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  1. #286
    Premium Member ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adamski
    ... Most of the sequence defies logic ...
    So are chess players!!!
    Hi Jonathan how are you? Missing you all in Sydney! BB soon!
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  2. #287
    CC Grandmaster Adamski's Avatar
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    Hi JaK

    Quote Originally Posted by justaknight
    Hi Jonathan how are you? Missing you all in Sydney! BB soon!
    Hi JaK. I am good. Start the norths club champs tonight. Yes come back as soon as you can. It was good to be able to put the face to the handle!
    God exists. Short and to the point.

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  3. #288
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    I must say I was pretty surprised when it came out the way it did.

    Very likely the order of some of the days will continue chopping around over time as the differences are relatively small. I don't think Sunday, Monday or Tuesday will ever hit the lead though at this rate.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 14-02-2009 at 05:08 PM.

  4. #289
    CC International Master Miranda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    I must say I was pretty surprised when it came out the way it did.

    Very likely the order of some of the days will continue chopping around over time as the differences are relatively small. I don't think Sunday, Monday or Tuesday will ever hit the lead though at this rate.
    Oh really?
    *starts posting 100 messages on Mondays and none throughout the rest of the week*
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  5. #290
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miranda
    Oh really?
    *starts posting 100 messages on Mondays and none throughout the rest of the week*
    Indeed. There is always a risk that publishing stats about poster behaviour could result in changes to that behaviour.

    Thought I'd have a look at whether there have been changes in the day-of-the-week thing between different years:

    2003: insuffiicient data to draw any useful conclusion
    2004: Sat (128.7), Sun (113.9), Fri (112.4), Tues (107.8), Mon (99.1), Wed (92.7), Thurs (89)
    2005: Wed (125), Thurs (123.3), Sat (122.0), Fri (118.9), Sun (107.7), Tues (99.9), Mon (95.8)
    2006: Sun (172.3), Thurs (166.0), Sat (163.3), Wed (156.8), Fri (156.2), Tues (134.4), Mon (124.5)
    2007: Fri (130.6), Thurs (123.2), Sat (114.5), Wed (109.1), Sun (105.1), Mon (103.5), Tues (97.6)
    2008: Wed (144.2), Thurs (138.4), Mon (131.1), Tues (125.1), Fri (121.4), Sun (118.0), Sat (111.2)
    2009 (so far) Thurs (155.7), Fri (150.8), Sat (144.5), Mon (138.3), Sun (133.7), Wed (127.8), Tues (127.2)

    The order moves around a lot from year to year. Don't know if this is just random variation or if it means something.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 14-02-2009 at 05:09 PM.

  6. #291
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Saturday, Sunday and Monday 8-10 Feb each recorded over 200 posts (of all kinds including CC game posts and deleted posts).

    This is a relatively rare event - the sixteenth time in chesschat history that 200+ posts have occurred on at least three days in a row. It first happened on April 11-13 2005. It happened again seven times in 2006, twice in 2007 and five times in 2008.

    There have been five streaks of more than three 200+ post days in a row. These were:

    May 17-20 2006 (4)
    Aug 28-31 2006 (4)
    May 10-14 2008 (5)
    May 22-25 2008 (4)
    and the longest streak so far, Nov 24-Dec 1 2008 (7), associated with the creation of the Teens Forum.

  7. #292
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    [EDIT And this version also has errors, see #300 below where hopefully I might have finally got it right]

    Let's try that one again, shall we!

    My previous days-of-the-week calculations were utter rubbish and have had to be redone, producing a far more intuitively sensible result.

    The reason for the error was that there are certain days on which the forum database holds no record whatsoever of how many posts were made. This does not mean no posts were made as days with no posts made would still be recorded. It means there is no way of knowing how many posts were made. The forum may have been offline or being upgraded.

    These days are:

    Oct 9-14 2004
    Oct 16-19 2004
    March 30 2008
    Oct 5 2008

    [EDIT 1/4/09: Totals for the last two days have been derived successfully from weekly totals.]

    My method was to simply cut and paste the list of days with totals into Excel then have a column with days cycling 1-7 and on that basis add up the totals for each day. But because there were gaps in the cycling that I didn't know about, most of the days were being attributed wrongly.

    These are the revised and far more logical answers:

    Sunday 126.5 ppd
    Saturday 124.4
    Monday 123.2
    Tuesday 122.2
    Wednesday 113.9
    Friday 106.3
    Thursday 99.8

    Days most often over 100 roughly follows this pattern with Sunday (67.6%) first and Thursday (39.2%) last.

    Days most often over 200 also follows it pretty well with Saturday (33) first and Friday (13) last.

    Still some variation between years in the order, eg in 2006 Wednesdays received the most posts.

    The revised winner is Adamski (sorry about that Boris) with a score of 5 including the -3 bonus, ahead of Saragossa with 7 including the -3 bonus. Adamski had the first three days correct and the remaining four in exact reverse order.


    The order moves around a lot from year to year. Don't know if this is just random variation or if it means something.
    It meant the data were incorrectly coded.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 31-03-2009 at 11:14 PM.

  8. #293
    Premium Member ER's Avatar
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    wow!

    Congrats to Jonathan and Lawrence, as for Boris he can always demand a recount!
    I am happy with my one day correct guess!
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  9. #294
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Damn you Adamski *shake fist in air*

    Actually I probably came last, that looks almost opposite to my guess.

  10. #295
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    The revised winner is Adamski
    Adamski eh? Smithers, get me the file on Admaski
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  11. #296
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by justaknight
    as for Boris he can always demand a recount!
    He probably could demand a recount, because with someone else adding up the figures, you never know what answer you might get

  12. #297
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Pretty sure I've got it right this time. Could email the spreadsheet to anyone who's really really bored!
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 15-02-2009 at 01:01 AM.

  13. #298
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    As flagged in the shoutbox 93 posts were made on chesschat yesterday (AEDT). While this isn't especially bad, this ended a run of 20 consecutive days with 100 or more posts made, the equal fourth longest in chesschat history.

    The longest such runs are:

    1. 42 days (Aug 27-Oct 7 2006)
    2=. 24 days (Dec 26 2006-Jan 18 2007 and May 5-28 2008)
    4=. 20 days (Nov 2-21 2008 and Jan 25-Feb 13 2009)
    6=. 19 days (Mar 28-Apr 15 2005, May 11-28 2006, June 30-July 18 2006)
    9. 18 days (June 11-28 2006)
    10. 17 days (Mar 16-31 2006 and July 23-Aug 8 2007)

    After chesschat's second day (Oct 3 2003 with 137 posts) it did not again record 100+ posts in a day until the start of chesschat as we know it now with the merge from the old ACF forum on Jan 1 2004. Aside from that 89-day doldrum the longest run without a 100+ post day is 29 days from Dec 7 2007 to Jan 4 2008.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 14-02-2009 at 11:33 PM.

  14. #299
    CC Grandmaster Adamski's Avatar
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    Well I never!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Let's try that one again, shall we!

    My previous days-of-the-week calculations were utter rubbish and have had to be redone, producing a far more intuitively sensible result.

    The reason for the error was that there are certain days on which the forum database holds no record whatsoever of how many posts were made. This does not mean no posts were made as days with no posts made would still be recorded. It means there is no way of knowing how many posts were made. The forum may have been offline or being upgraded.

    These days are:

    Oct 9-14 2004
    Oct 16-19 2004
    March 30 2008
    Oct 5 2008

    My method was to simply cut and paste the list of days with totals into Excel then have a column with days cycling 1-7 and on that basis add up the totals for each day. But because there were gaps in the cycling that I didn't know about, most of the days were being attributed wrongly.

    These are the revised and far more logical answers:

    Sunday 126.5 ppd
    Saturday 124.4
    Monday 123.2
    Tuesday 122.2
    Wednesday 113.9
    Friday 106.3
    Thursday 99.8

    Days most often over 100 roughly follows this pattern with Sunday (67.6%) first and Thursday (39.2%) last.

    Days most often over 200 also follows it pretty well with Saturday (33) first and Friday (13) last.

    Still some variation between years in the order, eg in 2006 Wednesdays received the most posts.

    The revised winner is Adamski (sorry about that Boris) with a score of 5 including the -3 bonus, ahead of Saragossa with 7 including the -3 bonus. Adamski had the first three days correct and the remaining four in exact reverse order.
    Talk about totally different outcome! There is logic in some chess things outside the actual game after all!!
    God exists. Short and to the point.

    Secretary of, and regularly arbiter at, Rooty Hill RSL Chess Club. See www.rootyhillchessclub.org.

    Psephological insight. "Controversial will only lose you votes. Courageous will lose you the election." Sir Humphrey Appleby on Yes Minister.

    Favorite movie line: Girl friend Cathy to Jack Ryan in "Sum of all Fears". "What kind of emergency does an historian have?".

  15. #300
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Take ***three*** on the days of the week thing!

    Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh! Yet another error has been found!

    This time after fixing up the problems caused by the missing days I forgot to re-align the days of the week on the bottom of the table meaning that the numbers were correct but the days they were lined up next to are wrong: out by two ...

    ... giving the following revised revised results:

    Tuesday 126.5 ppd
    Monday 124.4
    Wednesday 123.2
    Thursday 122.2
    Friday 113.9
    Sunday 106.3
    Saturday 99.8

    This two day shift has a massive impact because it chucks the weekend from the top of the pile to the bottom!

    Days most often over 100 now roughly follows this pattern with Tuesday (67.6%) first and Sunday (39.2%) last.

    Days most often over 200 also follows it pretty well with Monday (33) first and Sunday (13) last.

    Still some variation between years in the order, eg in 2006 Fridays received the most posts.


    And third time lucky:

    *drumroll*

    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    My guess in order of most popular post day to least popular is
    Tuesday
    Monday
    Wednesday
    Thursday
    Friday
    Saturday
    Sunday
    Only the bottom two days the wrong way around for a net error of -1 including the three point bonus.

    Gunner, is the above the pattern on your forum?
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 15-02-2009 at 01:08 AM.

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