Predictions

[Frank Walker]

Any predictions on who will win / major contendors?

[pax]

It's hard to go past Ian Rogers. It's a few years since he last won it, so I'm sure he will be motivated - after all, he won't want Darryl to get too far ahead on the all time Champs list. That said, it would be great to see a win by one of the IMs - especially since it would probably take a GM norm to do it.

[Frank Walker]

These are just my predictions for the current entrants, there will obviously be much more.
All entrants available at http://www.*******2006.com/players.htm
In some category there are not enough entrants but I will pick my fav

My Predictions

Championships: Chandler, Murray GM ENG 2542 249 BCF*
Major: Marner, Gavin NZL 1975 2044 NZCF
Senior: Lovejoy, David QLD 2044 1778
Minor: Low, Brandon SA 932
Aus Rapid: Davidovici, Victor QLD 1861
Aus Lightning: Ly, Moulthun QLD 2117 2071

Aus Junior: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
Under 12: Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1450 / James Morris (If he is playing)
Australian Girls: Oliver, Tamzin U16 ACT 1242 / Russel Luthiem (If playing)/ Sally Yu (If Playing)
Girls Under 12: Simmonds, Leteisha U10 QLD unr (Only player)
Junior Rapid: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
Junior Lightning: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071 / Rukman Vijaykumar (if playing)

[jenni]

Won't comment too much on the adult side, although I agree Moulthun could win the Lightning. However there will be plenty of competition for him.

Junior events are fiendishly hard to pick. I would say the Under 18 could be won by any one of about 5 kids, with another 6 as serious contenders. Moulthun, Vincent Suttor, Junta Ikeda, Ronald Yu, James Obst would be my favourites (and Gareth of course )

Under 12 will be interesting. With neither James Morris or Eugene Schon likely to play the under 12, I think it will be a tussle between ACT players Yi Yuan and Edward Xing.

The girls is anyone's guess - they all stress so much, that it often becomes very random. I understand that Sally Yu will play the Under 18, rather than the under 12 and Emma Guo might do the same. This leaves the under 12 pretty open to a new star. In the under 18, Vaness will be a contender if she plays (and maybe Bec Harris will play again?). Alex Jule is a tough player and probably under performed in Mt Buller this year. Dark horses are Tamzin, Jessica Kinder and Luthien Russell. Molly McGarity can perform very well and she never seems to stress, so will have an advantage. Sophie Eustace has had a big increase in rating, but I don't have a great feel for her strength at the moment. Kayleigh, Sally, Emma and Sophie are all capable of very good tournaments.

[Alan Shore]

These are just my predictions for the current entrants, there will obviously be much more.
All entrants available at http://www.*******2006.com/players.htm
In some category there are not enough entrants but I will pick my fav

My Predictions

Championships: Chandler, Murray GM ENG 2542 249 BCF*
Major: Marner, Gavin NZL 1975 2044 NZCF
Senior: Lovejoy, David QLD 2044 1778
Minor: Low, Brandon SA 932
Aus Rapid: Davidovici, Victor QLD 1861
Aus Lightning: Ly, Moulthun QLD 2117 2071

Aus Junior: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
Under 12: Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1450 / James Morris (If he is playing)
Australian Girls: Oliver, Tamzin U16 ACT 1242 / Russel Luthiem (If playing)/ Sally Yu (If Playing)
Girls Under 12: Simmonds, Leteisha U10 QLD unr (Only player)
Junior Rapid: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
Junior Lightning: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071 / Rukman Vijaykumar (if playing)

LOL, where'd you drag Victor from!?

I'm friends with his son, so I'll pass on the news.. haha.

[Vlad]

These are just my predictions for the current entrants, there will obviously be much more.
All entrants available at http://www.*******2006.com/players.htm
In some category there are not enough entrants but I will pick my fav

My Predictions

Championships: Chandler, Murray GM ENG 2542 249 BCF*
Major: Marner, Gavin NZL 1975 2044 NZCF
Senior: Lovejoy, David QLD 2044 1778
Minor: Low, Brandon SA 932
Aus Rapid: Davidovici, Victor QLD 1861
Aus Lightning: Ly, Moulthun QLD 2117 2071

Aus Junior: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
Under 12: Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1450 / James Morris (If he is playing)
Australian Girls: Oliver, Tamzin U16 ACT 1242 / Russel Luthiem (If playing)/ Sally Yu (If Playing)
Girls Under 12: Simmonds, Leteisha U10 QLD unr (Only player)
Junior Rapid: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
Junior Lightning: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071 / Rukman Vijaykumar (if playing)

You seem to be from QLD, aren't you? I think there is no more than 20% chance that just one adult competition will be won by a QLD player, while you are saying 3 out of 6. In addition, 4 out of 6 junior competitions. I start thinking maybe I should move to QLD because the best australian chess players must be there.

[Frank Walker]

No i am victorian.

[pax]

And Moulthun will need to pull off a superhuman feat to win both the Lightning and the Junior Lightning (which are simultaneous).

[Frank Walker]

Oh, sorry about that

[four four two]

Well the kid is FAST.

[Oepty]

Won't comment too much on the adult side, although I agree Moulthun could win the Lightning. However there will be plenty of competition for him.

Junior events are fiendishly hard to pick. I would say the Under 18 could be won by any one of about 5 kids, with another 6 as serious contenders. Moulthun, Vincent Suttor, Junta Ikeda, Ronald Yu, James Obst would be my favourites (and Gareth of course )

Under 12 will be interesting. With neither James Morris or Eugene Schon likely to play the under 12, I think it will be a tussle between ACT players Yi Yuan and Edward Xing.

The girls is anyone's guess - they all stress so much, that it often becomes very random. I understand that Sally Yu will play the Under 18, rather than the under 12 and Emma Guo might do the same. This leaves the under 12 pretty open to a new star. In the under 18, Vaness will be a contender if she plays (and maybe Bec Harris will play again?). Alex Jule is a tough player and probably under performed in Mt Buller this year. Dark horses are Tamzin, Jessica Kinder and Luthien Russell. Molly McGarity can perform very well and she never seems to stress, so will have an advantage. Sophie Eustace has had a big increase in rating, but I don't have a great feel for her strength at the moment. Kayleigh, Sally, Emma and Sophie are all capable of very good tournaments.

I think Sophie Eustace is still a little bit weaker than Alex Jule, Vaness Reid and Bec Harris, so I would not give her much of a chance of winning if more than one of that group plays. She probably has as much chance as anyone outside that group though.
I also believe Heather Huddleston and Angela Song still qualify. Any thoughts on whether they might play.
Scott

[four four two]

I hope Angela plays the major,the stronger the field the better she will become.

[jenni]

I think Sophie Eustace is still a little bit weaker than Alex Jule, Vaness Reid and Bec Harris, so I would not give her much of a chance of winning if more than one of that group plays. She probably has as much chance as anyone outside that group though.
I also believe Heather Huddleston and Angela Song still qualify. Any thoughts on whether they might play.
Scott

Apart from Schools chess you won't see Heather play again until she finishes year 12.

Angela I am fairly certain will play the Open under 18. She is still eligible for the Open under 14 title, which should make it quite interesting.

[firegoat7]

ChessGuru to not play because he cannot get a super guru norm


cheers Fg7

[Frank Walker]

The field is starting to take shape, these are the predictions according to the latest field.

Championships:
Ftacnik, Lubomir GM SVK 2612 2690
Rogers, Ian GM NSW 2556 2631
Chandler, Murray GM ENG 2537 249 BCF

Major:
Tredinnick, Malcolm NSW 2172 2073
Milligan, Helen WFM SCO 2045 159 BCF*
Dizdarevic, Mehmedalija VIC 2122 2014

Senior (I really hope there are more people):
Viner, Phil NSW 2147 1971
Krstic, Slobodan VIC 2065 1928
Lovejoy, David QLD 2038 1730

Minor:
FitzPatrick, Andrew VIC 1742
Weller, Tony QLD 1781
Wilkinson, Leo QLD 1733

Open Rapid:
Goldenberg, Igor VIC 2315
Dizdarevic, Mehmedalija VIC 1853
Wongwichit, Phachara QLD 1862

U1800 Rapid:
Guo-Yuthok, Sherab ACT 1610
Hackenschmidt-Uecker, Jorg QLD 1708
Bruck, Patrick QLD 1690

U1600 Rapid:
Lehane, Dominic QLD 1588
Sretenovic, Lazar QLD 1569
Stewart, Craig QLD 1504

U1300 Rapid:
Waters, Mick QLD 1295
Hunter, Shayne QLD 1235
Gilpin, Matthew QLD 1235

Lightning:
Ly, Moulthun QLD 1998
Bjelobrk, Igor NSW 2408
Goldenberg, Igor VIC 2315

U18:
Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2148
Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 2032
Yu, Ronald U18 NSW 2100

U16:
Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2148
Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 2032
Song, Angela U14 NSW 1936

U14:
Song, Angela U14 NSW 1936
Morris, James U14 VIC 1680
Illingworth, Max U14 NSW 1786

U12:
Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1574
Finke, Kelvin U12 QLD 1526
Antolis, Cedric U12 VIC 1550

U10:
Grossman, Alex U10 VIC 1351 USCF
Lau, Joshua U10 NSW 1047
Stahnke, Alex U10 QLD 1090

Girls:

U18:
Jule, Alexandra U18 QLD 1553
Yu, Sally U14 VIC 1165
Ikeda, Miona U18 ACT 1285

U16:
Yu, Sally U14 VIC 1165
Eustace, Sophie U14 SA 1205
Oliver, Tamzin U16 ACT 1250

U14:
Yu, Sally U14 VIC 1165
Eustace, Sophie U14 SA 1205
Ng, Deborah U14 NSW 1242

U12:
Guo, Emma U12 ACT 1197
Setiabudi, Megan U10 ACT 785
QLD 1437 Knapp, Katrina U12 SA 726

U10 (Hopefully more):
Setiabudi, Megan U10 ACT 785
Simmonds, Leteisha U10 QLD unr
Shan, Caroline U10 NSW 183

Australian Junior Rapid:

U18:
Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 1998
Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
Morris, Michael U18 NSW 1915

U16:
Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 1998
Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
Anderson, Daniel U14 QLD 1640

U14:
Anderson, Daniel U14 QLD 1640
Yu, Derek U14 VIC 1384
Lei, Yitao U14 QLD 1336

Open:
Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 1998
Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
Morris, Michael U18 NSW 1915

U1400?:
Yu, Derek U14 VIC 1384
Lei, Yitao U14 QLD 1336
Liang, Bob U18 NSW 1307

U1100?:
Tang, Jason U14 VIC 1021
Posner, Daniel U14 QLD 1059
Sunarjana, Damien U14 QLD 1028

U800?:
McCook, Jake U12 ACT 792
Bhattacharya, Devraj U14 VIC 717
Lam, Alan U10 QLD 668


Lightning:

U18:
Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
Morris, Michael U18 NSW 1915
Cronan, James U18 NSW 1783

U16:
Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
Anderson, Daniel U14 QLD 1640
Cooke, Steven U16 QLD 1510

U14:
Anderson, Daniel U14 QLD 1640
Finke, Kelvin U12 QLD 1411
Wu, Edwin U14 NSW 1400

U12:
Finke, Kelvin U12 QLD 1411
Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1174
Guo, Emma U12 ACT 1115

Open:

Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
Morris, Michael U18 NSW 1915
Cronan, James U18 NSW 1783

U1400?:
Wu, Edwin U14 NSW 1400
Yu, Derek U14 VIC 1384
Lei, Yitao U14 QLD 1336

U1200?:
Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1174
Lee, Leoma U14 QLD 1141
Chow, Justin U14 ACT 1133

U800?:
McCook, Jake U12 ACT 792
Baines, Casey U12 ACT 755
Bhattacharya, Devraj U14 VIC 717