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  1. #496
    Batoutahelius road runner's Avatar
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    One of the commentators on Insiders mentioned that due to re-districting of the seats, the Coalition may go into the next election 2-3 seats notionally behind.
    meep meep

  2. #497
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by road runner View Post
    One of the commentators on Insiders mentioned that due to re-districting of the seats, the Coalition may go into the next election 2-3 seats notionally behind.
    It looks like being a notional hung parliament, at any rate.

  3. #498
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Shorten has also set an unwanted record: he's lost Better PM against Turnbull 50 times in a row. The previous record was 47 by Simon Crean against Howard. (It's a record of dubious value because Better PM skews in favour of incumbent Prime Ministers.)

    There are quite a lot of stupid people on Twitter saying the Coalition has now lost 60 Newspolls in a row. This isn't true because there was a 20-Newspoll break between Abbott's 30 and Turnbull's 30. When this is pointed out to them they invariably switch to saying that the Coalition has still lost 60 Newspolls even if they're not all in a row. In fact the Coalition has now lost 69, won 13 and tied 7 since winning the 2013 election.
    The count has to 'in a row' otherwise you could count any number of Newspolls, put them all together and come up with any narrative you want.

    One stat that I did hear in the last few days was that no PM has won an election after losing 10 straight newspolls since Paul Keating in 1993. It was an off the cuff stat I heard and not even sure of the source.

  4. #499
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator View Post
    One stat that I did hear in the last few days was that no PM has won an election after losing 10 straight newspolls since Paul Keating in 1993. It was an off the cuff stat I heard and not even sure of the source.
    It might have originally been me! Newspoll didn't routinely publish 2PPs for all polls but if the primary votes are converted to 2PP then Keating lost 10 in a row in 1992, the most any PM has lost prior to winning an election since Newspoll started in the mid-1980s.

    However not many PMs have lost more than 10 in a row since then so it's not very well tested as a predictive method:

    * Keating in 1993-6 term lost 15 in a row twice, lost the election
    * Howard in 2004-7 term lost 27 in a row, lost the election
    * Gillard in 2010-3 term lost 33 in a row, removed as PM
    * Abbott in 2013-6 term lost 30 in a row, removed as PM

    If old Morgans are used, Whitlam in the 1972-4 term lost 18 in a row, then tied one, then won the election. Fraser in the 1977-80 term lost 16 in a row and later won the election. And Menzies in the 1951-4 term lost 10 in a row but the 10 were spread over two and a half years; he went on to win the election easily. So there are plenty of examples of PMs being behind for a long time during a term and still winning.

  5. #500
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    How many did Howard lose in 2003/2004? And also what about Rudd?

    I am not that concerned about old polling data ie from times of long ago, as the discussion now is mainly about PM's getting the bullet based on bad polls, or using poor polls as one of the reasons for removing a PM.
    Last edited by Garvinator; 10-04-2018 at 11:49 PM.

  6. #501
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator View Post
    How many did Howard lose in 2003/2004? And also what about Rudd?
    In the 1996-8 term Howard's longest losing streak was seven and in the 1998-2001 term it was eight. In the 2001-2004 term it was six, in early 2004. (Howard's Newspoll 2PPs in 2003-4 term were worse than the reality because Newspoll experimented with respondent preferences, an experiment which failed. However he still would have lost six in a row had they not done that.)

    During Rudd's first term in office 2007-10 Rudd lost just one, drew one, and won all the rest (which he has been very keen to point out in recent days!) On his brief return to office after rolling Gillard he tied one and lost eight, including losing the last seven in a row.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 11-04-2018 at 12:23 AM.

  7. #502
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by road runner View Post
    One of the commentators on Insiders mentioned that due to re-districting of the seats, the Coalition may go into the next election 2-3 seats notionally behind.
    Mark Butler's Labor seat of Port Adelaide will disappear, it seems

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