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  1. #151
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spiny Norman
    I don't think its fair that you should change the terms roughly half was through the test period.

    You should instead make a counter offer (with new terms of measurement) and then see if the other person wishes to participate ... then start measuring again, starting from now ...
    He is free to modify his prediction downwards any time he wishes. The original exchange was not in the nature of an organised "let's see who is closest" type of exercise but rather just a case where I made my comment about what I thought would happen and he made his.

    I've amended my prediction because there is good reason to believe it will not be accurate. This is similar to what I do when forecasting election outcomes - the ideal thing is to be right a long way out, but it is better to correct one's prediction to a more accurate one closer to the date than to remain with an incorrect one.

    It will probably still be the case that my original prediction is much closer than his, but when he can't even run a simple Post of the Month competition without making a complete mess of it and triggering dozens of posts of debate, who knows?

  2. #152
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    I do think there are some things [Alex] has done well that Sweeney didn't, in particular working harder on getting his site linked internationally, which has brought in some overseas posters, although none of them seem to be strong players.
    Yes, he seems to have set up some reciprocal arrangements whereby he advertises some sites and they return the favour.

    Whilst checking one of them out, I happened to notice AO's profile there. He claims that his national rating is 1896, which while completely false from his point of view, happens to be my national rating. I wonder what conclusions can be drawn from this...
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 30-11-2009 at 04:55 PM.
    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  3. #153
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    In lengthy comments on my above post elsewhere, AO asks why I gave a stat for the Toolbox post-rate after three months and after six, but did not give a stat for the period between and hence show the average Toolbox post-rate for its second three months of existence.

    The gap between my two comments on the Toolbox ppd rate is not three months as AO suggests, but actually two months and six days. Also the Toolbox was not six months old at the time of my six-monthly stats update, but actually around five and a half months.

    My post of 23-10-2007 didn't measure the Toolbox's activity level because of any intention to monitor the Toolbox's activity level on a scheduled basis. Rather, I made that post to comment on the failure of ACCF because it was the first anniversary of a failed prediction by Matthew Sweeney about where ACCF would be one year from 23-10-2006. I just thought it would be interesting to compare how the Toolbox was going at the same time, especially as the Toolbox was the primary cause of ACCF's death (to the extent that it was ever alive in the first place.) I have now decided to include the comparison stat in my six-monthly updates, however.

    As it happens the average post-rate in the Toolbox between 23-10-2007 and 29-12-2007 was 22.7 ppd excluding correspondence games. About 40% of the increase compared to the period prior to 23-10 can be attributed to the incursions of Bill and Boris and the reactions following from these.

    AO also runs a line of argument where he speculates that competition from the Toolbox might be cutting the rate at which posts are posted on Chesschat. I think it will take quite a while for it to become apparent if this is definitely the case or not; correllation doesn't necessarily equal causation but obviously if some of the "dual citizens" are posting more there and less here then that affects the figures, especially if they were previously posting contentiously here and provoking long flamewars.

    There may also be a tendency at the moment for long-established forums to decline over time. My other forum, a much larger one where bannings are exceedingly rare, is in such sharp decline that the average number of posts made by each of the ten most active posters of the year was 4708 in 2005, 3621 in 2006 and 3003 in 2007. That forum has no one particular competitor, but when it started in 2002 there was no myspace, no facebook, no youtube, less blogging (etc).

    The 100 ppd stat for Chesschat I gave was from the start of the year until 23rd October. Assuming a constant rate of correspondence game posts (and excluding those) the rough breakdown is 107 ppd for the first half of 2007, 90 ppd from mid-2007 to Oct 23, and 78 ppd for Oct 23-Dec 29. If the pattern was solely driven by competition from other sites, you would expect a greater difference between the second figure and the third than between the first and the second, but actually the reverse is true.

    What I do notice is that all the very active chesschat posters posted less in the second half of 2007 than they normally do, except for me posting at about the same rate as normal.

    Nothing else in the rest of [Alex]'s post (especially not the faint praise) inspires me to comment except for:

    (i) I am not sure why he speculates about what price the site owner could get for this forum when STML has never had any intention of selling it, which is not surprising given that it costs STML nothing to run

    (ii) yet again he has guessed wrong about how I found out his middle name!
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 30-11-2009 at 04:55 PM.

  4. #154
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    (ii) yet again he has guessed wrong about how I found out his middle name!
    This has me intrigued for 5 seconds. I didn't know there was a particular mystery surrounding his middle name. I googled "Alexander [Surname]" and the following website is the first one on the list

    http://www.aussieweb.com.au/map.aspx?id=1062896

    So given that Alex's location and profession are on the public record, I'm guessing "Vincent".

    Firstly, am I right?

    Secondly, is THIS how you found out?

    (Apologises for not being intrigued enough to read up to see if this was already one of Alex's incorrect guesses).
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 30-11-2009 at 04:56 PM.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  5. #155
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind
    So given that Alex's location and profession are on the public record, I'm guessing "Vincent".

    Firstly, am I right?
    Yes.

    Secondly, is THIS how you found out?
    No.

    By the way, if you do a search for "Vincent" on this forum, and narrow it appropriately, you can find out where I found out from. But I don't recommend that most other posters try it!

  6. #156
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    By the way, if you do a search for "Vincent" on this forum, and narrow it appropriately, you can find out where I found out from.
    Yes, it was mentioned in a post of mine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    But I don't recommend that most other posters try it!
    Unless they are an admin or a mod.
    The Force can have a strong influence on the weak-minded.
    Mos Eisley spaceport The toolbox. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.

  7. #157
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    MOZ kindly points out elsewhere that:

    Not counting the over-use[sic] in the chesschat shoutbox, there are 310 instances, in the chesschat threads, of the word 'dribble'.
    In his usual flawed-metric fashion, he omits to mention that several of these are quotes of other instances, and several more are not uses of "dribble" to suggest that another poster is, well, dribbling.

    So for instance, when I told firegoat7 that "I can discuss internationalism with you until the cows come home and dribble milk all over your underperceptive cranium", including that post in the metric may lead to a faulty conclusion.

    However, I also noticed this. The first three users of "dribble" as an insult on this board were peanbrain, WBA and ... firegoat7!

    Furthermore, firegoat7 has used "dribble" as an insult five times compared with my 12.

    On a proportional basis, firegoat therefore uses "dribble" as an insult once every 562 posts whereas I only do so once every 880.

    Another instance of a toolboxer whinging about something that another toolboxer is more guilty of than at least some of the Chesschat regulars.

  8. #158
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Has MOZISSOGR8 been a king dribbler (oops there's another one) again? Apparently.

    Hang on. Apart from constructing flawed positions that shoot themselves in the foot, are they really honestly discussing the dribbling quotient over here?

    FFS - G.E.T.A.L.I.F.E (or a hydro-soaker. Probably better to buy than rent given the forecast usage).
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  9. #159
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunner Duggan
    Has MOZISSOGR8 been a king dribbler (oops there's another one) again? Apparently.

    Hang on. Apart from constructing flawed positions that shoot themselves in the foot, are they really honestly discussing the dribbling quotient over here?

    FFS - G.E.T.A.L.I.F.E (or a hydro-soaker. Probably better to buy than rent given the forecast usage).
    If the f88t is in the m8uth, h8w can the dribble escape? Is it swall8wed 8r is a shunt affair in 8peration?
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  10. #160
    CC resident nutcase Trent Parker's Avatar
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    After all this time of being Banned PHAT still has over double the amount of posts I do.

    should I say something about Quality not quantity here?
    GO THE DRAGONS!
    GO Western Sydney Wanderers!
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    God exists. Short and to the point.
    This is the reason I do not wade into religion threads.

  11. #161
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    This may be of some interest - it tracks the member base of the forum over time in terms of posters with at least one (undeleted) post, by three-month periods.

    Chesschat was started on 3 October 2003. On 1 Jan 2004 the existing member base of the old ACF forum was merged into it.

    The figures are as follows:

    NJD: number of posters who now have at least one post, who joined in the specified time period.

    NLP: number of posters who now have at least one post, who last posted in the specified time period.

    NLV: number of posters who now have at least one post, who last visited in the specified time period.

    All these figures exclude banned hydras.

    Once a period is finished, the NJD figure for that period can only increase, as posters who joined during that period may later start posting. However, the NLP and NLV figures can only go down, since some of those posters may post or visit again and hence be removed from the group.

    Therefore if NJD exceeds NLP and NLV for a given period, we know that the number of active posters on the forum definitely increased. But if NLP or NLV exceed NJD, that doesn't necessarily indicate posters were lost; some may merely be temporarily inactive because they don't visit the forum (or post) on a continual basis. That especially applies over the last six months, but can apply to some degree much further back. The lag for NLP is much longer than for NLV because there are many posters who visit continually but rarely post. There are several posters who most recently posted in 2006 but who continue to visit. I think NLV is a better measure of whether posters are actually being retained or not, and NLP is actually relatively useless, with the caveat that there are a very small number of posters (eg ursogr8 ) who continue visiting when they are clearly not intending to post.

    Code:
                          NJD     NLP     NLV
    Oct03-Dec03           55      42      37
    1Jan04 transfer       82      --      --
    Jan04-Mar04           33      24      18
    Apr04-Jun04           27      26      27
    Jul04-Sep04           21      15      14
    Oct04-Dec04           35      24      14
    Jan05-Mar05           31      21      22   
    Apr05-Jun05           29      25      19     
    Jul05-Sep05           47      23      23
    Oct05-Dec05           35      30      26  
    Jan06-Mar06           45      45      43
    Apr06-Jun06           46      40      35
    Jul-Sep06             51      51      39
    Oct06-Dec06           33      43      48
    Jan07-Mar07           22      29      26
    Apr07-Jun07           35      39      31
    Jul07-Sep07           32      37      38
    Oct07-Dec07           31      57      59
    Jan08-Mar08*          43      176     231   
    
    *current three-month period not yet complete
    And here's the same thing for posters with at least 10 posts. Note that the lag in NJD is stronger here as posters who have just joined often don't have 10 posts yet, but will reach that tally later. Hence the NJD figures for Oct07-Dec07 and Jan08-Mar08, at least, are artificially low compared to those for posters with at least one post.

    Code:
                          NJD     NLP     NLV
    Oct03-Dec03           22      12      10
    1Jan04 transfer       66      --      --
    Jan04-Mar04           13      2       1
    Apr04-Jun04           13      6       6
    Jul04-Sep04           7       6       4
    Oct04-Dec04           14      4       1
    Jan05-Mar05           15      4       5   
    Apr05-Jun05           13      5       4     
    Jul05-Sep05           25      6       5
    Oct05-Dec05           8       6       5  
    Jan06-Mar06           12      10      7
    Apr06-Jun06           17      14      12
    Jul-Sep06             11      12      7
    Oct06-Dec06           5       16      12
    Jan07-Mar07           7       12      13
    Apr07-Jun07           9       12      8
    Jul07-Sep07           11      14      8
    Oct07-Dec07           5       26      25
    Jan08-Mar08*          5       110     145   
    
    *current three-month period not yet complete
    Both data sets show similar patterns. There is steady growth in poster base through to at least September 06, with an especially notable purple patch in the period July-September 05 (no idea what the reason for that was).

    Between Oct06 and Mar07 there appears to be a small net loss in posters - this may be partly lag but I suspect that even when all the lagged posters from that period are accounted for there will still be some net loss. This was a relatively contentious time for the forum with numerous suspensions and hydra attacks, however in the case of posters with at least one post, the cause of the net loss in posters is not a significantly higher departure rate during these six months, but a significantly lower recruitment rate. This increased in subsequent months, and will increase further for those months once lag is accounted for. For posters with 10 or more posts there is a spike in apparent departures - in part because a few of them were banned.

    In the six months April-September 07 the stats will show an increase in poster base once lag is accounted for (indeed an increase is already apparent in NJD-NLV for posters with 10 or more posts), and it is obviously too early to say what the patterns are since then except that, accounting for lag, recruitement appears to be healthy.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 18-03-2008 at 01:34 PM.

  12. #162
    CC Grandmaster Adamski's Avatar
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    Just curious

    Just curious, but can I lay claim to being one of the fastest posters to move from Rookie to GM? If not - who holds the record?
    God exists. Short and to the point.

    Secretary of, and regularly arbiter at, Rooty Hill RSL Chess Club. See www.rootyhillchessclub.org.

    Psephological insight. "Controversial will only lose you votes. Courageous will lose you the election." Sir Humphrey Appleby on Yes Minister.

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  13. #163
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono2
    Just curious, but can I lay claim to being one of the fastest posters to move from Rookie to GM? If not - who holds the record?
    Venturing a guess, I would say Gunner Duggan.

    Hey Jono2, you could have a poll on this and then KB posts answer after closing date.

  14. #164
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jono2
    Just curious, but can I lay claim to being one of the fastest posters to move from Rookie to GM? If not — who holds the record?
    I moved pretty fast as well.
    “The history of the 20th century is full of examples of countries that set out to redistribute wealth and ended up redistributing poverty.”
    “There’s no point blaming the tragedies of socialism on the flaws or corruption of particular leaders. Any system which allows some people to exercise unbridled power over others is an open invitation to abuse, whether that system is called slavery or socialism or something else.”—Thomas Sowell

  15. #165
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Between Oct06 and Mar07 there appears to be a small net loss in posters - this may be partly lag but I suspect that even when all the lagged posters from that period are accounted for there will still be some net loss. This was a relatively contentious time for the forum with numerous suspensions and hydra attacks, however in the case of posters with at least one post, the cause of the net loss in posters is not a significantly higher departure rate during these six months, but a significantly lower recruitment rate.
    Trying to recall with no research, was this also the period of the acf motion regarding gp banning/suspensions?

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