View Poll Results: Who will win or go furthest in the World Cup (Pick up to 3 players)

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  • Carlsen [OUT]

    10 62.50%
  • Caruana [OUT]

    5 31.25%
  • Aronian [WITHDREW]

    2 12.50%
  • Giri [OUT]

    8 50.00%
  • Grischuk [OUT]

    1 6.25%
  • Mamedyarov [OUT]

    3 18.75%
  • Vachier-Lagrave [OUT]

    3 18.75%
  • Firoujza [OUT]

    4 25.00%
  • Dominguez [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Karjakin [RUNNER-UP]

    3 18.75%
  • Harikrishna [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Duda [WINNER]

    1 6.25%
  • Vidit Santosh Gujrathi [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Andreikin [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Vitiugov [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Esipenko [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Dubov [OUT]

    2 12.50%
  • Svidler [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Vallejo Pons [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Xiong [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Tomashevsky [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Yu Yangyi [OUT]

    1 6.25%
  • Artemiev [OUT]

    1 6.25%
  • Amin [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Van Foreest [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Alekseenko [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Kryvoruchko [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Gelfand [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Cheng [OUT]

    0 0%
  • Other (NAME IN THREAD)

    0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #211
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Interesting from reading the regulations that both finals are only two classical games, whereas in the past the final has been four games.

  2. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott Colliver View Post
    We have our semi finals

    Carlsen - Duda
    Fedoseev - Karjakin

    Duda has the luxury of a guaranteed two chances to win a match to get to the candidates.
    Having too much spare time, I was musing last week whether it's an advantage to play Carlsen in the semi-finals because you are guaranteed a second chance, whereas losing the other semi is less likely but you need to rely on Carlsen winning his semi. So now Duda has got to that position I tried to test it.

    Suppose we say C has a 60% likelihood of beating D or K, they both have a 60% chance against F and are 50:50 against each other.

    Then D needs to beat C (.40), or lose to C and beat either K (.6 x .4 x .5 = .12) or F (.6 x .6 x .6 = .216). So he has a 73.6% chance.

    On the other hand K needs to win (.60) the semi, or if he loses he needs to have C win (otherwise both places are taken) and then beat D (.4 x .6 x .5 = .12), total 72%.

    F's chances are .4 (winning the semi) + .6 x .6 x .4 (winning on the second chance) = .144, total 54.4%.

    As a cross-check the total is 200% (recalling there are two places).

    So although we've assumed D and K to have identical profiles, D is better off being in his own position than K's.

  3. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Rout View Post
    Having too much spare time, I was musing last week whether it's an advantage to play Carlsen in the semi-finals because you are guaranteed a second chance, whereas losing the other semi is less likely but you need to rely on Carlsen winning his semi. So now Duda has got to that position I tried to test it.

    Suppose we say C has a 60% likelihood of beating D or K, they both have a 60% chance against F and are 50:50 against each other.

    Then D needs to beat C (.40), or lose to C and beat either K (.6 x .4 x .5 = .12) or F (.6 x .6 x .6 = .216). So he has a 73.6% chance.

    On the other hand K needs to win (.60) the semi, or if he loses he needs to have C win (otherwise both places are taken) and then beat D (.4 x .6 x .5 = .12), total 72%.

    F's chances are .4 (winning the semi) + .6 x .6 x .4 (winning on the second chance) = .144, total 54.4%.

    As a cross-check the total is 200% (recalling there are two places).

    So although we've assumed D and K to have identical profiles, D is better off being in his own position than K's.
    Karjakin is a better player than Duda so why are they given the same chance against Carlsen?

  4. #214
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott Colliver View Post
    Karjakin is a better player than Duda so why are they given the same chance against Carlsen?
    A couple of reasons. One is just using round numbers to simplify the model (recalling that the outcome of Carlsen v Karjakin isn't relevant). The other is it's not clear that Karjakin has much more chance, if at all, than Duda; he's only twenty points and four places higher rated, and lower in rapid and blitz.

  5. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Rout View Post
    A couple of reasons. One is just using round numbers to simplify the model (recalling that the outcome of Carlsen v Karjakin isn't relevant). The other is it's not clear that Karjakin has much more chance, if at all, than Duda; he's only twenty points and four places higher rated, and lower in rapid and blitz.
    FIDE rapid and blitz ratings are a joke, there is simply too many players with far to low ratings to use them reliably for anything.

    I would back Karjakin to beat Duda quite comfortably in a long match.

  6. #216
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    Goryachkina or Kosteniuk? Who is everyone picking?

    I have already said I am going for Goryachkina in tie breaks

  7. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott Colliver View Post
    Goryachkina or Kosteniuk? Who is everyone picking?

    I have already said I am going for Goryachkina in tie breaks
    Goryachkina is much stronger ...Kosteniuk's only chance is her nerves of steel!
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  8. #218
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    In the mens semifinals I think Carlsen will beat Duda fairly easily, 2-0
    Fedoseev will get a bit closer to Karjakin but I go 1.5 - 0.5

  9. #219
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    Fedoseev - Karjakin and the womens third place game between Anna Muzchuk and Zhongyi Tan have the same position

  10. #220
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    It looks like Kosteniuk has good chances to hold against Goryachkina but there is still plenty of play in the position and Goryachkina is not going to give up soon

  11. #221
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    Duda holds Carlsen to a draw and gets to play for a win as white

  12. #222
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    Goryachkina - Kosteniuk turns into a tactical melee and then a very complicated endgame that Kosteniuk eventually won.

  13. #223
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    This was Kosteniuk's first win as black against Goryachkina in any format, although they might have played online blitz or something like that.

    Goryachkina beat Kosteniuk with black once at the Skolkovo FIDE GP (Women) in 2019, one of their most recent games.

  14. #224
    Account Shoutbox Banned antichrist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott Colliver View Post
    This was Kosteniuk's first win as black against Goryachkina in any format, although they might have played online blitz or something like that.

    Goryachkina beat Kosteniuk with black once at the Skolkovo FIDE GP (Women) in 2019, one of their most recent games.
    Your prediction of Duda getting thrashed by Carlsen didn't hold up very well.
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  15. #225
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    K vs. G. = amazing result!
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