View Poll Results: Who will win? (Pick your three favourites)

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  • Ding - LOST FINAL

    9 64.29%
  • Giri - OUT

    0 0%
  • Vachier-Lagrave - OUT

    6 42.86%
  • So - OUT

    1 7.14%
  • Nepomniachtchi - OUT

    4 28.57%
  • Aronian - OUT

    3 21.43%
  • Mamedyarov - OUT

    4 28.57%
  • Dominguez - OUT

    0 0%
  • Grischuk - OUT

    2 14.29%
  • Radjabov - WINNER

    1 7.14%
  • Artemiev - OUT

    0 0%
  • Yu Yangyi - OUT

    0 0%
  • Karjakin - OUT

    2 14.29%
  • Nakamura - OUT

    1 7.14%
  • Andreikin - OUT

    0 0%
  • Wojtaszek - OUT

    0 0%
  • Harikrishna - OUT

    0 0%
  • Duda - OUT

    0 0%
  • Svidler - OUT

    0 0%
  • Vitiugov - OUT

    0 0%
  • Wei Yi - OUT

    1 7.14%
  • Le Quang Liem - OUT

    0 0%
  • Navara - OUT

    0 0%
  • Bu - OUT

    0 0%
  • Wang Hao - OUT

    0 0%
  • Shankland - OUT

    0 0%
  • Adams - OUT

    0 0%
  • Gelfand - OUT

    0 0%
  • Press - OUT

    0 0%
  • Other (name in thread)

    0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #61
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    I mean that the player who had White in game 1 won 58 of the matches and the player who had Black in game 1 won 69. So that particular World Cup (2017) was consistent with the idea that it is better to have Black first (which is what the commentators were saying) but it is not enough evidence to prove it, as such a difference could easily arise by chance.
    Thank you for the clarification. If measuring for evidence here, I think also what would need to be taken into account is where the white wins and black wins occurred.

    Did a lot of black wins in game 1 occur between players who were rated far apart ie 1 v 128, 1 v 64 etc vs 64 v 65?

  2. #62
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    In 2015 players with white in game 1 also won 58 matches vs 69 for players who were black in game 1.

    In 2011 however players with white in game 1 won 66 matches vs 62 for players who were black in game 1. (There was a 3rd-4th playoff so it sums to 128 not 127.)

    Haven't found results by round with colours for 2013 yet. Found 2011 and 2015 on The Week In Chess.

    So so far from combined 2011, 2015, 2017 and 2019 (to date) matches the player with black in game 1 has won 258 matches (52.2%) and the player with white in game 1 has won 236 (47.8%)

    It might look like a real difference but on that sample size it is not statistically significant. 55% to 45% off such a sample size would start to mean something.

    If I can find enough data that it becomes statistically significant then I'll look at what drives it (and whether it is what the commentators say or not) but until then I won't bother.

    Actually what the commentators said is totally inconsistent with what has generally been said about World Championships. In World Championship matches they flip who has white first in each pair of games halfway through. The perception there is that it is easier to have white in the first game of each pair, because people think that it is harder for a player to win with white the day after a long and difficult defence than when they are fresh coming off a rest day.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 21-09-2019 at 09:36 PM.

  3. #63
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Xiong wins on demand convincingly against Duda with the good ol' Bishops Opening. Great preparation.

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    Dominguez also back. Nepo, Svidler and So are all out and Ding currently trying to hold on.

  4. #64
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ER View Post
    You are spot on regarding this chief. Particularly this guy Trent or whatever his name is has reached the pits with his silly jokes, cat calls, singing even ridiculing Clapton's song about his dead son (Tears in Heaven)!
    The commentary I was referring to was from what I assume is now Fide's official youtube channel for live broadcasts. Fide chess.

  5. #65
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Actually what the commentators said is totally inconsistent with what has generally been said about World Championships. In World Championship matches they flip who has white first in each pair of games halfway through. The perception there is that it is easier to have white in the first game of each pair, because people think that it is harder for a player to win with white the day after a long and difficult defence than when they are fresh coming off a rest day.
    I can see a difference between the two formats and why the commentary of colour importance could be different.

    In World Championship match- It is WB rest day WB rest day WB rest day BW rest day BW rest day and so forth. Therefore, one player always gets white after the rest day.

    In the World Cup format, it is possible to go, white black (tiebreak possible too, so no rest day for you), then you get black white in the next round. So a player can end up with two whites or two blacks in a row across the 'rest day'.

  6. #66
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    Nepo and Grishuk both managed to lose dominant positions.
    Interested in Chess Lessons?
    Email webbaron!@gmail.com for more Info!

  7. #67
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    Interested in Chess Lessons?
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  8. #68
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator View Post
    The commentary I was referring to was from what I assume is now Fide's official youtube channel for live broadcasts. Fide chess.
    yeah I got it... I was referring to chess24!
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  9. #69
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    all my picks are still there fighting!
    All three will play tiebreaks tonight!
    Go Ding, go Alexander, go Mame!!!
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  10. #70
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Radjabov eliminates Mamedyarov!

  11. #71
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Nobody still has three picks in play in the poll after that.

  12. #72
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Great effort Xiong to knock out Duda.

    Quarter finals (not sure re colours)

    Ding vs Grischuk
    Vitiugov vs Yu
    Xiong vs Radjabov
    Vachier-Lagrave vs Aronian

    At least one player with no votes in the poll will make the semi-finals, possibly two!

  13. #73
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Nobody still has three picks in play in the poll after that.
    I have two, however they play each other in the q/f.
    That establishes that I will have one of my picks in the s/f and 25% chance
    (that's ceteris paribus of course) of making the final.
    All in all it looks like a great tournament and the fact that it will produce two candidates for the WCC
    was a sound decision! Not sure if that was always the case!
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  14. #74
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Credit to MVL and Aronian for managing to draw their second game such that on move 31 there was an exactly symmetrical position with black to move.

  15. #75
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    as I noted in the climate warming thread looks like these guys are doing a Magnus
    and play for draws so they can shoot it out in the rapids, blitzes and Armageddons. They either underestimate
    their preparation of overestimate that of their opponents...
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