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Thread: Predictions

  1. #1
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    Predictions

    Any predictions on who will win / major contendors?

  2. #2
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    It's hard to go past Ian Rogers. It's a few years since he last won it, so I'm sure he will be motivated - after all, he won't want Darryl to get too far ahead on the all time Champs list. That said, it would be great to see a win by one of the IMs - especially since it would probably take a GM norm to do it.

  3. #3
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    These are just my predictions for the current entrants, there will obviously be much more.
    All entrants available at http://www.ozchess2006.com/players.htm
    In some category there are not enough entrants but I will pick my fav

    My Predictions

    Championships: Chandler, Murray GM ENG 2542 249 BCF*
    Major: Marner, Gavin NZL 1975 2044 NZCF
    Senior: Lovejoy, David QLD 2044 1778
    Minor: Low, Brandon SA 932
    Aus Rapid: Davidovici, Victor QLD 1861
    Aus Lightning: Ly, Moulthun QLD 2117 2071

    Aus Junior: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
    Under 12: Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1450 / James Morris (If he is playing)
    Australian Girls: Oliver, Tamzin U16 ACT 1242 / Russel Luthiem (If playing)/ Sally Yu (If Playing)
    Girls Under 12: Simmonds, Leteisha U10 QLD unr (Only player)
    Junior Rapid: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
    Junior Lightning: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071 / Rukman Vijaykumar (if playing)
    Last edited by Frank Walker; 27-09-2005 at 05:39 PM. Reason: Spelling of Vijaykumar

  4. #4
    Account Suspended jenni's Avatar
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    Won't comment too much on the adult side, although I agree Moulthun could win the Lightning. However there will be plenty of competition for him.

    Junior events are fiendishly hard to pick. I would say the Under 18 could be won by any one of about 5 kids, with another 6 as serious contenders. Moulthun, Vincent Suttor, Junta Ikeda, Ronald Yu, James Obst would be my favourites (and Gareth of course )

    Under 12 will be interesting. With neither James Morris or Eugene Schon likely to play the under 12, I think it will be a tussle between ACT players Yi Yuan and Edward Xing.

    The girls is anyone's guess - they all stress so much, that it often becomes very random. I understand that Sally Yu will play the Under 18, rather than the under 12 and Emma Guo might do the same. This leaves the under 12 pretty open to a new star. In the under 18, Vaness will be a contender if she plays (and maybe Bec Harris will play again?). Alex Jule is a tough player and probably under performed in Mt Buller this year. Dark horses are Tamzin, Jessica Kinder and Luthien Russell. Molly McGarity can perform very well and she never seems to stress, so will have an advantage. Sophie Eustace has had a big increase in rating, but I don't have a great feel for her strength at the moment. Kayleigh, Sally, Emma and Sophie are all capable of very good tournaments.

  5. #5
    CC Grandmaster Alan Shore's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Walker
    These are just my predictions for the current entrants, there will obviously be much more.
    All entrants available at http://www.ozchess2006.com/players.htm
    In some category there are not enough entrants but I will pick my fav

    My Predictions

    Championships: Chandler, Murray GM ENG 2542 249 BCF*
    Major: Marner, Gavin NZL 1975 2044 NZCF
    Senior: Lovejoy, David QLD 2044 1778
    Minor: Low, Brandon SA 932
    Aus Rapid: Davidovici, Victor QLD 1861
    Aus Lightning: Ly, Moulthun QLD 2117 2071

    Aus Junior: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
    Under 12: Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1450 / James Morris (If he is playing)
    Australian Girls: Oliver, Tamzin U16 ACT 1242 / Russel Luthiem (If playing)/ Sally Yu (If Playing)
    Girls Under 12: Simmonds, Leteisha U10 QLD unr (Only player)
    Junior Rapid: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
    Junior Lightning: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071 / Rukman Vijaykumar (if playing)
    LOL, where'd you drag Victor from!?

    I'm friends with his son, so I'll pass on the news.. haha.
    "I can't go back to yesterday because I was a different person then."
    - White Queen, Alice through the Looking-Glass

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Walker
    These are just my predictions for the current entrants, there will obviously be much more.
    All entrants available at http://www.ozchess2006.com/players.htm
    In some category there are not enough entrants but I will pick my fav

    My Predictions

    Championships: Chandler, Murray GM ENG 2542 249 BCF*
    Major: Marner, Gavin NZL 1975 2044 NZCF
    Senior: Lovejoy, David QLD 2044 1778
    Minor: Low, Brandon SA 932
    Aus Rapid: Davidovici, Victor QLD 1861
    Aus Lightning: Ly, Moulthun QLD 2117 2071

    Aus Junior: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
    Under 12: Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1450 / James Morris (If he is playing)
    Australian Girls: Oliver, Tamzin U16 ACT 1242 / Russel Luthiem (If playing)/ Sally Yu (If Playing)
    Girls Under 12: Simmonds, Leteisha U10 QLD unr (Only player)
    Junior Rapid: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071
    Junior Lightning: Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2071 / Rukman Vijaykumar (if playing)
    You seem to be from QLD, aren't you? I think there is no more than 20% chance that just one adult competition will be won by a QLD player, while you are saying 3 out of 6. In addition, 4 out of 6 junior competitions. I start thinking maybe I should move to QLD because the best australian chess players must be there.

  7. #7
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    No i am victorian.

  8. #8
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    And Moulthun will need to pull off a superhuman feat to win both the Lightning and the Junior Lightning (which are simultaneous).

  9. #9
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    Oh, sorry about that

  10. #10
    CC International Master four four two's Avatar
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    Well the kid is FAST.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by jenni
    Won't comment too much on the adult side, although I agree Moulthun could win the Lightning. However there will be plenty of competition for him.

    Junior events are fiendishly hard to pick. I would say the Under 18 could be won by any one of about 5 kids, with another 6 as serious contenders. Moulthun, Vincent Suttor, Junta Ikeda, Ronald Yu, James Obst would be my favourites (and Gareth of course )

    Under 12 will be interesting. With neither James Morris or Eugene Schon likely to play the under 12, I think it will be a tussle between ACT players Yi Yuan and Edward Xing.

    The girls is anyone's guess - they all stress so much, that it often becomes very random. I understand that Sally Yu will play the Under 18, rather than the under 12 and Emma Guo might do the same. This leaves the under 12 pretty open to a new star. In the under 18, Vaness will be a contender if she plays (and maybe Bec Harris will play again?). Alex Jule is a tough player and probably under performed in Mt Buller this year. Dark horses are Tamzin, Jessica Kinder and Luthien Russell. Molly McGarity can perform very well and she never seems to stress, so will have an advantage. Sophie Eustace has had a big increase in rating, but I don't have a great feel for her strength at the moment. Kayleigh, Sally, Emma and Sophie are all capable of very good tournaments.
    I think Sophie Eustace is still a little bit weaker than Alex Jule, Vaness Reid and Bec Harris, so I would not give her much of a chance of winning if more than one of that group plays. She probably has as much chance as anyone outside that group though.
    I also believe Heather Huddleston and Angela Song still qualify. Any thoughts on whether they might play.
    Scott

  12. #12
    CC International Master four four two's Avatar
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    I hope Angela plays the major,the stronger the field the better she will become.

  13. #13
    Account Suspended jenni's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freddy
    I think Sophie Eustace is still a little bit weaker than Alex Jule, Vaness Reid and Bec Harris, so I would not give her much of a chance of winning if more than one of that group plays. She probably has as much chance as anyone outside that group though.
    I also believe Heather Huddleston and Angela Song still qualify. Any thoughts on whether they might play.
    Scott
    Apart from Schools chess you won't see Heather play again until she finishes year 12.

    Angela I am fairly certain will play the Open under 18. She is still eligible for the Open under 14 title, which should make it quite interesting.

  14. #14
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    ChessGuru to not play because he cannot get a super guru norm


    cheers Fg7

  15. #15
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    Latest Predictions

    The field is starting to take shape, these are the predictions according to the latest field.

    Championships:
    Ftacnik, Lubomir GM SVK 2612 2690
    Rogers, Ian GM NSW 2556 2631
    Chandler, Murray GM ENG 2537 249 BCF

    Major:
    Tredinnick, Malcolm NSW 2172 2073
    Milligan, Helen WFM SCO 2045 159 BCF*
    Dizdarevic, Mehmedalija VIC 2122 2014

    Senior (I really hope there are more people):
    Viner, Phil NSW 2147 1971
    Krstic, Slobodan VIC 2065 1928
    Lovejoy, David QLD 2038 1730

    Minor:
    FitzPatrick, Andrew VIC 1742
    Weller, Tony QLD 1781
    Wilkinson, Leo QLD 1733

    Open Rapid:
    Goldenberg, Igor VIC 2315
    Dizdarevic, Mehmedalija VIC 1853
    Wongwichit, Phachara QLD 1862

    U1800 Rapid:
    Guo-Yuthok, Sherab ACT 1610
    Hackenschmidt-Uecker, Jorg QLD 1708
    Bruck, Patrick QLD 1690

    U1600 Rapid:
    Lehane, Dominic QLD 1588
    Sretenovic, Lazar QLD 1569
    Stewart, Craig QLD 1504

    U1300 Rapid:
    Waters, Mick QLD 1295
    Hunter, Shayne QLD 1235
    Gilpin, Matthew QLD 1235

    Lightning:
    Ly, Moulthun QLD 1998
    Bjelobrk, Igor NSW 2408
    Goldenberg, Igor VIC 2315

    U18:
    Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2148
    Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 2032
    Yu, Ronald U18 NSW 2100

    U16:
    Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 2148
    Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 2032
    Song, Angela U14 NSW 1936

    U14:
    Song, Angela U14 NSW 1936
    Morris, James U14 VIC 1680
    Illingworth, Max U14 NSW 1786

    U12:
    Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1574
    Finke, Kelvin U12 QLD 1526
    Antolis, Cedric U12 VIC 1550

    U10:
    Grossman, Alex U10 VIC 1351 USCF
    Lau, Joshua U10 NSW 1047
    Stahnke, Alex U10 QLD 1090

    Girls:

    U18:
    Jule, Alexandra U18 QLD 1553
    Yu, Sally U14 VIC 1165
    Ikeda, Miona U18 ACT 1285

    U16:
    Yu, Sally U14 VIC 1165
    Eustace, Sophie U14 SA 1205
    Oliver, Tamzin U16 ACT 1250

    U14:
    Yu, Sally U14 VIC 1165
    Eustace, Sophie U14 SA 1205
    Ng, Deborah U14 NSW 1242

    U12:
    Guo, Emma U12 ACT 1197
    Setiabudi, Megan U10 ACT 785
    QLD 1437 Knapp, Katrina U12 SA 726

    U10 (Hopefully more):
    Setiabudi, Megan U10 ACT 785
    Simmonds, Leteisha U10 QLD unr
    Shan, Caroline U10 NSW 183

    Australian Junior Rapid:

    U18:
    Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 1998
    Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
    Morris, Michael U18 NSW 1915

    U16:
    Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 1998
    Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
    Anderson, Daniel U14 QLD 1640

    U14:
    Anderson, Daniel U14 QLD 1640
    Yu, Derek U14 VIC 1384
    Lei, Yitao U14 QLD 1336

    Open:
    Ly, Moulthun U16 QLD 1998
    Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
    Morris, Michael U18 NSW 1915

    U1400?:
    Yu, Derek U14 VIC 1384
    Lei, Yitao U14 QLD 1336
    Liang, Bob U18 NSW 1307

    U1100?:
    Tang, Jason U14 VIC 1021
    Posner, Daniel U14 QLD 1059
    Sunarjana, Damien U14 QLD 1028

    U800?:
    McCook, Jake U12 ACT 792
    Bhattacharya, Devraj U14 VIC 717
    Lam, Alan U10 QLD 668


    Lightning:

    U18:
    Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
    Morris, Michael U18 NSW 1915
    Cronan, James U18 NSW 1783

    U16:
    Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
    Anderson, Daniel U14 QLD 1640
    Cooke, Steven U16 QLD 1510

    U14:
    Anderson, Daniel U14 QLD 1640
    Finke, Kelvin U12 QLD 1411
    Wu, Edwin U14 NSW 1400

    U12:
    Finke, Kelvin U12 QLD 1411
    Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1174
    Guo, Emma U12 ACT 1115

    Open:

    Ikeda, Junta U16 ACT 1924
    Morris, Michael U18 NSW 1915
    Cronan, James U18 NSW 1783

    U1400?:
    Wu, Edwin U14 NSW 1400
    Yu, Derek U14 VIC 1384
    Lei, Yitao U14 QLD 1336

    U1200?:
    Yuan, Yi U12 ACT 1174
    Lee, Leoma U14 QLD 1141
    Chow, Justin U14 ACT 1133

    U800?:
    McCook, Jake U12 ACT 792
    Baines, Casey U12 ACT 755
    Bhattacharya, Devraj U14 VIC 717

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