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  1. #451
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron View Post
    And yes, Majority of the HK still see themselves as part of China of course and are rather disturbed by the protesters.
    Is there any polling-based or other remotely reliable evidence of this?

    This poll series, which is the successor to a poll that has been accused of bias (what poll hasn't) but that was very accurate at the last election, suggests otherwise:

    https://www.pori.hk/pori_release20190813_eng

    (And before you object that polls were wrong in cases like Aus 2019, Brexit and Trump, they were only out by a few points nationwide in those cases, nothing like the effect sizes being reported here.)
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 15-08-2019 at 09:09 AM.

  2. #452
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Is there any polling-based or other remotely reliable evidence of this?

    This poll series, which is the successor to a poll that has been accused of bias (what poll hasn't) but that was very accurate at the last election, suggests otherwise:

    https://www.pori.hk/pori_release20190813_eng

    (And before you object that polls were wrong in cases like Aus 2019, Brexit and Trump, they were only out by a few points nationwide in those cases, nothing like the effect sizes being reported here.)
    I think it is important to draw the line between a specific issue (extradiction) and separation from China.
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  3. #453
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron View Post
    I think it is important to draw the line between a specific issue (extradiction) and separation from China.
    Separation is not and never has been an issue. Not gonna happen

  4. #454
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron View Post
    I think it is important to draw the line between a specific issue (extradiction) and separation from China.
    Let's do that then. You say the majority are "rather disturbed by the protestors". You've cited no evidence for this. The poll link I gave found that 58% thought police had used too much force against the protestors, and that 71% thought the government was among the forces most to blame for the situation (71% included the government, 35% included the protestors, 25% included the police - multiple answers were allowed). If barely over a third think the protestors are among those most to blame (not even necessarily the most to blame), that's hardly consistent with the majority being "rather disturbed" by them.

  5. #455
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Murray View Post
    Separation is not and never has been an issue. Not gonna happen
    So the question is..are the demonstration anti-Chinese or anti specific law?
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  6. #456
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Let's do that then. You say the majority are "rather disturbed by the protestors". You've cited no evidence for this. The poll link I gave found that 58% thought police had used too much force against the protestors, and that 71% thought the government was among the forces most to blame for the situation (71% included the government, 35% included the protestors, 25% included the police - multiple answers were allowed). If barely over a third think the protestors are among those most to blame (not even necessarily the most to blame), that's hardly consistent with the majority being "rather disturbed" by them.
    It does not mean they support the protesters. It means they feel protests should have been handled lighter.
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  7. #457
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron View Post
    It does not mean they support the protesters.
    Sure, but you said they were "rather disturbed by the protestors", which is a much stronger claim than that they may not support them. Just because one does not support a protest does not mean one finds it disturbing.

  8. #458
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron View Post
    So the question is..are the demonstration anti-Chinese or anti specific law?
    Both, but there is much more to it than such a simplistic choice.

    ...On Hong Kong's streets, protesters are demanding an independent investigation into police brutality; a permanent retraction of the extradition law to China which served as the impetus of the more than three months of protest so far; the resignation of Hong Kong's non-elected leader Carrie Lam; and universal suffrage to choose a new leader....
    https://www.weaa.org/post/hong-kong-...inous#stream/0

  9. #459
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Beijing is moving to stamp out the Hong Kong protests – but it may have already lost the city for good
    The Conversation
    15.8.19

    Since the start of mass demonstrations in Hong Kong in early June, there has been a significant escalation of Beijing’s rhetoric and tactics. Instead of addressing the root causes of the public anger, Beijing has demonised the protesters and threatened to suppress them with its military.

    Beijing’s shrill rhetoric, misinformation campaigns, and blatant threats have galvanised resistance in what has fast become a volatile situation. The crisis doesn’t appear to be dissipating. And things are going to come to a head very soon....

  10. #460
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Murray View Post
    Both, but there is much more to it than such a simplistic choice.

    ...On Hong Kong's streets, protesters are demanding an independent investigation into police brutality; a permanent retraction of the extradition law to China which served as the impetus of the more than three months of protest so far; the resignation of Hong Kong's non-elected leader Carrie Lam; and universal suffrage to choose a new leader....
    https://www.weaa.org/post/hong-kong-...inous#stream/0
    This is a different matter.
    Re Demanding resignation of C.Lam again - some are supporting her!
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  11. #461
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelBaron View Post
    This is a different matter.
    Re Demanding resignation of C.Lam again - some are supporting her!
    Different from what? They are the demands of the protestors. Separation was never included - I don't know where you got that idea. So what else do you think the protests are trying to achieve?

  12. #462
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Last edited by Ian Murray; 17-08-2019 at 02:06 PM.

  13. #463
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    China's ambition knows no bounds and we're finding out the hard way
    ABC News
    23.8.19

    ... The ANU has been the target of two significant cyber hacks. The most recent, revealed in June this year, was horrendous; the records of an estimated 200,000 past and present staff and students over two decades were pilfered, including banking details, passport and tax file numbers and other sensitive data.

    The cyber assault was highly sophisticated, conducted by so-called "spear-phishing" malware that didn't require anything to be clicked on or opened.

    China is believed to have been the culprit....

  14. #464
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Like ‘shooting water’: why the Hong Kong government must accept that compromise is the only way forward
    The Conversation
    27.8.19

    The Hong Kong protest movement is not deescalating – nor will it. Having battled for 12 weeks, this multi-million-person movement has lasted much longer than the unsuccessful 79-day Umbrella protests in 2014.

    This is because protesters believe this is their last chance to protect the “one country, two systems” model that came into effect after Hong Kong’s 1997 handover to China and also expand the scope of the democracy in the city.

    Yet, despite the enormous, peaceful marches, along with the more militant protesters who have shut down the airport and engaged in repeated battles with police, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has remained unmoved.

    This dynamic is hard for Western governments to understand. If these protests were happening in a democratic society, the government would likely seek to enter into concession bargaining with the protesters, knowing that compromise and negotiation are core strategies for deescalating tensions. ...

    The internet is wild with rumours about “another Tiananmen”. And, in many ways, that is the purpose of the tanks on the border. Their presence provokes great fear. It raises the stakes for any protester.

    This kind of fear also circulated during the Umbrella movement. I interviewed many protest leaders back then who said they went to the streets prepared to die for Hong Kong.

    That said, a military incursion in a place as large as Hong Kong would be gravely difficult. Making it even more challenging is the fact it is hard to shoot water, which is akin to taking aim at a guerrilla army instead of people standing in a square. ...

    No one knows what will happen in Hong Kong - not the government, not Beijing, not the protesters. The fluid dynamic of the protests is unprecedented.

    The protesters are young, but highly experienced after having participated in the 2014 Umbrella movement. They are also motivated to continue fighting for what they believe is the future of their city.

    Lam has deeply underestimated their momentum and the enormous levels of support they have across all segments of society. The protests will not stop until a pathway for a stronger democracy is on the table. Western governments can either help make that pathway happen through diplomatic interventions, or watch as the movement faces increasingly violent repression.

  15. #465
    CC Grandmaster antichrist's Avatar
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    I forecast that all those rich Hong Kongese who moved money into Oz twenty years ago to obtain residency will now take up that option. They may even bring their big money with them. The poorer may come as boat people to be locked up for years on bird poo island. They would love that.
    Zionism is racism as defined by the UN, Israel by every dirty means available steals land and water, kill Palestinian freedom fighters and civilians, and operates an apartheid system to drive more Palestinians off their land

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