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  1. #571
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Re impact of antichrist ban on postcount:

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Yes, he was banned two weeks ago and in that time the seasonally adjusted postcount projection for the year has dropped from 77.9/day to 75/day, at which rate by the end of his ban it may fall to about 66, which would be unrepresentative if he managed to then remain unbanned for most of the rest of the year (or perhaps too generous if he ran away never to return!).
    That turned out to be quite an accurate estimate since with AC's ban up the seasonally adjusted projection finished at 65.1. But whereas my model of rate of fall was linear, the projection actually took just 27 days to get to 66 but has since spent 17 days between 65 and 66.

  2. #572

  3. #573
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Yes Igor is looking pretty likely to be the next entrant to the top 10 now though there was a time not long ago when I thought it would more likely be Adamski.

    For the first time in forum history seven consecutive days were recorded with each day's postcount lower than the previous - after 88 posts on June 1 we had 60, 49, 47, 44, 43, 40 and 33. Today we have had 71 already so the run is clearly over.

  4. #574
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Murray
    An informed poster, with a list to port. Sadly missed
    Wrong thread—there is a fairly new Political Oxymorons thread now.
    “The history of the 20th century is full of examples of countries that set out to redistribute wealth and ended up redistributing poverty.”
    “There’s no point blaming the tragedies of socialism on the flaws or corruption of particular leaders. Any system which allows some people to exercise unbridled power over others is an open invitation to abuse, whether that system is called slavery or socialism or something else.”—Thomas Sowell

  5. #575
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    I mentioned the concept of post canyons and spikes in this post here. A canyon occurs when a day's postcount is much lower than the two days surrounding it and a spike occurs when it is higher.

    In the last few months we have had the three most notable post canyons since the forum proper started, except for one that seems almost certain to have been caused by a technical issue. These are all the most notable canyons recorded so far:

    .0441 April 15 2006 (165-36-178) - suspect
    .0609 April 13 2012 (21-8-50)
    .0647 June 14 2012 (65-18-77)
    .0741 April 24 2012 (44-15-69)
    .0833 Jan 11 2004 (70-27-125)
    .0877 Aug 17 2007 (69-22-80)
    .0888 Dec 8 2007 (64-18-57)
    .0897 April 6 2006 (82-37-186) - suspect
    .0999 Feb 6 2004 (201-47-110)

    The 8 posts recorded on April 13 was the lowest postcount for a single day since the forum proper started. On June 12 we had 110 posts which was the first 100+ post day for 97 days, also a record. These records are not surprising given that the average postcount for the year to date (62) is below the average for any completed year so far.

    Canyon days often occur before or after spike days (for obvious reasons) . These are the highest-scoring spike days:

    7.490 Dec 13 2004 (101-388-199)
    7.095 Aug 18 2007 (22-80-41)
    7.008 June 15 2012 (18-77-47)
    6.900 April 25 2012 (15-69-44)
    6.391 Jan 16 2006 (73-261-146)
    6.318 April 26 2011 (60-147-50)
    6.044 Aug 28 2010 (32-105-57)
    6.037 Jun 20 2004 (48-109-41)
    6.032 April 7 2006 (37-186-115) - suspect
    5.820 Dec 1 2010 (63-110-33)
    5.580 Apr 14 2012 (8-50-56) ineligible

    Note the last entry there is actually not a spike since the postcount the day after was higher. Despite this it still had the 11th highest spike score.

    That is not surprising either since the ratio between two of the days (6.25) was the highest in forum history. Indeed there have been only eight cases of a ratio of 4 or more between successive days - April 13-14 this year (6.25), April 25-26 this year (4.6), three in 2006 which are all suspect, and three in early 2004 some of which are suspect.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 13-04-2014 at 01:28 PM.

  6. #576
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Six-monthly stats update

    Total posts: 321,899
    Top 10 posters: 122,381 which is 38.0% of total posts
    However "total posts" includes correspondence game posts of which there are now 35567 (a small number of posts were reclassified). Top 10 posters total does not include correspondence game posts.
    Posts since last update: 10981
    1274 accounts have undeleted posts (about 60 of these are hydras or spammers, mostly banned).

    Post-rate since last update excluding correspondence games: 59.5 ppd (down 6%)
    (Post-rate for a certain other forum excluding correspondence games for this period: about 12.6 ppd (down 35%) but difficult to determine exactly as there have been a couple of post deletion events over there.)

    Note that these figures are for undeleted posts only.

    Top Posters by postcount

    Code:
    1. Kevin Bonham 	 24,911		[+1552]   
    2. Rincewind		 15,676		[+727]  
    3. Bill Gletsos		 14,982	        [+174] 
    4. Garvinator		 12,569		[+18]   
    5. antichrist 		 12,064	        [+924]   
    6. Captain Underpants 	 10,898	        [+136]
    7. Jono                  10,730         [+652]   
    8. JaK                   7,630          [+413] 
    9. road runner	         7,241          [+461] 
    10.ursogr8		 5,680	        [unchanged]
    The list and its order were unchanged.

    Stats for Kevin Bonham, Bill Gletsos and Rincewind include posts in mods subforum (about 2604, 1866, and 1596 posts respectively.)

    Ten most active posters by posts per day since joining (Qualification: 200 posts). Figure in brackets is position on poster list

    1. Kevin Bonham 8.03 (1)
    2. Rincewind 5.05 (2)
    3. Bill Gletsos 4.83 (3)
    4. Captain Underpants 4.75 (6)
    5. Garvinator 4.05 (4)
    6. antichrist 3.89 (5)
    7. JaK 3.52 (9)
    8. Jono 3.46 (7)
    9. road runner 3.20 (8)
    10. Adamski 2.78 (14)

    Places 3 and 4 were swapped on this list but the order is otherwise the same.

    Jono has averaged 5.61 ppd since first post on 04-04-2007 but signed up years before that.

    Ten most active in last six months

    1. Kevin Bonham 1552
    2. antichrist 924
    3. Rincewind 727
    4. Jono 652
    5. road runner 451
    6. Adamski 417
    7. JaK 413
    8. Ignatius Reilly 276
    9. Igor Goldenberg 244
    10. Max Illingworth 234

    Highest posting new user: the most active user to sign up in the last six months was MantaMan (22).

    Posters from top 60 by postcount currently inactive for >1 month:
    (inactive = no login, no posts, no proxy posts - or permanently banned)

    4. Garvinator (last post 30-01-2012, last login 12-02-2012)
    10. ursogr8 (last active through another account, 14-07-2011)
    11. arosar (10-04-2011)
    17. Axiom (05-08-2009, permanently banned)
    18. PHAT (last post 25-08-2006, last login 27-12-2006, permanently banned)
    19. Alan Shore (last post 06-04-2008, last login 06-09-2010)
    20. skip to my lou (last post 18-06-2011, last login 27-01-2012)
    22. Status Unknown (06-07-2011)
    24. firegoat7 (last active via proxy 15-12-2011, permanently banned)
    26. jenni (main account suspended, last active via proxy 25-01-07)
    37. four four two (last post 20-02-2008, last active 10-02-2011)
    39. TheJoker (15-09-2010)
    40. Cat (14-10-2006)
    44. Davidflude (last post 03-03-2012, last active 15-03-2012)
    46. chesslover (16-05-2004)
    47. Space_Dude (last post 02-05-2011, last login 21-09-2011)
    51. JGB (last post 06-03-2010, last login 14-12-2011)
    53. garethbcharles (last post 27-06-2011, last login 16-10-2011)
    57. CameronD (account suspended 14-06-2010)
    59. Arrogant-One (last post 29-12-2006, last login 24-02-2009, permanently banned)

    Posters from top 60 logging in in last month, but not posting:

    23. eclectic (last post 30-04-2009)


    NB A no-post period of six months is required for inclusion in the latter list unless an account has been suspended or there is other strong reason to consider poster inactive as a poster.

    antichrist is not counted as inactive as he logged in on 4 June.

    The number of inactive (in some sense) top-60 accounts rose by three to 21 during this period. Three posters joined the main inactive list and two moved from the lurker list to the main inactive list.

    In all the top ten lists below, a [NEW] next to the entry name indicates a debut entry to that top ten list. There is only one of those this time.

    Top ten threads by posts:

    All threads

    5163 Does God Exist?
    2860 American Elections and Politics
    2744 Short Game of Hangman
    2563 cricket
    2193 The Great Global Warming Swindle
    2150 Deprogramming Ignosheep (was: THE INFORMATION WAR)
    1977 Photo caption contest
    1845 Football - soccer
    1496 What song are you listening to RIGHT NOW?
    1389 Hobart International Chess Club

    Chess threads

    1389 Hobart International Chess Club
    861 soft titles
    828 Australian Championships 2010
    820 Extending state bans nationwide
    799 2006 Torino Olympiad
    739 How competitive do you want it to be?
    727 Olympiad Dresden 2008
    700 Olympiad selections (2004)
    672 Mt Buller Championships
    649 Chess Victoria proposed changes/David Cordover running for President

    Top ten threads by views

    All threads

    183226 Does God exist?
    115834 cricket
    105656 Photo caption contest
    104718 Hobart International Chess Club
    98244 American Elections and Politics
    90437 Football - Soccer
    87520 The Great Global Warming Swindle
    84145 What song are you listening to RIGHT NOW?
    82831 Moderation: questions, discussion and completely pointless whinging*
    75297 Moderation rules and decisions

    * = shown viewcount estimated to undercount actual by 35701 (see #388 of this thread)

    Chess threads

    104718 Hobart International Chess Club
    62762 an interview
    57544 Australian Championships 2010
    53583 Australian Championship 2012 in Victoria! [NEW]
    50922 SA Chess Results
    44736 Australian Junior 2010 in Hobart
    44267 Brisbane Chess Club
    42600 ACF Olympiad Appeal 2008
    41701 soft titles
    40744 Olympiad Dresden 2008

    Finally this list has no Mt Buller threads on it!

    Top ten postcounts for a single thread by poster ...

    All threads

    1109 Axiom (THE INFORMATION WAR - now renamed "Deprogramming Ignosheep")
    941 Jono (American Elections and Politics)
    876 Rincewind (Does God Exist?)
    707 Kevin Bonham (Toolbox-Detox)
    678 Max Illingworth (Short Game of Hangman)
    665 Adamski (Short Game Of Hangman)
    637 Rincewind (cricket)
    632 Jono (Does God Exist?)
    614 Spiny Norman (Does God Exist?)
    606 Jono (The Great Global Warming Swindle)

    Chess threads

    472 Kevin Bonham (Hobart International Chess Club)
    372 William AS (SA Chess Results)
    289 ursogr8 (How competitive do you want it to be?)
    286 JaK (An interview)
    253 Garvinator (Brisbane Chess Club)
    231 Adamski (Australian Championships 2010)
    200 Jono (Hobart International Chess Club)
    182 Southpaw Jim (Hobart International Chess Club)
    177 Kevin Bonham (Australian Junior 2010 in Hobart)
    170 Kings of Chess (2010 Gold Coast Chess Festival)

    as always corrections etc welcome - but don't even think about quoting the whole post for a one or two line reply

  7. #577
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    57. CameronD (account suspended 14-06-2010)
    2 years since he self-defenestrated! Wow. Time (and CameronD) flies.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  8. #578
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    By the way this is the seventh consecutive half for which I've had the highest postcount, though AC would have smashed my total if he hadn't got himself banned. Jono had the highest postcount in both halves of 2008 and Captain Underpants (then Gunner Duggan) in both halves of 2007. I topped it in the second half of 2006 and before that it's a bit unclear though I'm sure Bill topped the first half of 2004 at least.

  9. #579
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Finally this list has no Mt Buller threads on it!
    Speaking of which, whatever happened to those newsletters...

    Seriously though, thanks for the update Kevin.
    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  10. #580
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by road runner
    Speaking of which, whatever happened to those newsletters...
    They never eventuated. Something was eventually passed to offer the subscribers their money back.

  11. #581
    CC Grandmaster Adamski's Avatar
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    It is always interesting to read the 6 months stats. Thanks for the work, Kevin!

    FYI, lately I have been playing and studying chess more than posting on CC and this is starting to show some results.
    God exists. Short and to the point.

    Secretary of, and regularly arbiter at, Rooty Hill RSL Chess Club. See www.rootyhillchessclub.org.

    Psephological insight. "Controversial will only lose you votes. Courageous will lose you the election." Sir Humphrey Appleby on Yes Minister.

    Favorite movie line: Girl friend Cathy to Jack Ryan in "Sum of all Fears". "What kind of emergency does an historian have?".

  12. #582
    Account Compromised
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adamski
    It is always interesting to read the 6 months stats. Thanks for the work, Kevin!

    FYI, lately I have been playing and studying chess more than posting on CC and this is starting to show some results.
    What are you trying to say ?

  13. #583
    CC Grandmaster Adamski's Avatar
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    This explains my drop in post count of recent months compared with the start of this year. It is also good to spend at least as much time studying and playing chess as chatting about it!!
    God exists. Short and to the point.

    Secretary of, and regularly arbiter at, Rooty Hill RSL Chess Club. See www.rootyhillchessclub.org.

    Psephological insight. "Controversial will only lose you votes. Courageous will lose you the election." Sir Humphrey Appleby on Yes Minister.

    Favorite movie line: Girl friend Cathy to Jack Ryan in "Sum of all Fears". "What kind of emergency does an historian have?".

  14. #584
    Account Compromised
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adamski
    This explains my drop in post count of recent months compared with the start of this year. It is also good to spend at least as much time studying and playing chess as chatting about it!!
    Have you always been a radical ?

  15. #585
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham in early June
    For the first time in forum history seven consecutive days were recorded with each day's postcount lower than the previous
    This would have happened again for the seven days June 30 - July 6 if a single post made on July 1 had been posted on June 30 instead.

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