1. ^ protected species

Interesting day's play today. Aussies take a first innings lead but India hit back to have us 4 down (with 1 ret hurt currently) with 175 in the lead. We're going to need our tail to wag.

Kohli being a sook over getting out.

2. Tom Latham 264* for NZ vs SL, highest score for an opener "carrying the bat" in a Test match.

3. Aussies going great until lunch, added 50+ without loss. Then collapsed after lunch, losing 4 wickets for 6 runs!

8 down now with a lead of 241, and just the bowlers left.

4. Although carrying the bat sounds impressive it actually more often occurs in losing sides than winning sides, which is quite logical - if it is a result of the rest of the side batting badly it tends to be in a low total, but if an opening batter is batting well enough to carry and others are also doing well, then the side will more often declare. In Test history the sides of bat-carriers have previously scored +15=13-26 (39.8%) Based on regression, the score for a batsman at which the team winning becomes more likely than the team losing is 145*. The same regression gives NZ an expected score for this game of 101%.

5. Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
Although carrying the bat sounds impressive it actually more often occurs in losing sides than winning sides, which is quite logical - if it is a result of the rest of the side batting badly it tends to be in a low total, but if an opening batter is batting well enough to carry and others are also doing well, then the side will more often declare. In Test history the sides of bat-carriers have previously scored +15=13-26 (39.8%) Based on regression, the score for a batsman at which the team winning becomes more likely than the team losing is 145*. The same regression gives NZ a 101% chance of winning.
I bet if someone hadn't carried the bat they would have done a whole lot worse.

6. Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
The same regression gives NZ an expected score for this game of 101%.
Sri Lanka have put a dent in that by batting a whole day without losing a wicket, going from 3-13 to 3-259 (which is effectively 3 for minus 37). Also it is likely to rain on the final day.

7. Sri Lanka got a draw so the revised regression says you have to carry your bat for 283* for an expected team score of 100%.

There's bound to be some non-linear way of doing this that works better.