View Poll Results: WHO WILL WIN? (THIS POLL ASKS WHO WILL WIN, NOT WHO DO YOU WANT TO WIN)

Voters
12. You may not vote on this poll
  • Coalition by >30 seats

    0 0%
  • Coalition by 16-30 seats

    0 0%
  • Coalition by 15 or fewer seats [CORRECT]

    4 33.33%
  • Hung parliament

    0 0%
  • Labor by 15 or fewer seats

    6 50.00%
  • Labor by 16-30 seats

    1 8.33%
  • Labor by >30 seats

    1 8.33%
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  1. #511
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    The Coalition's 'retiree tax': "He rejected a question pointing out that the Coalition had spent an election campaign slamming Labor for a “retiree tax” at the same time as over estimating the income of pensioners via deeming rates."

  2. #512
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    The Coalition's 'retiree tax': "He rejected a question pointing out that the Coalition had spent an election campaign slamming Labor for a “retiree tax” at the same time as over estimating the income of pensioners via deeming rates."
    My deeming rate is being reduced to 1%, which is now a little less than my savings rate.

  3. #513
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    Leaving it until the last minute, there have been three challenges to the results of the election:
    Michael Staindl, a resident of Kooyong, filed a petition on Wednesday alleging the treasurer and deputy Liberal leader is disqualified by section 44(1) of the constitution because he is a citizen of Hungary, which Frydenberg denies. The allegation on the final day for petitions to be filed against the 2019 election results came on top of two challenges against Liberal MP Gladys Liu in Chisholm and Frydenberg over Chinese language signs that told voters “the correct voting method” was to put a “1” next to the Liberal candidate.
    Liu may be in trouble if a by-election is triggered, but Frydenberg should be safe.

  4. #514
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/201...ten-cause.html
    Did A Late Switch-Off From Shorten Cause Labor To Lose?
    Spoiler: Nope.
    My take on the ANU vote-switching study and some claims being made about it.

  5. #515
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/201...ten-cause.html
    Did A Late Switch-Off From Shorten Cause Labor To Lose?
    Spoiler: Nope.
    My take on the ANU vote-switching study and some claims being made about it.
    Given that the polls were wrong for all this time, was Turnbull rolled for being behind in the polls when he wsan't? Was Abbott? Or was it not that long.
    meep meep

  6. #516
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by road runner View Post
    Given that the polls were wrong for all this time, was Turnbull rolled for being behind in the polls when he wsan't? Was Abbott? Or was it not that long.
    It's unclear but the national polls were correct in 2013 and 2016, so I suspect that the polls went astray after the switch from Turnbull to Morrison and I suspect that the particular reason for that is that apathetic voters broke strongly for Morrison while educated/politically engaged voters broke to Labor. Whether the polls went wrong immediately on the switch of leaders, or only during the campaign, or some mix of the two I don't know - suspect the latter.

  7. #517
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    Quote Originally Posted by road runner View Post
    Given that the polls were wrong for all this time, was Turnbull rolled for being behind in the polls when he wsan't? Was Abbott? Or was it not that long.
    Mr. Turnbull declared that the Longman by-election should be seen as a referendum between himself and Mr. Shorten. Following the loss of Longman, the parliamentary wing of his party decided that enough was enough. He had claimed personal electoral popularity as one of the reasons he should be given the job. Following the loss of (I think) 14 seats at the 2016 election, and the subsequent loss of almost 40 Newspolls in a row, and the broader results of those 'Super-Saturday' by-elections, he showed all his natural flair for politics by spilling the leadership. Mr. Turnbull was quite popular with those who never vote for the coalition, but for coalition voters he was as popular as he had been as Head Prefect of Sydney Grammar (when another Sydney Grammar Old Boy - Billy McMahon - was leading the country).

  8. #518
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    Quote Originally Posted by idledim View Post
    ... Mr. Turnbull was quite popular with those who never vote for the coalition, but for coalition voters he was as popular as he had been as Head Prefect of Sydney Grammar (when another Sydney Grammar Old Boy - Billy McMahon - was leading the country).
    He was obviously popular enough with Coalition voters to win the 2016 election.

  9. #519
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    He was obviously popular enough with Coalition voters to win the 2016 election.
    Disliking the Head Prefect doesn't always result in the good burghers of Vaucluse and Point Piper sending their children to Summerhill!

  10. #520
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    It's unclear but the national polls were correct in 2013 and 2016, so I suspect that the polls went astray after the switch from Turnbull to Morrison and I suspect that the particular reason for that is that apathetic voters broke strongly for Morrison while educated/politically engaged voters broke to Labor. Whether the polls went wrong immediately on the switch of leaders, or only during the campaign, or some mix of the two I don't know - suspect the latter.
    Thanks yes that makes sense.
    meep meep

  11. #521
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    ... and I suspect that the particular reason for that is that apathetic voters broke strongly for Morrison while educated/politically engaged voters broke to Labor..
    Fabulous. It’s this type of assessment underpinning Labor strategy and tea leaf reading which has fed into Labor winning just one federal election in the past quarter of a century. Not counting the extra run they picked up with the 3 amigos.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  12. #522
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    Quote Originally Posted by Basil View Post
    Fabulous. It’s this type of assessment underpinning Labor strategy and tea leaf reading which has fed into Labor winning just one federal election in the past quarter of a century. Not counting the extra run they picked up with the 3 amigos.
    Which doesn't mean that what Kevin (who is not a Labor strategist - as far as I know!) said isn't true, of course.

  13. #523
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    To clarify, what I suspect is that both tertiary-educated voters and politics junkies (who are basically the same people) broke to Labor by more compared to other voters than they usually do (partly because of climate change concerns and partly because this PM doesn't speak their language), and that pollsters over-sampled these highly engaged voters and failed to control their samples for it. The other main possibility is that the final polls were simply nonsense and they were all just copying each other and their own previous polls.

    I wasn't expressing a preference - generally I don't care who wins so long as it isn't (i) Abbott types or (ii) preference-gaming micro-parties.

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