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  1. #16
    Premium Member ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaun94 View Post
    Thanks zhuminze, that's a very interesting graph
    Ditto!
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  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by ER View Post
    Ditto!
    Hey Elliot, as someone who i know has played in tournaments throughout Australia, have you noticed any sort of differences state to state? I know this would not be considered evidence either way more just asking about your experiences and opinion.

  3. #18
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    It seems QLD juniors relatively show better performance than their rating indicated. For example, have a look at the U14 division ACJJ 2020, the top three players from different states. Ly-Liu Alexavier with the lower rating (ACF 1497) but had better performance.
    ACJJ U14.jpg
    It might be claimed that it is only a single case with coincidence. However, NSW player Peramunetilleke, Seth (ACF 1672) had participated in recent QLD junior 2020 and finished with 5.0/8.0, ranking around 16, while Ly-Liu Alexavier finished with 7.5/8.0 and equal 1st. Similar things could be observed in U10 division, another NSW player Peramunetulleke, Savin (ACF 1156) finished with 4.0/8.0, compared with Noah Rose (ACF 1086) won the title with a score of 8.0/8.0.

    Admit there might be some home advantage, but doubt this advantage can play such a significant difference.

  4. #19
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Looking at finishing position vs start ID (which is based on ACF rating) it does seem that in the last two Aus Juniors, Queensland players with ratings tended to finish above their seeding in the U14s and U12s after ignoring all unrated players, with the exception of the 2018 U14 where the sample size of Queensland players (7) was small. The difference isn't massive (a few places on average) but looks significant.

    In general stronger juniors who play a lot of their rated games against juniors are more likely to be underrated than those who play mainly adults, and this frequently leads to Tasmanian juniors underperforming compared to rating in the Aus Juniors (for example). This may be not only because of juniors being more likely to be underrated, but also I suspect that strong juniors are more erratic against weak juniors than they are against weak adults.
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  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Looking at finishing position vs start ID (which is based on ACF rating) it does seem that in the last two Aus Juniors, Queensland players with ratings tended to finish above their seeding in the U14s and U12s after ignoring all unrated players, with the exception of the 2018 U14 where the sample size of Queensland players (7) was small. The difference isn't massive (a few places on average) but looks significant.

    In general stronger juniors who play a lot of their rated games against juniors are more likely to be underrated than those who play mainly adults, and this frequently leads to Tasmanian juniors underperforming compared to rating in the Aus Juniors (for example). This may be not only because of juniors being more likely to be underrated, but also I suspect that strong juniors are more erratic against weak juniors than they are against weak adults.
    That being said do you believe there is a solution (if any) or if there is a need for something to be done about this?

    I don't think ratings are overly important in general but good points have been made re selections and tournament eligibility. This could mean a lot to some players, if juniors in a state are potentially under rated and there is a large number of said under rated juniors this would then weaken the adult pool also.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaun94 View Post
    Thanks zhuminze, that's a very interesting graph
    But does it take into account that the MCC and Rooty Hill events are being paired by FIDE ratings, not ACF ratings (except where there's no FIDE rating) like the other events?

  7. #22
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    Good question, this might cause some deviation. As lack of FIDE event, I think the FIDE rating is relatively less accurate, especially for QLD junior. The graph is the general comparison of distribution trend. As the majority of players in these three event in QLD are juniors, with around 60% - 80% are junior under 18 and approximately 40% under 12. While the players in tournament (NSW and VIC) have more adults, whose rating is much stable than juniors and possess less deviation between different rating system. This might not change the heavy bottom of rating distribution in QLD event compared to others.

  8. #23
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    And much agree rating is not overly important. However, thanks for the great event organizers and successful coaches in QLD, we can see more and more keen QLD juniors participate into tournaments in future, and these probably cause some impact and problem to the rating system.

  9. #24
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    Aus Day weekender: Many juniors (e.g. Gao and Fan) performed significantly above their ratings and took a lot of points from seniors. This is normal in every state of Australia...as well as internationally!
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  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron View Post
    Aus Day weekender: Many juniors (e.g. Gao and Fan) performed significantly above their ratings and took a lot of points from seniors. This is normal in every state of Australia...as well as internationally!
    Of course juniors taking points off adults is normal, the difference is more around the overall pool of players being deflated in QLD. Australian Juniors among other events show a substantial difference. Arthur Gao is a very talented junior I have met him multiple times, I do however point to the performance ratings of QLD players in comparison to their ACF rating and then compare that to that of VIC and NSW.

    The Australian Juniors were dominated by Queenslanders in 2020 and in many cases this was not expected based on ACF ratings.

  11. #26
    Premium Member ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaun94 View Post
    Hey Elliot, as someone who i know has played in tournaments throughout Australia, have you noticed any sort of differences state to state? I know this would not be considered evidence either way more just asking about your experiences and opinion.
    Hi Shaun, yes I have a few things to say, neither statistical nor performance based / evidenced, just from a general point of view.
    I will do that as soon as I settle back in Melbourne. Cheers!
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  12. #27
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    I found a similar pattern in the early 90s! But that was all done on paper, unfortunately. However this is from 2003 (with data originally provided by Bill, I believe). It's a bit hard to read, but Qld is the top graph and NSW the bottom one, with the horizontal scale being the same in both.
    An up to date comparison.
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    Last edited by Bill Gletsos; 28-01-2021 at 06:17 PM. Reason: Fixed legend on QLD
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  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos View Post
    An up to date comparison.
    Thanks for these. It's good to have two independent analyses.

    The 2000 and 2020 plots seem fairly similar - but the 2003 one is rather different.

  14. #29
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    Thanks for these. It's good to have two independent analyses.

    The 2000 and 2020 plots seem fairly similar - but the 2003 one is rather different.
    I'm not sure they are independent as your post #13 is based on graphs I provided.

    The 2000 graph includes the original 150 point uplift.
    In 2004 the 150 point uplift was removed and replaced with a variable uplift based on activity between 1980-1999 (as mentioned in ACF bulletin 276) and all periods were rerun from December 2000 prior to the September 2004 list.
    The 2003 graph relects the above change and is why it is different from the 2003 graph in your post #13.

    In March 2011 we implemented another change and all periods from December 2000 until December 2010 were rerun (as noted when the March 2011 ratings were published).
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  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos View Post
    I'm not sure they are independent as your post #13 is based on graphs I provided.
    But the graphs in my original post (#1) were independent of yours. They both used (more or less) the same data set, of course, but the binning was different.

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