2021 FIDE World Champs Carlsen vs Nepomniachtchi. Dubai Nov 24 - Dec 16

[Ian Rout]

Bwin has framed quite a few more markets. Just remember: Gamble responsibly!

Repeating a strategy I've proposed previously, I recommend betting $66.89 on Carlsen to win outright, $15.05 on Nepo and $18.06 on going to a playoff (or proportionally). Regardless of the outcome you will get $90.30 of your $100 back, losing only $9.70 and you can produce the betting slip to prove you predicted it.

[Leonid Sandler]

Repeating a strategy I've proposed previously, I recommend betting $66.89 on Carlsen to win outright, $15.05 on Nepo and $18.06 on going to a playoff (or proportionally). Regardless of the outcome you will get $90.30 of your $100 back, losing only $9.70 and you can produce the betting slip to prove you predicted it.

IMHO Nepo will win 7.5-5.5.

[Metro]

Repeating a strategy I've proposed previously, I recommend betting $66.89 on Carlsen to win outright, $15.05 on Nepo and $18.06 on going to a playoff (or proportionally). Regardless of the outcome you will get $90.30 of your $100 back, losing only $9.70 and you can produce the betting slip to prove you predicted it.

Why would I want to do that and lose money?

[idledim]

Repeating a strategy I've proposed previously, I recommend betting $66.89 on Carlsen to win outright, $15.05 on Nepo and $18.06 on going to a playoff (or proportionally). Regardless of the outcome you will get $90.30 of your $100 back, losing only $9.70 and you can produce the betting slip to prove you predicted it.

Bookies love punters like you!

$66.89 @ 1:5 returns $80.27 (whether Carlsen wins in classical or play-off)
$15.05 @ 13:4 returns $63.96 (whether Nepo wins in classical or play-off)
$18.06 @ 4:1 returns $90.30 (if there's a play-off)

So: if no playoff:

+ Carlsen wins: you lose $19.73
+ Nepo wins: you lose $36.04

If playoff:

+ Carlsen wins: 80.27 + 90.30 – 15.05 = 155.52 = 55.52 profit.
+ Nepo wins: 63.96 + 90.30 – 66.89 = 87.37 = 12.63 loss.

A simpler rule: odds on / look on.

[Ian Rout]

Bookies love punters like you!

$66.89 @ 1:5 returns $80.27 (whether Carlsen wins in classical or play-off)
$15.05 @ 13:4 returns $63.96 (whether Nepo wins in classical or play-off)
$18.06 @ 4:1 returns $90.30 (if there's a play-off)

So: if no playoff:

+ Carlsen wins: you lose $19.73
+ Nepo wins: you lose $36.04

If playoff:

+ Carlsen wins: 80.27 + 90.30 – 15.05 = 155.52 = 55.52 profit.
+ Nepo wins: 63.96 + 90.30 – 66.89 = 87.37 = 12.63 loss.

A simpler rule: odds on / look on.

My bets were for betting on the three scenarios of outright (classical / 14-game), not final, result - ref post 19. Either player winning eventually is of course shorter.

On an unrelated discussion, the theory is that Nepo will force the pace and there will be lots of intense games but I'm not sure this is the case. Alekhine was supposed to play that way in 1927 but turned up with a more mature positional approach.

[idledim]

My bets were for betting on the three scenarios of outright (classical / 14-game), not final, result - ref post 19.

Yep - the maths make sense if outright really means classical - even if the idea of losing 10 bucks whatever happens doesn't.

If I had a bet, I'd probably take the 5:1 on offer for Nepo (with 50 cents on the 11:4 for either player to win 2 games in a row).

[Desmond]

chess24 coverage will feature Judit Polgar and Giri - both excellent IMO. I'll start there. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcW-...hannel=chess24
FIDE coverage has Anand and Muzychuk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1XF...nnel=FIDEchess

[Scott Colliver]

chess24 coverage will feature Judit Polgar and Giri - both excellent IMO. I'll start there. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcW-...hannel=chess24
FIDE coverage has Anand and Muzychuk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1XF...nnel=FIDEchess

Chess24 have David Howell who is a terrible commentator, hate him and Tania Sachdev who I also hate so definitely not watching them.

[Metro]

chess.com features Caruana and Hou Yifan and co.

[MichaelBaron]

if I get the time, will simply follow games on chessbomb without commentary but with engine running. Its very covinient: can do work at the computer and every now and then check whats going on in the game.

[Kevin Bonham]

Game 1 (Nepo white):

PGN Viewer

 

[MichaelBaron]

g6 instead of Kf8 in game one...and white's position would be very unpleasant!

[Frank]

On the chess24 coverage of the match by GM Anish Giri and GM Judith Polgar, there is an extensive interlude about Australian chess ("sad" but sympathetic) by Hungarian coach IM Andreas Toth [Corrected: Andras Toth](a permanent resident in Australia as primary school teacher and now here for 15 years who had coached Junta Ikeda and Andrew Brown and is a tennis partner of Anton Smirnov) at about Move 12 of Game 2, see https://chess24.com/en/watch/live-to...hip-2021/1/1/2

[ER]

( ... ) had coached Junta Ikeda and Andrew Brown

If I am not mistaken IM Andreas Toth has coached WFM, IA Alana Chibnall as well!

[Kevin Bonham]

Game 2 (Carlsen white):

PGN Viewer