Upsets

[pax]

Rd 1:
Moulthun beat Wohl, Obst beat Goldenberg, Moylan beat Canfell, Song drew with Xie (with black), Caoili drew with Johansen (also with black). That's a very exciting start to a 15 board swiss (in contrast to the Junior U18 where every game went to rating).

Lets see - that's a 3.5/8 start to players rated under 2150 ACF (against average opposition around 2350) - not too shabby!!

[PHAT]

What was the competitive index on this particular junk round, starter

[Phil Bourke]

Not surprised about Song gaining a draw with Xie, he did beat me at Coffs this year
Seriously, he is a talented junior, and it will be interesting to see how he goes later today against Johansen.
Johansen's draw was a good dogfight, and congrats to Caoili for her effort.
The top two seeds had hard fights for the full point as well, it augers well for the rest of the tourney.
One good thing about a 7 round swiss, puts the pressure on the players to get the wins, no weak arsed 10 move draws

[Garvinator]

One good thing about a 7 round swiss, puts the pressure on the players to get the wins, no weak arsed 10 move draws

except that this tournament is a 11 round swiss.

[Phil Bourke]

True More speed, less haste
Should still keep the players trying for the wins though, as a couple of draws would see you a point off the pace and maybe not getting an opportunity to peg the leader/s back.

[ursogr8]

What was the competitive index on this particular junk round, starter

Competitve index for this round (1) of the Championship was 278.8 (using the first rating quoted).

This is essentially a DIVISIONALISED tournament and, as such, no junk round would be expected. Hence the UPSETS should come as no surprise.

starter

[Kevin Bonham]

Competitve index for this round (1) of the Championship was 278.8 (using the first rating quoted).

This is essentially a DIVISIONALISED tournament and, as such, no junk round would be expected. Hence the UPSETS should come as no surprise.

starter

But four points of upsets from 15 games for an average rating difference of 278.8 is surprising.

278.8 is a mean performance expectancy of about .17 for the lower rated player per game, or 2.55 for the 15 lower rated players combined.

Of course the difference between 2.55/15 and 4/15 is not statistically meaningful. However it is notable that three of those considered not worthy of a place by various juniorphobes and sundry restrictivists and antisubjectivists on the board were off the mark in round 1!

[ursogr8]

But four points of upsets from 15 games for an average rating difference of 278.8 is surprising.

Barry finished the thread discussion on the criteria to declare a result a 'surprise'. I will leave him to rule on your measure (if he wishes, of course).

278.8 is a mean performance expectancy of about .17 for the lower rated player per game, or 2.55 for the 15 lower rated players combined.

Agreed.

Of course the difference between 2.55/15 and 4/15 is not statistically meaningful.

Agreed.

However it is notable that three of those considered not worthy of a place by various juniorphobes and sundry restrictivists and antisubjectivists on the board were off the mark in round 1!

I don't know what any of these words mean < juniorphobes and sundry restrictivists and antisubjectivists>, but I don't think any included me.

regards
starter

ps To MODs, my original response to Matt's question posted in this thread because that is where the request was posted.

[Kevin Bonham]

I don't know what any of these words mean < juniorphobes and sundry restrictivists and antisubjectivists>, but I don't think any included me.

No, they didn't.

[ursogr8]

Competitve indices for the rounds (1, 2) of the Championship were 278.8, 196 .


starter

[Frank Walker]

Yesterday, I saw a kid drawing against a WFM.
He was up a pawn though, I think...

[Frank Walker]

Devraj B. vs Shannon O.

[pax]

Fewer upsets in the Championship in Rd 2.

Jay Lakner beating Kegless was the biggie (have a look at the neat finish). James Obst beating Arianne is a bigger upset on paper, but actually didn't surprise me so much. The GM draws on 1 and 3 definitely don't count as upsets!

PGN Viewer

 

[auriga]

Fewer upsets in the Championship in Rd 2.
[White "Canfell, Greg"]
[Black "Lakner, Jay"]

neat finish!

[bobby1972]

Does Any One Have The Rest Of The Ly-wohl Game