View Poll Results: WHO WILL WIN? (THIS POLL ASKS WHO WILL WIN, NOT WHO DO YOU WANT TO WIN)

Voters
12. You may not vote on this poll
  • Coalition by >30 seats

    0 0%
  • Coalition by 16-30 seats

    0 0%
  • Coalition by 15 or fewer seats [CORRECT]

    4 33.33%
  • Hung parliament

    0 0%
  • Labor by 15 or fewer seats

    6 50.00%
  • Labor by 16-30 seats

    1 8.33%
  • Labor by >30 seats

    1 8.33%
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  1. #391
    CC Grandmaster antichrist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron View Post
    May be they decided not to have the sizzle to please the Vegans
    I think the vegans became the sizzle result-wise.
    Zionism is racism as defined by the UN, Israel by every dirty means available steals land and water, kill Palestinian freedom fighters and civilians, and operates an apartheid system to drive more Palestinians off their land

  2. #392
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antichrist View Post
    Real people yeah but who would you define as unreal people?
    most listed above!

    Are chess nerds real?
    I 'll let you know when I see the outcome of their parallel universe elections!

    There is a lop-sidedness in Oz electorates due to your parents and mine over-indulging under the blankets 70 years ago creating the Baby Boom.
    Well, at least I hope they had a good time!

    We are the obstinate and unresponsible tail, at end of our lives,
    clarification urgently needed! did you mean irresponsible? unresponsive?

    swinging the thinner dog that still has generations to live and survive.
    Your message is loud and clear, however I can't really elaborate on this due to COI,

    There is not chance of such repeat with the likes of you and barren Baron.
    Better leave Baron out of this! He's a baby in comparison, besides he is entirely self made!
    ACF 3118316
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  3. #393
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    Have you forgotten already what usually happens afterwards in these cases

  4. #394
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Coalition should win a majority, but it's not completely certain yet. Sharma should win Wentworth which is 75, and then one more for a majority and two more for a floor majority.

    Excellent things from this result:

    * Tony Abbott loses
    * Tony Smith can continue as Speaker
    * Fraser Anning gone
    * Coalition doesn't control the Senate

  5. #395
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    Quote Originally Posted by antichrist View Post
    Shorten is lucky he did not visit my rich and tough sister's household mouthing banning franking credits - his head may have left his shoulders like in that terrorist foto.
    Some say, it is the credits that lost him election! And its good!
    Interested in Chess Lessons?
    Email webbaron!@gmail.com for more Info!

  6. #396
    CC Grandmaster antichrist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron View Post
    Some say, it is the credits that lost him election! And its good!
    Shorten has less political nouse than Dr. Hewson and we all know what happened to him. I couldn't believe what I was hearing on some issues that effected the middle class and I don't even follow Oz politics anymore. Those credit changes would have cost my sis tens of thousands of dollars and they don't get one cent of pension etc..
    Zionism is racism as defined by the UN, Israel by every dirty means available steals land and water, kill Palestinian freedom fighters and civilians, and operates an apartheid system to drive more Palestinians off their land

  7. #397
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    An important factor at this election was mining. Labor got smashed in a lot of places where mining was an issue. Nearly lost Hunter to One Nation or the Nationals. Seen the same dynamic in Tasmania over forestry. Annoying powerful industry groups and their workers so you can fight the Greens in inner-city seats aint worth it.

  8. #398
    CC Candidate Master Blunderbuss's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    An important factor at this election was mining. Labor got smashed in a lot of places where mining was an issue. Nearly lost Hunter to One Nation or the Nationals. Seen the same dynamic in Tasmania over forestry. Annoying powerful industry groups and their workers so you can fight the Greens in inner-city seats aint worth it.
    Frank Jotzo of the ANU sums it up nicely for me: Coal is not the future

    Tony Abbott put the finger on it in his concession speech after losing his seat in parliament. “Where climate change is a moral issue we Liberals do it tough. But where climate change is an economic issue we do very well,” said the man who gained the prime ministership by stoking fear about a carbon tax. In electorates that are not affluent, fear about cuts to income are potent.
    Last edited by Blunderbuss; 20-05-2019 at 10:24 AM. Reason: highlight quote

  9. #399
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    another victory for cynical politics. i doubt most coalition voters could name 3 coalition policies or 3 coalition front benchers. great business investment by clive-50 mill well spent. will he pay his ex workers now or will scomo let him off. our electoral system needs an overhaul. NZ did it 20yrs ago and has produced better more reponsive and representative government since.

  10. #400
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    An important factor at this election was mining. Labor got smashed in a lot of places where mining was an issue. Nearly lost Hunter to One Nation or the Nationals. Seen the same dynamic in Tasmania over forestry. Annoying powerful industry groups and their workers so you can fight the Greens in inner-city seats aint worth it.
    John Roskam (IPA) has been saying this for months. Following the loss of Wentworth last year, he observed: Wentworth isn't Australia. A fortnight ago he said:
    Six Seats Are Wagging The Coalition Dog

    It's not just mining and forestry, though. Bob Brown and his ute-driving posse of greenies also deserve some credit for the election result in Queensland.

    The question now for the ALP is whether they can escape from this self-imposed prison. Albanese is of the left, but is also pro-business; Chalmers is a Queenslander and represents generational change, but is probably a better bet, at least for now, as Deputy Dog; Plibersek is a woman - but is also very closely tied to the policies that have just been rejected; Bowen is apparently a chess player, but his comments to retirees was our equivalent of Clinton's 'deplorables' moment; Fitzgibbon lacks factional support.

    If the ALP are serious about reclaiming the centre they need to disavow identity politics, approve Adani, abandon their uncosted flirtation with the Green-Left climate agenda and commit to a rise in the Newstart allowance. It should also abandon any plans to arbitrarily increase the wages of one section of the labour market. An Albanese -Chalmers ticket is their best chance of doing that.

    As for Morrison? To begin with: he should adopt the ALP's dentistry policy; protect religious freedom; and see if there's any way of getting us out of Pyne's stupid submarine purchases - or if that's not possible, at least allowing them to be nuclear.

    EDIT: Tanya Plibersek has now confirmed she will not contest the Labor leadership.
    Last edited by idledim; 20-05-2019 at 04:42 PM.

  11. #401
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    If the 2PP remains about where it is - 50.87 - 49.13 - then this election will have been the 12th. election since 1950 where the margin was 51-49 or smaller. In every single case, those 12 tight elections have been won by the govt. of the day.

    The record will also show that the ALP has still never won an election without the editorial support of The Australian - Mr. Murdoch having supported Mr. Whitlam in 1972, Mr. Hawke in 1983, and Mr. Rudd in 2007.

    By failing to appear on Alan Jones’s show, Mr. Shorten also preserved one of radio’s longest-standing records for Australia’s best-known radio broadcaster.

    As Jones proudly told Diary yesterday: “Whether they like it or not, in 34 years of broadcasting no one has ever won an election by boycotting my program.”
    (The Australian)
    Last edited by idledim; 20-05-2019 at 03:46 PM.

  12. #402
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by idledim View Post
    If the 2PP remains about where it is - 50.87 - 49.13 - then this election will have been the 12th. election since 1950 where the margin was 51-49 or smaller. In every single case, those 12 tight elections have been won by the govt. of the day.
    It probably won't. A number of seats are excluded from the 2PP for now because the final two candidates are not expected to be Labor vs Coalition. When these are added (which will take a long time) the 2PP should rise. My election-night estimate was 51.6, but I haven't tried to model it again since then.

  13. #403
    CC Grandmaster Garrett's Avatar
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    You made the AFR Kevin.
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  14. #404
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    Quote Originally Posted by idledim View Post
    ... If the ALP are serious about reclaiming the centre they need to disavow identity politics, approve Adani, abandon their uncosted flirtation with the Green-Left climate agenda and commit to a rise in the Newstart allowance. It should also abandon any plans to arbitrarily increase the wages of one section of the labour market. An Albanese -Chalmers ticket is their best chance of doing that.
    Of course it's not only the 'Green-Left' who are pointing out the dangers of increasing the level of carbon dioxide - by approving Adani, for example - it's also the scientists.

  15. #405
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    Quote Originally Posted by guruduff View Post
    another victory for cynical politics. i doubt most coalition voters could name 3 coalition policies or 3 coalition front benchers. great business investment by clive-50 mill well spent. will he pay his ex workers now or will scomo let him off. our electoral system needs an overhaul. NZ did it 20yrs ago and has produced better more reponsive and representative government since.
    Parties that cling on to power with cynical campaigns tend to get annihilated at the next election.

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