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  1. #556
    CC Grandmaster antichrist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adamski
    Evidence for an intelligent Designer?
    as there is no common demoninator of them I would say no
    Zionism is racism as defined by the UN, Israel by every dirty means available steals land and water, kill Palestinian freedom fighters and civilians, and operates an apartheid system to drive more Palestinians off their land

  2. #557
    CC Grandmaster antichrist's Avatar
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    I would truly be amazed if by chance yesterday the Janis Joplin thread was the most popular all day?
    Zionism is racism as defined by the UN, Israel by every dirty means available steals land and water, kill Palestinian freedom fighters and civilians, and operates an apartheid system to drive more Palestinians off their land

  3. #558
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antichrist
    I would truly be amazed if by chance yesterday the Janis Joplin thread was the most popular all day?
    It had 21 posts which was certainly the highest for the day but almost half of those were you just copying and pasting stuff.

  4. #559
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Are you a chance of one more post tonight Kevin?
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  5. #560
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind
    Are you a chance of one more post tonight Kevin?
    Yes, but this isn't it.

    (For the record, my 24,000th post was yet another slapdown of some stupid stuff from firegoat.)

  6. #561
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Interesting to see how quickly stuff gets viewed round here. In the first hour of last Saturday I posted some images of rare jewel beetles here. As the hosted site gives some level of statistical info I can say that they were viewed 46 times on the first day they were up, 10 times on the second, and then not at all until the next Saturday when they were viewed twice.

  7. #562
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    A post canyon (where a single day records a lot less posts than the one surrounding it) was recorded on Mar 22 with 24 posts sandwiched between Mar 21 (56) and Mar 23 (60) (today, for what it's worth, should finish in the 80s). The canyon effect size (see here) of 0.171 was the most notable since Feb 23 2011.

    Currently postcount averages for the year are running at similar levels to the final results for 2010 and 2011. However, seasonally the first few months of the year tend to be stronger than the rest of it.

  8. #563
    CC FIDE Master Hobbes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Currently postcount averages for the year are running at similar levels to the final results for 2010 and 2011. However, seasonally the first few months of the year tend to be stronger than the rest of it.
    Remember we are in an antichrist-free valley at the moment too.
    Leave the gun. Take the cannoli.

  9. #564
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hobbes
    Remember we are in an antichrist-free valley at the moment too.
    Yes, he was banned two weeks ago and in that time the seasonally adjusted postcount projection for the year has dropped from 77.9/day to 75/day, at which rate by the end of his ban it may fall to about 66, which would be unrepresentative if he managed to then remain unbanned for most of the rest of the year (or perhaps too generous if he ran away never to return!).

  10. #565
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    In March 2008 I made this post where I tracked the forum's active member base through time, considering one lot of data involving members who had made at least one post and another involving members who had made at least 10.

    I commented that:

    Both data sets show similar patterns. There is steady growth in poster base through to at least September 06, with an especially notable purple patch in the period July-September 05 (no idea what the reason for that was).

    Between Oct06 and Mar07 there appears to be a small net loss in posters - this may be partly lag but I suspect that even when all the lagged posters from that period are accounted for there will still be some net loss. This was a relatively contentious time for the forum with numerous suspensions and hydra attacks, however in the case of posters with at least one post, the cause of the net loss in posters is not a significantly higher departure rate during these six months, but a significantly lower recruitment rate. This increased in subsequent months, and will increase further for those months once lag is accounted for. For posters with 10 or more posts there is a spike in apparent departures - in part because a few of them were banned.

    In the six months April-September 07 the stats will show an increase in poster base once lag is accounted for (indeed an increase is already apparent in NJD-NLV for posters with 10 or more posts), and it is obviously too early to say what the patterns are since then except that, accounting for lag, recruitement appears to be healthy.
    I have now gone back and checked stats for that time period by the same method and also extended the exercise up to the present.

    The result (can post the figures if anyone's interested) is that while the October-December 2006 quarter remains one where there was a small contraction in active member base (net loss of nine active posters including 3 with >10 posts), the other quarters mentioned are now recorded as growth quarters, to the point that the losses in that one quarter were more or less wiped out the quarter after.

    Indeed the new figures show that there was growth in active member base from the forum's inception to at least the end of 2009 for every quarter except Oct-Dec 2006, April-June 2008 (which was at worst level) and July-Sep 2008. Furthermore the two quarters in that sample that displayed loss were preceded in one case and followed in another by two of the biggest growth quarters ever. Also, the departure spike in late 06 for posters with >10 posts has since washed out of the system after some of them returned on long orbits.

    Looking at how the lag issue has panned out from the months leading up to the previous sample, I find that ignoring the two most recent quarters at that time and considering the seven prior to that, figures at the time of 264 members who later posted joining and 260 having their last activity have, with the passage of time, become 273 and 202 respectively. (The first number increases because people who had joined but not yet posted when the sampling was done later post; the second number declines because posters re-activate).

    If the eventual lag adjustment for that period of 14% also applies now, then it looks like the forum reached its highest ever level of active membership in mid-2010 and is now a little below that level with likely losses in the periods Oct-Dec 2010 and July-Sept 2011, but still at a high net membership level for the history of the forum as a whole. This is interesting given that post counts since the start of 2010 have been lower than before. It is also consistent with recent observations of record high numbers of members online at the same time.

    We have 271 members with posts who have visited since 1 Jan including 199 with 10+ posts.

    This compares very well to figures of 176 and 110 respectively when I measured the same thing in 2008, even though the figures for 2008 were undercounted (probably by about 10%) since the sample was taken 13 days before the end of the month.

    I have not yet run the same comparison for the number of members who last posted in given periods, a stat that I described as "relatively useless" last time around, but it might be interesting to see what kind of lag conversion factor can be found in that case based on past experience. It's possible given the fairly low post count levels that although active membership is high, the proportion of members who don't post much is quite a bit higher than when I did the 2008 sample.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 04-04-2012 at 12:10 AM.

  11. #566
    CC Grandmaster
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    I just noticed that there have been 99 999 posts in the Non-Chess category.
    Now there are 100 000, of course.

  12. #567
    CC International Master
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    Time for the palindrome to make a second exit from this forum.

    (I originally wrote visit to in place of exit from, but realised that this post cessated this event)
    Grandmaster, FIDE Trainer, 2018-19 Australian Champion

    Do you love your chess as much as I do?

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  13. #568
    CC Grandmaster Adamski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Max Illingworth
    Time for the palindrome to make a second exit from this forum.

    (I originally wrote visit to in place of exit from, but realised that this post cessated this event)
    Only 2nd, Max? how about numbers like 11, 111, 1111, 11111 to mention only a few?
    God exists. Short and to the point.

    Secretary of, and regularly arbiter at, Rooty Hill RSL Chess Club. See www.rootyhillchessclub.org.

    Psephological insight. "Controversial will only lose you votes. Courageous will lose you the election." Sir Humphrey Appleby on Yes Minister.

    Favorite movie line: Girl friend Cathy to Jack Ryan in "Sum of all Fears". "What kind of emergency does an historian have?".

  14. #569
    CC Grandmaster Redmond Barry's Avatar
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    Karl Pilkingtons thought provoking "Mortal Palindrome" ..................

    (warning bad language !)

    Ruin is formal, devil's work,
    Consecutive and slow -
    Fail in an instance no man did,
    Slipping - is Crash's law,

  15. #570
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    May 3 was the first day since Mar 11 that had a higher post count than the same day in 2011.

    Mar 11 (2012) being just after antichrist was banned I hypothesised that antichrist must have been freshly banned on May 3 last year. Checking the Moderation thread I find that he was indeed banned (for a week) on April 29 2011.

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