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  1. #1
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Tasmanian top ten active players 1997 - present

    This is just something I've been curious about for a while - having a look at changes in the Tasmanian top ten active ratings over time. Hope Tassie posters in particular find it interesting but any comments, feedback etc welcome.

    The data I've used are the ACF active lists as stored on Barry's website. I've used the top ten player orders exactly as they appear there except for crediting David Small to the Tasmanian list as soon as he started playing here again (one period earlier than his actual appearance) and disregarding Michael Rolph who has not lived in the state for many years. I'm aware that in some cases, because of retrospective system revisions and so on, there might be slight differences between what is on Barry's site and what is now held as past player ratings, but they shouldn't affect anything too much.

    A total of 38 lists are used from April 1999 to Sep 2009. Three per year for 1999-2002 and four per year thereafter. The only list issued I haven't used was a transitional one issued one November which showed very little change for most leading Tas players.

    In the following table:

    HP = Highest position in top ten
    L#1 = Number of lists on which #1
    WP = Worst position in top ten
    LI = Number of lists in top ten
    Av = Average position in top ten when in it.

    So it can be seen, for instance, that I am the only one who has been in the top ten for every single rating list, but my average position when in the list is about fourth, whereas most of the others who have been #1 have typically been in the top three when on the active list at all.

    Top players will often play one tournament then become inactive and stay on the list in a high position until they fall off it for inactivity. That is one reason why everyone who has been #5 or higher has been on at least five lists, although some (eg Fearnley-Sander) have only actually played one tournament in the period in question.

    Code:
    	         HP	L#1	WP	LI	AV
    Sakov		1	8	5	21	2.52
    Dowden		1	7	3	15	1.67
    Bemrose		1	5	3	7	1.43
    Small		1	5	1	5	1
    Hornung		1	3	6	12	2.83
    Markovitz	         1	3	3	9	2
    Wagg		1	3	2	6	1.5
    Bonham		1	2	8	38	3.84
    Knight		1	2	10	31	4.9
    Pavicic		2	0	9	25	5.92
    Oriol		2	0	6	9	4.11
    Fearnley-Sander	2	0	3	5	2.8
    Gibbs		3	0	10	24	7.29
    Todd		3	0	9	15	6.13
    Rezaie		3	0	10	15	6.6
    Lucas		3	0	6	14	5.29
    Billam		3	0	6	10	4.6
    Frame		4	0	10	28	8.5
    Kacic		4	0	10	20	6.95
    Premilovac	4	0	9	13	6.15
    Rothlisberger	5	0	9	13	7.15
    Dyer		6	0	9	6	7
    Chadwick	         7	0	10	17	9.24
    Steward		7	0	9	4	8
    Djekanovic	7	0	8	2	7.5
    Stubbs		8	0	8	1	8
    Radosavljevic	9	0	10	5	9.8
    Harvey		9	0	9	3	9
    George		9	0	9	1	9
    Donnelly	         10	0	10	4	10
    Hannon		10	0	10	1	10
    M Bretag	         10	0	10	1	10
    Both the cutoff point for the list and the average rating of the list move about from list to list as players gain and lose points, enter the list, leave it through inactivity etc. However, there is a general trend of decline over time in both the average of the list and the rating of whoever is #10 at any particular time. The exception to this trend is when there are substantial uplifts to the ratings pool. I have shown these on the graph below.

    The current list is the first time since the 150 point uplift that Tasmania has not had ten active 1700+ players. Three of the current top ten have not played a rated game in over a year so it is possible the shortage of high-rated players will become more acute in the future.

    The current Tassie top ten is Small, Dowden, Markovitz, Bonham, Knight, Dyer, Steward, Pavicic, Frame, Chadwick.



    PS: If anyone can resize the graph .jpg without it looking awful, feel free to post a resized version and I'll delete this one which is over-width.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 01-09-2009 at 02:48 AM.

  2. #2
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    That's a very interesting comparative work and I will take some time to go through it.
    opssss I deleted my remark about ratings since it was made before I had seen the second graph!
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  3. #3
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    There has been a shakeup in the Tassie top ten in the June 2010 list. Two players (Knight and Pavicic) dropped off for inactivity while heavy points losses for many players in the Tasmanian championships have meant that Tony Dowden resumes the #1 position despite shedding 23 points.

    The rating of the state #1 (1984), the average of the top ten ratings (1816, down 54 points since last list) and the #10 rating (1670) are all now at their lowest levels since the 150-point uplift in 2000. Indeed since then the average rating at the pointy end is down by 110 points despite the 70-point uplift for FIDE parity.

    Are we really all getting that bad? Perhaps we are ...

    The current Tassie top ten is Dowden, Dyer, Small, Steward, Markovitz, Bonham, Frame, Chadwick, Hendrey (first time entry) and Rezaie.

  4. #4
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Following the release of the substantially rerun ratings the average increase for the Tassie top ten is 75 points taking the average for the top ten to 1888. The last time the average was that high (pre-rerun) was June 2008. The average of the top ten averages for lists from the 70 point uplift (March 2004) until June 2008 was also 1888. It's possible that deflation at the top end of the Tassie pool has mainly happened in the last 3 years, although changes in players contributing to it also need to be considered.

    Anyway the current top 10 is Dowden, Dyer, Steward, Small, Markovitz, Bonham, Frame, Chadwick, T Hendrey and M Bretag. Last two tied for 9th.

  5. #5
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    I could do a better job if you send me the spreadsheet or a vector image of the graph. But just resizing the jpeg which already has some compression artifacts is not going to look as good. But here is what it looks like at 600 pixels wide.
    Attached Images Attached Images
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  6. #6
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    With David Small now off the list for inactivity we now have both Bretags in the top ten for the first time (and I believe at least one of them might be playing again pretty soon!)

    The current Tasmanian top ten is Dowden, Dyer, Steward, Markovitz, Bonham, Chadwick, Frame, M Bretag, Donnelly and L Bretag.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    With David Small now off the list for inactivity we now have both Bretags in the top ten for the first time (and I believe at least one of them might be playing again pretty soon!)

    The current Tasmanian top ten is Dowden, Dyer, Steward, Markovitz, Bonham, Chadwick, Frame, M Bretag, Donnelly and L Bretag.
    Denis McMahon moved from WA to Tas a year or so ago. I know he played and did well in a quick play in Tas, but I'm not sure if he has played any rated games. He has rating of 1761! - the same figure as M Bretag.

    Former Tas player Jon Chandler 1742 has started well in the WA Metro Club Championship 'B' division - he is on 2.5/3. Cross-tables and games of the 52 players are available from http://metrochessclub.org.au

  8. #8
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rob
    Denis McMahon moved from WA to Tas a year or so ago. I know he played and did well in a quick play in Tas, but I'm not sure if he has played any rated games.
    He has - he played six rated games when he tied for first in the Tas Open last year. Probably he should now be transferred to Tas on the ratings list - initially I think there was doubt about how long he would be here.

    I was wondering where Chandler had suddenly reappeared on the list from!

  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Kevin and Denis



    Bonham (left), and McMahon (right) pondering their next moves during last year's Tasmanian Open in Hobart. The two players eventually tied for first! Photo: Elliott Renzies (from the Chess Players Collection)
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  10. #10
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    OMG, where is Kevin gone?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaK


    Bonham (left), and McMahon (right) pondering their next moves during last year's Tasmanian Open in Hobart. The two players eventually tied for first! Photo: Elliott Renzies (from the Chess Players Collection)

    Where's the long haired, death metal t-shirt wearing dude I met in Sydney?
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  11. #11
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunderspirit
    Where's the long haired, death metal t-shirt wearing dude I met in Sydney?
    Haha. It would have been a goth band t-shirt. Unfortunately most of my favourite goth bands are long defunct and hence no longer producing t-shirts. As for the hair, it's still quite long at the back.

  12. #12
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    I've finally, and not before time, been bumped off #1 in the Tassie rapid ratings - Neil Markovitz's easy win of the HICC Open Rapid was good for 2248? to my 2197!!

    The main-list Tassie top ten is now Dowden, Dyer, Steward, Markovitz, Bonham, Chadwick, Frame, M Bretag, Nagy (new entry) and Donnelly but I think Steward will drop off the active list next period. #1 to #2 = 2 points.

  13. #13
    CC Grandmaster Tony Dowden's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    ... we now have both Bretags in the top ten for the first time (and I believe at least one of them might be playing again pretty soon!)
    Yes indeed, I had 8-10 blitz games with the more locquacious of the two in the uni caf in Lonnie at lunchtime on Tuesday. Haven't had the luxury of lunchtime blitz for more than 10 years
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    "You must take your opponent into a deep dark forest where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one." - Mikhail Tal
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  14. #14
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    The new Tasmanian top ten is Dowden, Dyer, Markovitz, Bonham, Frame, Chadwick, Nagy, Donnelly, MacMahon, Russell Horton. The last four are all in their highest ever positions.

  15. #15
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Alastair Dyer has become the #1 listed "Tasmanian" player for the first time (although he has been interstate for the last two years studying). He takes over from Tony Dowden who is still on the Tas list but who we expect to be moved to the Qld list next time.

    Rod Macfarlan appears in the list for the first time after an outstanding result in the HICC Champs.

    The Tassie top ten is Dyer, Dowden, Markovitz, Bonham, Chadwick, Frame, Nagy, Donnelly, Macfarlan and Macmahon.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 01-12-2012 at 01:45 AM.

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