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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Igor_Goldenberg
    Like Greens?
    Indeed, many people will vote for the Greens based on environmental policy alone and ignore other aspects of their platform.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    Indeed, many people will vote for the Greens based on environmental policy alone and ignore other aspects of their platform.
    I think their environmental policy is as sound as their other policies.
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  3. #63
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    The Greens are the likely recipients of former Democrat votes as the latter party disappears from politics.
    I have done some analysis on this from time to time and the Greens do not pick up ex-Democrat votes as effectively as might be thought, at least not anymore.

    In my experience of the Democrats (a party I never joined but used to follow pretty closely - eg I scrutineered for the late Robert Bell when he won the final Tassie senate seat by about 3200 votes in 1990 after being written off by various incompetent journalists) their support base used to come in three types:

    (i) Middle-class, small-l liberal centrists who generally sit between the two major parties.
    (ii) Old-fashioned progressive environmentalists who were similar to Greens in their political view but differed in style - more interested in debate, detail and procedure than publicity, activism and stunts.
    (iii) Bright, tertiary-educated JJJ/ABC listening youngish euro-leftist suburbanites

    Group (ii) were the first to leave and some of them eventually switched to the Greens while quite a lot of them became eco-contrarians who are now actively anti-Green.

    Group (iii) have generally switched to Labor.

    Group (i) are the last to leave the sinking ship and are going all over the place

    A good example of the relative failure of the Greens to capitalise on the Democrat implosion was in the Tassie senate race in 2004, when despite the Democrat vote crashing from 4.6% to 0.9%, the Green vote also went backwards!

    As a national average I believe the Greens are picking up not more than half of the departing Democrats vote.

    Another factor is that fighting between the two parties in the early 90s has left many Democrats very bitter about the Greens and reluctant to ever vote for them. During some of the fights that used to go on one senior Democrat faction-hack told me "The Greens are our enemies, we must destroy them".

  4. #64
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    Thanx KB; that's useful info.
    “If Algeria introduced a resolution declaring that the earth was flat and that Israel had flattened it, it would pass by a vote of 164 to 13 with 26 abstentions.” — Abba Eban on the UN general assembly

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  5. #65
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    ... after being written off by various incompetent journalists ...
    Another group with a propensity for boobery and opinions on many things without any a/c/t/u/a/l experience of a/n/y/t/h/i/n/g.

    Of course, if they could remain within their remit of balanced reporting, then I would assess their ability solely on that. However, many have opened the door on their opinions, I'm happy to slam it in their face

    OK, everybody carry on.
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  6. #66
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    I hereby remit one Gunner Duggan 20 of his quasi eponymous monetary units for the use of the bolded word though as a noun in his example
    .

  7. #67
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    Another group with a propensity for boobery and opinions on many things without any a/c/t/u/a/l experience of a/n/y/t/h/i/n/g.
    It's no accident that leftist ideas proliferate in the newsroom and academia, where ideas don't actually have to work to survive.
    “If Algeria introduced a resolution declaring that the earth was flat and that Israel had flattened it, it would pass by a vote of 164 to 13 with 26 abstentions.” — Abba Eban on the UN general assembly

    “You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. We must be cautious.” — Obi-Wan Kenobi on the UN kakistocracy

  8. #68
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    It is hard to see any forces other than Labour and Liblrals influencing Auzzie politics seriously in a forseeble future
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  9. #69
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    In this case I was referring to incompetence in calling elections, not to political bias. In multi-member elections (such as the Senate) journalists very often make basic errors in working out who is likely to win even when they have the primary vote figures in front of them. This sort of stuff actually is pretty tricky and they tend to make basic errors like overlooking the impact of leakage. In the Bell case I had done calculations on election night showing Bell as 85% likely to win but papers the next day said he appeared to have lost.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    In this case I was referring to incompetence in calling elections, not to political bias.
    I've heard that before my time in QLD, journalists often predicted a Joh loss from polls. Exit polls in the US last Presidential election supposedly had the flip-flopper winning.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    In multi-member elections (such as the Senate) journalists very often make basic errors in working out who is likely to win even when they have the primary vote figures in front of them. This sort of stuff actually is pretty tricky and they tend to make basic errors like overlooking the impact of leakage. In the Bell case I had done calculations on election night showing Bell as 85% likely to win but papers the next day said he appeared to have lost.
    How do you calculate the proportion of voters who ignore the how-to-vote cards?
    “If Algeria introduced a resolution declaring that the earth was flat and that Israel had flattened it, it would pass by a vote of 164 to 13 with 26 abstentions.” — Abba Eban on the UN general assembly

    “You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. We must be cautious.” — Obi-Wan Kenobi on the UN kakistocracy

  11. #71
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono
    I've heard that before my time in QLD, journalists often predicted a Joh loss from polls.
    Joh had a massive advantage from malapportionment and hence would often win when polling miserably.

    Exit polls in the US last Presidential election supposedly had the flip-flopper winning.
    They did and there is still considerable debate about why they got it wrong. There are some who argue that the exit poll result was actually within the true margin of error, some who argue that there were errors in sampling methods, and some who argue that the exit poll was correct but the election counts (eg those using electronic voting) were wrong. I doubt we'll ever know.

    How do you calculate the proportion of voters who ignore the how-to-vote cards?
    Past experience is the best guide in this respect. It's a better guide than trying to second-guess it based on policy attitudes because voters' perceptions don't always align with those.

  12. #72
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    (iii) Bright, tertiary-educated JJJ/ABC listening youngish euro-leftist suburbanites
    Present! and this would probably be sitting under my name in place of "Rearranged Pond Scum" right now if it were a bit shorter.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boris
    Present! and this would probably be sitting under my name in place of "Rearranged Pond Scum" right now if it were a bit shorter.
    put it in your signature perhaps ...
    .

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    A good example of the relative failure of the Greens to capitalise on the Democrat implosion was in the Tassie senate race in 2004, when despite the Democrat vote crashing from 4.6% to 0.9%, the Green vote also went backwards!
    I don't think that particular election result can be regarded as a national indication - the logging issue played rather strongly anti-Green (and anti-Labor) in the lead-up to the election.

  15. #75
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    I don't think that particular election result can be regarded as a national indication - the logging issue played rather strongly anti-Green (and anti-Labor) in the lead-up to the election.
    It was certainly anti-Labor but the only extent to which it was anti-Green was that Labor's forests policy was so green that Labor probably took some votes off the Greens, while losing a few times that many to the Liberals. Ritual forest conflict has been one of the major issues in Tasmanian politics for 20 years and if forest issues were going to cost Greens in Tasmania that many votes it would have happened a long time before now.

    Yes, Tasmania was an extreme example, but nationally in the House of Reps there was a 4.2% swing against the Dems and only 2.2% to the Greens. In the Senate the Dems crashed nationally from 7.7% to 2.1% and the Greens only managed to pick up 2.8%.

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