View Poll Results: PICK THE WINNER AND THE MARGIN

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  • Carlsen wins by seven or more games

    1 4.17%
  • Carlsen wins by six games

    0 0%
  • Carlsen wins by five games

    0 0%
  • Carlsen wins by four games

    0 0%
  • Carlsen wins by three games

    4 16.67%
  • Carlsen wins by two games

    9 37.50%
  • Carlsen wins by one game

    6 25.00%
  • Carlsen wins in playoff

    2 8.33%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins in playoff

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by one game

    2 8.33%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by two games

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by three games

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by four games

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by five games

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by six games

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by seven games

    0 0%
  • Match does not happen or not completed for whatever reason

    0 0%
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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desmond View Post
    Carlsen's reported comment that he considers Nepomniachtchi, the world no. 5, to be “a wild card” and still thinks the no. 3 Fabiano Caruana and no. 2 Ding Liren would pose a bigger challenge for him "shows that the match has already begun in earnest, and not with the first move on Friday.

  2. #17
    CC International Master Metro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank View Post
    Carlsen's reported comment that he considers Nepomniachtchi, the world no. 5, to be “a wild card” and still thinks the no. 3 Fabiano Caruana and no. 2 Ding Liren would pose a bigger challenge for him "shows that the match has already begun in earnest, and not with the first move on Friday.
    From a psychology point of view,that is not a smart thing to say.It may provide Nepo with ammunition.Magnus did say Nepo can be hard to beat.

  3. #18
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank View Post
    Carlsen's reported comment that he considers Nepomniachtchi, the world no. 5, to be “a wild card” and still thinks the no. 3 Fabiano Caruana and no. 2 Ding Liren would pose a bigger challenge for him "shows that the match has already begun in earnest, and not with the first move on Friday.
    Yes, and also he is completely correct with his comments. Also his comments a while back that he expects to win because he is "better at chess". He is brilliant and a troll.
    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desmond View Post
    lulz

    https://chess24.com/en/read/news/car...t-fabi-or-ding

    "... The World Champion, who has reigned since 2013 and been the world no. 1 consecutively since 2011, doesn't think Nepomniachtchi would have won the Candidates if the event hadn't been split in two.

    Because he lost the last game in the first half of the tournament. He rarely plays well after having lost. Now he managed it eventually and has started to become more pragmatic.

    Carlsen says he considers Nepomniachtchi, the world no. 5, to be “a wild card” and still thinks the no. 3 Fabiano Caruana and no. 2 Ding Liren would pose a bigger challenge for him.

    I would say they are the best. I thought beforehand that anyone else would be a good outcome for me, and I still feel that way."
    Nepo was equal first after the first half of the Candidates, so if any other player except MVL had won there would have been a stronger case that it was due to the break.

    I wouldn't read an enormous amount into him being number 5. It's a handful of points and ratings bob up and down - in fact he's 5 on the "live" ratings, but on the official ratings he's =4 and had he sat on his post-Candidates rating would have been 3.

    More significant is the 70+ difference between Magnus and Nepo. On this basis Carlsen by 2 is a tempting choice. You can see a scenario where Carlsen wins a game and then Nepo, with nothing to lose, goes berserk and loses another. Maybe then another.

    But on the other hand you have to take note of the experts. The present FIDE administration, while a slight improvement over the last one, is equally infected with armagedditis, the notion that chess has to be sold to wrestling fans and other peasants by deciding any competition with a clock-thumping circus at the earliest opportunity. So it follows that while they have extended the match by two games they must still be confident that it won't be sufficient to separate the players.

    Carlsen has won the last two WC matches with a total score in long games of +1 =22 -1. Partly this reflects the stubbornness of the challengers, partly his preference at the end for the lottery of a faster but longer match to the lottery of a single game. It's possible that after winning 1 in 24 (and that win a little streaky) in those matches he can win 2 out of 14 with a more co-operative opponent. But I think a playoff is a realistic scenario.

    Incidentally the bookies (well one of them) have Carlsen 7/20, Nepo 5/1 and a tie 4/1 in normal time. All games drawn is 20/1 which seems a bit generous seeing it's only two more games than the last match, when that really happened.

  5. #20
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Rout View Post
    Nepo was equal first after the first half of the Candidates, so if any other player except MVL had won there would have been a stronger case that it was due to the break.

    I wouldn't read an enormous amount into him being number 5. It's a handful of points and ratings bob up and down - in fact he's 5 on the "live" ratings, but on the official ratings he's =4 and had he sat on his post-Candidates rating would have been 3.
    I don't think Nepo is a wildcard because he is #5, I think he is a wildcard because he's not really considered the best candidate to beat Magnus in a match.

    More significant is the 70+ difference between Magnus and Nepo. On this basis Carlsen by 2 is a tempting choice. You can see a scenario where Carlsen wins a game and then Nepo, with nothing to lose, goes berserk and loses another. Maybe then another.
    Let's hope so, will make for an exciting match. If Carlsen is the one to fall behind, he has the experience in bridging the gap.

    But on the other hand you have to take note of the experts. The present FIDE administration, while a slight improvement over the last one, is equally infected with armagedditis, the notion that chess has to be sold to wrestling fans and other peasants by deciding any competition with a clock-thumping circus at the earliest opportunity.
    Another idea (such as promoted by Finegold) is to have the tiebreak before the main match. This way, at least one player must play to win the classical match. You don't get a situation where both players are happy to steer for the clockthumping section.
    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desmond View Post
    I don't think Nepo is a wildcard because he is #5, I think he is a wildcard because he's not really considered the best candidate to beat Magnus in a match.
    Arguably. But Caruana, although playing some good games, has appeared a little inconsistent of late. Ding, while he doesn't seem a nervy type off the board, has had some stumbles in big events - two World Cup finals, 20/21 Candidates. MVL has been quiet and isn't number 1 in his own country now. Maybe there just isn't a really scary opponent - this time.

    Another idea (such as promoted by Finegold) is to have the tiebreak before the main match. This way, at least one player must play to win the classical match. You don't get a situation where both players are happy to steer for the clockthumping section.
    Not a bad idea - I've had the same thought myself, as no doubt have others.

    The catch may be the same as with draw odds for the champion - the de facto extra half-point gives the holder a large advantage, especially in a short match. Hence it brings the clock thumping even more prominently into the match. One player certainly wants to avoid a tie, but the other has no fear of it and indeed would welcome it. So maybe a lot of Berlins and Londons.

    If Carlsen wins comfortably (a big Nepo win is at the unlikely end, though you never know) people may lose interest, but if there is yet another low-scoring tie it might inspire FIDE to be seen to be addressing the question.

  7. #22
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    For what it may be worth, this statistical article (which does contain at least one minor error!) notes a finding that favourites almost always underperform their rating in these things.
    https://chessnumbers.wordpress.com/2...match-preview/
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  8. #23
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Rout View Post
    Arguably. But Caruana, although playing some good games, has appeared a little inconsistent of late. Ding, while he doesn't seem a nervy type off the board, has had some stumbles in big events - two World Cup finals, 20/21 Candidates. MVL has been quiet and isn't number 1 in his own country now. Maybe there just isn't a really scary opponent - this time.
    To my mind, it's not even really about form, such as form may play a part at all in a candidates played so long ago and episodically. More about style.

    Nepo has a much more swashbuckling style than, I think, is generally considered wise in this type of format. Will Nepo play to his style, or will he revert to more traditional solid style for this match? I hope he plays the Winawer, but I don't think he will, except maybe as a last resort. Playing outside his usual style has its own risks.

    Then you have Caruana. I don't think it should be underestimated the HUGE advantage that he has, in that he has been on this stage before, and held Carlsen to = over 12 games. Imagine the huge amount of preparation that goes into a match like this. He's done it, pretty recently. That is huge advantage for him as a chance to win the match over other contenders, IMO.

    Not a bad idea - I've had the same thought myself, as no doubt have others.

    The catch may be the same as with draw odds for the champion - the de facto extra half-point gives the holder a large advantage, especially in a short match. Hence it brings the clock thumping even more prominently into the match. One player certainly wants to avoid a tie, but the other has no fear of it and indeed would welcome it. So maybe a lot of Berlins and Londons.
    Yes it gives draw odds to the winner of the tiebreak. IMO this is better than giving draw odds to the current champion, which is just too much. At least you have 1 player who has to try to win.
    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  9. #24
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  10. #25
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    Grandmaster, FIDE Trainer, 2018-19 Australian Champion

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  11. #26
    CC International Master Metro's Avatar
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    is this a comedy?


  12. #27
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    "stuff dreams are made of" from the play The Tempest, by William Shakespeare. It is spoken by the magician Prospero.

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    Last edited by ER; 25-11-2021 at 03:09 PM.
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  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Metro View Post
    I quote from the FIDE report [https://fide.com/news/1446]:

    The Q&A session was then kicked off by panel chairman and match commentator Maurice Ashley, who wanted to know how both players felt now that the contest was finally at hand after months of preparation.

    Ian's "I can't wait to actually get started" was delivered with a calm smile, and Magnus raised the banter level by saying: "I'm going to feel better in a few days," leaning back, arms crossed, with a wide grin.

    When asked why they were going to win this match, Carlsen chose to deflect and joke that he 'predicted' the victor would be the one with the most points over the coming three weeks, while Nepomniachtchi opted for "Normally, I think the best player wins," and looked pleased to have found a simple, confident answer that looks neutral in print...

    The players complimented several of the questions, and after the slightly cheeky start, the answers grew more serious and the interplay carefully respectful. Nepomniachtchi's summary of prior good relations between the two was particularly striking and quotable: "Once you sit at the board, you have no friends."

  14. #29
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    Since I missed the poll closing, my vote is 'Nepo wins in playoff' solely because no one else picked it
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  15. #30
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    Carlsen @ 1: 5; Nepo @ 13:4 (or 5:1 if you think he'll be the champ after classical games, and 11:1 if you think he'll win 3 or more classical games )

    Bwin has framed quite a few more markets. Just remember: Gamble responsibly!

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