View Poll Results: PICK THE WINNER AND THE MARGIN

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  • Carlsen wins by seven or more games

    1 4.17%
  • Carlsen wins by six games

    0 0%
  • Carlsen wins by five games

    0 0%
  • Carlsen wins by four games

    0 0%
  • Carlsen wins by three games

    4 16.67%
  • Carlsen wins by two games

    9 37.50%
  • Carlsen wins by one game

    6 25.00%
  • Carlsen wins in playoff

    2 8.33%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins in playoff

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by one game

    2 8.33%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by two games

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by three games

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by four games

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by five games

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by six games

    0 0%
  • Nepomniachtchi wins by seven games

    0 0%
  • Match does not happen or not completed for whatever reason

    0 0%
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  1. #31
    CC International Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by idledim View Post
    Bwin has framed quite a few more markets. Just remember: Gamble responsibly!
    Repeating a strategy I've proposed previously, I recommend betting $66.89 on Carlsen to win outright, $15.05 on Nepo and $18.06 on going to a playoff (or proportionally). Regardless of the outcome you will get $90.30 of your $100 back, losing only $9.70 and you can produce the betting slip to prove you predicted it.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Rout View Post
    Repeating a strategy I've proposed previously, I recommend betting $66.89 on Carlsen to win outright, $15.05 on Nepo and $18.06 on going to a playoff (or proportionally). Regardless of the outcome you will get $90.30 of your $100 back, losing only $9.70 and you can produce the betting slip to prove you predicted it.
    IMHO Nepo will win 7.5-5.5.

  3. #33
    CC International Master Metro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Rout View Post
    Repeating a strategy I've proposed previously, I recommend betting $66.89 on Carlsen to win outright, $15.05 on Nepo and $18.06 on going to a playoff (or proportionally). Regardless of the outcome you will get $90.30 of your $100 back, losing only $9.70 and you can produce the betting slip to prove you predicted it.
    Why would I want to do that and lose money?

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Rout View Post
    Repeating a strategy I've proposed previously, I recommend betting $66.89 on Carlsen to win outright, $15.05 on Nepo and $18.06 on going to a playoff (or proportionally). Regardless of the outcome you will get $90.30 of your $100 back, losing only $9.70 and you can produce the betting slip to prove you predicted it.
    Bookies love punters like you!

    $66.89 @ 1:5 returns $80.27 (whether Carlsen wins in classical or play-off)
    $15.05 @ 13:4 returns $63.96 (whether Nepo wins in classical or play-off)
    $18.06 @ 4:1 returns $90.30 (if there's a play-off)

    So: if no playoff:

    + Carlsen wins: you lose $19.73
    + Nepo wins: you lose $36.04

    If playoff:

    + Carlsen wins: 80.27 + 90.30 – 15.05 = 155.52 = 55.52 profit.
    + Nepo wins: 63.96 + 90.30 – 66.89 = 87.37 = 12.63 loss.

    A simpler rule: odds on / look on.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by idledim View Post
    Bookies love punters like you!

    $66.89 @ 1:5 returns $80.27 (whether Carlsen wins in classical or play-off)
    $15.05 @ 13:4 returns $63.96 (whether Nepo wins in classical or play-off)
    $18.06 @ 4:1 returns $90.30 (if there's a play-off)

    So: if no playoff:

    + Carlsen wins: you lose $19.73
    + Nepo wins: you lose $36.04

    If playoff:

    + Carlsen wins: 80.27 + 90.30 – 15.05 = 155.52 = 55.52 profit.
    + Nepo wins: 63.96 + 90.30 – 66.89 = 87.37 = 12.63 loss.

    A simpler rule: odds on / look on.
    My bets were for betting on the three scenarios of outright (classical / 14-game), not final, result - ref post 19. Either player winning eventually is of course shorter.

    On an unrelated discussion, the theory is that Nepo will force the pace and there will be lots of intense games but I'm not sure this is the case. Alekhine was supposed to play that way in 1927 but turned up with a more mature positional approach.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Rout View Post
    My bets were for betting on the three scenarios of outright (classical / 14-game), not final, result - ref post 19.
    Yep - the maths make sense if outright really means classical - even if the idea of losing 10 bucks whatever happens doesn't.

    If I had a bet, I'd probably take the 5:1 on offer for Nepo (with 50 cents on the 11:4 for either player to win 2 games in a row).

  7. #37
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    chess24 coverage will feature Judit Polgar and Giri - both excellent IMO. I'll start there. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcW-...hannel=chess24
    FIDE coverage has Anand and Muzychuk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1XF...nnel=FIDEchess
    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desmond View Post
    chess24 coverage will feature Judit Polgar and Giri - both excellent IMO. I'll start there. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcW-...hannel=chess24
    FIDE coverage has Anand and Muzychuk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1XF...nnel=FIDEchess
    Chess24 have David Howell who is a terrible commentator, hate him and Tania Sachdev who I also hate so definitely not watching them.

  9. #39
    CC International Master Metro's Avatar
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    chess.com features Caruana and Hou Yifan and co.

  10. #40
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    if I get the time, will simply follow games on chessbomb without commentary but with engine running. Its very covinient: can do work at the computer and every now and then check whats going on in the game.
    Interested in Chess Lessons?
    Email webbaron!@gmail.com for more Info!

  11. #41
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Game 1 (Nepo white):

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  12. #42
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    g6 instead of Kf8 in game one...and white's position would be very unpleasant!
    Interested in Chess Lessons?
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  13. #43
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    On the chess24 coverage of the match by GM Anish Giri and GM Judith Polgar, there is an extensive interlude about Australian chess ("sad" but sympathetic) by Hungarian coach IM Andreas Toth (a permanent resident in Australia as primary school teacher and now here for 15 years who had coached Junta Ikeda and Andrew Brown and is a tennis partner of Anton Smirnov) at about Move 12 of Game 2, see https://chess24.com/en/watch/live-to...hip-2021/1/1/2

  14. #44
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank View Post
    ( ... ) had coached Junta Ikeda and Andrew Brown
    If I am not mistaken IM Andreas Toth has coached WFM, IA Alana Chibnall as well!
    Last edited by ER; 28-11-2021 at 02:18 AM.
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