, Dimitry
	 2151!!  17  NSW  Yu, Ronald
	 2150!!   0  VIC  Aghamalyan, Armen
	 2149!   11  VIC  Booth, Stewart
	 2148!!  14  NSW  Rose, Adrian P
	 2145!    0   WA  McCamon, Boyd
	 2145!    0  NSW  Zirdum, Ivan
	 2142!    0  NSW  Dwyer, Danny [FM]
	 2141!    0  VIC  Woodhams, Michael V
	 2139!    0  NSW  Samar, Raul
	 2132!    0   SA  Goldsmith, Alan D
	 2128!!  18  NSW  Jones, Brian A [FM]
	 2126!!   0  NSW  Ghenzer, Charles
	 2122!    0   WA  Wilkins, Michael

[Bill Gletsos]

Top Females
	 2245!!   8  NSW  Berezina - Feldman, Irina [IM]
	 2204!!   0  QLD  Sorokina, Anastasia [WIM]
	 2102!!  11  NSW  Eriksson, Ingela
	 2098!    0   SA  Nguyen, Giang
	 1992!   12  NSW  Dekic, Biljana [WIM]
	 1950!    0  NSW  Lip, Catherine [WFM]
	 1926!    0   WA  Mills, Natalie
	 1923!    0  NSW  Klimenko, Veronica [WFM]
	 1914!    6  NSW  Moylan, Laura A [WIM]
	 1832!!   7  NSW  Lane, Nancy L [WIM]
	 1774!!  11  VIC  Szuveges, Narelle S [WFM]
	 1769!!   4  VIC  Lee, Michelle
	 1704!    6  NSW  Rogers, Cathy L
	 1704!    5  VIC  Zivanovic, Andjelija
	 1700!!  15  NSW  Huddleston, Heather
	 1663!!  17  ACT  Oliver, Shannon
	 1655!    0  NSW  Wettstein, Carla
	 1655!!  32  NSW  Song, Angela
	 1652!!  14   WA  Payne, Sophie
	 1640!   11  NSW  Shields, Sylvia

[Bill Gletsos]

Top Under 20
	 2380!!  19  VIC  Smerdon, David C
	 2380!!  17  NSW  Zhao, Zong-Yuan
	 2297!!  18  NSW  Xie, George
	 2243!!  19   WA  Boyd, Tristan
	 2234!!  18  NSW  Tan, Justin
	 2184!!  17  NSW  Rej, Tomek
	 2162!!  16  VIC  Chow, Samuel
	 2151!!  15  NSW  Yu, Ronald
	 2112!!  17  VIC  Bourmistrov, Denis
	 2098!   18   SA  Nguyen, Giang
	 2062!!  19  QLD  Humphrey, Jonathan
	 2055!!  18  VIC  Nemeth, Janos
	 2038!!  16  ACT  Jovanovic, Peter
	 1982!!  15  NSW  Lubarsky, Kostia
	 1950!   17  NSW  Lip, Catherine
	 1941!!  16  NSW  O'Chee, Kevin
	 1938!!  17  NSW  Zvedeniouk, Ilia
	 1935!!  14  VIC  Stojic, Dusan
	 1932!!  14  ACT  Wei, Michael
	 1913!!  15  NSW  Suttor, Vincent

[Bill Gletsos]

Top Under 16
	 2151!!  15  NSW  Yu, Ronald
	 1982!!  15  NSW  Lubarsky, Kostia
	 1935!!  14  VIC  Stojic, Dusan
	 1932!!  14  ACT  Wei, Michael
	 1913!!  15  NSW  Suttor, Vincent
	 1899!!  15  ACT  Oliver, Gareth
	 1843!!   9  NSW  Song, Raymond
	 1833!!  13   SA  Obst, James
	 1821!!  15  VIC  Jager, Jesse
	 1813!!  14  QLD  Barnard, Casey T
	 1805!!  12  QLD  Ly, Moulthun
	 1803!!  12  VIC  Jia, Jing Qu
	 1790!!  15  VIC  Lindberg, Douglas
	 1781!!  13  VIC  Lugo, Ruperto
	 1773!!  12  ACT  Ikeda, Junta
	 1769!!  13  VIC  Lee, Michelle
	 1744!!  14  NSW  Cronan, James
	 1723!!  15   WA  Chapman, Mark J
	 1718!!  13  QLD  Lazarus, Benjamin
	 1710!!  12  NSW  Huang, Justin

[Bill Gletsos]

Top Under 12
	 1843!!   9  NSW  Song, Raymond
	 1655!!  11  NSW  Song, Angela
	 1597!!  11  NSW  Illingworth, Max
	 1559!!  10  VIC  Lin, Zhigen Wilson
	 1503!!  11  QLD  Anderson, Daniel C
	 1494!!   9  QLD  Finke, Kelvin
	 1451!!  11  NSW  Harris, Benjamin
	 1420!    9  VIC  Morris, James
	 1416!!  11  NSW  Wu, Edwin
	 1404!   11  QLD  Xu, Mingda
	 1393!!  11  ACT  Brown, Andrew
	 1387!!  11   WA  Choong, Yita
	 1351!!  10  NSW  Miranda, Adrian
	 1328!!  10  NSW  Xu, William
	 1252!!  11  ACT  Ung, Thomas
	 1226!!  11  VIC  Ziffer, Rocheleh
	 1223!!  11  NSW  Soltysik, Adelaide
	 1217!!   9  ACT  Chow, Justin
	 1198!   11  VIC  Carey, Jamie
	 1185!!  10  VIC  Vijayakumar, Rengan

[Bill Gletsos]

Top Females Under 20
	 2098!   18   SA  Nguyen, Giang
	 1950!   17  NSW  Lip, Catherine
	 1769!!  13  VIC  Lee, Michelle
	 1704!   19  VIC  Zivanovic, Andjelija
	 1700!!  14  NSW  Huddleston, Heather
	 1663!!  17  ACT  Oliver, Shannon
	 1655!!  11  NSW  Song, Angela
	 1652!!  18   WA  Payne, Sophie
	 1640!   19  NSW  Shields, Sylvia
	 1516!!  14  NSW  Reid, Vaness
	 1485!   19  QLD  Mowles, Karina
	 1438!!  14  NSW  Harris, Rebecca
	 1420!   16  VIC  Richter, Sally-Anne
	 1375!!  14  QLD  Jule, Alexandra
	 1334!   14  ACT  Eldridge-Smith, Veronique
	 1333!   18   WA  Cassidy, Kelly
	 1324!!  13  QLD  Evans, Amy L
	 1319!!  13  VIC  Hickman, Casey
	 1268!   17  VIC  Lee, Melissa
	 1264!   17  NSW  Chu, Winnie

[Bill Gletsos]

Top Seniors
	 2245!   67  NSW  Flatow, A (Fred)
	 2241!!  64   SA  Zaric, Srboljub
	 2238!!  63  VIC  Hamilton, Douglas G
	 2126!!  66  NSW  Ghenzer, Charles
	 2050!!  76   WA  Leonhardt, Wolfgang
	 2034!!  77  NSW  Viner, Phillip J
	 2024!!  61  NSW  Capilitan, Romeo
	 1983!   66  NSW  Benson, Lachlan
	 1953!   66   SA  Riches, L John
	 1921!!  62  NSW  Gross, Mike C
	 1917!   68  NSW  Hutchings, Frank P
	 1909!!  61  NSW  Winter, George
	 1901!   63  NSW  Markovic, Milosav
	 1898!   72  NSW  Creech, Ken E
	 1861!!  65  NSW  Tulevski, Vasil G
	 1855!   82  NSW  Webb, Selwyn
	 1854!   76  ACT  Korda, Augustin
	 1844!   71  NSW  Lazaridis, Julius
	 1840!!  63  NSW  Pilja, Djuro
	 1808!   64  NSW  Macmillan, Malcolm

[Bill Gletsos]

Top Improvers
	 1833 224   SA  Obst, James
	 1227 217  NSW  Adler, Nathan
	 1390 202  NSW  Webster, David
	 1821 153  VIC  Jager, Jesse
	 1217 131  ACT  Chow, Justin
	 1242 123  VIC  Sanderson, Paul
	 1309 114  NSW  Chu, Louis
	 1716 111  VIC  Emodi, Nick
	  732 111  ACT  Flood, Christopher
	  971 110  VIC  Mihalopoulos, Jason
	 1333 108  NSW  Schuetz, Fred
	 1098 105  QLD  Grigg-Tondeleir, Samuel
	 1054 105  QLD  Fisher, Jayden
	 1583 102  QLD  Quaresmini, Harvey A
	 1370 101  VIC  Schlossberg, Jonathan
	 1137 101  NSW  Lam, David
	 1653  97   SA  Cooke, Tristrom
	 1498  96   WA  Colic, Igor
	 1504  91  QLD  Buciu, Avram
	 1856  90  VIC  Fry, Peter
	 1766  90  VIC  Hoholis, Harry
	 1755  90  NSW  Field, Andrew
	 1805  89  QLD  Ly, Moulthun
	  933  88  QLD  Kinder, Jessica
	 1394  87   WA  Humphries, Ryan
	 1795  85  NSW  Bogdanoski, Petre
	  820  83  QLD  Rynne, Tom
	 1701  83  ACT  Neeman, Jeremy
	 1946  82  QLD  Sonter, Matthew
	 1003  81  VIC  Young, Darren

[Bill Gletsos]

Busiest Players
	 1717  45  NSW  Mendes da Costa, Alex
	 1597  43  NSW  Illingworth, Max
	 1635  40  NSW  Keuning, Anthony V
	 1559  40  VIC  Lin, Zhigen Wilson
	 1821  39  VIC  Jager, Jesse
	 1943  37  NSW  Peters, Duncan
	 2297  37  NSW  Xie, George
	 2009  37  VIC  Dragicevic, Domagoj
	 1817  33  NSW  Yu, Michael
	 2006  33  VIC  Dizdarevic, Mehmedalija
	 1965  32  NSW  Harp, Joel
	 1655  32  NSW  Song, Angela
	 1843  31  NSW  Song, Raymond
	 1833  31  VIC  Frost, Peter
	 1738  31   WA  Fedec, John
	 2063  30  NSW  Lip, Michael
	 2106  30  NSW  Charles, Gareth
	 2234  30  NSW  Tan, Justin
	 1938  30  NSW  Zvedeniouk, Ilia
	 1265  28  NSW  Parker, Trent
	 1805  28  QLD  Ly, Moulthun
	 1394  28   WA  Humphries, Ryan
	 1431  27  VIC  Reuben, Des
	 1654  26  NSW  Escribano, Jose
	 1710  26  NSW  Huang, Justin
	 1416  26  NSW  Wu, Edwin
	 1328  26  NSW  Xu, William
	 1432  26  NSW  Tse, Jeffrey
	 1011  26  NSW  Ng, Deborah
	 1375  26  NSW  Boyce, Jamie
	 2280  26  VIC  Baron, Michael
	 1319  26  VIC  Hickman, Casey
	 1282  26  VIC  Mustafa, Metin
	 2243  26   WA  Boyd, Tristan
	 2012  25  NSW  Wright, Neil S
	 1861  25  NSW  Yap, Aaron
	 2359  25  VIC  Depasquale, Chris J
	 1790  25  VIC  Lindberg, Douglas
	 2378  25  VIC  Bjelobrk, Igor
	 1424  25  VIC  Kerksal, David

[Rincewind]

I assume the top improvers delta score does not have the 70 point increase included. (considering the last the list is only just clearing 70 by 8 points)

[Bill Gletsos]

You should think of it as starting out with your Dec 2003 rating plus 70 points. Then all the March ratings are calculated.

[Cat]

Dear Bill

Having been sometimes somewhat critical of the ratings over the last 12 months, I'd like to congratulate you on the huge improvements you've initiated. Your defence of the Glicko system was admirable and you have indeed been vindicated in demonstrating that the system can be brought up to scratch

Congratulations to Ian Rogers too, whose outstanding victories have won him a truely amazing rating

Obviously I haven't seen the entire list for the Gold Coast, but the omens seem good. It would appear my own rating would have increased almost 200 points since November without playing a game - now that's what I call chess!

There is now a real prospect that our juniors can gain some dynamic movement in their ratings over the next 6-12 months and a chance that the higher rated players can feel confident of competing locally without being punished.

I guess the goal now will be to ensure these improvements are maintained beyond the next 6-12 months. There are some areas I feel may need further attention;

Regional variation You have said previously that you were sceptical that regional variation existed to any large extent. This may be so, but a simple check by cross-correlating regions using Sydney as 'ground zero' would be an insurance against what Matt termed as 'speciation'. This would ensure some stability for those players near the top end of the regional pool and allow regions like Box Hill and ACT (who have a large junior pool and may be in danger of regional 'compaction') some bouyancy. This would also assist those talented, enthusiastic isolated juniors, who perform well in major competitions in places like Brisbane and the Gold Coast, only to find their rating improvements are lost when they lose the odd game to an under-rated junior in their own town.

Special attention In regions such as Box Hill and the ACT where large numbers of rapidly improving juniors are entering the rating system there is a drag effect from the disproportionally large junior pool and small adult pool. As these juniors start to play frequently and they obtain very stable ratings there is a reverse migration effect from the adult rating level to the junior. As these regions are probably the most fertile spawning grounds for future champions, it is essential we maintain rating fluidity in the junior pool and stability in the adult pool. I would suggest these regions get special attention to ensure their ratings are reasonably accurately represented in real time. Its true that periodic corrections of 150 points every 3-4 years will ease the problem, but 3-4 years is a long time in the life of a 10 year old and a lot of disaffection can be generated in the interim.

Best wishes


David.

[Bill Gletsos]

Dear Bill

Having been sometimes somewhat critical of the ratings over the last 12 months, I'd like to congratulate you on the huge improvements you've initiated. Your defence of the Glicko system was admirable and you have indeed been vindicated in demonstrating that the system can be brought up to scratch

Thanks.

Congratulations to Ian Rogers too, whose outstanding victories have won him a truely amazing rating

Ian may be embarressed by his rating but Graham Saint and I feel it is entirely justified. If no one had received the 70 point increase he would have still been nearly 160 points above his nearest rival. Back in April 2000 when we gave everyone 150 points and Ian zero we did this because evidence showed his ACF rating was inflated. This is definately not the case now. He deserves the 70 points. To not give them to him would distort the parity.

Obviously I haven't seen the entire list for the Gold Coast, but the omens seem good. It would appear my own rating would have increased almost 200 points since November without playing a game - now that's what I call chess!

I realise your being a little michevious here so I wont bite.

There is now a real prospect that our juniors can gain some dynamic movement in their ratings over the next 6-12 months and a chance that the higher rated players can feel confident of competing locally without being punished.

I guess the goal now will be to ensure these improvements are maintained beyond the next 6-12 months. There are some areas I feel may need further attention;

We will just have to see what happens. I demand evidence rather than speculation.

Regional variation You have said previously that you were sceptical that regional variation existed to any large extent. This may be so, but a simple check by cross-correlating regions using Sydney as 'ground zero' would be an insurance against what Matt termed as 'speciation'. This would ensure some stability for those players near the top end of the regional pool and allow regions like Box Hill and ACT (who have a large junior pool and may be in danger of regional 'compaction') some bouyancy. This would also assist those talented, enthusiastic isolated juniors, who perform well in major competitions in places like Brisbane and the Gold Coast, only to find their rating improvements are lost when they lose the odd game to an under-rated junior in their own town.

We will have to wait and see what happens in the ACT now. We think the problem that the ACT had should not re-occur. As for Box Hill all the examples starter quoted were found to be unfounded when examined.

Special attention In regions such as Box Hill and the ACT where large numbers of rapidly improving juniors are entering the rating system there is a drag effect from the disproportionally large junior pool and small adult pool. As these juniors start to play frequently and they obtain very stable ratings there is a reverse migration effect from the adult rating level to the junior. As these regions are probably the most fertile spawning grounds for future champions, it is essential we maintain rating fluidity in the junior pool and stability in the adult pool. I would suggest these regions get special attention to ensure their ratings are reasonably accurately represented in real time.

The evidence does not necessarily support this. Large numbers of juniors maybe entering the pool but that does not equate to a large number of rapidly improving juniors entering the pool.

If juniors show a sudden change in underlying strength the Glicko2 will handle it.

Its true that periodic corrections of 150 points every 3-4 years will ease the problem, but 3-4 years is a long time in the life of a 10 year old and a lot of disaffection can be generated in the interim.

The 150 points issue has nothing to do with any of this. If every player receives the same increase it makes no difference to relative rating, hence it makes no difference to expected results.

Having said all of the above, I'll make the following observations.

In the FIDE pool regional variations based on country/zones is evident. Except for players at the top end of the FIDE list (I would estimate above 2300) I supect there is relatively little correlation between a 2000 FIDE rated aussie, a 2000 FIDE rated American or a 2000 FIDE rated Russian.

FIDE appear to do nothing to handle regional variation.

Like wise regional variation does not appear to be taken into consideration in any of the worlds ratings systems. It doesnt happen in the US or England.

Now that does not mean it shouldnt happen, it just means it currently doesnt happen. I suspect the main reason is lack of correlating data.

As for special treatment of juniors, I notice the USCF who has a massive number of as they call them "scholastic players" does absolutely nothign to effect their ratings. they all are subject to the standard ratings calculations.
Again this appears to be due to the fact that all juniors improve or dont improve at totally different rates and stages .

[Rincewind]

Perhaps this 70 points adjustment was going through Bill's head even then. However, me personally it should affect me too much. If my rating hits 1750 in March as I estimate, an extra 70 points will only put me at 1820. So I will still be able to play board 1 provided we don't have any other over 1800 players in the team. But it would probably force our previous board 1 up to the next grade.

I rating came in within 2 points of the prediction (1822) so the amazing Glicko Estimator comes through again.

Unfortnuately last year's team now have 3 team members over 1800, so it won't be so easy this year.

[Bill Gletsos]

Everyone please note that an ACT tournament was missing from the ratings. The ratings have been reprocessed and the changes reflected in the lists at the start of this thread.