Federal Election 2022

[MichaelBaron]

Every worker has the right to accept or renegotiate an EA or find another job. But very few have the labour-laws expertise to represent themselves successfully.

Enterprise Bargaining was introduced in 1996 which allowed workers and their unions to negotiate directly with their employer over pay and conditions. Evidence from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that collective bargaining delivers better wages than individual agreements for ordinary workers.

Expertise does not grow on trees. If a person is not intellectually disabled (in this case there is a guardian/power of attorney to take care of him/her). Can read and learn and ask questions. There should be laws protecting rights of disabled etc. If a person is considered to be fully responsible for own actions - should be encouraged to make career/personal and professional growth plans and execute those plans.

[Scott Colliver]

There are a lot of independents who seem to have a reasonable chance of being cometitive in seats so I thought I would make a list of them.

Allegra Spender - Wentworth - Seems to be favourite to deffeat sitting member Dave Sharma
Jo Dyer - Boothby - Probably the least likely of those who I am going to list, but if she gets a reasonable vote it might delay a result in this key seat.
Monique Ryan - Kooyong - Has a good chance of defeating Josh Frydenburg
Zoe Daniel - Goldstein - Has an excellent chance
Sophie Scamps - Mackellar - Has a good chance of getting 2nd but will need a big swing away from the Liberals
Liz Habermann - Grey - Will probably get to second, but can she take enough votes off the Liberals to win the seat.
Jake Dempsey - Hinkler - Former Minister state Liberal Government and current Mayor of Bundaburg, so has a high profile but no real idea how he is going to go.
Kate Chaney - Curtin - Seems to have an excellent chance of winning
Rob Priestly - Nichols - Seems to be worrying the Nationals in a seat where the Liberals are also running a candidate.
Stuart Bonds - Hunter - Probably only a long shot but Bonds got over 20% at the previous election as a One Nation candidate.
Dai Le - Fowler - It seems she will poll strongly but probably will not beat Keneally
Kylea Tink - North Sydney - Is putting together a strong challenge to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman

In addition to these possible newcomers the current independents, Steggal - Waringah, Haines - Indi, Wilkie - Clark and minor party members Sharkie - Mayo, Katter - Kennedy and Bandt - Melbourne all seem to be in good positions to be reelected.

The Greens, as always, seem confident of getting a second seat but I don't think they will.

In the senate there is at least 2 independents who seem to have good chances of winning. Nick Xenophon who is aiming to return to the Senate in SA and David Pocock who might win a seat in the ACT.

I missed a couple who may poll well
Nicolette Boele - Bradfield
Caz Heise - Cowper
And there might even be more.

[MichaelBaron]

Btw, unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9%.

[Ian Rout]

I missed a couple who may poll well
Nicolette Boele - Bradfield
Caz Heise - Cowper
And there might even be more.

Craig Garland (Braddon) seems to like his chances. He is close to winning the poster count around my area.

One of his big things is opposition to mooted salmon farms off the NW Tas coast. He is also a darling of the umbrella group supporting "freedom-loving" (= anti-vaxx/pro-covid) parties, but while the other groups have their attitude front and centre in their campaigning Craig is somewhat oblique about it.

His salmon position should get some traction in the western parts but maybe not go so well in Devonport - one of the salmon outfits is based there so they have two reasons to be in favour of salmon farms somewhere else.

[Scott Colliver]

Craig Garland (Braddon) seems to like his chances. He is close to winning the poster count around my area.

One of his big things is opposition to mooted salmon farms off the NW Tas coast. He is also a darling of the umbrella group supporting "freedom-loving" (= anti-vaxx/pro-covid) parties, but while the other groups have their attitude front and centre in their campaigning Craig is somewhat oblique about it.

His salmon position should get some traction in the western parts but maybe not go so well in Devonport - one of the salmon outfits is based there so they have two reasons to be in favour of salmon farms somewhere else.

I don't think he is likely to get more than around 10% so I did not include him, but I might be proven wrong

And as an aside I agree that salmon farming is toxic, it should be banned.

[Ian Murray]

Expertise does not grow on trees. If a person is not intellectually disabled (in this case there is a guardian/power of attorney to take care of him/her). Can read and learn and ask questions. There should be laws protecting rights of disabled etc. If a person is considered to be fully responsible for own actions - should be encouraged to make career/personal and professional growth plans and execute those plans.

Right Why should lawyers study and practise industrial relations law when anyone can DIY?

[Ian Rout]

I don't think he is likely to get more than around 10% so I did not include him, but I might be proven wrong.

A reasonable forecast given his PB. But he's more professional this time, having lots of spiffy posters and recruiting booth workers.

Braddon could well be a bit of a mess. There are ten candidates, none the sort whose mates trick them into signing up while drunk, do no campaigning and score 150 votes. Of course the minor parties are mainly standing as a loss leader for the Senate, but several could poll higher than the gap at the end. The Greens candidate, a doctor, is more respectable than some; the Local Party (are they fans of the League of Gentlemen?) have a prominent arty identity; and the One Nation candidate is a colourful local character, or at least his alpaca is.

[Kevin Bonham]

I missed a couple who may poll well
Nicolette Boele - Bradfield
Caz Heise - Cowper
And there might even be more.

Georgia Steele (Hughes) is almost equal favourite in betting.

[Scott Colliver]

Georgia Steele (Hughes) is almost equal favourite in betting.

Yeah, I tried but I failed in making a comprehensive list. It is not beyond the bounds of possibilty that there could be 15 independents in the Parliament, but I don't think it will be that many.

[Scott Colliver]

My prediction for the election is
Labor 77, Coalition 61, Independents 8, KAP 1, CA 1, Green 1

I might have underestimated the amount of independents.
The Greens claim they are going to win Griffith and perhaps Brisbane and maybe others but I do not see it.

I am predicting Liz Habermann to win the SA seat of Grey.
She has a high profile and a record of success in campaigning for voluntary euthansia which was made legal last June.
She has proved she can be a vote winner in the area due to her all winning the seat of Flinders in the state election.
The electorate proved is was willing to vote for a 3rd party candidate in 2016 when Andrea Broadfoot went very close to winning. The Liberals should have less support this time.

[Scott Colliver]

Kevin, what are you plans for tomorrow night?

[Patrick Byrom]

True, they might be wrong again. However they are all we have to go by.

It's unlikely they'll be wrong again, especially as they are far more decisive for Labor this time. Although I still can't believe that the Greens will win Ryan!

It's strange that nobody has voted for a Labor minority government, even though all the likely adjacent options on both sides are taken.

[Patrick Byrom]

As I had a few hours to fill in I put an entry into Rupert's "SuperVoter" competition which involves selecting 151 winners. It transpired that I had Labor winning 76-68-7 so to be consistent I've gone for the same here (Labor 1-9).

Good luck - predicting every seat is almost impossible, as there's bound to be some surprises.

[MichaelBaron]

It is amazing that Albanese is likely to win given that the word ''economics'' makes him run.

[Ian Murray]

It is amazing that Albanese is likely to win given that the word ''economics'' makes him run.

A lack-lustre opposition vs a corrupt government. The choice is not so amazing.